[marlowe9810]

I think this needs a serious response..it's complete BS.

BlackBerry earnings preview, Q4 2013: Z10 and subscriber count key | BGR

"The plot thickens: BlackBerry�s February subscriber math will be a nail-biter"

"If the sub base shrinks by more than 2 million units, it means that BlackBerry has to rush out the new low-end models out ASAP or risk a summer collapse."

[undone]

Ready....BlackBerry subscribers are going to shrink or the metric they use to calculate them is going to change. Z10 = no more BIS. So without BIS is a Z10 user really a subscriber?

Too add BIS = revenue for BlackBerry

Does anyone know what the revenue models are for the BB10 devices?

[Superfly_FR]

Ready....BlackBerry subscribers are going to shrink or the metric they use to calculate them is going to change. Z10 = no more BIS. So without BIS is a Z10 user really a subscriber?

Too add BIS = revenue for BlackBerry

Does anyone know what the revenue models are for the BB10 devices?

BES CALS essentially (and some BES10 straight buys).
Yet remember, prior to the "crisis", 80% of BBRY revenues came from devices gross margins. This is not a new model; thy've tested it before.

[josaki]

Boy oh boy don't folk know how to get page clicks. Write garbage and watch Google analytics.

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[superdirt]

BES CALS essentially (and some BES10 straight buys).
Yet remember, prior to the "crisis", 80% of BBRY revenues came from devices gross margins. This is not a new model; thy've tested it before.

Do you actually mean that 80% of their profit came frome device sales?

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[Superfly_FR]

Do you actually mean that 80% of their profit came frome device sales?

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Must say the 80% is somehow approximative, but basically it was the biggest (by far) revenue source.
Have to find the blog post of Chris about that to sort it out ... Will update.

edit: Not found the article I had in mind but this may help to understand how services revenues are splitted between BES and BIS:

But for the sake of argument, let's go with 60% service revenue being BIS, the other 40% being from BES. That's about what most people are calculating with their various estimates, and I think it's a good ballpark for discussion.

[Thunderbuck]

BES CALS essentially (and some BES10 straight buys).
Yet remember, prior to the "crisis", 80% of BBRY revenues came from devices gross margins. This is not a new model; thy've tested it before.

I don't think even BES CALs can be calculated in this figure anymore, at least not BES10 ones. They don't represent ongoing revenue.

This BGR piece is a huge red herring, and I've made a couple of comments on it on their page. The "subscriber" metric WILL DECLINE. If it doesn't do it this quarter, it will eventually as BB10 hits a wider audience. There was a lot of concern about this (the whole "revenue model" thing that caused a big downdraft around the end of 2012), but the general consensus is that BB is moving to a different revenue model where they'll (hopefully) recoup more revenue from device sales and licensing BES.

In essence, BGR is proclaiming doom over information that we've known for, what, a year? More?

[RubberChicken76]

"risk of a summer collapse"?

Man, for every valid point the tech bloggers make, they seem to pull something clean out of their ***.

[fedakd]

In the Q3 report, BlackBerry stated that it will change the way it calculates "subscribers" for Q4 and subsequent quarters. Your claims are a bit premature ;-)

Edit: saw your post on BGR:

It is not fraudulent to include new Z10 users because subs now = "all users with BlackBerry devices provisioned to access BlackBerry services". Check out the Q3 report if you like. It's long, but a good read if you want explicit details like these. Oh, and one more thing, considering you don't know about the subscriber calculation change, perhaps a good majority of the shorts won't either !

I don't think even BES CALs can be calculated in this figure anymore, at least not BES10 ones. They don't represent ongoing revenue.

This BGR piece is a huge red herring, and I've made a couple of comments on it on their page. The "subscriber" metric WILL DECLINE. If it doesn't do it this quarter, it will eventually as BB10 hits a wider audience. There was a lot of concern about this (the whole "revenue model" thing that caused a big downdraft around the end of 2012), but the general consensus is that BB is moving to a different revenue model where they'll (hopefully) recoup more revenue from device sales and licensing BES.

In essence, BGR is proclaiming doom over information that we've known for, what, a year? More?

[koroshiyax]

BES10 cals can be purchases as annual subscriptions, instead of perpetual licenses. This would be useful if the company goes up and down in employee count.

So there is a recurring revenue model.

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[RubberChicken76]

I don't think even BES CALs can be calculated in this figure anymore, at least not BES10 ones. They don't represent ongoing revenue.

Agree, though doesn't Apple also do some amortizing of iPhone over the term of a contract ... as least as far as revenue recognition? Wonder if they may do that as well? But I'll let someone more educated than me clarify as I've only heard it in passing.

Regardless, they probably will have a bunch of announcements to make at the earnings call ...

1. What they plan on doing about service revenue (the biggest concern)?
2. How did BlackBerry 10 do in terms of shipments and sellthrough?
3. What's the deal with the PlayBook? (Ok - not a big one, but I imagine they're going to have to say something since they seem to be low on inventory and they do break out sales).

I'm thinking we may see some rises and then a good whomp to the stop after the earnings call.

[Thunderbuck]

In the Q3 report, BlackBerry stated that it will change the way it calculates "subscribers" for Q4 and subsequent quarters. Your claims are a bit premature ;-)

Edit: saw your post on BGR:

It is not fraudulent to include new Z10 users because subs now = "all users with BlackBerry devices provisioned to access BlackBerry services". Check out the Q3 report if you like. It's long, but a good read if you want explicit details like these. Oh, and one more thing, considering you don't know about the subscriber calculation change, perhaps a good majority of the shorts won't either !

I'm not clear on how they CAN change the subscriber calculation without rendering it meaningless. You can't just add BB10 activations to "old-BB" ones, because BB still makes ongoing revenue off the old ones. As far as that goes they might as well throw PlayBook owners in there as well.

[Skeevecr]

"If the sub base shrinks by more than 2 million units, it means that BlackBerry has to rush out the new low-end models out ASAP or risk a summer collapse."

The idea that they will be rushing out a low-end model is idiotic too, we have seen leaks of that model already and it is almost certainly going to be the next one out after the q10 meaning that it is likely to be announced at BlackBerry Live in May with a June/July release date hitting the next quarter after the q10 and prior to the back to school period too.

[Dapper37]

I've said this before, BB10 users still use BIS or BES services! They will be considered active Sub's
Carriers are charging for and passing on a BIS fee to BlackBerry. Just because it no longer requires an extra plan (for all carriers, as some do. "Bell") Does not mean the fee is not there.
Again, each BB10 uses some BIS service and is considered a Sub!!!!!

[darkehawke]

It was my understanding that we used to get blackberry services delivered by BIS. Now we get blackberry services that are not delivered by BIS.
I will wait to see figures, but I also believe that the z10 can't be counted in the same pile as legacy users

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[Superfly_FR]

I've said this before, BB10 users still use BIS or BES services! They will be considered active Sub's
Carriers are charging for and passing on a BIS fee to BlackBerry. Just because it no longer requires an extra plan (for all carriers, as some do. "Bell") Does not mean the fee is not there.
Again, each BB10 uses some BIS service and is considered a Sub!!!!!

Sorry, but I don't believe so. BB10 does not use BIS, in fact it doesn't even support it.



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[belfastdispatcher]

Sorry, but I don't believe so. BB10 does not use BIS, in fact it doesn't even support it.



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BIS as such no but it still uses the noc I believe, bbm certainly does.

Fact: if the BlackBerry symbol is not present beside the signal indicator I have no access to the Internet. That's suggests to me the use of the noc with only the transport to the noc changed(directly trough the carrier's network)

[Dapper37]

[QUOTE=Superfly_FR;8163465]Sorry, but I don't believe so. BB10 does not use BIS, in fact it doesn't even support it.
.



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Ok, so it's not BIS anymore. Call it NOC services. But carriers do pay BlackBerry for services. Including non BES

[phinsphan]

Probably already been said but it will mean nothing. The Sub base is no longer the key metric.

BES install base, sales and gross margins should be looked at going forward.

RIM had less than half their current subscriber revenue in 2009 when the stock traded at $140. Ultimately the moat isn't as durable but it should help sell more phones.

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[Skeevecr]

Fact: if the BlackBerry symbol is not present beside the signal indicator I have no access to the Internet. That's suggests to me the use of the noc with only the transport to the noc changed(directly trough the carrier's network)

That is weird as the absence of that symbol doesn't harm my internet connectivity on my device it merely means that stuff needing blackberry connectivity like my work email is not going to come to my device.

[darkehawke]

That is weird as the absence of that symbol doesn't harm my internet connectivity on my device it merely means that stuff needing blackberry connectivity like my work email is not going to come to my device.

This. Mu Internet works regardless. Can't comment on email. But I need that symbol for bbm

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