[brucep1]

Risky? Certainly. Smart? Not the term I would use.

Devices releasing in the fall means that users looking to upgrade have a lot more options and will be locked into contracts come 2013. I mean let's look at the lineup here...

iPhone 5
Motorola Droid Razr's
Nokia Lumia's
A new Google Galaxy Nexus phone

I see launching in 2013 as one of the many mistakes this comapny has made in the last 3 years.

[bitek]

I can see now why RIM has postponed launch of BB10 phone until early next year. Risky but very smart move. So many phones are being introduced now Nokia, Apple, Samsung, Motorola and rim is waiting until January when no other phones are released. All the spot light will be on RIM. BB10 will not disappear in the crowd. Also it seems like RIM choice might better than Nokia's. Nokia stock fell 13% since yesterday. I really liked one comment of somebody on this forum who wrote that it is interesting to see two companies in the same position choosing completely different paths to get back to the game. somehow i think rim will be on the top. BB10 will be something. I am pre-ordering the phone once it becomes available from Rogers.

[spike12]

Yes, I also think its a very interesting calculated risk. I think its a unique way of differentiating themselves by not directly competing with the other players out there.. walk your own path and make your own trail, rather than fighting for attention amongst the crowd. I think the initial purchasing may be slow as it usually is after the christmas season, but it will definitely help with exposure and building momentum after that.

As hindsite is always 20/20, only time will tell if their gamble pays off.. I hope it does.

[howarmat]

I say while its nice not to launch without very much competition I am also sure that if RIM could have been ready buy this fall they would have launched it.

With the delay you add in more months of waiting, having to announce yet another delay and add another really bad earnings report. All of those factors make the launch more crucial and allow for the company to take even more hits in the market and such.

[TgeekB]

Correct me if I'm wrong,but RIM's decision to launch in 2013 has nothing to with "blazing a trail". The product is not ready.

[spike12]

Correct me if I'm wrong,but RIM's decision to launch in 2013 has nothing to with "blazing a trail". The product is not ready.

yes, the foremost reason for the date IS the unfinished product, but I'm pointing out that there are some positives that might come about because of the postponement. They could have released a unfinished product again, but it would have been a huge mistake.. it was also a risk to delay it further than it already had been.

[spike12]

Why are the posts coming out in some strange order?

[spike12]

Risky? Certainly. Smart? Not the term I would use.

Devices releasing in the fall means that users looking to upgrade have a lot more options and will be locked into contracts come 2013.
I see launching in 2013 as one of the many mistakes this comapny has made in the last 3 years.

yes and there's just as many people who are locked into contracts currently that cannot buy the phones in 2012 and will have to wait until 2013.. by then those models you listed will be older.

[brucep1]

yes and there's just as many people who are locked into contracts currently that cannot buy the phones in 2012 and will have to wait until 2013.. by then those models you listed will be older.

Older but still in direct competition with BB10. Also, they are going to have the benefit of the doubt by having bugs worked out already in their software, app ecosystems, and media backing.

[spike12]

yes, but how would it be any different if they launched in the fall? they'd still have to work out the bugs being a newer OS, while directly competign against the already established systems out there.. but I'll agree you have a point in that they need to make sure that they iron out as many bugs as they can.. they really can't afford another half baked product. .. hence why they had to delay... why it happened in the first place? that is the million dollar question.

[Superfly_FR]

Risky? Certainly. Smart? Not the term I would use.

Devices releasing in the fall means that users looking to upgrade have a lot more options and will be locked into contracts come 2013. I mean let's look at the lineup here...

iPhone 5
Motorola Droid Razr's
Nokia Lumia's
A new Google Galaxy Nexus phone

I see launching in 2013 as one of the many mistakes this comapny has made in the last 3 years.

Basic marketing :
#1 : loyal customers
#2 : conquest
Yet, the sooner the better and they would have gained benefits with a fall launch. Certainly. But they were not ready. They just deal with it now.

[bitek]

buying phones is not seasonal business. people buy new phones when old contract is over. so pretty much people buy phones all year long. some will break there contract for iphone 5 etc. etc. i will break my contract for bb10 when it comes out. at least rim will have all the spotlight it needs in January or February when BB10 is out. Tech sites will have nothing better to write about but BB10 and it seems to me that BB10 will be great os. Hence many positive reviews.

It is interesting that Nokia got such cold shoulder from investor after the launch of its new phones. I am wondering how this will affect rim few months from now.

[howarmat]

buying phones is not seasonal business. people buy new phones when old contract is over. so pretty much people buy phones all year long. some will break there contract for iphone 5 etc. etc. i will break my contract for bb10 when it comes out. at least rim will have all the spotlight it needs in January or February when BB10 is out. Tech sites will have nothing better to write about but BB10 and it seems to me that BB10 will be great os. Hence many positive reviews.

It is interesting that Nokia got such cold shoulder from investor after the launch of its new phones. I am wondering how this will affect rim few months from now.

they will have an actual product in BB10 to write about but also all the new stuff revieled at CES. Granted what we see at CES doesnt really come out for a few months but none the less the hype for those devices begins. Some people will wait for them too.

[neteng1000]

I dont get it. They will release it when its ready. Long term contracts are signed Jan, Feb, Mar, April, etc..... Not just the fall time.

It would have been nice to have made this Christmas season but it comes around every year so they can sign long term contracts next year, and the year after, and so on.

[shemaree09]

Basic marketing :
#1 : loyal customers
#2 : conquest
Yet, the sooner the better and they would have gained benefits with a fall launch. Certainly. But they were not ready. They just deal with it now.

What loyal customers though? Outside of Crackberry, where are they?

I completely agree that releasing 2013 is a bad move. Like the OP said, by then most people will already be locked into contracts from Fall phone releases.

Those with Blackberry's who didn't upgrade to OS 7 are more than likely gonna move to a different platform this Fall.

In all honesty, I think they should have put in more work to make it available for Fall. Forget the 4G Playbook and cheap Curves no one is gonna buy and focus on BB10. There has been talk about Blackberry 10 for almost 2 years now. There really is no excuse.

[mikeo007]

buying phones is not seasonal business. people buy new phones when old contract is over. so pretty much people buy phones all year long. some will break there contract for iphone 5 etc. etc. i will break my contract for bb10 when it comes out. at least rim will have all the spotlight it needs in January or February when BB10 is out. Tech sites will have nothing better to write about but BB10 and it seems to me that BB10 will be great os. Hence many positive reviews.

It is interesting that Nokia got such cold shoulder from investor after the launch of its new phones. I am wondering how this will affect rim few months from now.

Phones sales may not be a seasonal business, but it certainly fluctuates by season.
Christmas and back-to-school are the two biggest seasons for cell phone activations (at least in north America). The lowest quarter for new phone activations has historically been the 1st calendar quarter.

The only smart thing about launching Bb10 in Q1 is that they will be releasing a fully-baked product (hopefully).

[GTiLeo]

yes and there is also this buzz around BB10 and some folks might be interested to see what it has to offer since resently media outlets have been sayign the technology in it is good its now simply about execution., and hold off on upgradeing or signing their next contract

in some ways these media outlets saying BB10 is good is marketing for RIM all on its own.

[shemaree09]

yes and there is also this buzz around BB10 and some folks might be interested to see what it has to offer since resently media outlets have been sayign the technology in it is good its now simply about execution., and hold off on upgradeing or signing their next contract

in some ways these media outlets saying BB10 is good is marketing for RIM all on its own.

I seriously doubt it. With so many new choices coming out this Fall why would you wait until XX-XX-2013 for the unknown?

[njblackberry]

What buzz is that?
Outside of BlackBerry Boards and Support Forums.

[Thunderbuck]

I seriously doubt it. With so many new choices coming out this Fall why would you wait until XX-XX-2013 for the unknown?

For the average, non-brand-loyal consumer, no reason at all. The thing is, RIM has already lost that customer anyway.

I'm in the "smart move" camp, and here's why: WP8 and iPhone 5 will be slugging it out for media attention and mindshare this fall. RIM would be laughed off the field no matter how good BB10 is. By next year, RIM's last hope will have been written off as a failure.

I think there's a "loyalty bump" that will help the BB10 launch to the tune of maybe a half-million units. In November/December, that volume will be a rounding error. In January/February, it will be a surge. In other words, BB10 looks better in a Q1 launch even with lower sales numbers. Remember, perception is reality.

Yes, it's risky, and yes, they lose some sales they might have had by launching before Christmas. OTOH, they get a little more time to polish the product (and get more developers on board for a larger app portfolio), little media competition at launch, and a bigger bang from initial loyalty sales.

The upside outweighs the downside.

[GTiLeo]

with your logic what makes other phones any different then BlackBerrys, why wait if the iPhone5 is being released in a few weeks, why wait for nexus or droid or even nokia, why not just jump. plus those that have speculation when the iPhone5 will come our are those that are on tech forums the general public doesn't know when ipone5 will come out or that it has the same generic look as the 4 and 4S, or that iOS6 has minor enhancments.

plus the media has already reported about the death of RIM and their last hope is BB10 which has been delayedbecause they want it to be perfect.

[shemaree09]

Yes, it's risky, and yes, they lose some sales they might have had by launching before Christmas. OTOH, they get a little more time to polish the product (and get more developers on board for a larger app portfolio), little media competition at launch, and a bigger bang from initial loyalty sales.

The upside outweighs the downside.

Maybe, but we all know how RIM's marketing department operates....................

[GTiLeo]

Maybe, but we all know how RIM's marketing department operates....................

no we actually don't yet, we kno how they used to operate now they have a new CMO and a new team leader

[syn-ack]

Sorry to disagree, but umm no....
It's seasonal because many people bought their first phones seasonal so their 1/2/3yr contracts are up seasonally... Apple doesnt release their newest phones every year about the same time by accident... they are sopping up the all their existing customers with new phones as contracts expire. pick up a few new phone customers like jane and johnny at Christmas time when mommy and daddy are likely to shell out a few hun...

RIM will release just in time for superbowl.... while everyone is thinking HDTV's...
:S

Syn

buying phones is not seasonal business. people buy new phones when old contract is over. so pretty much people buy phones all year long. some will break there contract for iphone 5 etc. etc. i will break my contract for bb10 when it comes out. at least rim will have all the spotlight it needs in January or February when BB10 is out. Tech sites will have nothing better to write about but BB10 and it seems to me that BB10 will be great os. Hence many positive reviews.

It is interesting that Nokia got such cold shoulder from investor after the launch of its new phones. I am wondering how this will affect rim few months from now.

[Thunderbuck]

Sorry to disagree, but umm no....
It's seasonal because many people bought their first phones seasonal so their 1/2/3yr contracts are up seasonally... Apple doesnt release their newest phones every year about the same time by accident... they are sopping up the all their existing customers with new phones as contracts expire. pick up a few new phone customers like jane and johnny at Christmas time when mommy and daddy are likely to shell out a few hun...

RIM will release just in time for superbowl.... while everyone is thinking HDTV's...
:S

Syn

You absolutely have a point. My theory is that RIM is assuming that typical holiday buyer has already written them off, so going after them THIS year is suicidal.

The "faithful" know BB10 is coming and will hold out the extra couple of months. A fair chunk of the Enterprise market will at least give it a chance. I think RIM wants to start with these buyers, and if the product is good they'll spread the word.

Again, if BB10 launched head-to-head against both iPhone 5 and WP8, the overwhelming likelihood is that it would be beaten badly even if it were an absolutely superior product, and that's more a reflection of where the Blackberry brand is than the quality of the products themselves.

It's better for RIM to launch in Q1 next year. They stand at least a chance of boosting their market share for the sake of that one quarter, and the product is off to a good start. If they launch in Q4 the best they can hope for is to slow their current market share erosion, and hardly anyone will care.

You could almost liken it to a pilot deliberately putting a stalling plane into a dive to speed up enough to reestablish lift.