[W Hoa]

Selling 3 million units would be a spectacular performance

No doubt it will be challenging for RIM to push the new device to consumers in retail stores. For example, the shipments of iPhone, Android and Windows Phone devices did not exceed 1.1 million, 0.8 million and 0.9 million, respectively, in the first three months after they were launched.

So, given the very fast growing smartphone market, RIM should aim to sell at least 1 million units of the new device in the first quarter after its launch. Anything below this would call into question the company�s ability to execute its marketing strategy while anything above 3 million units would be a spectacular performance, which will undoubtedly resurrect both the consumers� and the investors� confidence in the BlackBerry brand.

Informa Analyst Comments Ahead Of BB10 Launch

[unbreakablej]

Not sure how they can do that without the usa market but if they could manage a couple hundred thousands in the UK I'd be proud.

[cjcampbell]

Not sure how they can do that without the usa market but if they could manage a couple hundred thousands in the UK I'd be proud.

I think they mean a real quater, not 1 months worth.

[drummer_god]

didn't RIM increase production from 500,000 to 2 million units before launch?
and so, now that the phone is available in the UK, Canada and other places, would it be reasonable to assume 2 million Z10s are floating around the world, either in consumer hands or on shelves ( and back-rooms in france, and places launching on the 10th )?

if that is a fair assumption, then the reports of near sell-outs everywhere, could one draw the conclussion, that, the number of sales in less than a week of availability is already very very good?

[W Hoa]

didn't RIM increase production from 500,000 to 2 million units before launch?
and so, now that the phone is available in the UK, Canada and other places, would it be reasonable to assume 2 million Z10s are floating around the world, either in consumer hands or on shelves ( and back-rooms in france, and places launching on the 10th )?

Yes Allegedly production was ramped from 500k to 2 million. However - BlackBerry, assuming they have manufactured 5 million devices, must spread its goods over 150 carriers in over 100 countries. The math says that, if everyone got the same number of phones, which is unlikely, each country would receive 50,000 phones. No matter how you look at it I'm sure the phones are spread pretty thin. So a 'late' delivery to the US could be a good thing.

[drummer_god]

BlackBerry, assuming they have manufactured 5 million devices.

why assume they manufactured 5 million, when the report was that they recently increased production to 2 million?
where is the 5 million coming from?

i said they floated 2 million around the world ( 150 carriers in 100 countries ). if every country reports - in the coming weeks - that sales are very very well and low stock everywhere, then isn't it assumed that global sales must be atleast near 2 million?

[richardat]

didn't RIM increase production from 500,000 to 2 million units before launch?
and so, now that the phone is available in the UK, Canada and other places, would it be reasonable to assume 2 million Z10s are floating around the world, either in consumer hands or on shelves ( and back-rooms in france, and places launching on the 10th )?

if that is a fair assumption, then the reports of near sell-outs everywhere, could one draw the conclussion, that, the number of sales in less than a week of availability is already very very good?

No. For the reasons Hoa listed below, and the fact that it is possible (and I'd say very liikely...it would be smart of them to try) that BB is intentionally limiting availability. In fact, it's a much much better to assume they have NOT sold 2 million, or even 1 million. I promise you they would have announced either number. Nothing would fire sales momentum and get good press than proven numbers like that.

[RubberChicken76]

Yes production was ramped from 500k to 2 million.

RIM has not said anything about production. An analyst estimated the production change.

[drummer_god]

No. For the reasons Hoa listed below, and the fact that it is possible (and I'd say very liikely...it would be smart of them to try) that BB is intentionally limiting availability. In fact, it's a much much better to assume they have NOT sold 2 million, or even 1 million. I promise you they would have announced either number. Nothing would fire sales momentum and get good press than proven numbers like that.

i'm NOT saying they sold nearly 2 mllion units in just canada and the UK as of RIGHT NOW.. i'm saying there are 2 million units in total - even amongst countries that haven't even put them on sale yet, excluding the US.
when the Z10 is on sale in every country, with exception to the US, there will be 2 million units in circulation around the world. if there are reports from every one of those regions, stating they are nearly sold out, then close to 2 million units must be sold.

[xnwrx]

The article says : "at least 1 million units of the new device in the first quarter after its launch" and 3M and above would be spectacular.
I strongly beleive BBRY will sell close to or even more than 3M units in the 1st quarter because BBRY didn't propose any new device since 1 year or more (1.5 I think), which is an ethernity in the mobile market. So among the 80M BB user's all over the world waiting so long for a new device, if only 3% of them is going to switch to the new device, this immediately translates into 2.5M units sold. Add 500K units bought by new users to BB and we have our 3M units.
Perfr*ectly possible. Am I wrong ?

[kfh227]

didn't RIM increase production from 500,000 to 2 million units before launch?
and so, now that the phone is available in the UK, Canada and other places, would it be reasonable to assume 2 million Z10s are floating around the world, either in consumer hands or on shelves ( and back-rooms in france, and places launching on the 10th )?

if that is a fair assumption, then the reports of near sell-outs everywhere, could one draw the conclussion, that, the number of sales in less than a week of availability is already very very good?

Rational thought process. However the production number was vague. It said 1-2 million per month as being the production number. Could be 1 million for all we know.

Caveat:
I think they announced that mid December, so they've produce 1+ million phones for 1.5 months. That's atleast 1.5 million phones.

Also, they were producing before that, just at lower quantities of 500,000 a month. So, they probably made over 2 million. But, many are in the USA. Many are in countries with pending launches. Maybe half of those have sold thus far?

Also, alot of those phones are in warehouses in the USA till this whole testing baloney completes.