02-16-13 02:26 PM
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  1. Dapper37's Avatar
    If BlackBerry was to release sales # from UK and Canada these same Analyst and Bloggers would be up to their old Tricks saying how unimpressed they were compared to ip5 sales in the US. I don't blame BB for not releasing them yet.
    Last edited by Dapper37; 02-15-13 at 09:24 PM.
    02-15-13 08:58 PM
  2. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    MY only metric would be: IS this good enough to turn the company around, and keep them alive in the long term. The fact is...the numbers have to be pretty good to do that....
    By what standard? Remember - this is a company that was ON TOP OF THE WORLD when the iPhone came out. And yet they only had 10.5 million customers at the time! A tiny fraction of what they have now ... when a lot of the world is writing them off as dead. there are a lot of cards they can still play.

    I honestly thought we'd be seeing a lot more buzz
    Your experience must be different than mine. Every time I go into a store, I see people looking at them, talking about them and asking questions. I turn on the tv, I see it being talked about. Tonight at the gym, a guy had a white one. Someone asked him if it was a Z10, then a bunch of people came over and started asking questions.

    and higher sales than I think we are getting from the faithful....
    You know, I get the optimist, pessimist view, but it's still the same fundamental problem. Optimists are claiming "sales are great" without hard data. And your claiming "modest/bad" sales, without hard data.

    How about we all just wait for 'data'? Period!

    but they surely need a huge turnaround....and a complete change in attitude towards them.
    They were almost 'break even' last quarter. Not sure it's as 'huge' as you think.

    I don't think you are correct that they will not be interpreted correctly. They may or may not, but I think most people will do their best to.
    Sorry dude - we don't see eye to eye on this in the slightest. Like I cannot be further in disagreement with you on it. For the amount of utter incorrect crap I've seen in the media, the amount of spin, half-missing data, made up garbage I've read, I actually think it would go the complete opposite direction. A few people would write a balanced, both sides story. Most would spin it negatively and forget key details. Look at the New York Times "Canadian sales off to a lackluster start". And as proof? The guy walked around a single mall, in a single city, in the dead of winter, in the downtown government core ... and then assumed it was like that across the country.
    Dapper37 and Prince_Poppycock like this.
    02-15-13 09:05 PM
  3. kelexiong's Avatar
    ok after some digging i found that they sold about 150k 9800s the first weekend that might be the number they are going off of and that sounds resonable (225k z10s) for now.
    Can you share with us how you found that number? I think 225,000 sales is a pretty strong number.
    02-15-13 09:09 PM
  4. howarmat's Avatar
    From a CrackBerry blog post
    02-15-13 09:14 PM
  5. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    BlackBerry: The Next 10 Things That Will Happen | Lifehacker Australia

    On the release of hardcore numbers, here's something that I just read in another post and it makes sense.
    "1. Good initial sales figures. So far, BB10 devices have gone on sale in the UK, Canada, South Africa and parts of the Middle East. CEO Thorsten Heins wouldn’t reveal specific sales numbers, citing the quiet period before formal announcement of company results at the end of the month, but suggested they were strong despite the twin competitive towers of Android and iOS looming over the mobile marketplace.

    “What we see from sales in the UK and Canada and Middle East is pretty encouraging,” he said. “The UK launch for us was the best launch ever for a BlackBerry product, by far the best launch ever. Canada was just pure rock and roll. We expected it to be good, but it was beyond expectation. That’s fair to say without giving away any secrets.”
    BlackBerry's year end is in less than two weeks ...
    Bbnivende likes this.
    02-15-13 09:19 PM
  6. dbmalloy's Avatar
    All this is a matter of scale... to bring Apple into the launced into it is just plain silly..... with their marketing machine they can build the hype and sell millions in a weekend.... they actually need to.. to keep investors happy.... BB does not... they are not under the same preasure that Apple is as far as sales go.... what may to many look like a so so launch to some may be right in line or better for BB internal sales projections.... after all only they know what is succesful ifor them..... the next qiarter report will settle that issue... What I find interesting is how this constant stream of negativity has hit BB ( for whatever reason ) and the stock is actually holding its own..... It is starting to seem like the old adage "any PR is good PR" may actually working in BB favour despite all the current negative press....
    02-15-13 09:31 PM
  7. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    I think this was a good launch. I think it was significantly better than the N920 launch last fall.

    BlackBerry can only fudge the numbers so far before it becomes obvious, and when retailers are providing corroboration I think that says something.

    Posted using CrackBerry App on BB10
    02-15-13 09:55 PM
  8. Zarpan's Avatar
    ok after some digging i found that they sold about 150k 9800s the first weekend that might be the number they are going off of and that sounds resonable (225k z10s) for now.
    I believe that number was for a US-only launch with one carrier (AT&T) though. 225k sounds pretty high for a Canadian launch, even with multiple carriers.
    02-15-13 11:18 PM
  9. howarmat's Avatar
    I believe that number was for a US-only launch with one carrier (AT&T) though. 225k sounds pretty high for a Canadian launch, even with multiple carriers.
    im thinking globally it was 225k, not just canada. Again we are throwing out numbers with no actually knowledge though.
    02-15-13 11:31 PM
  10. aniym's Avatar
    The demand for a Z10 is so good that people over the UK are buying unlocked phones and making profit with internet sales. I know because I just got a very good friend of mine to send me one and she heard it from directly from the store manager.

    So yeah. In your face AThingsD, and BGR, and all others...
    Yes, you certainly showed Allthingsd with your anecdotal evidence vs. the analysts 60 store survey.

    Sent from my IdeaTabA2109A using Tapatalk HD
    02-15-13 11:38 PM
  11. Zarpan's Avatar
    Hi, Zarpan. No, I wasn't comparing to Apple AT ALL. I wouldn't ever expect them to match Apple's launches, and of COURSE they were in limited release. I picked 5mil. out of a hat, to serve as an example. MY only metric would be: IS this good enough to turn the company around, and keep them alive in the long term. The fact is...the numbers have to be pretty good to do that....I honestly thought we'd be seeing a lot more buzz, and higher sales than I think we are getting from the faithful....and I thought it wouldn't be until the initial rush was over that we could judge if the long term sales were going to be enough, with enough converts. As it is....it looks bad to me from the start....again...they don't need anywhere near apple numbers, but they surely need a huge turnaround....and a complete change in attitude towards them.
    For BlackBerry to break even, I believe (from my calcs) they need to sell around 1 million BB10 devices per month. 1.5 million BB10 devices per month would put them at over $1 eps. Do you think their long-term numbers are going to fall far short of that? Their numbers don't need to be *that* good to reach 1 million BB10 sales per month.

    I don't think you are correct that they will not be interpreted correctly. They may or may not, but I think most people will do their best to. We all understand what countries we are talking about. If you think they are better off with the code of silence...well so be it. I certainly do not IF the numbers are truly great.
    Given the number of stories about BlackBerry that compare them to Apple in some way or another, I'm not very confident that the media would put the numbers in a context that doesn't involve Apple sales figures.
    kelexiong likes this.
    02-15-13 11:43 PM
  12. Zarpan's Avatar
    im thinking globally it was 225k, not just canada. Again we are throwing out numbers with no actually knowledge though.
    True... The only wholly confirmed number I've seen is that Axiom Wireless (which I think has a majority market share in the UAE and probably lesser shares in some other Gulf States) had 4250 prebookings over the first 48 hours after prebookings started. The article was about availability of the Z10 in Saudi Arabia, so it is a bit unclear about whether that number was across the whole company or just for Saudi Arabia. In any case, they did say it was one of their strongest pre-booking campaigns ever. Unfortunately, that doesn't really help much in terms of figuring out UK or Canadian sales.
    02-15-13 11:58 PM
  13. richardat's Avatar
    Oh come on Richard - you're much smarter, and more data oriented than that!

    You know full well that if Blackberry sold 500,000 BlackBerry 10 devices in the first week in Canada and the UK combined and that number was twice the previous record, the New York Times wouldn't run a story that says, "BlackBerry doubles previous sales with strong BlackBerry 10 launch!"

    They'd run a big headline that says, "BlackBerry 10 bombing - one 1/10th a many sold as iPhone 5s in first week" and forget to mention the increase over previous sales. Same with Eric Savitz and many of the other 'let's trash BlackBerry at every opportunity" reporters.
    Sorry. I don't think that's true at all. I know that is the running theme around here, and of course, I expect enthusiasts bias to color their interpretations (hey, often there are people railing against some horribly hateful article...and when I read it....it's actually quite fair in MY opinion....), but even HERE....people were just recently talking about all the positive press. Threads about all the positive press, threads about "haters" writing "positive" articles...even...gasp...BGR....

    Overall, I'd say the press has been more than fair towards BB. I see a FEW extreme articles....usually a blog of some kind...where BB is mocked.,,,I've also seen many articles try to gloss over the problems (often some of our Canadian press seems to do this)....but overall, I'd say they are pretty reasonable. Frankly, a lot of the recent bad press was deserved, bc RIM has simply screwed up a lot in the last few years. Oddly enough...and in the past few months I've pointed this out a few times...and it seems to quell things a bit....some people here will RAIL against a "hater"....and I"ll point out...you know a lot of long-term, serious CB'ers...have been saying the exact same criticism - and they're definitively not haters!

    In any case, there will be some people writing with a biased agenda....both ways....but I think people would be pretty fair in assessing the situation. What they might say though, that nobody here will want to here, is that: it's not enough.. I of course, might think them correct, since my feeling it is, it is unlikely to be. That's not really a criticism of BB though - except that they let it get to this point - the fact is, they are in a very tough position....I feel they really did need a complete game-changer to get out of this mess.
    02-16-13 12:02 AM
  14. richardat's Avatar
    ok after some digging i found that they sold about 150k 9800s the first weekend that might be the number they are going off of and that sounds resonable (225k z10s) for now.
    That would be a very plausible number I think....and this illustrates part of the problem for me. Let's even say they have sold 400,000.....see.....I'm tempted to say -even of 250,00 - that's pretty good! I'd say, that's a good start, and if they can keep it up.....

    ...but then I think...OK....and that's in the rush after diehard fans, who are intensely loyal, have been waiting years for this. Must assume it will drop off. Then you have the US.....much bigger market...but much less enthusiasm and marketshare.....can't expect them to deliver an equivalent amount (in percentage).....developing nations....well they have smaller markets for a phone this premium, and some won't even have access to this....STILL....if they got something close to equivalent, it'd be great right??

    Well......kinda....except that, from a developers perspective....one can look at the Android/ios installed user base, and compare it to the Z10 sales....well you can see the problem. I don't expect them to get iphone/android numbers, but in a very real sense, they ARE directly up against not only android/ios marketshare....but their installed bases as well. Should I make an app that can be used on the iphone 4, 4s, and 5...and in some cases the 3gs as well.....or should I make on for 1 million BB10 users......

    I said well before the launch, if you're going to go in against mature, dominant, huge competitors like Samsung/Apple....well you better go big.....all in.....because every single day you don't have their kind of numbers, you are actually falling a little back further in the race....and each day your phone is out there, it is a day further along the road to obsolescence. and a day closer to the next wave of releases.
    02-16-13 12:19 AM
  15. kelexiong's Avatar
    For BlackBerry to break even, I believe (from my calcs) they need to sell around 1 million BB10 devices per month. 1.5 million BB10 devices per month would put them at over $1 eps. Do you think their long-term numbers are going to fall far short of that? Their numbers don't need to be *that* good to reach 1 million BB10 sales per month.
    Let me see if I can back out your numbers.

    HARDWARE
    3 million BB10 devices per quarter * $600 ASP = $1,800 million in BB10 hardware revenue. Assume 30% gross margin. $540 million in BB10 hardware operating margin.

    SERVICE
    Assume 900 million per quarter (approximately 10 percent quarter over quarter decline). Assume 80% gross margin. $720 in service operating margin.

    OPERATING COSTS
    Assume $1,200 million in operating costs. This is about 15% higher than last quarter to reflect increased marketing and promotional spending.

    EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST AND TAXES
    $540 + $720 - $1200 = $60

    I have deliberately left out BlackBerry OS 7 devices since it's tough to model. They are currently selling for negative gross margin, so it is likely that the sales of OS 7 devices will cause net income to be close to zero. I like your calculations and agree that 1 million BB10 devices per month is easily achievable. Back in 2011, when BlackBerry had a fresh portfolio of products, they were selling about 5 million devices per month.

    I'm using some pretty conservative assumptions. I would argue that 1 million BB10 devices per month could lead to a slight profit. It all depends on how fast services revenue declines.
    Last edited by kelexiong; 02-16-13 at 01:47 AM.
    02-16-13 01:33 AM
  16. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Let me see if I can back out your numbers.

    HARDWARE
    3 million BB10 devices per quarter * $600 ASP = $1,800 million in BB10 hardware revenue. Assume 30% gross margin. $540 million in BB10 hardware operating margin.
    My guess is that ASP ~ $500 (as some retailers like Koodo are selling it for $549 no contract)

    SERVICE
    Assume 900 million per quarter (approximately 10 percent quarter over quarter decline). Assume 80% gross margin. $720 in service operating margin.
    Right. But I think this 10 percent decline will be offset by sale of content, apps and revenue from new BlackBerry WorkSpace app's licenses. So, service revenue should be higher than what you are predicting.

    OPERATING COSTS
    Assume $1,000 million in operating costs. This is relatively constant from last quarter.
    Should add some significant marketing cost for first few quarters of this year.

    EARNINGS BEFORE INTEREST AND TAXES
    $540 + $720 - $1000 = $260
    So, this will change a bit slightly (based on what I've pointed out above).

    Back in 2011, when BlackBerry had a fresh portfolio of products, they were selling about 5 million devices per month.
    had no idea they were selling 5M per quarter in 2011. Good to know.
    kelexiong likes this.
    02-16-13 01:50 AM
  17. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    Yes, you certainly showed Allthingsd with your anecdotal evidence vs. the analysts 60 store survey.

    Sent from my IdeaTabA2109A using Tapatalk HD
    I wouldn't call AllThings D's survey particularly great either. There are other analysts that have done checks which conflict. In addition, th variables aren't defined. What's a sell-out? Is it sold out if the first batch sells out, they get more in, then the second doesn't? Or does it need to sell out once to qualify. I know it sounds anal rententive, but it hit home to me when I saw my first one in the local BEST BUY.

    The at the store said that they got a bunch in the first day (30 I think he said) and they moved through them consistently. They also got more inventory in the next day ... in the morning ... again in the early afternoon .... and again in the late afternoon. Inventory continued to turn briskly.

    There weren't lineups like Apple, but it was definitely a brisk seller for him. Several people kept coming over and asking while I was there for 10 minutes and two sold.

    So is it a sellout if you 'get more in' after the initial batch is sold? :-) Is it a failure if it moves well relative to your expectations?
    02-16-13 07:53 AM
  18. RubberChicken76's Avatar
    RichardDAT: We'll have to agree to disagree then ... somewhat.

    I agree that there BlackBerry does deserve a lot of the criticism. And I agree that many posters leap on fair reviews.

    But I don't agree that the press is 'by and large' fair. The press, IMO, by and large, puts a spin on things to get an angle. Fair would imply all facts - negative and positive. I see plenty of articles that are entirely negative focused that forget salient positive points as well.

    And there absolutely are extremely negative posts.

    This tech crunch one (see 40:00) left me surprised the guy from RIM didn't haul off and beat the crap out of the reporter.

    http://www.blackberrycool.com/2012/0...im-at-ces2012/
    richardat likes this.
    02-16-13 08:03 AM
  19. joe.miller's Avatar
    As a single data point, I was at the Costco in Etobicoke today. The rep there told me they were sold out of Rogers Z10s, but as I was talking to him, they received a delivery that appeared to be a box of about 6-8 new ones.

    So in the few minutes that I was there, there were both sold out, and not sold out
    02-16-13 02:26 PM
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