1. W Hoa's Avatar
    Hudson Square analysts are taking a flyer on the BlackBerry maker, giving it a buy rating....

    To back themselves up, Hudson Square lists several positives for RIM:

    1) The essential role of mobile in the future of computing,

    2) The increasing need for communications security

    3) The existence of RIMs global, highly-secure mobile messaging network

    4) RIMs extensive carrier relationships that extend to the billing level,

    5) RIMs 78 [million] high-margin paying subscriber base, and

    6) A very digestible $1.6B enterprise value equating to roughly 2x EBITDA, [that] we believe [creates] a compelling case for a strategic sale of the company

    Research In Motion Finds a Buyer In an Analyst - Deal Journal - WSJ
    07-02-12 12:34 PM
  2. W Hoa's Avatar
    There's more:

    As Ernst sees it, RIMs enterprise value of $1.6 billion makes that network very cheap for all it affords. It would take at least $2 billion to build such a network from scratch, he contends. That network has very high profit margins, too, he hypothesizes...


    Citibank has been hacked, everyones been hacked, Ernst points out. RIMs security is so good that foreign governments are begging RIM for the code.

    Every person who buys a BlackBerry, including consumers, are on RIMs network, something no other wireless device maker has, he observes. The operators are sales reps for RIMs service. Thats something even Apple (AAPL) doesnt have.

    RIM Rises: Take-Out Candidate? Salvage Value? - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com
    07-02-12 02:23 PM
  3. njblackberry's Avatar
    The rest of the story...

    "We're not doing this because we're waiting for Blackberry 10 to turn the business around," says Daniel Ernst, tech analyst for Hudson Square Research.

    Instead, Ernst is betting the embattled company will sell some of its business divisions, even if it holds onto its smartphones.

    "At a $1.6 billion enterprise value, there's just too much potential opportunity to unlock there," Ernst told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street."

    That's not optimism. It's a breakup play.
    Shlooky, JeepBB and Rooster99 like this.
    07-02-12 02:39 PM
  4. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    There's a point to all of this, and it suggests something of RIM's unique nature.

    RIM doesn't just make handsets, it operates infrastructure. Aside from last fall's extended outage, that network has had a great reputation.
    07-02-12 02:43 PM
  5. moretreelessbush's Avatar
    Yeap, and here is a link to the CNBC article quoted in the post from njblackberry

    Analyst to RIM: Time to Sell, It's 'Now or Never'
    07-02-12 02:47 PM
  6. moretreelessbush's Avatar
    In that same Barron's article, the same Hudson analyst said

    "Daniel Ernst of boutique firm Hudson Square Research makes the case today that RIM cannot exist as a standalone entity and should basically drop its plans for the company’s forthcoming “BB10” software platform, which has been delayed till the first quarter of 2013.

    “It’s inconceivable that you could look around the landscape [of mobile devices] and argue that anyone’s interested in another platform, that developers and carriers would want to invest in that,” contends Ernst in a conversation by phone this afternoon.

    He thinks BB10 should just be shut down.

    “[Apple's] iOS is too far ahead, Android, Windows Phone are too far ahead” for RIM to catch up at this point, he believes."
    Last edited by moretreelessbush; 07-02-12 at 03:07 PM.
    07-02-12 03:03 PM
  7. kill_9's Avatar
    My response to each point is highlighted in italic typeface.


    Hudson Square analysts are taking a flyer on the BlackBerry maker, giving it a buy rating....

    To back themselves up, Hudson Square lists several positives for RIM:

    1) The essential role of mobile in the future of computing,

    Agreed.

    2) The increasing need for communications security

    Agreed.

    3) The existence of RIMs global, highly-secure mobile messaging network

    Agreed. However, in light of Research In Motion capitulating to various governments, particularly in despotic nations, and allowing interception of BlackBerry Internet Service traffic which has yet to be proven not to affect BlackBerry Enterprise Server traffic (BlackBerry Messenger, for example), the highly-secure mobile messaging network might be a misnomer at this time.

    4) RIMs extensive carrier relationships that extend to the billing level,

    Wireless Carrier relationships seem to be waning though the statement is essentially true.

    5) RIMs 78 [million] high-margin paying subscriber base, and

    Not every subscriber is a high-margin subscriber. Growing the subscriber base is important but most of the new subscribers over the last three years have been in low-income countries or among low-wage earners buying low-end smartphones.

    6) A very digestible $1.6B enterprise value equating to roughly 2x EBITDA, [that] we believe [creates] a compelling case for a strategic sale of the company

    Ah, yes. The vulture reveals his true motivations and desires for Research In Motion.

    Research In Motion Finds a Buyer In an Analyst - Deal Journal - WSJ
    07-02-12 03:21 PM
  8. kill_9's Avatar
    My response to each point is highlighted in bold italic typeface.


    Hudson Square analysts are taking a flyer on the BlackBerry maker, giving it a buy rating....

    To back themselves up, Hudson Square lists several positives for RIM:

    1) The essential role of mobile in the future of computing,

    Agreed.

    2) The increasing need for communications security

    Agreed.

    3) The existence of RIMs global, highly-secure mobile messaging network

    Agreed. However, in light of Research In Motion capitulating to various governments, particularly in despotic nations, and allowing interception of BlackBerry Internet Service traffic which has yet to be proven not to affect BlackBerry Enterprise Server traffic (BlackBerry Messenger, for example), the highly-secure mobile messaging network might be a misnomer at this time.

    4) RIMs extensive carrier relationships that extend to the billing level,

    Wireless Carrier relationships seem to be waning though the statement is essentially true.

    5) RIMs 78 [million] high-margin paying subscriber base, and

    Not every subscriber is a high-margin subscriber. Growing the subscriber base is important but most of the new subscribers over the last three years have been in low-income countries or among low-wage earners buying low-end smartphones.

    6) A very digestible $1.6B enterprise value equating to roughly 2x EBITDA, [that] we believe [creates] a compelling case for a strategic sale of the company

    Ah, yes. The vulture reveals his true motivations and desires for Research In Motion.

    Research In Motion Finds a Buyer In an Analyst - Deal Journal - WSJ
    07-02-12 03:23 PM
  9. aniym's Avatar
    Why is he a 'vulture'? His job role is to identify opportunities for capital gains of stocks. Not saying that his analysis is right or wrong, but every analyst out there is saying that RIM stock is only going to go back up if a sale happens. BB10 was always going to be a hail Mary play because of how late RIM realized what the scope of the problems were.

    If you worked in a robotics lab, would you consider yourself anti-labor because your research might contribute to people losing assembly-line manufacturing jobs?
    07-02-12 03:37 PM
  10. GTiLeo's Avatar
    i was going to buy myself 1000 shares in RIM when the price was at $12 a share, i held of thinking to myself with the release of BB10 so far away sales will end up going down a bit and the price of their stock will drop before it goes up. i didn't think it would drop as much as it has but soon enough their stck will be at its low and won't be goign any lower, its either RIM will seel and their stock will be worth more or their sales like we all think will fly and the stock will rocket up making all investors pretty rich
    07-02-12 03:44 PM
  11. Fuzzballz's Avatar
    Let him put his money in then. A year or two from now we can all look back and see if he was right.
    07-02-12 04:51 PM
  12. kdna's Avatar
    RIM is not being sold. RIM is becoming lean and will be putting out the first true super phone called BlackBerry 10. BlackBerry 10 will bring about the promise of mobile computing for the next decade.

    Traders are just that: traders!
    07-03-12 12:32 PM
  13. Fuzzballz's Avatar
    yeah! Sources tell me that BB10 actually cures cancer too. It'll be wonderful.
    07-03-12 01:42 PM
  14. Pete6's Avatar
    I want one of these



    It's a bit old now but, wtf.
    07-03-12 01:53 PM
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