[howarmat]

They've only sold about 15 million bb10 devices in the two years they've been out. That leaves about 50 million BlackBerry users still on bb7, no?

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

im not sure how you think sales of bb10 indicate how many people still use BBOS

[Motosurf]

Usually it takes a few years for one company to turn loss to profit. Look at Motorola for example, they just started making profit after the last earning

[conite]

im not sure how you think sales of bb10 indicate how many people still use BBOS

I generally thought that there are about 60-70 million active BlackBerry users still out there. Is that not the number usually tossed around?

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

[TGR1]

Usually it takes a few years for one company to turn loss to profit. Look at Motorola for example, they just started making profit after the last earning

They also were sold for a song in the interim..

[DenverRalphy]

I generally thought that there are about 60-70 million active BlackBerry users still out there. Is that not the number usually tossed around?

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

That number used to be a reference. However, it's been a long time since BBRY released an Active Number of Users count, so for all intents and purposes it's not really reliable anymore. For all we know, it could be as low as 40 mil, and as high as 80 mil. Unless I missed a recent announcement.


Via Tapatalk

[lnichols]

Chen is likely lying. I'm seeing government purchases of Z10 and Z30, but then that would make the PKB focus look bad. Notice how nothing about sales is on paper, and they only announce numbers in the calls caveated with their get out of jail free of liability for lies in the call.

Posted via CB10

[Troy Tiscareno]

I generally thought that there are about 60-70 million active BlackBerry users still out there. Is that not the number usually tossed around?

Those numbers were "tossed around" more than a year ago. In the past year, their usage in several of their biggest markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa) have been gutted, with tens of millions switching to low-cost Android phones (most of them using BBM for Android). If I had to guess, I'd say that BB is somewhere around the 30M mark and still shrinking fast, as that would still be 2/3 on BBOS and 1/3 on BB10. The BBOS users are mostly corporate/enterprise-issued phone in western countries (whose marketshare continues to erode) and low-cost Curve users in developing countries, who are rapidly converting to Android. I suspect that of the roughly 20M BBOS users still active today, close to 15M of them will be off BBOS a year from now, and relatively few will have migrated to BB10. BB10 phones are mostly priced out of the market in developing countries, which is where the largest concentration of users still remains.

[undone]

The remarkable thing is the ASP (180 to 210 I think the numbers where) is up not down. Cash is positive, cost cutting should be coming to an end, lean and mean. Devices will mean less and less but will remain profitable as time moves forward. Chen would rather not sell devices then lose money on them or have to do a write down on inventory.

[conite]

Those numbers were "tossed around" more than a year ago. In the past year, their usage in several of their biggest markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa) have been gutted, with tens of millions switching to low-cost Android phones (most of them using BBM for Android). If I had to guess, I'd say that BB is somewhere around the 30M mark and still shrinking fast, as that would still be 2/3 on BBOS and 1/3 on BB10. The BBOS users are mostly corporate/enterprise-issued phone in western countries (whose marketshare continues to erode) and low-cost Curve users in developing countries, who are rapidly converting to Android. I suspect that of the roughly 20M BBOS users still active today, close to 15M of them will be off BBOS a year from now, and relatively few will have migrated to BB10. BB10 phones are mostly priced out of the market in developing countries, which is where the largest concentration of users still remains.

I have no information to support or contradict these numbers directly, but didn't the last earnings report say about 100 million active BBM users? If that's the case (since you are guessing 30 million BlackBerry users today), are there really 70 million active BBM users on other platforms? If so, that's remarkable growth for BBM.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

[lnichols]

I generally thought that there are about 60-70 million active BlackBerry users still out there. Is that not the number usually tossed around?

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

Nope I remember seeing a now down to 40 or 45 million total and dropping. You have to remember most of their growth was with low end device in low end markets where cheap Android is now sacking away customers quickly.

Posted via CB10

[DenverRalphy]

I have no information to support or contradict these numbers directly, but didn't the last earnings report say about 100 million active BBM users? If that's the case (since you are guessing 30 million BlackBerry users today), are there really 70 million active BBM users on other platforms? If so, that's remarkable growth for BBM.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

That would depend on the current number of active BBM users. I haven't looked yet, but have they reported BBM Active users during this current earnings call?

Via Tapatalk

[conite]

From today (n4bb):

"During the earnings call, BlackBerry�s CEO gave additional insight into the earnings report and the company�s current position.

Chen speaking on software and services, the details around BBM were revealed. The cross platform service is now seeing 100+ Million monthly active users."

So back to my original statement: Either there are still a lot of bb7 users, or BBM has made massive inroads cross-platform.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

[Maxxxpower]

I remember seeing a now down to 40 or 45 million total and dropping.

Indeed, 46 mio (as of September 2014) was the latest number I could find
Ten things to know about BlackBerry - and how much trouble it is (or isn't) in | Technology | The Guardian

[conite]

Indeed, 46 mio (as of September 2014) was the latest number I could find
Ten things to know about BlackBerry - and how much trouble it is (or isn't) in | Technology | The Guardian

See my post right above yours.

Only BlackBerry would really know. So either Chen is telling the truth or lying about 100 million active BBM users.

Edit: If you're talking about BlackBerry users (not BBM) then disregard. It's getting confusing.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

[lnichols]

See my post right above yours.

Only BlackBerry would really know. So either Chen is telling the truth or lying about 100 million active users.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

Those are BBM users. Yes they are making cross platform inroads.

Posted via CB10

[conite]

Those are BBM users. Yes they are making cross platform inroads.

Posted via CB10

So then that would make about 15 million bb10 users, 30 million bb7 users, and (not directly related, but) 55 million non-bb BBM users.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

[JeepBB]

They've only sold about 15 million bb10 devices in the two years they've been out. That leaves about 50 million BlackBerry users still on bb7, no?

No.

BB were down to 46M subscribers in September 2014. The graph is near-enough a straight line and they are losing roughly 4M subscribers per quarter. So, probably around 40M subscribers as of today.

Way back, it was announced by BB that "subscribers" was a loose term that included BBOS (true subscribers) and BB10 (activations). So if BB has a total user base of 40M devices, howarmat's estimate of 30M BBOS subscribers isn't unreasonable.

[Maxxxpower]

55 million non-bb BBM users.

Clearly a high number but not impossible. More than 100 mio BBM downloads on Android. Now add iOS and WP and substract the ones not using/uninstalling it.

[conite]

No.

BB were down to 46M subscribers in September 2014. The graph is near-enough a straight line and they are losing roughly 4M subscribers per quarter. So, probably around 40M subscribers as of today.

Way back, it was announced by BB that "subscribers" was a loose term that included BBOS (true subscribers) and BB10 (activations). So if BB has a total user base of 40M devices, howarmat's estimate of 30M BBOS subscribers isn't unreasonable.

Ya. The conversation evolved since my earlier post. See my recent post right above yours.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

[Boattown Jim]

From today (n4bb):

"During the earnings call, BlackBerry’s CEO gave additional insight into the earnings report and the company’s current position.

Chen speaking on software and services, the details around BBM were revealed. The cross platform service is now seeing 100+ Million monthly active users."

So back to my original statement: Either there are still a lot of bb7 users, or BBM has made massive inroads cross-platform.

Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.281

And a lot of bb7 users are likely not happy with BB Traffic going EOL today. That 50 million (assuming that is close to a real number) could generate recurring revenue if all 50 million were offered a continuation of BB Traffic on a subscription basis. Even modest market penetration could provide positive cash flow.

I personally would gladly pay $50/year for the service. At a fraction of that and with a 1% market penetration it would be viable.

I expect you will say to buy a 10 and get BB Maps. I checked that application out on a client's BB 10. Not impressed! He is also not happy with the fact that contacts don't sync well and that contact notes do not come over like they did with his Bold.

Sad, as I always like BB. Have had them since 2008.

[AhmadCentral]

Hi all,

Please see break down of Blackberry Sales for last fiscal year (March 1st 2014-Feb 28th 2015)

Total sell in for FY2015:

5.05m - BB10
1.95m - BB7

Total: Approximately 7.00m units sold in and recognised by Blackberry during FY15.

Please note that the above is an approximate break down based on official information from BlackBerry Limited.

BlackBerry have now sold in more than 11 million BB10 devices since launch on January 30th 2013. BB10 shipments totalled just over 5 million accounting for more than 70% of all BlackBerry devices sold in during the past 12 months. Last FY, BB7 sell in was higher than BB10 sell in so at least BB10 is taking more share, however BB7 sell in is on a sharp decline and is expected to account for less than 5% of total device sell in for FY2016. Whilst BB7 shipments decrease, BB10 shipments are not growing as evidenced by the almost 50% drop in total shipments YOY.


As of December the number of active BlackBerry users worldwide totalled 41 million and is expected to be less than 40 million today. (Not 46 million as mentioned above)

[Maxxxpower]

As of December the number of active BlackBerry users worldwide totalled 41 million [...] (Not 46 million as mentioned above)

Read carefully.

46 mio (as of September 2014)

[AhmadCentral]

Read carefully.

My point is that you're using an outdated number. You said it was the latest you can find. I provided you with an official updated number.

Also, here are Blackberry 10 shipments for past 12 months split by quarter.

Q1 - 1.03m
Q2 - 1.41m
Q3 - 1.38m
Q4- ~1.23m

Total: 5.05m

[Maxxxpower]

My point is that you're using an outdated number. You said it was the latest you can find.

And it still is the last one I could find. So your point

(Not 46 million as mentioned above)

is wrong as you refer to another point in the past as I never pretended to give numbers for december.

I provided you with an official updated number.

Can you give a link?

Also, here are Blackberry 10 shipments for past 12 months split by quarter.

Q1 - 1.03m
Q2 - 1.41m
Q3 - 1.38m
Q4- ~1.18m

Total: 5.0m

a) Source?
b) These numbers differ from numbers provided by Blackberry in past conference calls. My calculation (with links provided) can be found in the first posting

[AhmadCentral]

Can you give a link?

a) Source?
b) These numbers differ from numbers provided by Blackberry in past conference calls. My calculation (with links provided can be found in the first posting)

Go to this link
http://uk.blackberry.com/content/dam...nformation.pdf

Press CTRL+F so it brings up the search box and type in "41 million".

The numbers for each quarter are based on approximate sell in numbers provided in each quarterly report for BB10 sales.