[tchocky77]

Apple will not be nearly as successful in the future as they are now. That's simply not sustainable. However, tet'd have to lose something close to 90% of their value, by share price, like RIM has, to be "the next RIM." That won't happen either.

[BlackStormRising]

Agreed. A tech darling losing 90% of it's share value is pretty much unheard of. I can't think of any examples off the top of my head (googling...)

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[omniusovermind]

Agreed. A tech darling losing 90% of it's share value is pretty much unheard of. I can't think of any examples off the top of my head (googling...)

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sarcasm noted. I lol'd

[Chinookman]

The too big to fail mentality of today will impact all business models. AS the article mentioned all were at one time big dogs and now AAPL fanz will be buying on the slippery slope down. I really don't care. But think about my logic for a moment. This is just a consumer product. A toy for the largest percentage of the buyers. (Yes, really it's a toy admit it first then lets proceed)

Today we have a changing landscape. More smartphones and less dumb-phones stress out the infrastructure. No carrier can overcome government barriers fast enough to maintain the pace. So now we have carriers forcing the consumer to change the grandfathered unlimited plan.

What this means is that AAPL will falter as they all do for many reasons out of APPL's hands. Plus they will contribute to their own demise much the same way RIMM contributed to their own demise. Before you spout off, look at the 91% stock valuation loss in 4 short years and their inability to recover. Hard facts not emotional RIMM bashing.

Humans being what we are in corporate cultures, do not change over night but incrementally. SO this is not wishing failure on any business but just understanding that yes, AAPPL may hold on to its zenith but w/o SJ at the helm it will be more difficult for them not to repeat history of other former great companies.

Plus our economy has to improve marginally better then 2.2% GDP for all the kiddies and parent(s) to be able to afford those 150-200 dollar a month charges for the average household. Especially as the Unlimited plans go by the way of the Commodore 64......

[Chinookman]

Agreed. A tech darling losing 90% of it's share value is pretty much unheard of. I can't think of any examples off the top of my head (googling...)

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Here I'll help yah out and save you the time:

RIMM Technical Analysis | Research In Motion Limited Stock - Yahoo! Finance

Just take a low "high" point to be conservative. Let's take $120 in 2008 and today's $11 to be generous.

(120-11)/120 = .91 x 100 = 91% loss yep there yah have it......

So, has any company ever recovered from a 91% loss?...

[morlock_man]

Here I'll help yah out and save you the time:

RIMM Technical Analysis | Research In Motion Limited Stock - Yahoo! Finance

Just take a low "high" point to be conservative. Let's take $120 in 2008 and today's $11 to be generous.

(120-11)/120 = .91 x 100 = 91% loss yep there yah have it......

So, has any company ever recovered from a 91% loss?...

There's a first for everything.

The tech field isn't like selling breakfast cereals, it changes pretty quickly.

And the bubbles that result from new developments can be pretty disruptive and hard to predict.

[grahamf]

Here I'll help yah out and save you the time:

RIMM Technical Analysis | Research In Motion Limited Stock - Yahoo! Finance

Just take a low "high" point to be conservative. Let's take $120 in 2008 and today's $11 to be generous.

(120-11)/120 = .91 x 100 = 91% loss yep there yah have it......

So, has any company ever recovered from a 91% loss?...

Apple:

Mar 1, 2000 close: $138.81
Dec 1, 2000 close: $14.88

Loss: 89%

I'm sure if I could tweak the exact start and end dates I could bring it to 91%

[tchocky77]

Can you reference those numbers? I know the stock lost at least HALF it's value in 2000, but you have to keep in mind, that was the year the "dotcom" bubble burst. All the companies that survived took a serious beating.

[southlander]

Apple fall?



LOL...c'mon. You don't think Apple won't buy whatever is upcoming and cool?

Possibly. If they can always side step the "not invented here" mentality which always seems to dog large tech companies to varying degrees.


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[BoldPreza]

I doubt it. Do I see a big fall? Yep. It happens with every company in every industry. Eventually what goes up must come down.

[TheScionicMan]

No, RIM is the next Apple. Just when everyone counted them out, they'll come back stronger than ever...

[BerryBin]

Ofcuse, revolution takes place. things never stop changing, that's the rule

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[mphillips828]

Is Apple the next RIM? or is RIM the next Apple?

Apple was already to the point on bankruptcy not to long ago 10 years or so...and came back and has flourished...RIM is not even close to as bankrupt as Apple was and has a great OS on the way...maybe RIM is the next Apple and will take the industry by storm with BB10!

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[grahamf]

Can you reference those numbers? I know the stock lost at least HALF it's value in 2000, but you have to keep in mind, that was the year the "dotcom" bubble burst. All the companies that survived took a serious beating.

Here you go.

That being said, I highly doubt the dotcom bust was the only thing hurting Apple at the time.

A quick check indicates that 2000 was the year that Apple released the beta of Mac OS X 10.0, which was built from the ground up to replace their badly aging OS 9 Classic (not unlike RIM's current transition to BB10 from BB7)

This thread goes into detail the new Hardware and OS that Apple came out with in 2000, which helped Apple recover from their drop.

We never really covered it on Low End Mac. The best review of the Public Beta came from John Siracusa at Ars Technica, who warned, "for $29.95 you get an unfinished, buggy version of Apple's next generation operating system." It was definitely rough around the edges, and Apple paid attention to many user suggestions in creating the first commercial release of OS X in 2001.

Sounds like PlayBook OS 1.

[brucep1]

maybe RIM is the next Apple and will take the industry by storm with BB10!

Very poor choice of words...

[mphillips828]

Very poor choice of words...

Why?

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[Tre Lawrence]

Why?

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*sigh* you missed the storm joke...

[tchocky77]

Here you go.

That being said, I highly doubt the dotcom bust was the only thing hurting Apple at the time.

A quick check indicates that 2000 was the year that Apple released the beta of Mac OS X 10.0, which was built from the ground up to replace their badly aging OS 9 Classic (not unlike RIM's current transition to BB10 from BB7)

This thread goes into detail the new Hardware and OS that Apple came out with in 2000, which helped Apple recover from their drop.



Sounds like PlayBook OS 1.

Thanks for your reply. I think the notable difference between the Apple of then and the Rim of now is that in 2000, everyone was seriously hurting as a result of the economic downturn. Later this year,...RIM will release BB10 amidst Apple's iPhone 5 and Google's first vanilla moto phones. Neither Apple or Google are in anything like the financial shape that RIM finds itself in.

It's going to be entertaining to watch, for sure.

[_StephenBB81]

Thanks for your reply. I think the notable difference between the Apple of then and the Rim of now is that in 2000, everyone was seriously hurting as a result of the economic downturn. Later this year,...RIM will release BB10 amidst Apple's iPhone 5 and Google's first vanilla moto phones. Neither Apple or Google are in anything like the financial shape that RIM finds itself in.

It's going to be entertaining to watch, for sure.

Are we not in a result of the biggest economic downturn since the depression in North America?

RIM is not nearly as down and out as Apple was at the time, and Apples competitors were equally as positioned in the marketplace as RIM's competitors now, in fact, Arguably Microsoft's PC OS market share dwarfed that of Google or Apples Mobile market share.

thinks wont be peachy keen for RIM, but they are in a much better position than any of the "failed" players they are often compared to, and they simply need a similar show of faith that Microsoft gave Apple to turn their fortunes. be it a big name Enterprise committing to BB10 Roll outs, and announcing it, or someone like Microsoft releasing Office for BB10 before they release Office for iOS/Android.

[tchocky77]

Are we not in a result of the biggest economic downturn since the depression in North America?

RIM is not nearly as down and out as Apple was at the time, and Apples competitors were equally as positioned in the marketplace as RIM's competitors now, in fact, Arguably Microsoft's PC OS market share dwarfed that of Google or Apples Mobile market share.

thinks wont be peachy keen for RIM, but they are in a much better position than any of the "failed" players they are often compared to, and they simply need a similar show of faith that Microsoft gave Apple to turn their fortunes. be it a big name Enterprise committing to BB10 Roll outs, and announcing it, or someone like Microsoft releasing Office for BB10 before they release Office for iOS/Android.

We are certainly in a broader downturn now than we were in 2000, but RIM's direct competition are unique in that they are currently some of the strongest performers in the market.

It's interesting you specifically mention Office on BlackBerry as this.....
Microsoft Office for iOS and Android May Arrive This Fall | PCWorld Business Center .....is all over the news this morning.

[_StephenBB81]

We are certainly in a broader downturn now than we were in 2000, but RIM's direct competition are unique in that they are currently some of the strongest performers in the market.

It's interesting you specifically mention Office on BlackBerry as this.....
Microsoft Office for iOS and Android May Arrive This Fall | PCWorld Business Center .....is all over the news this morning.

I noticed that the other day, the speculations have been going about that for the last 5 months.

IF it happens I will be dumping any share in Microsoft I have, and changing any funds that Microsoft is inside of, because Microsoft Launching iOS/Android Office when they are trying to get Windows 8 off the ground is like tying their sprinters shoe laces together before the race!

Office would be a KEY element to Windows 8 tablets in Enterprise, and help Windows 8 adoption, give Office to the current incumbents, and their Biggest competitors on ALL fronts, not just mobile would be a bad move.
But heck it makes for a great rumor.

[randall2580]

IMHO where Apple succeeded was that they were the first ones to understand the great unwashed masses wanted their phone, their tablet, their computers to work like their toaster does. Minimal updates that occur mostly in the background or better yet when you upgrade. No crashes. Just pick up the iPhone, the iPad and do what you want to do. Closing the system not only was a good idea for Apple revenue wise, but it allowed them to control what made it onto your phone, your tablet and to a lesser extent your computer keeping conflicts to a minimum. Got a problem - talk to a Genius. You can go to the store and learn everything you ever wanted to know about your new iThingy, just make an appointment or take a class. Enthusiasts don't like this as they don't get to make their systems their own but Jobs understood that the masses are not enthusiasts in the true sense of the word - they just want their technology to work. Its why they continue to sell huge numbers of everything they do, even though there are technically some better competing devices out there. Yes the Samsung GSIII sold 9 million copies to date, do you think that is going to dent IP5's sales in the summer - lets wait and see.

BTW Samsung washers already "speak" to the phone and the tablet and more of that's coming, Samsung gets that too - QNX already has competition there. My 2010 Chevy sends me emails when it's time for an oil change, though my emails back for better performance have been unanswered by the vehicle so far. On Star already has great IP, Android and YES NOW BB apps for their new cars that do all of the things mentioned in this post. These things are already with us.

[Mr.Willie]

I noticed that the other day, the speculations have been going about that for the last 5 months.

IF it happens I will be dumping any share in Microsoft I have, and changing any funds that Microsoft is inside of, because Microsoft Launching iOS/Android Office when they are trying to get Windows 8 off the ground is like tying their sprinters shoe laces together before the race!

Office would be a KEY element to Windows 8 tablets in Enterprise, and help Windows 8 adoption, give Office to the current incumbents, and their Biggest competitors on ALL fronts, not just mobile would be a bad move.
But heck it makes for a great rumor.

But I would pay $100 for real "Big Boy" office for iPad. But it must be the real deal, not the dumbed down mobile garbage. Even if only 10 percent of iPad users buy it, 10% of a lot, is a lot.

[_StephenBB81]

But I would pay $100 for real "Big Boy" office for iPad. But it must be the real deal, not the dumbed down mobile garbage. Even if only 10 percent of iPad users buy it, 10% of a lot, is a lot.

I too would pay for a mobile version of office for my BlackBerry, or my PlayBook, I'd gladly pay a subscription model even.

I was very very close to buying an Acer Iconia W500 tablet just to have office mobile, and I have been prepared to buy a Windows 8 tablet for Office,
I know a few SMB's who are holding out on tablets waiting for Office being readily available for tablets, they've been thinking Office365 but would like off line office on tablets, and Windows 8 tablets are very much on their radar, IF Office came out for Android or iOS they wouldn't bother with Windows 8 AT ALL, Windows 8 is enough of a change that they would give Mac a try and if they can get Office on iPads, Microsoft is giving a HUGE leg up to the adoption of Mac/iOS in the SMB market if they sell Office for iPad/Android before they secure Windows 8 adoption and tablet distribution.

The timing is just soooo bad, it just stinks of an Office executive feuding with a Windows executive and wanting to steal the spot light of the Windows 8 Launch,

but no one sees the risk it holds for the loss of SMB customers who already look to Google apps instead of Office365, who look to Non Microsoft Technologies, Microsoft needs to get these guys back into Microsoft technologies, not make the other ecosystems even more attractive when they are in a transition mode.

that said I'm all for them putting office on other platforms, BUT they need to give Windows 8 a chance for adoption, they clearly don't have a huge Metro UI adoption in the market place to make Windows 8 an easy sell.