[Nharzhool]

Oh, hey, look! Another thread like this! I'm so happy!

/Rant Begin!:
Is there ANYBODY in these forums that doesn't ALREADY know about the harsh times that BlackBerry is going through?

We all know this already...why would anybody expect it to have gotten better? Nothing has happened since a few days ago when the last doom and gloom article/thread appeared here.

Always nice to see the same old people (you know who you are), repeating things like "if the phones were good, the market share would show it", or "the market has already spoken, BB units are DOA". Yeah, I know I'm exaggerating; but you all get my drift.

BlackBerry have made some awful mistakes, nobody is denying that. However, unless you specifically want the company to fail and BB10 to disappear, we need to bring some positive energy back to these forums.

It is extremely boring to come on here every day and see the same people just bad-mouthing the company (yes, there are also people mindlessly doing the opposite - that's not good either) on nearly every thread - then you see things like "Sent from my iPhone" or "Sent via the CrackBerry Android App" or their Avatar is a Windows Phone.

I get that people have been disappointed by BlackBerry...so have I. You know what? Grow up and move on. Either forgive and give another chance or leave...there really isn't any justifiable reason to stay otherwise.

I also get that some people have multiple devices, but I also know that a lot of these particular people don't use BB10 - for some or other reason - but still feel it's necessary to come on here and remind everybody that the devices are sub-par and lacking (every single device can have this said about it in some way or another); or to try and turn people away and towards other platforms.

So congratulations on being awesome enough to do that. We're all very proud of you...

Rant over/

On topic: I really don't care if their market share is much lower than the others. I just want them to make enough money to make niche devices of high quality and put BB10 on so that I can enjoy it; because it, for me, is the most pleasing mobile OS to use. For this, I will support the company.

[anon(5828343)]

For a country with an average salary of about $10k (per year), the iOS number seems a bit too high.

Posted via CB10

Two words: China Mobile.

Don't forget that until January of this year, China Mobile, China's largest carrier, did not sell iPhone devices. China Mobile has nearly 800 million (yes, 800 million) subscribers. Imagine that kind of sales, marketing and distribution power behind your product. China Mobile is also going heavy on upgrades to it network and iPhone figures large there.

[anon(5828343)]

You could always make the case that Chen has prudently decided not to waste promotional effort in markets where the brand has already been determined to be DOA.

Using your assumption, at the current rate, there really isn't a single market where the BBRY brand isn't DOA. Indonesia included.

[anon(5828343)]

True. Sales in one store also does not determine dominance for the entire country. Apple has a huge store in Hong Kong but the bulk of mobile phone users in Hong Kong are Android (Samsung and to some degree Sony). The bulk of the buyers at the Apple Hong Kong store are mainly from Mainland China because of the high price in the Mainland but then again those buyers are just a small fraction of the mobile phone population. Also have to take into account sales of OEM Android phones and by firms such as Lenovo which have huge market share in Mainland China.

You do realize that the Chinese middle class is estimated to be about 300 million people -- almost the size of the U.S. population, right? With a population of nearly 1.4 billion, brands don't need to rely on the "average" wage earner to profitably sell products and services in China. It can simply target a segment of the market to make it work. Why do you think high end, luxury lifestyle brands like Louis Vuitton, Cartier and Burberry target China? It's not because of the 1 billion lower income Chinese but rather because of the 300 million middle class Chinese and the higher income segment. And LV, Cartier and Burberry charge a higher premium for their brands in China than they do in the U.S. and Europe -- in fact, Chinese tourists buy even more of these luxury brands while traveling overseas because it is much cheaper than buying them at home.

Apple is well-positioned in China because it is like the LV, Cartier and Burberry of the smartphone market. When Apple released the gold iPhone 5S, it sold out in China immediately and Chinese buyers were lined up at the Apple Store on 5th Ave in NYC so they could re-sell them in China for a profit.

Don't forget, when Apple launched its partnership with China Mobile in January, the pre-orders from that carrier alone for the iPhone was about 1.2 million! (Apple-China Mobile deal a �€˜watershed�€™ moment: Tim Cook).

Those are staggering numbers.

So China isn't some backwater market. It's a massive economy that even when it "slows down" still grows at 5-7 percent a year.

[anon(5828343)]

But that's sales, any indication on the percentage of BlackBerry still in people's hands?

Posted via CB10 on my Z10STL100-10.2.1.2102

I would think that the only people that really know that stat is the NSA ()!

But I'm really not sure how different that number would be from those reported above. Since we know what the quarterly sales figures are for most of the larger manufacturers (Apple, Samsung, Blackberry, etc) and we have the estimates like those reported on this thread, unless there is a massive stock of old Blackberry OS devices that were purchased years ago and are still being used, given the poor sales numbers reported quarterly from BBRY over the past couple of years, it would be reasonable to conclude that the sales numbers don't differ too greatly from the proportion of smartphones currently in use.

In addition, I've never had a Blackberry device last more than 18 months (the keyboard would start to malfunction or, on the older devices, the trackball would need near constant replacement -- yes, I was a nerd that bought after market trackballs so I could replace them myself). With an 18-24 month shelf-life, it is highly doubtful that there is a massive enough cache of BBOS users out there to make a wit of difference to these marketshare numbers. We do know, without a doubt, that there isn't even a tiny cache of Z10/Q10 users out there to be relevant since BB10 sales figures have been pathetic from launch.

[lawguyman]

BlackBerry's goal is to be profitable selling around 10 million phones a year.

BlackBerry isn't trying to sell in volume. Market share is meaningless at this point.

Posted via CB10

[JeepBB]

FWIW, Comscore had the user base of both BB and Windows Phone on the same number (circa 3% iirc) of the global market.

WinPhone's userbase is up to around 50M, so I guess that makes BB's user base around 50M too.

Around 6M of that 50M is BB10.

Only BB, and the NSA 😉, would know for sure of course.

JBB

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

In addition, I've never had a Blackberry device last more than 18 months (the keyboard would start to malfunction or, on the older devices, the trackball would need near constant replacement -- yes, I was a nerd that bought after market trackballs so I could replace them myself). With an 18-24 month shelf-life, it is highly doubtful that there is a massive enough cache of BBOS users out there to make a wit of difference to these marketshare numbers. We do know, without a doubt, that there isn't even a tiny cache of Z10/Q10 users out there to be relevant since BB10 sales figures have been pathetic from launch.

I think you might be wrong about the life of BlackBerries, yes parts go bad, but they can be repaired. I know that here in the US, a number of DoD agencies still have BBOS devices, and some of them are easily 3 or 4 years old (maybe they bought warehouses full). And from what I've read, older BlackBerry's have gotten a second life in many of these developing nations where things are not as disposable as they are in more effluent locations. People keep something that works until it can't be repaired, they don't buy new just because there is something new.

But I will agree that by looking at number of devices sold in 2012, 2103, 2014... you then account for failures (device or owner), owners with multiple devices... It's easy to see that BlackBerry's might have fewer than 50 Million Active Devices today, and still falling.

[anon(5828343)]

I think you might be wrong about the life of BlackBerries, yes parts go bad, but they can be repaired. I know that here in the US, a number of DoD agencies still have BBOS devices, and some of them are easily 3 or 4 years old (maybe they bought warehouses full). And from what I've read, older BlackBerry's have gotten a second life in many of these developing nations where things are not as disposable as they are in more effluent locations. People keep something that works until it can't be repaired, they don't buy new just because there is something new.

But I will agree that by looking at number of devices sold in 2012, 2103, 2014... you then account for failures (device or owner), owners with multiple devices... It's easy to see that BlackBerry's might have fewer than 50 Million Active Devices today, and still falling.

You're absolutely right about device longevity in developing countries. I was in South Africa a couple of years ago and was amazed at how old the Blackberry was that the driver we had was using. Thanks for pointing that out.

[wincyUt]

Oh, hey, look! Another thread like this! I'm so happy!

/Rant Begin!:
Is there ANYBODY in these forums that doesn't ALREADY know about the harsh times that BlackBerry is going through?

We all know this already...why would anybody expect it to have gotten better? Nothing has happened since a few days ago when the last doom and gloom article/thread appeared here.

Always nice to see the same old people (you know who you are), repeating things like "if the phones were good, the market share would show it", or "the market has already spoken, BB units are DOA". Yeah, I know I'm exaggerating; but you all get my drift.

BlackBerry have made some awful mistakes, nobody is denying that. However, unless you specifically want the company to fail and BB10 to disappear, we need to bring some positive energy back to these forums.

It is extremely boring to come on here every day and see the same people just bad-mouthing the company (yes, there are also people mindlessly doing the opposite - that's not good either) on nearly every thread - then you see things like "Sent from my iPhone" or "Sent via the CrackBerry Android App" or their Avatar is a Windows Phone.

I get that people have been disappointed by BlackBerry...so have I. You know what? Grow up and move on. Either forgive and give another chance or leave...there really isn't any justifiable reason to stay otherwise.

I also get that some people have multiple devices, but I also know that a lot of these particular people don't use BB10 - for some or other reason - but still feel it's necessary to come on here and remind everybody that the devices are sub-par and lacking (every single device can have this said about it in some way or another); or to try and turn people away and towards other platforms.

So congratulations on being awesome enough to do that. We're all very proud of you...

Rant over/

On topic: I really don't care if their market share is much lower than the others. I just want them to make enough money to make niche devices of high quality and put BB10 on so that I can enjoy it; because it, for me, is the most pleasing mobile OS to use. For this, I will support the company.

I couldn't have said this any better than you have. Why on earth do people expect something to change when nothing major "device-wise" has happened since the "For Sale sign" last year. SMH

[anon(5828343)]

BlackBerry's goal is to be profitable selling around 10 million phones a year.

BlackBerry isn't trying to sell in volume. Market share is meaningless at this point.

Posted via CB10

Chen must stand in front of the mirror repeating those three sentences every morning hoping that he'll eventually believe himself.

If 10 million were truly and honestly the acceptable, profitability target, BBRY wouldn't be pushing a sub-$200 mass market phone in Indonesia. Key words being mass market. This is more of the utter confusion emanating from the C-suite in Waterloo.

Companies like Foxconn aren't charities and they certainly won't dedicate factory lines for Blackberry at 10 million devices a year (2.5 million a quarter) when other customers like Apple are targeting 15 to 20 times that number. If you've ever seen a Foxconn facility in China (I visited one in Shenzhen as part of a trade mission), you'd see that they are basically mini-cities with highly efficient production lines involving not thousands, not tens of thousands, but hundreds of thousands of employees assembling, building, packing millions of units of product 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You have to wonder, then, what kind of "economies of scale" would even be possible when a customer like BBRY comes to you talking about a 10 million device order involving not one but several different potential device models requiring different components (touch-screen, physical keyboard, screen size, batteries, antennae, etc).

The 10 million figure just doesn't make any sense to anyone who has any knowledge of manufacturing especially in places like China where volume is critical to ensuring a competitive pricing structure.

The bottom line is, we don't know because they don't know...and, to be more precise, Chen doesn't know.

[crucial bbq]

Looks like the market share for BB will reach 0% is many countries...

http://cdn.macrumors.com/article-new...hone_sales.jpg

The problem with Android is that Android might be a singular OS but it is not a singular handset manufacturer. BB10 will never outsell Android as a whole in particular considering that there are many cheap Android handsets on the market. BlackBerry can however outsell individual handset manufacturers of Android phones if they get their act together.

I am fairly certain that Chen realizes BlackBerry can no longer focus on "premium" handsets sold at a premium price. I am not sure about the rest of the world but here in the U.S. the Curve series was fairly popular. Not because they were/are cheap BlackBerries but because they were cheap phones, period. If BlackBerry brings the Z3 into other major world markets and truly kept the price low I would bet good money that sales would increase tremendously. I am not too familiar with the markets outside of the U.S. but I know that if BlackBerry brought the Z3 to the U.S. and sold through the likes of MetroPCS, Wal-Mart (Straight Talk), Cricket, and a few others the phone would sell like crazy...assuming it retains its current Jakarta price point.

[crucial bbq]

...to add...

If BlackBerry brought the Z3 to the U.S. by the end of summer 2014 it could easily outsell WinPhones by the end of the year.

[early2bed]

There's no way that a single company maintains a competitive smartphone platform on less than 1-2% of the market no matter how small the niche is. A smartphone has to do certain basic things and the number of those things increases on a yearly basis. Google advances the platform with its pocket change and ecosystem. Apple advances it with huge hardware margins. Microsoft does it with software and services revenue.

[anon(5828343)]

There's no way that a single company maintains a competitive smartphone platform on less than 1-2% of the market no matter how small the niche is. A smartphone has to do certain basic things and the number of those things increases on a yearly basis. Google advances the platform with its pocket change and ecosystem. Apple advances it with huge hardware margins. Microsoft does it with software and services revenue.

Excellent point. Not to mention that given BBRY's unique OS and lack of a hardware ecosystem (for example, no tablet and no ancilliary services like Google with Gmail and the search engine), it's hard to imagine how BBRY can actually even make things work with a publicly stated target of 10 million devices per year. Maybe this is just Chen's way of aiming super low so as to be able to declare victory and get his back o' cash.

[kbz1960]

Excellent point. Not to mention that given BBRY's unique OS and lack of a hardware ecosystem (for example, no tablet and no ancilliary services like Google with Gmail and the search engine), it's hard to imagine how BBRY can actually even make things work with a publicly stated target of 10 million devices per year. Maybe this is just Chen's way of aiming super low so as to be able to declare victory and get his back o' cash.

By not advertising to consumers and corporate BES fees. How many does it take to keep corporations happy? Guess since BBRY isn't courting consumers we can't consider the consumer world?

[hamsterwheel]

So here's a little story. My 8yr old son knows I love BlackBerry. He's an Apple fan of course LOL.

But this morning he says:

Him: Are you the first person to have this new Z30?
Me: No why?
Him: Well I haven't seen any commercial on it. I saw one for your old Z10....once.
Me: Uhm...
Him: If we don't see commercials, then the company will shut down right?
Me:Uhm
Him: No one will know about this phone
Me: Uhm..

You get my point. Even an 8yr old sees it.

[JeepBB]

So here's a little story. My 8yr old son knows I love BlackBerry. He's an Apple fan of course LOL.

But this morning he says:

Him: Are you the first person to have this new Z30?
Me: No why?
Him: Well I haven't seen any commercial on it. I saw one for your old Z10....once.
Me: Uhm...
Him: If we don't see commercials, then the company will shut down right?
Me:Uhm
Him: No one will know about this phone
Me: Uhm..

You get my point. Even an 8yr old sees it.

This made me chuckle.

I have huge respect for the clarity with which kids often see the world, and that they just tell it like it is. Adults often overcomplicate things.

😊

JBB

[Ethereo]

Chen must stand in front of the mirror repeating those three sentences every morning hoping that he'll eventually believe himself.

If 10 million were truly and honestly the acceptable, profitability target, BBRY wouldn't be pushing a sub-$200 mass market phone in Indonesia. Key words being mass market. This is more of the utter confusion emanating from the C-suite in Waterloo.

Companies like Foxconn aren't charities and they certainly won't dedicate factory lines for Blackberry at 10 million devices a year (2.5 million a quarter) when other customers like Apple are targeting 15 to 20 times that number. If you've ever seen a Foxconn facility in China (I visited one in Shenzhen as part of a trade mission), you'd see that they are basically mini-cities with highly efficient production lines involving not thousands, not tens of thousands, but hundreds of thousands of employees assembling, building, packing millions of units of product 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You have to wonder, then, what kind of "economies of scale" would even be possible when a customer like BBRY comes to you talking about a 10 million device order involving not one but several different potential device models requiring different components (touch-screen, physical keyboard, screen size, batteries, antennae, etc).

The 10 million figure just doesn't make any sense to anyone who has any knowledge of manufacturing especially in places like China where volume is critical to ensuring a competitive pricing structure.

The bottom line is, we don't know because they don't know...and, to be more precise, Chen doesn't know.

So you know that Chen doesnt know, lol. I import goodies from China and have seen my supplier factory , I am a small customer compared to others and get a price that is only like 2 o 3% above of those, you know how? they just transfer the people from one to another assembly line, as easy as that, as long as they have all the employees busy doing things, they are happy, whoever is the client.

[sentimentGX4]

...to add...

If BlackBerry brought the Z3 to the U.S. by the end of summer 2014 it could easily outsell WinPhones by the end of the year.

I highly, highly doubt it. The Z3 is not as good as a value as its made out to be on these forums.

In the US, the Lumia 520 with comparable CPU costs 50 USD on sale. Consumers are unlike to pay 3x for the extra features. The Moto G with plainly better specs than the Z3 has carrier variants such as for Boost Mobile, Cricket, and Verizon selling for ~100 USD. The Samsung Galaxy Light is another better spec'ed phone that recently sold for 130 USD on sale.

I project that the fair market price for the Z3 based on its specs in the US would be ~100 USD ATM, in which case it would fail because it is running BB10. If Z3 wants to be an eye opener value like the 520 when it first launched, it will need to be ~50 USD. Even then, if the next iteration of the 520 comes with an improved processor and the same price point, the Z3 would be quickly relegated to e-waste.

The primary problem with the Z3 is that Blackberry was too stingy on the processor. Because of it's ancient processor, the Z3 is not a competitive device in the current smartphone market. Currently the Z3 is pretty much the same as the Q5. It's another overpriced phone from Blackberry that some fans are lauding as the next low tier value savior.

[lawguyman]

Chen must stand in front of the mirror repeating those three sentences every morning hoping that he'll eventually believe himself.

If 10 million were truly and honestly the acceptable, profitability target, BBRY wouldn't be pushing a sub-$200 mass market phone in Indonesia. Key words being mass market. This is more of the utter confusion emanating from the C-suite in Waterloo.

Companies like Foxconn aren't charities and they certainly won't dedicate factory lines for Blackberry at 10 million devices a year (2.5 million a quarter) when other customers like Apple are targeting 15 to 20 times that number. If you've ever seen a Foxconn facility in China (I visited one in Shenzhen as part of a trade mission), you'd see that they are basically mini-cities with highly efficient production lines involving not thousands, not tens of thousands, but hundreds of thousands of employees assembling, building, packing millions of units of product 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. You have to wonder, then, what kind of "economies of scale" would even be possible when a customer like BBRY comes to you talking about a 10 million device order involving not one but several different potential device models requiring different components (touch-screen, physical keyboard, screen size, batteries, antennae, etc).

The 10 million figure just doesn't make any sense to anyone who has any knowledge of manufacturing especially in places like China where volume is critical to ensuring a competitive pricing structure.

The bottom line is, we don't know because they don't know...and, to be more precise, Chen doesn't know.

I disagree. Chen is talking about being profitable with 10 million devices as a starting point. If he can make money at those levels, he can justify trying to expand the business.

Foxconn, like other Chinese companies, is looking for a higher profile. It is tired of being a behind the scenes low margin assembler. It wants to design and market it's own products and get the higher margins associated with doing those things. Foxconn's goal is probably to own BlackBerry. It is not looking for immediate profit. It is thinking long term.





Posted via CB10

[trsbbs]

...to add...

If BlackBerry brought the Z3 to the U.S. by the end of summer 2014 it could easily outsell WinPhones by the end of the year.

Not a chance without LTE.



Posted via Verizon Z10 - OS v10.1.2.2174

[kbz1960]

Not a chance without LTE.



Posted via Verizon Z10 - OS v10.1.2.2174

I thought the version for here is going to be LTE?

[anon(5828343)]

So you know that Chen doesnt know, lol. I import goodies from China and have seen my supplier factory , I am a small customer compared to others and get a price that is only like 2 o 3% above of those, you know how? they just transfer the people from one to another assembly line, as easy as that, as long as they have all the employees busy doing things, they are happy, whoever is the client.

I think you're 100% correct if the exact same components and processes are used regardless of the customer -- it is especially true for low value added production lines in China (or even Bangladesh) like textiles/garments, furniture assembly and other similar consumer good. The same would go for assembly of LCD screens or TVs. A Chinese factory doesn't really care if their employees are installing a 5" touchscreen on an Apple, BB, Samsung or whatever device or assembling a 32" Samsung, LG, Sony or whatever brand TV.

I am not sure you would have the same 2-3% price differential, however, if you were committing to 1-2% of the factory's production capacity and requiring some degree of customization of your product. For a firm as large as Foxconn, such a tiny order commitment simply won't allow it to dedicate a production line.

From what I've seen, however, Blackberry devices -- especially those that have the physical keyboard -- don't have identical components as Apple or the other larger smartphone brands.

In addition, how would Apple react to Foxconn using Apple's manufacturing volumes to allow Blackberry access to volume discounted components and product lines? In your case, I highly doubt your supplier would reward your low volumes by marking your costs up by a token amount versus their higher volume customers. Furthermore, I would think that those higher volume customers of theirs are not in direct competition with you. If they are competitors then your supplier is taking a huge risk by giving you such a good deal.

[anon(5828343)]

I disagree. Chen is talking about being profitable with 10 million devices as a starting point. If he can make money at those levels, he can justify trying to expand the business.

Foxconn, like other Chinese companies, is looking for a higher profile. It is tired of being a behind the scenes low margin assembler. It wants to design and market it's own products and get the higher margins associated with doing those things. Foxconn's goal is probably to own BlackBerry. It is not looking for immediate profit. It is thinking long term.





Posted via CB10

Chen may or may not mean that...we don't really know and I doubt Chen really knows when he throws out numbers like 10 million smartphones and profitability. 10 million is no more credible than 1 million or 100,000 or 10,000 or 100. It's a number that has zero merit other than it is in line with BB's current sales performance of a little over 5 million per year (if you take the most recent quarter's sales performance of 1.3 million smartphones sold as a guide) and we know that those numbers are neither profitable nor sustainable.

While your speculation on Foxconn could be true, it conflicts directly with statements from Foxconn executives.

To wit: "Hon Hai is the largest electronic manufacturing service company in the world,” said Mr. Chiu, the Foxconn executive. “We are the platform for all the brand-name customers, and to have our own brand does not suit the company policy." (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/07/bu...ewanted=2&_r=0)

In other words, Foxconn is hardly in a position to cut its nose to spite its face by launching its own brand to compete with its own customers the way HTC did when it decided to go it alone and launch its own branded smartphones and devices.

If they were intent on doing as you suggest, however, they certainly could do much better in terms of a brand acquisition than Blackberry or to use Blackberry to go up against its largest customer, Apple.

Finally, let's not forget that Lenovo attempted to purchase Blackberry and was rebuffed by the Canadian government for national security reasons. While Foxconn is not a Chinese company but rather a Taiwanese one, I would still venture to guess that any potential acquisition by Foxconn of Blackberry will be subject to the same scrutiny as Lenovo given Foxconn extensive holdings and activities in China.