[antoscimento]

I just applied a simple mathematical equation, I don't know if anyone else did it before. But considering Blackberry have sold around 700.000 devices during Q3 2015 with an average 315$, that makes it around 220.500.000$ of revenues.

Considering the Priv as X (priced at 700$) and all other Blackberry devices as Y (average price of 240$ or 192$ - considering a drop of 20%-) or 700.000-X;
220.500.000 = 700x + 240 (700.000 - x)
X= 114.130 units.
Same equation considering older BlackBerry devices have seen a simple drop in their prices (in case) of 20% (best case scenario for the Priv):
220.500.000= 700x + 192 (700.000-x)
X= 169.488 units.

That can be considered Privs sales over 22 days... just to put things into perspective the Passport have sold 200.000 units in its first day. As Blackberry have claimed.

Posted via CB10

[rthonpm]

Your math has one problem: it makes the supposition that BlackBerry gets the full price of the handset direct to them. Carriers and resellers purchase in bulk so they're not paying the retail price of the device, which has a markup for the retailer built into it.



Posted via CB10

[antoscimento]

Yes you are right.

Posted via CB10

[KNEBB]

Given your scenario , could you calculate what would have been the possible return on investment if BlackBerry had promoted (advertised) the Passport as heavily as they have the Priv. Or if they were to advertise them as a joint venture.
How much additional revenue would a joint campaign produce? Being the goal is 5 million units.

Posted via CB10

[DrBoomBotz]

Your math has one problem: it makes the supposition that BlackBerry gets the full price of the handset direct to them. Carriers and resellers purchase in bulk so they're not paying the retail price of the device, which has a markup for the retailer built into it.



Posted via CB10

Another thing to consider is the ASP of the other devices may have actually increased.

[Mark Sb]

Your math has one problem: it makes the supposition that BlackBerry gets the full price of the handset direct to them. Carriers and resellers purchase in bulk so they're not paying the retail price of the device, which has a markup for the retailer built into it.



Posted via CB10

This scenario actually improves the Privs numbers. Seeking alpha used $599 in their calculation...I assumed that they were taking into account that carriers and wholesalers don't pay retail prices. Carriers must account for the vast majority of sales...if we reduce the $599 average down to $450 then we get 250,000 Privs sold.

700,000 devices with an ASP of $315 = $220,500,000

450,000 bb10 devices sold at $240 = $108,000,000
250,000 Privs sold at $450 = $112,500,000

$108,000,000 + $112,500,000 = $220,500,000

[DrBoomBotz]

This scenario actually helps the Privs numbers. Seeking alpha used $599 in their calculation...I assumed that it was taking into account the carrier discount. Carriers must account for the vast majority of sales...if we reduce the $599 average down to $450 then we get 250,000 Privs sold.

700,000 devices at an average price of $315 = $220,500,000

450,000 bb10 devices sold at $240 = $108,000,000
250,000 Privs sold at $450 = $112,500,000

$108,000,000 + $112,500,000 = $220,500,000

We don't know the ASP of Priv and we don't know the ASP of the other devices.
Just saying!

[Mark Sb]

We don't know the ASP of Priv and we don't know the ASP of the other devices.
Just saying!

Yes...but this makes sense considering this:

“Relative to Passport, Classic and Leap, and [over the] same time frame, this is magnitudes better than those launches,” Beard said, adding that for the first time in ages, BlackBerry could have more demand than supply for a product.

"For Q4, I'm expecting sequential revenue growth in device and higher gross margin. Depending on how PRIV does in Q4, there's a chance -- I mean, I'm being warned by a lot of people -- there is a chance, we could achieve or get closer to breakeven operating profitability for our overall device business in the quarter."

Does this mean they are expecting to reach 5 million device sales by the end of Q4?

When they set the target of 5 million devices sold in a year to break even. Were they referring to four full quarters of the Priv and other android devices being in the market? If that's the case, and Chen is already talking about possibly breaking even in q4...after the Priv has only been on the market for 22 days of q3 and q4 with no other new devices launched, then the Priv must be selling like hotcakes.

[DrBoomBotz]

Yes...but this makes sense considering the "Magnitudes better" comment.

Sorry which "Magnitudes better" comment?

I'll reserve the right to decide for myself what makes sense.

[antoscimento]

So basically we are around quarter of a million devices sold for Q3 2015

Posted via CB10

[Mark Sb]

Sorry which "Magnitudes better" comment?

I'll reserve the right to decide for myself what makes sense.

“Relative to Passport, Classic and Leap, and [over the] same time frame, this is magnitudes better than those launches,” Beard said, adding that for the first time in ages, BlackBerry could have more demand than supply for a product.

BlackBerry?s Phone Future Hinges on Priv?s Success | Re/code

[Kaye_max008]

My heard hurts

Posted via CB10

[DrBoomBotz]

“Relative to Passport, Classic and Leap, and [over the] same time frame, this is magnitudes better than those launches,” Beard said, adding that for the first time in ages, BlackBerry could have more demand than supply for a product.

BlackBerry?s Phone Future Hinges on Priv?s Success | Re/code

Ok magnitudes is plural meaning at least 100x greater.
I am going to call hyperbole and discount that as worthless.

[Mark Sb]

Ok magnitudes is plural meaning at least 100x greater.
I am going to call hyperbole and discount that as worthless.

Actually its 10x if you are referring to earth quakes...which I think you are...but as a figure of speech it is just an adjective to describe how much better they are selling...remove the adjective and they are still selling better.

[DrBoomBotz]

Actually its 10x if you are referring to earth quakes...which I think you are...but as a figure of speech it is just an adjective to describe how much better they are selling...remove the adjective and they are still selling better.

LOL!

[mnc76]

I did this calculation (with different numbers) last week in the armchair CEO forum (the thread on BlackBerry q3 results).

Repost
"Well, if the ASP for non-Priv phones (in Canadian dollars) has stayed at $240, and the Priv costs $800, then we get the following equation, where

700,000 = #of total units sold
x = #of Priv units sold,
700,000 - x = #of non-Privs sold
800 = Priv ASP
240 = Non-Priv ASP
315 = ASP for this quarter

Then

(800x + 240*(700,000 - x))/700,000 = 315

Solving for #of Priv units sold gives 93,750.

Take that for what it is

Please correct any of my input numbers (I may have gotten currencies mixed up between USD and CAD)."

So we have a lot of room here depending on what we guess the asps are.

Posted via CB10

[Mark Sb]

I did this calculation (with different numbers) last week in the armchair CEO forum (the thread on BlackBerry q3 results).

Repost
"Well, if the ASP for non-Priv phones (in Canadian dollars) has stayed at $240, and the Priv costs $800, then we get the following equation, where

700,000 = #of total units sold
x = #of Priv units sold,
700,000 - x = #of non-Privs sold
800 = Priv ASP
240 = Non-Priv ASP
315 = ASP for this quarter

Then

(800x + 240*(700,000 - x))/700,000 = 315

Solving for #of Priv units sold gives 93,750.

Take that for what it is

Please correct any of my input numbers (I may have gotten currencies mixed up between USD and CAD)."

So we have a lot of room here depending on what we guess the asps are.

Posted via CB10

Your average sale price for the Priv at $800 is way too high...even in CAN dollars...

We need to answer 2 questions.

1. What percentage discount do carriers and wholesalers get on phones?
2. What percentage of sales are from carriers and wholesalers?

[DrBoomBotz]

I did this calculation (with different numbers) last week in the armchair CEO forum (the thread on BlackBerry q3 results).

Repost
"Well, if the ASP for non-Priv phones (in Canadian dollars) has stayed at $240, and the Priv costs $800, then we get the following equation, where

700,000 = #of total units sold
x = #of Priv units sold,
700,000 - x = #of non-Privs sold
800 = Priv ASP
240 = Non-Priv ASP
315 = ASP for this quarter

Then

(800x + 240*(700,000 - x))/700,000 = 315

Solving for #of Priv units sold gives 93,750.

Take that for what it is

Please correct any of my input numbers (I may have gotten currencies mixed up between USD and CAD)."

So we have a lot of room here depending on what we guess the asps are.

Posted via CB10

Since the legacy ASP is in US dollars the priv ASP should be in US dollars.
We can only guess at the ASP's. But there are bounds, the priv ASP is not likely to be greater than the price to the consumer.

[Mark Sb]

So basically we are around quarter of a million devices sold for Q3 2015

Posted via CB10

Yes, if we factor in carrier and wholesale prices. Also, it wasn't a full quarter for the Priv, it was only 22 days of Q3...and it was only released to 1 major US carrier and 4 countries...

[DrBoomBotz]

So basically we are around quarter of a million devices sold for Q3 2015

I think that number is very optimistic.
If we assume ASP $600.00 for the Priv and ASP $240.00 for the other devices then the number of privs sold is ~150,000.
But we are guessing at the priv ASP and the other ASP.
Which is pretty good considering 22 days and one Major American Carrier.

[kvndoom]

42. The answer is always 42.

[Mark Sb]

I think think that number is very optimistic.
If we assume ASP $600.00 for the Priv and ASP $240.00 for the other devices then the number of privs sold is ~150,000.
But we are guessing at the priv ASP and the other ASP.
Which is pretty good considering 22 days and one Major American Carrier.

It might be...do carriers get a discount, or do they pay retail and then recover their costs over the 2 years? I think I worked it out once with buying a phone outright versus buying on a plan, you end up paying more for the phone in the end if you buy on a plan.

[DrBoomBotz]

It might be...but, as mentioned, the ASP should be substantially lower than retail price, since the majority of users will purchase their phones from the carriers who would be getting them at a discount from bb. I would imagine anyway...or do carriers pay retail price and then make their profits through their contracts?

Yes the carriers are getting a piece of the pie.

[DrBoomBotz]

My heard hurts

Now mine does too.

[Mark Sb]

Yes the carriers are getting a piece of the pie.

It would appear we need to consider a lower ASP when doing these calculations. If we take the ASP of 240 for other devices...those other devices are:

Passport: $599
Passport SE: $649
Blackberry classic: $499
Leap: $279
Z10: $599
Z30: $599

ASP: $439

This means the ASP from q2 (240) was $199 less than the average retail price.

If we apply this to the Priv then the ASP when doing the calculations should be $699 - $199 = $500

This works out to just over 200,000 Privs sold.