1. JPMorgan_'s Avatar
    BlackBerry 10 vs Windows Phone 8: No Prize for Fourth Place?

    The smartphone market is a big one, and growing fast. This is an area where operating systems become ecosystems, and where ecosystems become synonymous with their respective companies. Looking to the next few years, the most important mobile ecosystems will come from Apple with iOS, Google with Android, Research in Motion with BlackBerry, and Microsoft with Windows (Samsung has Bada, but who cares?).

    At the top, we have the Android. By flooding the market with its �free-ness�, it has managed to secure the largest smartphone and tablet market share worldwide. In second, we have iOS, making ridiculous amounts of money with only a few devices. But in such a large, expanding market, even third is a lucrative position to be in. Most analysts claim there is room for three mobile ecostems. BlackBerry 10 or Windows 8, the leading non-androidian, non-pomaceous ecosystems are duking it out for that ever-so-decent third slice of the mobile pie. Who shall emerge the victor?

    The case for BlackBerry 10

    The new BlackBerry 10 operating system is set to be released later this year and we�ve seen some demos and brief previews of what it offers. The new swipe-based virtual keyboard is a truly innovative feature in itself, making single-handed typing less annoying on a touchscreen. The time-adjustment camera feature is nothing new, but its implementation creates a smartphone camera experience that is entirely better in every way to anything else we�ve come across. The �flow� of BlackBerry 10 is efficient, impressive and well-designed. The inclusion of a re-vamped BBM in BlackBerry 10 on a modern touch-screen OS is also sure to attract some users back to BlackBerry.

    In addition, I believe that developing for BlackBerry has improved by leaps and bounds over the past couple years, fostering a potentially great App World for BlackBerry 10 devices. I�ve had first-hand experience with the BlackBerry developer tools, creating a few apps using the WebWorks SDK, Native C SDK, AIR SDK and the BlackBerry 10 SDK with Cascades. My expeience has been great. In fact, I already have a native BlackBerry 10 app ready to go by using the BlackBerry 10 Cascades tools! The sample apps, documentation, and great native tools for the BlackBerry platform allows developers to create high quality apps that people will want.


    The case for Windows 8

    Microsoft�s Windows Phone 7 has been out for a while. Windows 8 is supposed to unify the �Windows� experience across all devices, from desktops to smartphones. The user interface for Windows 8 (presuming its similar to Windows Phone 7) is sleek and different. I like it quite a bit. It�s fast, fluid, and easy to use.

    The developer tools for Windows Phone 7 are good as well. The tools are all there and allow you to quickly make a good app. They shoud only get better for Windows 8. With OEMs able manufacturing large volumes of these devices, the potential for Microsoft to enter to market as Android did is there.

    All this aside, let�s look at the larger picture. Looking at RIM�s position, they have about 80 million BlackBerry users, some cash, strong roots in the corporate market. Not bad at all. Microsoft�s is the opposite with much fewer users and wads of cash. But what is more important for third place?

    Despite many open questions, I feel its safe to make a few predictions. RIM is in third place and should remain there for the next couple years, thanks to its current large user base. Frankly, Microsoft is too far behind to contend with RIM at this point. Yet, the only thing that is certain about the mobile market is its uncertainty. And the determination of these two companies to succeed in the mobile market is also quite certain.

    Over the next five years, I expect both BlackBerry and Windows 8 to slowly grow their market share at the expense of Android and iOS. I find it hard to believe that both Apple and Google will maintain such a large share in a market that is constantly changing and expanding. With market shares of at least 5% each, RIM and Microsoft can both do well as the �alternative� ecosystems.

    Of course, little will change over the next couple of years. Apple and Google will still maintain their lead (and even grow it some more). A continued effort by both RIM and Microsoft with their newer ecosystems should increase their presence in the industry to profitable levels. Beyond that, who knows? But I believe the bottom of the podium has enough room for two. Microsoft and RIM would be wise to target the largest user bases of Google and Apple and not each other�s, where much more market share can be gained.


    BlackBerry 10 vs Windows Phone 8: No Prize for Fourth Place? | N4BB - News for BlackBerry - forums, leaks, rumors, videos, faqs, reviews
    FlashFlare11 and Superfly_FR like this.
    05-23-12 11:37 PM
  2. FlashFlare11's Avatar
    I think this is a good comparison between the two. Microsoft has a lot of money to throw at WP8 marketing and they will make a strong push to have WP everywhere. With that said, I believe RIM will also pursue an aggressive marketing campaign. Marketing is so important because both companies (will) have the two most innovative and unique OSs on the market.

    As far as system advantages go, Windows 8 will be a unified experience with the desktop, tablet, and phone running on one OS. As Windows 8 adoption increases, I think WP8 will see larger adoption rates. With that said, I think it's also difficult to overlook the major overhaul Microsoft is performing with W8 on the desktop. It's radically different than anything we've seen in the past, so I'm hesitant to say that it will be met with universal acclaim. But I also don't think WP8 sales will be based soley upon W8 adoption at all, though it will play a part.

    BlackBerry 10, I think, will differentiate itself. RIM has already made a great name for itself within the corporate enterprise sector, and even in the consumer market its name hasn't been tarnished as much as people claim. With that said, RIM needs to market BB10 hard, and let people know that the reasons most people abandoned BlackBerry devices are no longer present, and that this is a brand new BlackBerry. Marketing, again, is key.
    05-24-12 01:24 AM
  3. anjali_jain's Avatar
    Microsoft has the money and the influence, not to mention determination and patience, to push a platform through and BB 10 can be a big threat to iOS. I wish WP 8 and BB10 will destroy iOS's dominance once and for all this time jobs will not there to save apple.
    MasterOfBinary likes this.
    05-24-12 01:26 AM
  4. siddo_d's Avatar
    I personally don't see why windows phone 7 is considered 3rd when they dont have the number BlackBerry do, maybe people are judging on performance but BlackBerry in sense of devices out there should be 3rd

    Sent from my BlackBerry 9800 using CrackBerry forums application
    05-24-12 01:46 AM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    #3 to #4 rank is a 0.xx % market share; that's what I thought reading this good article.
    Does not matter.
    RIM must deliver. Stand. Improve. Seduce. This is a 2-3 years come-back strategy (unless there's a "divine surprise", but I hope they don't bet on it). Little steps. Back to DNA.
    Then bashers could became followers: welcome.
    Thunderbuck likes this.
    05-24-12 05:11 AM
  6. lnichols's Avatar
    Then bashers could became followers: welcome.
    I don't think that I want most of these bashers to come back. Judging by the intelligence (or lack there of) of coming to an enthusiast site every day just to try to provoke people with negative articles or postings, I doubt that they would really contribute anything other than a warm body holding a BB10 device . Doubt they will come off the Ignore List though.
    Last edited by lnichols; 05-24-12 at 09:31 AM.
    05-24-12 08:29 AM
  7. cgk's Avatar
    I know the article says "but who cares about bada" but the reality is to be third in market share, then it is a target both WP8 and bb10 will have to beat.

    Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express
    05-24-12 10:35 AM
  8. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    I don't think that I want most of these bashers to come back. Judging by the intelligence (or lack there of) of coming to an enthusiast site every day just to try to provoke people with negative articles or postings, I doubt that they would really contribute anything other than a warm body holding a BB10 device . Doubt they will come off the Ignore List though.
    It's business
    [YT]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaiSHcHM0PA[/YT]
    05-24-12 11:06 AM
  9. dandbj13's Avatar
    I'm not convinced that there is much of a prize for #3 other than continued existence as a niche player that doesn't really matter. I read earlier today that iOS and Android combined for 80% marketshare. Thing is, that number just keeps getting bigger, not smaller. The #3 spot becomes more meaningless everyday.

    http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/24/30...e-market-share

    The market is growing, but the Android/Apple lead is growing just as fast.
    Last edited by dandbj13; 05-24-12 at 02:33 PM. Reason: added link and comment
    05-24-12 02:18 PM
  10. sam_b77's Avatar
    Microsoft has the money and the influence, not to mention determination and patience, to push a platform through and BB 10 can be a big threat to iOS. I wish WP 8 and BB10 will destroy iOS's dominance once and for all this time jobs will not there to save apple.
    What did Apple do to you?? Why do you want it destroyed? Did Jobs come in your dream and do bad stuff to you??

    Why don't people get it, more competition is better for consumer and better for innovation as a whole with each company pushing the other to improve.
    This is the same as Apple fans clamouring for RIM to die. In a word this kind of thought process is plain stupid.
    Laura Knotek likes this.
    05-24-12 02:35 PM
  11. cgk's Avatar
    I'm not convinced that there is much of a prize for #3 other than continued existence as a niche player that doesn't really matter. I read earlier today that iOS and Android combined for 80% marketshare. Thing is, that number just keeps getting bigger, not smaller. The #3 spot becomes more meaningless everyday.

    Android and iOS powered more than 80 percent of smartphones in Q1 2012, says IDC | The Verge

    The market is growing, but the Android/Apple lead is growing just as fast.
    And if you look at revenue and profits, currently getting to third player (or Wp7 or minor android player) doesn't look like it would be an activity that would be particularly profitable or profitable at all - the OS is the cheap bit - to keep up with iOS and Android, you need to be spending billions of dollars to provide all of the ecosystem items that consumers now expect.

    I'm amazed some of the OEMs have hung it in as they have but we have got to start seeing some exits over the next couple of quarters.
    05-24-12 02:44 PM
  12. anthogag's Avatar
    I've seen videos of windows 8 and I think BB10 is better

    RIM could also show consumers BB10 (or the playbook) can function as a desktop computer (external screen + keyboard + mouse) because it has QNX roots...they would have desktop, tablet, and phone as a seamless experience (flow, converge, and extend)
    05-24-12 03:36 PM
  13. cgk's Avatar
    I've seen videos of windows 8
    On phones? Have you got a link?
    05-24-12 03:52 PM
  14. kbz1960's Avatar
    I had the win8 beta on my lappy. Granted in a virtual machine but it was meh, OK. Still not sure I like the tiles thing esp. for a non touch device.
    05-24-12 03:56 PM
  15. anthogag's Avatar
    On phones? Have you got a link?

    No, its was windows 8 on the desktop computer but it's going to work that way on the phone...and the tablet, right

    I really think people will love the swiping aspect of BB10 when they try it
    05-24-12 04:06 PM
  16. sinsin07's Avatar
    The prize for third is bronze, a non precious metal No one cares about bronze except the third place winners parents..
    05-24-12 04:15 PM
  17. sam_b77's Avatar
    The prize for third is bronze, a non precious metal No one cares about bronze except the third place winners parents..
    This is business, not the Olympics. It's about making money for the company and its employees. Not about getting a gold medal. Why do you insist on treating this as a gladiatorial grudge match??
    Laura Knotek likes this.
    05-24-12 04:24 PM
  18. SnoozerBold's Avatar
    As long as rim manages to stick around somehow, I could care less if they're 3 or 4. However bb10 seems to be make or break for rim so I'm rooting for them to be 3rd and eventually higher.
    05-24-12 04:47 PM
  19. sinsin07's Avatar
    This is business, not the Olympics. It's about making money for the company and its employees. Not about getting a gold medal. Why do you insist on treating this as a gladiatorial grudge match??
    Ahh what irony
    05-24-12 05:10 PM
  20. PTZ's Avatar
    Bigger may not mean more profitable. I think that the battle for RIM is recreating their niche market. In the auto industry being the biggest has not meant being the best or most profitable. RIM is in a battle, against competitive opponents. Hopefully the debut of the new RIM products will be at the right time for them to catch the attention of the right people. I wonder how the Bb10 will be different than the other phone os's. Will have to wait and see I guess. Love my PlayBook so I'm thinking it will be right for me.
    Whether RIM is first second or third may matter some, announcing being in the black would be best. Kind of fun reading all the speculation.
    05-24-12 08:19 PM
  21. cgk's Avatar
    I think that the battle for RIM is recreating their niche market.
    And what is the identifiable niche?
    05-25-12 02:05 AM
  22. dandbj13's Avatar
    And what is the identifiable niche?
    Those who do. Haven't you heard? You're either in business, or you're not.
    05-25-12 05:36 AM
  23. cgk's Avatar
    Those who do. Haven't you heard? You're either in business, or you're not.
    Wait I think it was "Let's rock and roll it!" or I thought it was something to do with all the great games on BB10 or maybe it was something else?

    Oh I know

    "We have a laser focus on everthing!"
    05-25-12 05:58 AM
  24. leftypepper716's Avatar
    Wow! just less than 4-5 yrs ago, RIM have other HALF the smartphone market. "Say it ain't so, Joe!" And NOW just trying to stay out of last place in the USA. Apple as well as the Android market will still dominate at least 2 more years.
    05-25-12 06:06 AM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD