Apple, Samsung Headed Into Decline Globally: Fitch
- Interesting read from the HuffPost today. It would seem we are now on the other side of the Bell curve in the Smart phone industry:
It's probably too soon to call Apple the new BlackBerry, but the fruit salad that is the smartphone industry is undergoing another shakeup.
Apple and Samsung, the world’s dominant smartphone brands, are starting to lose market share to cheaper emerging-market competitors, Fitch ratings agency warned Tuesday.
For now, the largest threat to the two companies comes from the developing world, where brands unknown in the West are quickly devouring Apple and Samsung’s business, thanks to lower prices.
Fitch says Apple risks losing a fifth of its global market share within a year, falling to 25 per cent of smartphone sales from 31 per cent in 2013.
Samsung could see its market share drop a notch as well, to 14 per cent from 15 per cent, Fitch predicted.
“We expect the big two's combined smartphone shipment volume to stagnate at around 450 million-460 million units in 2014 [down from 467 million in 2013], even as the global smartphone market rises by around 20 per cent to 1.2 billion,” Fitch said.
Much of the growth in the smartphone market will come from the developing world because developed markets are saturated at this point, Fitch said. China and India will account for 60 per cent of global growth in smartphone sales.
"Local handset makers including China's Xiaomi, Lenovo, Huawei and India's Micromax Informatics are the principal large competitors for Apple and Samsung," Fitch wrote. These competitors are selling phones in the $100-to-$300 U.S. range, while Apple and Samsung phones retail for closer to $600, without carrier subsidies.
In developed countries, profitability is falling for smartphone makers because there is little room for growth and competitors are making cheaper phones and undercutting the big players, Fitch said.
Apple is expected to release the iPhone 6 in September, but Fitch doesn’t believe it will halt the company’s decline.
“Developments are likely to be incremental rather than revolutionary,” Fitch wrote. “We believe that the innovations — which include curved screens and compatible wearable devices — are unlikely to change the trend facing Samsung and Apple.”
Apple shares were up about 0.3 per cent on the NASDAQ Tuesday mid-day, despite the report. Apple shares are up about 30 per cent since the start of the year, while Samsung shares are flat year-to-date.
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/08...n_5671916.htmlLast edited by stealthbob; 08-12-14 at 03:13 PM. Reason: Added link
08-12-14 03:08 PMLike 0 - I thought it was Android that had more share than Apple, and that Samsung was gaining on Apple.anon(7808135) likes this.08-12-14 03:27 PMLike 1
- I also understood Samsung is the world's leading manufacturer, but Apple sells the most smartphones with the iPhone.08-12-14 03:32 PMLike 0
- This is a trend that should worry all premium handset makers, especially BBRY where they have a really high cost structure comparatively. The race to bottom is very similar to that experienced by the PC markets. Apple has previous experience surviving and differentiating themselves thru design and a vivid ecosystem. What do others, especially BBRY, have to fight this trend? I think looking forward Chen's decision to focus most resources on the enterprise will definitely be validated. The handset with keyboard is a good differentiation for BBRY without too much competition.08-12-14 06:02 PMLike 3
- This is a trend that should worry all premium handset makers, especially BBRY where they have a really high cost structure comparatively. The race to bottom is very similar to that experienced by the PC markets. Apple has previous experience surviving and differentiating themselves thru design and a vivid ecosystem. What do others, especially BBRY, have to fight this trend? I think looking forward Chen's decision to focus most resources on the enterprise will definitely be validated. The handset with keyboard is a good differentiation for BBRY without too much competition.
I wonder what will happen when all these millennials start getting family's and settling down, security may be their top issue to deal with.08-12-14 06:17 PMLike 0 - OK but this article isn't good for BlackBerry because BlackBerry cannot compete with Apple or Samsung on cost or ecosystem currently, so they will be in even deeper trouble against these low end players threatening the big guys. Eventually the high end smartphone market will hit saturation, and at that point Apple will be in trouble, at least from a stock perspective. Even though they will still be making money hand over fist, the market will demand that they grow increase profits somehow. When they can't get the growth the market wants, stock will tank.
Posted with a BlackBerry Z1008-12-14 06:52 PMLike 3 - Yea but BB is not pigeon holed into just being a device seller...with MDM BB has positioned itself nicely into the segment that has the value to be device agnostic, devices will be made on the cheap for low margin...the back end is where the margin is made.
History has shown its not the hardware that secures your future, owning the software that runs on everything is the ticket. I am not delusional in thinking that BB is the top horse to bet on but you have to admit they are well positioned to be in the race in some form.ricocan likes this.08-12-14 08:18 PMLike 1 - Apple will be fine. In those emerging markets they are selling Iphone 4/4s as entry aspirational devices and of course they'll take the largest chunk of the premium market, in a couple years Iphone will be like Macs 10-20% of the market but huge profits. Samsungs best days are behind it, the top end Android device market is about tapped out and anything below they have huge competition from nimble OEMs willing take a smaller slice.Eumaeus and sentimentGX4 like this.08-12-14 08:40 PMLike 2
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http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...-share-wh.html
http://communities-dominate.blogs.co...t-data-in.html
Posted via CB10eyesopen1111 likes this.08-12-14 08:57 PMLike 1 - Yes, market share is what Apple and Samsung live by, but they have also built a gigantic dedicated user base along the way.
Once the iPhone 6 is released, it will sell like hot cakes and they will add a few more billion to their already huge cash reserves.
Plus you have the PC side where Apple has also gained not only in market share but in brand loyalty. They are now a corporate Titan and are going to be around for a long time to come because they have embedded themselves into the culture here in the USA which is the best marketing plan I can think of.
Sent using the CB forums app.Eumaeus likes this.08-13-14 03:46 AMLike 1 -
As it is, Apple knows that it will lose market share as the "next billion smartphone users" buy smartphones and choose ultra low end Androids; but, none of this matters to Apple because the profit margin is in high end devices and Apple has played this market extremely well. Refer to how outlandishly priced Macs are vs. PCs. No other OEM even comes close anymore but Apple won't budge on its archaic price structure.
The company that will really suffer is Samsung. Its smartphone empire is heavily built on the low and mid range and the effect is already being felt on its earnings report (esp. when comparing to Apple's ER performance). In the high end, it is increasingly being challenged by LG as well. Samsung's reign as top Android OEM has peaked and there will soon be opening for new players.08-13-14 04:15 AMLike 2 - There is a difference in losing marketshare and losing your market....
Yes Apple and Samsung's growth may slow... but I don't see either one selling fewer devices. Samsung is a little more vulnerable as being only a Hardware OEM. Apple on the other hand continues to make money on every device sold. And there is a reason they made that deal with IBM as it will mostly liky lead to additional revenues for Apple along with selling more devices.
I know BlackBerry has to pay of the "plug-ins" that allow BES to manage iOS and Android. I wonder how much money (if any) ends up trickling down to Apple?
OP either way I think this new group of OEM's are going to hurt BlackBerry more than these two giants. Have a feeling the the BES portion of the BlackBerry user base is pretty small and that the Consumer portion of the userbase is the much bigger portion. With a crippled ecosystem and hardware that is always 12 months behind. I'm thinking that in the long term very few "consumers" will stick with BlackBerry.08-13-14 10:32 AMLike 0 -
Blackberry does not have to beat out iOS and Android to be a profitable company, it just needs to find their segment and be the best at it.08-13-14 10:46 AMLike 0 - How well is the z3 doing in india?? what are people saying about it compared to Indian manufactured phones? Cause I believe the z3 is priced below $200 in India. Which brings it inline with the range that they talk about in the article. But if the people of India are supporting micromax cause of national pride(ie want to support local business) or even lower prices then blackberry might have some trouble. What do you guys think?08-13-14 11:13 AMLike 0
- How well is the z3 doing in india?? what are people saying about it compared to Indian manufactured phones? Cause I believe the z3 is priced below $200 in India. Which brings it inline with the range that they talk about in the article. But if the people of India are supporting micromax cause of national pride(ie want to support local business) or even lower prices then blackberry might have some trouble. What do you guys think?mornhavon likes this.08-13-14 11:34 AMLike 1
- Z3 isn't doing well anywhere. Its overpriced for the market and availability is poor. In India for example its Rs. 15,990 at Flipkart (India's Amazon) which is $261 at current exchange rates.
Ya thats not good. I thought it was priced lower than that. I guess that was only for the launch where people got deals for it. z3 should be $200 max if they even want to try to succeed in india. I thought it was doing ok in indonesia?08-13-14 11:53 AMLike 0 - Indonesia is doing okay but it was suppose to be the country where Z3 would explode given its one of if not the strongest market for BB. Being out of stock for weeks after the initial launch batch didn't help things.08-13-14 11:57 AMLike 0
- Apple doesn't play the market share game. It has huge market share "just because..." If Apple really wanted market share, it would launch a legitimate low or mid end device at the 200 USD price point.
As it is, Apple knows that it will lose market share as the "next billion smartphone users" buy smartphones and choose ultra low end Androids; but, none of this matters to Apple because the profit margin is in high end devices and Apple has played this market extremely well. Refer to how outlandishly priced Macs are vs. PCs. No other OEM even comes close anymore but Apple won't budge on its archaic price structure.08-13-14 11:58 AMLike 0 - Apple will be fine. In those emerging markets they are selling Iphone 4/4s as entry aspirational devices and of course they'll take the largest chunk of the premium market, in a couple years Iphone will be like Macs 10-20% of the market but huge profits. Samsungs best days are behind it, the top end Android device market is about tapped out and anything below they have huge competition from nimble OEMs willing take a smaller slice.
Posted via CB1008-13-14 02:04 PMLike 0 - Sure you can buy better spec devices for the price but Iphones have cache. Until that no longer is the case Apple can and does sell more and more Iphones in emerging markets. In India they doubled the sales from last year.08-13-14 03:20 PMLike 0
- That is simply not true. While Apple's growth has slowed down a bit in most of Asia, they are still leading and growing in Japan and China. Their last conference call confirmed that most of the last quarter revenue growth were coming from China market. They are still unquestionably the most sought after status symbol phone in China's growing middle class market. Admittedly Xiaomi has been doing very well and is started to catch up with Apple's total shipment in the China market, but Samsung is the company that feels most of the heat. A friend of mine who works as a software architect in Samsung mobile China recently told me that the Koreans is finally serious about the China market and started to give them full control on the software/hardware design for high end phones facing China market. Apple while competing in the same mobile phone market enjoys a higher social status symbol treatment than other competing handsets maker. In short, Apple is far from done in Asia and its shipment and revenue are growing faster in Asia than in America.08-13-14 03:24 PMLike 0
- Market share will not be an issue when Apple releases the iPhone 6. They will sell tens of millions of them to their loyal user base and as a consumer products manufacture, that's the payoff for great marketing and brand loyalty.
I remember back in the early days when Blackberry used to be in the same position, then came competition, lack of vision and poor management and here we are today.
Sent using the CB forums app.08-13-14 03:56 PMLike 0 - That is simply not true. While Apple's growth has slowed down a bit in most of Asia, they are still leading and growing in Japan and China. Their last conference call confirmed that most of the last quarter revenue growth were coming from China market. They are still unquestionably the most sought after status symbol phone in China's growing middle class market. Admittedly Xiaomi has been doing very well and is started to catch up with Apple's total shipment in the China market, but Samsung is the company that feels most of the heat. A friend of mine who works as a software architect in Samsung mobile China recently told me that the Koreans is finally serious about the China market and started to give them full control on the software/hardware design for high end phones facing China market. Apple while competing in the same mobile phone market enjoys a higher social status symbol treatment than other competing handsets maker. In short, Apple is far from done in Asia and its shipment and revenue are growing faster in Asia than in America.08-13-14 05:21 PMLike 0
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