[Rickster1]

Well Blackberry has come out and set the record straight. There is a new thread going that highlights the news, below;

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BlackBerry Inc. BBRY +0.25% said Wednesday afternoon that the launches of the Z10 smartphone in the U.K. and Canadian markets have set records for the launch of a new BlackBerry device. In a statement, CEO Thorsten Heins said the launch of the touchscreen Z10 in Canada on Tuesday "was more than 50% better than any other launch day in our history in Canada." The device launched last Thursday in the U.K., where Heins said "we have seen close to three times our best performance ever for the first week of sales for a BlackBerry smartphone." No specific sales figures were given. BlackBerry shares were last trading up about 0.4% to $16.08 after trading down 1% earlier.

[Admorris]

i dont get it. If it has exceeded exp[ectations, that is still impressive, regardless of how low expectations are to begin with.

It still means better then expected, which is the right direction to be moving

All CEO's are going to say that about an initial launch...it would be an absolute disaster if they didn't. The truth will be told in a few months when hard numbers are released...not cheerleading articles by one side or the other.

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[Rickster1]

Blackberry sets the record straight on sales. See below;

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BlackBerry Inc. BBRY +0.25% said Wednesday afternoon that the launches of the Z10 smartphone in the U.K. and Canadian markets have set records for the launch of a new BlackBerry device. In a statement, CEO Thorsten Heins said the launch of the touchscreen Z10 in Canada on Tuesday "was more than 50% better than any other launch day in our history in Canada." The device launched last Thursday in the U.K., where Heins said "we have seen close to three times our best performance ever for the first week of sales for a BlackBerry smartphone." No specific sales figures were given. BlackBerry shares were last trading up about 0.4% to $16.08 after trading down 1% earlier.

[darkehawke]

All CEO's are going to say that about an initial launch...it would be an absolute disaster if they didn't. The truth will be told in a few months when hard numbers are released...not cheerleading articles by one side or the other.

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true
but i was more impressed by the actual shops saying it

[melb_me]

Thorsten said they were 50% ahead of what they thought right? I'm sure they were not running out their projections in a "Going out of Business" suicide plan. If they are 50% ahead that is extremely good news. Also 50% ahead means out of stocks will absolutely occur AND be genuine. Sit tight boys and girls.

[hurds]

drummer_god, you bring up a good point as to the lower end devices.

I'd assume these all still require BIS and they may still be selling well globally. T-mobile just came out with a new device in Jan. Obviously its important for BB10 to get a good start but its more important how it does in the long run.

[duckJAI]

If Thor is saying a specific %, I'm sure he isn't lying about it as it can be proven down the road. That would be just absolute bad PR. If it didn't go as well as planned, he wouldn't have given a specific number attached to his statement.

Thor + retailers both saying sales are very good, can only mean the same thing. No conflicting stories, and I doubt both CEO and retailers would lie about the performance of the launch.

I'd be more interested in know the amount allotted to the retailers. I'm assuming BB went pessimistic on inventory and didn't give retailers a whole bunch like iPhones and S3s though. But from what I hear, 10-15 phones per store can equate to a decent amount.

[hurds]

@admorris and melb_me

Read posts 26 and 28 by rickster

[richardat]

I enjoyed the accusation that BlackBerry intentionally limited supply to highlight "sellouts". It's just that: an opinionated accusation with no factual basis. Is it possible? Yes. Is it also possible that BlackBerry didn't want to have overstock (like the past year; they can't afford to do that again) and to sort of test the market? Yes, that's actually even more sensical and logical.
\.

It is indeed only a theory, just as it is sheer speculation they did not. However, it would be in their marketing interest to do so, and I would have advised them to do so. The alternative is: they are incompetent, and unable to deliver anything but an extremely meager shipment of phones. Would you prefer that???

[richardat]

If Thor is saying a specific %, I'm sure he isn't lying about it as it can be proven down the road. That would be just absolute bad PR. If it didn't go as well as planned, he wouldn't have given a specific number attached to his statement.

Thor + retailers both saying sales are very good, can only mean the same thing. No conflicting stories, and I doubt both CEO and retailers would lie about the performance of the launch.

I'd be more interested in know the amount allotted to the retailers. I'm assuming BB went pessimistic on inventory and didn't give retailers a whole bunch like iPhones and S3s though. But from what I hear, 10-15 phones per store can equate to a decent amount.

He may well not be lying. The problem is:
1. exactly how those figures were arrived at, and what was counted.
2.what were the previous best numbers. (this is NO BETTER than saying: it was a sellout! Which I said repeatedly (as I said with Surface and iphone 5) is MEANINGLESS without telling us how many were supplied! If I say, I made TWICE as much money as yesterday, this means nothing to you, if you don't know what I made yesterday! Yet despite this...some of the seemingly autistic keep repeating over and over "sell-out! sell-out!" (I personally picture them clinging to a blanket and rocking back and forth staring at the ground))

I didn't think yesterday it sold well based only on anecdotal reports on CB and other places....with the analysts research, I feel more worried than ever. If somebody had numbers from the previous best, (or good) launch, then we'd have something to use as a baseline? The numbers may not be very impressive given BB's struggles the last couple years, and given that in earlier years, the market was much smaller. In fact, I doubt very much they are extremely impressive or Thorsten WOULD have given specific numbers. If he COULD say: we sold 1 million phones...or even 500,000 phones, he would have. He'd have been a fool not to.

[Admorris]

@admorris and melb_me

Read posts 26 and 28 by rickster

Like I said, I wouldn't put much stock in what the CEO says...wait for hard numbers. What he posted does not mention any past or current figures.

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[bk1022]

18 million

Where does this number come from? Is it just the estimated development cost of the Q10 divided by the profit per unit? (Much of the development cost would normally be amortized over several generations of phones.)

[Zarpan]

Where does this number come from? Is it just the estimated development cost of the Q10 divided by the profit per unit? (Much of the development cost would normally be amortized over several generations of phones.)

There was a Raymond James analyst who calculated it based on some assumptions such as $4.05 billion operating expenses, $3.9 billion in services revenue, something like 24 million BB7 devices sold at negative margins, and a $375 ASP with 30% margins for BB10.

RIMM: Target 18M BB10 Units for Profit in FY14, Says Raymond James - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

I think he's being too conservative with BB7 margins (seems to work out to negative margins of $48 per device, while last quarter was something like negative $13 per device), and the ASP seems low from everything else we've heard. I'd argue that breakeven is probably more like 13-14 million BB10 devices.

[adrenaline_x]

I have heard from our Rogers Corporate Rep that the buisness / corporate portal for pre-ordering phones is short 4000 units.

Our first two phones have shipped, which were pre-ordered shortly after the portal opened on January 30th. I could see our devices that were shipped were 150 and 169 in the queue of 1169. Soo Not sure what is going on with the rogers corporate fullfillment side.. But is sounds like Rogers mis judged the demand.

2 people i showed the z10 in office want to buy one today.. one has a brand new iphone 5 and both these girls think the devices are sexy

didn't see this coming..

[kelexiong]

There was a Raymond James analyst who calculated it based on some assumptions such as $4.05 billion operating expenses, $3.9 billion in services revenue, something like 24 million BB7 devices sold at negative margins, and a $375 ASP with 30% margins for BB10.

RIMM: Target 18M BB10 Units for Profit in FY14, Says Raymond James - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

I think he's being too conservative with BB7 margins (seems to work out to negative margins of $48 per device, while last quarter was something like negative $13 per device), and the ASP seems low from everything else we've heard. I'd argue that breakeven is probably more like 13-14 million BB10 devices.

I agree that a $375 ASP for BB10 phones is low. Most likely the Z10 and Q10 will comprise most of the sales this year, and the ASP for these devices should be ~$550.

[RubberChicken76]

18 million

Thanks! Important for everyone to remember that this is one analyst's guess. While likely quite educated, he isn't looking at the same set of numbers as RIM themselves would and is making a lot of assumptions. Could be close, completely wrong (in either direction) etc.

[BBerryPowerUser]

That is absolutely correct. I have a friend who's a consultant in the wifi and networking arena. He on his own blog reviewed a Blackberry 10 and called it nothing short of lack luster. That's his opinion. When I asked him if he had a Blackberry or had ever owned a Blackberry he said no. So I take it then he really doesn't understand what BlackBerry is all about. Many people like to make media buzz. Much of it is their opinion rather than cold hard fact. Keep the faith.

[drummer_god]

just re-watched the "rogers launch event for bbz10" video on crackberry:
Rogers CEO does say they will release sales results in a week...which would be the 12th.

[jsmall999]

My company is one of the larger telus accounts in Canada, i know that we are having difficulty getting our initial order of phones in, they are saying that Blackberry has short shipped them on units and they are scrambling to redistribute supply and provide a minimum each of their key accounts to calm them down.

[ccbs]

I agree that a $375 ASP for BB10 phones is low. Most likely the Z10 and Q10 will comprise most of the sales this year, and the ASP for these devices should be ~$550.

There is no remote chance of $550 ASP for Z10 in the US. Even Apple is only fetching about $614 with their mix of phones. And Samsung is estimated to have ASP of about $480 ~ $500 for their top end Galaxy S 4.

[agp101]

It is indeed only a theory, just as it is sheer speculation they did not. However, it would be in their marketing interest to do so, and I would have advised them to do so. The alternative is: they are incompetent, and unable to deliver anything but an extremely meager shipment of phones. Would you prefer that???

Given the fact that there really is no accurate way to foretell how the devices would be received, it would be even more foolish to over-produce, like the PlayBook and os7 devices.



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[Gnomesane]

I dunno, I'm not worried. I've been using the phone for only two days and I can't remember not having it. It's pretty solid. When I went to the Rogers store, I came in with an iPhone 4s and the other guy next to me who was being handled by the other sales manager had a Samsung phone (not sure the model, smaller than an SIII). I showed the phone the first day to a colleague and he is on the waiting list at Rogers for a Z10, and another friend who has a Samsung is going to upgrade to BlackBerry Z10 when his contract expires based on my demo.

And I'll be continuing to show off the phone to all friends and colleagues. The only 'negative' (?) reaction I've received so far is two people commented that it looked similar to an iPhone. Which is true.

At work I showed it two other work colleagues. I gave them the email demo with the Swipe effect, and they started laughing and were visibly impressed. They are now considering upgrading as well.

My personal opinion is that it will be a slow burn, but will hit a critical mass. Let's not forget that BlackBerry is working on BB10.1 which will launch with the QWERTY devices. And many hardcore BB users might be waiting for the keyboard version. Once the Q10 hits the market, the App store should be decently populated, initial bugs in OS10 ironed out and word of mouth will be at critical mass.

Blackberry is going to survive. They did what they needed to do, and they'll be ok.

[bk1022]

That is absolutely correct. I have a friend who's a consultant in the wifi and networking arena. He on his own blog reviewed a Blackberry 10 and called it nothing short of lack luster. That's his opinion. When I asked him if he had a Blackberry or had ever owned a Blackberry he said no. So I take it then he really doesn't understand what BlackBerry is all about. Many people like to make media buzz. Much of it is their opinion rather than cold hard fact. Keep the faith.

Well, of course it is lackluster. It's a phone. At this stage there's a limited number of things a phone can do. It surfs the web, and has push email. Let's say it had a quad-retina display and stereo speakers... Would that blow your mind?

At this point we're only haggling about ecosystem, battery life and maybe a pretty ui. Price doesn't hurt either.

[helis4life]

Phones 4U have come out and stated 55% of 680 stores did sell out on weekend.

BlackBerry Z10 Did Sell Out In 55% Of Phones 4u’s 680 U.K. Stores Over Launch Weekend — But Still No Hard Sales Figures | TechCrunch


The telegraph and the mobile news blog that phoned 2 stores outof 680 and then reported that there were no sell outs are looking pretty stupid today

[RubberChicken76]

The telegraph and the mobile news blog that phoned 2 stores outof 680 and then reported that there were no sell outs are looking pretty stupid today

At least they have the New York Times and Atlantic Wire to look even dumber. New York Times methodology was to send a guy to walk around one mall in one city and then assume the entire country was the same way (even though analyst checks were disagreeing). Then Atlantic Wire made a comparison with the iPhone and referenced an article that didn't actually validate what the author said