[itsyaboy]

The duopoly is more likely broken by a technology or application of technology we are unaware of - that was never going to be BB10 which was simply 'us too!'

I keep thinking the playing field will change as soon as an operating system can offer one device that can be used as a stand alone device (like a smartphone) but can power up for a full desktop experience with a screen.

But it is probably something else..?

Posted via CB10

[Troy Tiscareno]

It could happen to this terrible duopoy, even if it is far more difficult than years ago. It's what I am hoping for anyway

Much like on the desktop, where MS and Apple have ruled for 35+ years, it's probably not going to change with smartphones either. BUT... some new category of device could come along - much like mobile devices replaced a significant amount of desktop/laptop computing - that replaces a significant portion of smartphone usage - and THAT would give new companies an opportunity over the incumbents. But I wouldn't hold my breath if I was you - I don't see significant change happening in the next decade. Much beyond that and it's just too hard to predict.

[itsyaboy]

Much like on the desktop, where MS and Apple have ruled for 35+ years, it's probably not going to change with smartphones either. BUT... some new category of device could come along - much like mobile devices replaced a significant amount of desktop/laptop computing - that replaces a significant portion of smartphone usage - and THAT would give new companies an opportunity over the incumbents. But I wouldn't hold my breath if I was you - I don't see significant change happening in the next decade. Much beyond that and it's just too hard to predict.

Yeah. What a boring smartphone world.

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Much like on the desktop, where MS and Apple have ruled for 35+ years, it's probably not going to change with smartphones either. BUT... some new category of device could come along - much like mobile devices replaced a significant amount of desktop/laptop computing - that replaces a significant portion of smartphone usage - and THAT would give new companies an opportunity over the incumbents. But I wouldn't hold my breath if I was you - I don't see significant change happening in the next decade. Much beyond that and it's just too hard to predict.

Change is slow.... until you look back at it over your short lifetime.

[abwan11]

The change will come. Everything will be a device of sorts with specific tasks all ported through the Internet, everyone knows this. Does the phone become the controller?, is the question.
The device may not be required. A predictive action that doesn't require constant input seems likely. IOT will develop quickly once it gets off the ground and things will look very different than they are now. If you were to look back on the radio being a starting point of consumer tech, leading to television and then the computer you'll see radio is primitive in comparison to the computer and so will the phone (and it's OS) to what's next.

Posted via CB10

[abwan11]

I'd like to add something to that.

The OS were seeing is just paint on the wall. Everything is moving to the Web. Car and television companies have expressed their disinterest in allowing the elephants head (Apple and the Google) in the door. They'll put up with it until their able to do it their way. Google, Apple and the rest of the tech giants have opened eyes in every other industry and those eyes know what their users information is worth and now everyone what's to be in control of their users.

Posted via CB10

[BeautyEh]

@Troy excellent synopsis. Just curious as a layman why was BBOS not infinitely upgradeable?

Posted via CB10

[DrBoomBotz]

@Troy excellent synopsis. Just curious as a layman why was BBOS not infinitely upgradeable?

Posted via CB10

The device started as a pager and grew as far as it could until technology debt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_debt
made it too gnarly to continue.
A small embedded systems team was driven to get code out the door and they did, but the debt piles up and it gets harder and harder to keep extending the system.
I don't know what the base OS was, but for a project with those humble beginnings it would likely be very primitive.

[Troy Tiscareno]

Excellent reply there.

As DrBoomBotz notes, BBOS began as an OS for 2-way pagers - the original "BlackBerry" - with a fairly limited scope. Only later did the underlying device become an early smartphone - which placed far more demand on the OS with far more features - but needed to maintain backwards compatibility because of everything else that was built off of it (BIS, BES, BB Desktop Manager, third-party apps, etc.). By 2004/2005, developers were already talking about how BBOS's original archetecture was reaching its limits and that at some point soon a major revision was going to need to happen - but again, Mike was unwilling to start work on a new system for fear of disrupting the old one, because the longer he kept getting BIS and BES income, the better for BB, and he knew that he wouldn't be able to justify the need for BIS with a new, modern OS with 3G networking coming online. He also predicted that carriers would be unwilling to update their infrastructure to meet data demands, and therefore the networks would continue to keep data plan rates very high and limit app access to the Internet. If you've ever used a WAP browser on a feature phone, you know how pathetic the experience was.

Of course, by being unwilling to disrupt his existing business model himself, he allowed Apple, and then to a much larger degree Google, to disrupt his business model. That's classic "Founder's Disease."

Here's an image-based metaphor:

A guy starts a band, and needs a vehicle to get his gear around. He buys this, and it meets his needs (as long as it isn't raining):



He does well, and soon interest in his band increases, and he starts booking shows not just in his hometown, but all over the state, and eventually, all over the region. He goes to a dealer who promises to turn his existing truck into a touring vehicle.



But as his band become more and more popular, and his time becomes far more in demand, he has to spend more and more time in the truck, and become more and more productive with the time he spends inside it. Yet, every day it feels more and more confining.

He goes back to the dealer, who upgrades the camper shell, adds a trailer to the back, and a bike rack to the front. He now has a bit more room, but the truck struggles and handles poorly, and he's still not very comfortable. The dealer tells him he can upgrade his trucks suspension, tires, install a larger engine, etc. to try to help. But there's no getting around the fact that the original truck platform just wasn't made to be a tour bus, and no amount of camper shells and trailers would change that.



Then, a new dealer opens up across the street, and they're selling these for the same price as a slightly upgraded camper shell:




As much as he is loyal to his original dealer, who helped him get his start, the original dealer can only offer him a slightly bigger camper shell for his truck - which is clearly no competition to a luxury tour bus...

[LuvULongTime]

IMO, only two things can open up the mobile market to other competitors; 1. The evolution of HTML5 (or some other cross platform standard) and adoption of it as the go to for app development. 2. An innovation in how apps are developed for minor platforms in the market. If BlackBerry could have made BlackBerry 10 development as easy as pumping some requirements into a wizard and watching it spit out almost perfect code it could have helped them with attracting developers. Microsoft is already trying this to a different degree with project Islandwood and Astoria.

[Elephant_Canyon]

IMO, only two things can open up the mobile market to other competitors; 1. The evolution of HTML5 (or some other cross platform standard) and adoption of it as the go to for app development.

That ship appears to have sailed. The abilities of native apps continue to grow on a yearly basis, as HTML5 continues to be adequate as a content delivery platform for the Web, but not really much more.

2. An innovation in how apps are developed for minor platforms in the market. If BlackBerry could have made BlackBerry 10 development as easy as pumping some requirements into a wizard and watching it spit out almost perfect code

So, in other words, magic.

[LuvULongTime]

That ship appears to have sailed. The abilities of native apps continue to grow on a yearly basis, as HTML5 continues to be adequate as a content delivery platform for the Web, but not really much more.


So, in other words, magic.

Magic? By today's standards, yes. But who knows what the future holds for app development? I'm not saying it will ever happen, but what I AM saying is that is what's needed in order for new players to gain entry.

You also cut out the part where I wrote about Microsoft already doing this today to a different degree with Islandwood and Astoria.

[WES51]

Like @Troy Tiscareno said in the beginning, Blackberry has no idea about who their customers are and who to target.

The level of stupidity and arrogance at this company is beyond comprehension.
If someone gave Blackberry company even to a few inexperienced newbies like us, probably even we knew what to do and turn the company around. It is ridiculous.

Millions of diehard Blackberry fans with a healthy supply of money and I can't buy anything from them?

These days, many businesses struggle adopting consumer grade communication devices for business use AND there is nothing Blackberry can offer to these businesses?

Millions of private customers and millions of more of existing and future business customers are not enough market for Blackberry to make money and to turn the company around?

What a bunch of loosers !!!

Blackberry has been a disappointment of a century, an perfect example of how ignorant and stupid management can bring down a business giant.

[DrBoomBotz]

Like @Troy Tiscareno said in the beginning, Blackberry has no idea about who their customers are and who to target.

The level of stupidity and arrogance at this company is beyond comprehension.
If someone gave Blackberry company even to a few inexperienced newbies like us, probably even we knew what to do and turn the company around. It is ridiculous.

Millions of diehard Blackberry fans with a healthy supply of money and I can't buy anything from them?

These days, many businesses struggle adopting consumer grade communication devices for business use AND there is nothing Blackberry can offer to these businesses?

Millions of private customers and millions of more of existing and future business customers are not enough market for Blackberry to make money and to turn the company around?

What a bunch of loosers !!!

Blackberry has been a disappointment of a century, an perfect example of how ignorant and stupid management can bring down a business giant.

Please lay out your business plan in detail including a budget so that like minded people can help you refine your strategy.
I am pretty sure the board of directors look in hear from time to time.

[dalinxz]

Like @Troy Tiscareno said in the beginning, Blackberry has no idea about who their customers are and who to target.

The level of stupidity and arrogance at this company is beyond comprehension.
If someone gave Blackberry company even to a few inexperienced newbies like us, probably even we knew what to do and turn the company around. It is ridiculous.

Millions of diehard Blackberry fans with a healthy supply of money and I can't buy anything from them?

These days, many businesses struggle adopting consumer grade communication devices for business use AND there is nothing Blackberry can offer to these businesses?

Millions of private customers and millions of more of existing and future business customers are not enough market for Blackberry to make money and to turn the company around?

What a bunch of loosers !!!

Blackberry has been a disappointment of a century, an perfect example of how ignorant and stupid management can bring down a business giant.

Well said.

BlackBerry: sure, let's focus on software - are we good in software - no, but let's do software anyways. What about hardware? - no forget that, it makes money, but why put money behind hardware, we're a software company.

This company is a joke, even the Driverless car testing, 10 year pilot, they look miles behind, look at where Tesla is, this is what they've been doing behind the scenes? John Chen is useless! A tech company miles behind, BlackBerry is no tech company, they're another blockbuster of the world

[WES51]

Please lay out your business plan in detail including a budget so that like minded people can help you refine your strategy.
I am pretty sure the board of directors look in hear from time to time.

Dude, please please open your eyes. There ARE other hardware companies that are exclusively catering to businesses and government. And guess what they thrive. Have you ever tried to use a company iPhone that was gutted by the IT department? It is junk! Are you telling me no ome can produce anything better than that? YES maybe I should try it on my own.

[DrBoomBotz]

What about hardware? - no forget that, it makes money, but why put money behind hardware, we're a software company.

BlackBerry lost a metric truck load of money on hardware starting with BB10.
I can't see how you could be more wrong.

[WES51]

BlackBerry lost a metric truck load of money on hardware starting with BB10.
I can't see how you could be more wrong.

Then you may work for them.

BB10 was rejected by most businesses for a variety of valid reasons.

...and if anyone thinks a dedicated business phone with strong business features as well as security has no future, than they should consider working for Blackberry as well.

[DrBoomBotz]

Dude, please please open your eyes. There ARE other hardware companies that are exclusively catering to businesses and government. And guess what they thrive. Have you ever tried to use a company iPhone that was gutted by the IT department? It is junk! Are you telling me no ome can produce anything better than that? YES maybe I should try it on my own.

My eyes are open.
Again, please lay out your plan.

Apple makes decent money.
Samsung makes some money but probably not this year.
Everyone else fights for the scraps or dumps product for future market share.
There are well funded players in this market that either dominate or can endure losses in order to dominate it in the future.

You talk the talk, but can you walk the walk?
From your reply above, I seriously doubt you have anything to bring.

[Invictus0]

There ARE other hardware companies that are exclusively catering to businesses and government. And guess what they thrive.

Which companies are you referring to out of curiosity?