[BBPandy]

This probably leaves out N.A. of the "Wave 1".

I thought the original plan was Canada, UK & a few other countries, followed shortly after with the USA. The reason USA was said to be a bit later was due to carrier delays....however that was back in June right after the delay was announced, I'm sure a lot of things have changed since then. I hope US carriers don't delay the american release. I also think that RIM needs to get BB10 into the USA ASAP.

[pythons]

I agree with this. BB is going to be a hard sell in a market that has recently rejected them.

It is much easier to retain a customer than it is to get them back.

When a company looses touch with what it's customers are demanding...
...Another company ends up supplying those customers with their demands.
...RIM totally lost touch with what both business & privite users were demanding.

I agree with you that it will be a hard sell but RIM can pull it off...
...They just need to show North America that they "get it".
...Deliver some standard 101 business apps for BBX.
...And for Christ's sake get Hulu or Netflix on the Playbook.

Until that no one is North America is really going to take them seriously.

[hootyhoo]

When a company looses touch with what it's customers are demanding...
...Another company ends up supplying those customers with their demands.
...RIM totally lost touch with what both business & privite users were demanding.

I agree with you that it will be a hard sell but RIM can pull it off...
...They just need to show North America that they "get it".
...Deliver some standard 101 business apps for BBX.
...And for Christ's sake get Hulu or Netflix on the Playbook.

Until that no one is North America is really going to take them seriously.

Agreed, and the one thing that they better get right is a vibrant ecosystem. For better or worse, it is what the masses want. The os could be the greatest thing since individually wrapped cheese slices but if BB doesn't offer the most popular apps and a large selection of them, they will not gain consumers attention.

I'm not a current user of BB, but I really hope that they get it right.

[qbnkelt]

All I can say is they had better get a BB10 device in my hand in the first quarter. I am seriously needing something new from BB.

[Wino Ryder]

I wouldn't be surprised if NA or at least the USA was in the 2nd wave it makes sense to launch in as many of the we love BB markets first then fair and good reviews of the phones and the OS can trickle in to the world and people will be more willing to look at BB in the future in markets like the USA.

I am sure Canada and the UK will be in the first wave as well.

I agree with this. It is sound reasoning. Launching into the USA in wave #1 is a bad idea for the very reasons you outlined. Right now the US market is in an Apple loving frenzy from droves of people camping out for days waiting for the Iphone 5 to release. In their minds, right now, nothing can compete or even compare. It is not a level playing field. Launching into the US market in Q1 is still way too soon IMO. The reviews for Iphone 5 now are too well recieved. The tech bloggers and journalist reviewers in Q1 will bash and beat BlackBerry just like they have all along, no matter how revolutionary it may be, riding high and reporting for the masses a device that can do no wrong. They are feeding on and into a frenzied hype whether its justifiable or not. RIMM will be heading straight into this in Q1.

Let RIMM proceed as planned with a Q1 launch, only not in North America. Let them launch in South Africa and Nigeria as Thorsten suggested, followed by Britain and the rest of europe. Only then will BB 10 get a 'just' review by tech bloggers and journalists abroad, to filter into the North American market at a more agreeable time. This is the approach I would take, as the Apple and Iphone frenzy will be more diminished. Then it would be a level playing field. Let North America hear about BB 10 from the rest of the world, from countries much more willing to give BlackBerry it's fair due.

[Cesare21]

I agree with this. It is sound reasoning. Launching into the USA in wave #1 is a bad idea for the very reasons you outlined. Right now the US market is in an Apple loving frenzy from droves of people camping out for days waiting for the Iphone 5 to release. In their minds, right now, nothing can compete or even compare. It is not a level playing field. Launching into the US market in Q1 is still way too soon IMO. The reviews for Iphone 5 now are too well recieved. The tech bloggers and journalist reviewers in Q1 will bash and beat BlackBerry just like they have all along, no matter how revolutionary it may be, riding high and reporting for the masses a device that can do no wrong. They are feeding on and into a frenzied hype whether its justifiable or not. RIMM will be heading straight into this in Q1.

Let RIMM proceed as planned with a Q1 launch, only not in North America. Let them launch in South Africa and Nigeria as Thorsten suggested, followed by Britain and the rest of europe. Only then will BB 10 get a 'just' review by tech bloggers and journalists abroad, to filter into the North American market at a more agreeable time. This is the approach I would take, as the Apple and Iphone frenzy will be more diminished. Then it would be a level playing field. Let North America hear about BB 10 from the rest of the world, from countries much more willing to give BlackBerry it's fair due.

I completely agree with you, and there have been quotes floating around saying RIM will launch BB10 in NA a little later than Europe and other markets. It makes common sense. Let some unbiased and positive reviews trickle through the fourth estate in NA (or US specifically) which makes people a bit eager for BB10.

US could be the biggest and the meanest, but typically RIM will play the BB10 tune to their own biggest and meanest markets.

[Dapper37]

"In the US, we are clearly a turnaround case. In the rest of the world, we are still growing our overall global subscriber base. Other regions in the world are more than compensating for losses in the USA.�

Interesting Quote. for anyone that though RIM was going to reduce the number of subscribers in the coming quarter.

[abwan11]

"In the US, we are clearly a turnaround case. In the rest of the world, we are still growing our overall global subscriber base. Other regions in the world are more than compensating for losses in the USA.�

Interesting Quote. for anyone that though RIM was going to reduce the number of subscribers in the coming quarter.

Seems misleading to say: "more than compensating for losses in the USA", unless rim is going to show up with "more than" a loss this quarter, I say their FOS.

[W Hoa]

Interesting Quote. for anyone that though RIM was going to reduce the number of subscribers in the coming quarter.

What is equally interesting is that the full text of the South African interview won't be (can't be?) released until this Tuesday. The day TH gives his speech at Blackberry Jam Americas

[sk8er_tor]

"In the US, we are clearly a turnaround case. In the rest of the world, we are still growing our overall global subscriber base. Other regions in the world are more than compensating for losses in the USA.�

Interesting Quote. for anyone that though RIM was going to reduce the number of subscribers in the coming quarter.

At the BB Jam session in Kitchener about a month ago, it was said that the subscriber base was "approaching 80 million."

Link:BlackBerry 10: It’s Becoming a Developer’s Paradise

[Nogrentain]

I am assuming that he means they are gaining more subs than they are losing, but it's getting them into a loss now since developing smartphone market sales are primarily curves vs the higher profit generating bolds and torches more commonly found in Western markets.

I am not so sure about it being a good idea that RIM should hold off in the US, even by a month. However, I could see it work out in terms of reviews and, potentially more important, signalling a shifting trend towards other markets becoming just as important as the US one. Nigeria has 100 million people. South Africa 50. Indonesia over 200. Philippines over 90. Malaysia over 80. India 1.2 billion. Etc. The growth is exponential and generally expected to reach similar smartphone penetration levels that exist in the West by 2015. Saudi Arabia is already approaching Canada in pure numbers of smartphone sales, and RIM is by and large number one there. The days of bending over backwards for American consumers are rapidly ending.

[Dapper37]

Seems misleading to say: "more than compensating for losses in the USA", unless rim is going to show up with "more than" a loss this quarter, I say their FOS.

Speaking of FOS, I have NO reason to believe you know what your talking about, even if the chances of a loss this quarter seem likely.
I will say, that In the bigger picture people and the media pay attention to Market share, If RIM can maintain the #3 spot until BB10 arrives. This becomes a real momentom builder. This now seems most likely that they will!
The number 3 title is what all the nay sayers are going around saying is up for grabs, yet MSWP has never come close to getting there. Once BB10 arrives their chances are going nowhere.

[cgk]

No in the bigger picture they pay attention to margins and profitability - it is likely that RIM did increase share while at the same time margins fall and losses increased.

[texazzpete]

Nigeria

925000 Blackberry subscribers in 2010
2.4 million BB subscribers in Q1 2012...and growing.

more than half of this number OS6 and above devices.

Still no access to Blackberry beta zone.

It's about time RIM got their heads out of their backside and start focusing on their passionate African markets.

[cgk]

Bluntly part of the equation is that those passionate African markets are on very low service plans, so while the raw numbers look good, the arpu is much lower - that will change and is changing but it is not so quick that the market dynamic will completely change in 2012-2013.

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

[texazzpete]

Bluntly part of the equation is that those passionate African markets are on very low service plans, so while the raw numbers look good, the arpu is much lower - that will change and is changing but it is not so quick that the market dynamic will completely change in 2012-2013.

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

Full BIS plan in Nigeria is around $18 per month...on off contract devices that were already 100% paid for.

You're saying this is much less than what is paid in the US, for example? bear in mind that these are completely off contract monthly fees...virtually nobody buys any phone on contract here

[LiteBulb]

i believe the other market they should look at is Indonesia. BB market there is huge. Platforms other than BB are like non-existence.

[cgk]

RIM themselves say in their own quarterly reports, the vast majority are on the low service tiers rather than the high end, that is why the �average� revenue per user is low.

Moreover, RIM doesn't take all of that $18 - it is spilt with carriers, how much is unclear but we know that carriers are getting more aggressive about it.

Sent from my Lumia 800 using Board Express

[lorax1284]

I hope the three devices in 2 tiers are Bold, Torch and "some new name for the full slab touchscreen device other than 'Torch Also'", and that they are both available in "developed markets" and "emerging markets" priced models.

The branding should reflect the form factor: "Bold" and "Curve" are both keyboard + touchscreen devices... Torch is the slider... "some other name not Torch Also" should be the full touch screen device.

There should be high and low cost versions of both. "Bold X100" and "Bold T100" or something where the X is the high-end and the T is the low end... "Bold X series" and "Bold T series", then "Torch X series" and "Torch T series"... brand by FORM FACTOR, and sub-brand by "quality". The current branding was used for devices that all had keyboards, but in a world where there are three distinct form factors now, I think three brands organized by form factor would go a long way to distinguishing between the device types.

I don't really get how there can be high- and low-end sliders... sure you could dumb down the processor, ram, screen resolution, but I haven't heard much at all about how the high-end vs. low-end devices will be differentiated. Any news on that front (links?)

[z1nsane]

So I met a Nigerian student at the university I go to and he explained to me that one of the HUGE reasons why BB's are popular in Nigeria is because of the reliability. He said if someone sends an SMS to a friend, telecom networks are so unreliable that SMS can arrive days later, which is why BBM is such a big thing there.

So assuming the BB10 really doesn't use BIS, wouldn't the reliability of the new BB's be poor for the South American users if BBM uses telecom networks and thus be a big failure?