01-02-12 05:21 PM
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  1. app_Developer's Avatar
    But's it's not a replacement, it's an addition revenue.
    I think you're missing the bigger picture. Almost every phone sold in the US comes with a substantial carrier subsidy. And RIM's former business in the US was largely high end phones with healthy margins (when you include the subsidies)

    That business is now shifting to lower end phones in other countries, often without subsidies. Even if they were increasing unit sales (which they say they aren't now), you still need growth elsewhere to make up for the loss of the highly profitable US market. Subscriber fees are not enough to make up that difference. That is the dynamic which investors around the world are watching closely.
    Last edited by app_Developer; 12-31-11 at 02:10 PM.
    12-31-11 02:05 PM
  2. sleepngbear's Avatar
    11% is not that bad in a recession no? Rim's problems started with the PlayBook and it lost Rim a lot of money.

    BBOS devices are as strong as ever, profit and numbers sold if you take the PlayBook, QNX and all other companies they purchased since then.
    I kinda have to disagree ... BB phones are barely holding their own, while that all-important measure of market share continues to fall off. Which is not the worst-case scenario ... it could certainly be worse -- they could have Windows phone share numbers.

    Edit: Plus what app_Developer said. ^^^
    12-31-11 02:05 PM
  3. app_Developer's Avatar
    11% is not that bad in a recession no? Rim's problems started with the PlayBook and it lost Rim a lot of money.
    Why is this recession only affecting RIM? Their competitors profits are all up in this sector. So market conditions are no excuse here.

    Is Apple suffering from this recession?

    BBOS devices are as strong as ever, profit and numbers sold if you take the PlayBook, QNX and all other companies they purchased since then.
    Please cite the specific numbers you are talking about here. It's hard to see what numbers you are analyzing.
    12-31-11 02:07 PM
  4. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Why is this recession only affecting RIM? Their competitors profits are all up in this sector. So market conditions are no excuse here.

    Is Apple suffering from this recession?



    Please cite the specific numbers you are talking about here. It's hard to see what numbers you are analyzing.
    Show me Motorola's profits. Oh, that's right, they made a loss....again

    Apple makes other products too but they had plenty products that failed, Apple TV being one of them

    14+ million devices sold last quarter, more then the quarter before or the same quarter the year before.
    12-31-11 02:14 PM
  5. app_Developer's Avatar
    Show me Motorola's profits. Oh, that's right, they made a loss....again

    Apple makes other products too but they had plenty products that failed, Apple TV being one of them

    14+ million devices sold last quarter, more then the quarter before or the same quarter the year before.
    Avoiding the point again that Apple's sales and profits from the iPhone business are all up in the same exact economic conditions that RIM faces. Economic conditions are not an excuse in this sector. Or do we only compare RIM to other poorly managed companies?

    14 millions devices at a lower average cost than before. They have to do much better than that to make up for the high margin sales they are losing. That's a point you seem not to understand for some reason.

    And again, their forecast for this quarter is much lower, even in unit count, because sell-through last quarter was not, in fact, 14 million.
    Last edited by app_Developer; 12-31-11 at 02:22 PM.
    12-31-11 02:20 PM
  6. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Avoiding the point again that Apple's sales and profits from the iPhone business are all up in the same exact economic conditions that RIM faces. Or do we only compare RIM to other poorly managed companies?

    14 millions devices at a lower average cost than before. They have to do much better than that to make up for the high margin sales they are losing. That's a point you seem not to understand for some reason.

    And again, their forecast for this quarter is much lower, even in unit count, because sell-through last quarter was not, in fact, 14 million.
    Why must everything be compared to Apple? Some make more money then others. I see companies closing left right and centre around me, making profits in a recession is good enough for me.

    Motorola is Rim's competitor too, why don't you compare Rim to them for a change?

    Rim:

    Revenue of $5.2 billion, up 24% from last quarter
    BlackBerry smartphone shipments of 14.1 million, up 33% from Q2
    GAAP net income of $265 million or $0.51 per share diluted; adjusted net income of $667 million or $1.27 per share diluted
    Subscribers up 35% year-over-year to almost 75 million
    Cash flow from operations of approximately $895 million
    Total of cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments of $1.5 billion

    Motorola:

    ????
    Last edited by belfastdispatcher; 12-31-11 at 02:28 PM.
    12-31-11 02:24 PM
  7. app_Developer's Avatar
    Why must everything be compared to Apple? Some make more money then others. I see companies closing left right and centre around me, making profits in a recession is good enough for me.

    Motorola is Rim's competitor too, why don't you compare Rim to them for a change?
    Because when you are in a race, you generally don't measure your success relative to the people in last place.

    RIM is an independent publicly held company that is in only one business. To get back to the point of the thread, for RIM to survive as an independent company they must grow in profits. That's how it works. This quarter is going to be tough for them, as will the next 3 in all likelihood.

    They cannot turn this around by selling millions of cheap phones against Asian competitors who will continue to ratchet their prices down in 2012 and 2013. That is the reality of the situation for RIM.

    So the hope is that BB10 allows them to again be competitive in the high end phone market. The profits from the high end market are essential for their survival. They cannot survive on low end phones and subscriber fees (unless of course they get bought or split up this year)

    This is why BB10 is so crucial for their survival, which goes the original point of this discussion which is why BB10 must save RIM.
    Last edited by app_Developer; 12-31-11 at 02:39 PM.
    12-31-11 02:31 PM
  8. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Because when you are in a race, you generally don't measure your success relative to the people in last place.

    RIM is an independent publicly held company that is in only one business. To get back to the point of the thread, for RIM to survive as an independent company they must grow in profits. That's how it works. This quarter is going to be tough for them, as will the next 3 in likelihood.

    They cannot turn this around by selling millions of cheap phones against Asian competitors who will continue to ratchet their prices down in 2012 and 2013. That is the reality of the situation for RIM.

    So the hope is that BB10 allows them to again be competitive in the high end phone market. The profits from the high end market are essential for their survival. They cannot survive on low end phones and subscriber fees (unless of course they get bought or split up this year)

    This is why BB10 is so crucial for their survival.
    It's not a race and even if it was, it's important to be on the podium and Rim is on the third position with 4th pretty far behing.
    12-31-11 02:36 PM
  9. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    The reason Motorola's profits are down is because they also sell cheap feature phones, not just high-end Android devices.

    RIM needs to sell more high-end devices not cheap Curves, to regain profitability.

    Just look at the number of posters here on Crackberry who lack BIS plans. Generally those folks have cheap Curves.
    12-31-11 02:41 PM
  10. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    The reason Motorola's profits are down is because they also sell cheap feature phones, not just high-end Android devices.

    RIM needs to sell more high-end devices not cheap Curves, to regain profitability.

    Just look at the number of posters here on Crackberry who lack BIS plans. Generally those folks have cheap Curves.
    Motorola is making losses not profits.

    People with cheap Curves with no BIS I can quarantee you they bought it second hand and they don't count at all. Personaly I don't know anybody with a BB without Bis.
    12-31-11 02:45 PM
  11. melb_me's Avatar
    You know QNX is going to be a very good OS. What if RIM said hey Samsung how would you like to license our cool new OS from US?
    12-31-11 02:46 PM
  12. app_Developer's Avatar
    It's not a race and even if it was, it's important to be on the podium and Rim is on the third position with 4th pretty far behing.
    Two mistakes: one, of course it is a race. They are a publicly held company in a fast growing business. If they don't think they are in a race, they will surely fail.

    Two, we're talking about them surviving as an independent company. If they maintain their current valuation, and don't increase profits, they cannot expect their owners to keep them independent on in one piece. They can't tell the owners "well we're in third place in our primary line of business!"
    12-31-11 02:50 PM
  13. herculesinwyoming's Avatar
    Super wal-mart comes to town and all the small mom and pop grocery stores go under.
    FACT!
    12-31-11 02:53 PM
  14. teknishun's Avatar
    Motorola is making losses not profits.
    Yes but unfortunately for RIM, they aren't backed by Google's extremely large bank account.
    12-31-11 02:55 PM
  15. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    Two mistakes: one, of course it is a race. They are a publicly held company in a fast growing business. If they don't think they are in a race, they will surely fail.

    Two, we're talking about them surviving as an independent company. If they maintain their current valuation, and don't increase profits, they cannot expect their owners to keep them independent on in one piece. They can't tell the owners "well we're in third place in our primary line of business!"
    That is true. Generally, stockholders invest in a company to make money, not because they are enamored by the company's products.
    12-31-11 02:55 PM
  16. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    Two mistakes: one, of course it is a race. They are a publicly held company in a fast growing business. If they don't think they are in a race, they will surely fail.

    Two, we're talking about them surviving as an independent company. If they maintain their current valuation, and don't increase profits, they cannot expect their owners to keep them independent on in one piece. They can't tell the owners "well we're in third place in our primary line of business!"
    To be in a race it implies there's a finish line, and there isn't, it's a business that constantly changes and adapts, at some point they can go in different directions.

    Any of them is liable to making wrong decisions at any turn, Rim has made some, so has Apple in the past. Nothing can guarantee you future sales. Motorola high end devices did not sell very well, frankly they flopped, Atrix and Xoom.

    And so far only 10% of the global mobile phones are the so called smartphones, saying that the feature phones are not important is simply wrong. Not everybody wants top of the range Ferraris, most buy the Fords.
    12-31-11 03:00 PM
  17. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    That is true. Generally, stockholders invest in a company to make money, not because they are enamored by the company's products.
    Google has shareholders too, do you think they're gonna approve forever throwing money at a black hole?(Motorola and possibly Android) when it eats out of their profits?
    12-31-11 03:05 PM
  18. Laura Knotek's Avatar

    And so far only 10% of the global mobile phones are the so called smartphones, saying that the feature phones are not important is simply wrong. Not everybody wants top of the range Ferraris, most buy the Fords.
    RIM will not become more profitable by becoming a feature phone manufacturer.

    One possibility that might help profitability is exiting the hardware business and becoming a services business. They could license their OS to other handset manufacturers and just run BIS/BES.
    kevinnugent likes this.
    12-31-11 03:23 PM
  19. ajaymann5607's Avatar
    There's another thread on here today about whether BB10 will be enough to 'save' RIM, and several more similar.. and I have to say I just don't understand the question.. It seems every argument on RIM's failings has to do with the drop in market share.. Now I am not an economist, but I have been in business for a long time, and I can tell you market share is an absolutely useless measurement of how well a company is doing..

    Lets take this scenario for example..

    You live in a small town, and you open a sandwich shop.. your doing very well, and you sell $100,000 dollars worth of sandwiches.. your are very happy with this, you play the status quoe and you just make that hundred grand every year.. your income is steady and you have 100% of the sandwich market in your town. NOW Subway rolls into town and opens a store.. they put out a huge marketing plan.. more people start eating sandwiches.. the next year subway make $300,000 dollars and you make $150,000 dollars. Oh no, your market share has dropped from 100% to 50%, that must be terrible!!! But wait, last year you sold $100,000 dollars worth of sandwiches, and this year you sold $150,000 dollars worth... WHO CARES WHAT SUBWAY SOLD, OR WHAT YOUR MARKET SHARE IS? YOU SOLD 50 GRAND MORE THEN LAST YEAR!!!

    Obviously this is a very simple example.. but this is RIM's situation.. being as they where one of the first smartphone makers, yes their market share has dropped, and it continues to do so.. but not because they have lost a single subscriber.. but because the market as a whole has gotten bigger.. in fact RIM has continued to ADD subscribers year after year and are now at their highest user base EVER! But you want to call it failing because someone else is doing better? Such is life, there will always be someone doing better then you, but that has NOTHING to do with how well you are doing.

    Unless a day comes where we see the number of subscribers actually falling..RIM is doing just fine..
    well does anyone know if the bb's nw will get an update for the bb10 like the 9900. or will they just bring new devices and the money is a waste that we spend a month ago on the new phones??
    12-31-11 03:31 PM
  20. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    well does anyone know if the bb's nw will get an update for the bb10 like the 9900. or will they just bring new devices and the money is a waste that we spend a month ago on the new phones??
    I answered in the other thread. No. None of the current devices will run BB10.
    12-31-11 03:33 PM
  21. melb_me's Avatar
    Super wal-mart comes to town and all the small mom and pop grocery stores go under.
    FACT!
    Wal-mart comes to town and your town suddenly sucks! Is more like it.
    12-31-11 03:33 PM
  22. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    RIM will not become more profitable by becoming a feature phone manufacturer.

    One possibility that might help profitability is exiting the hardware business and becoming a services business. They could license their OS to other handset manufacturers and just run BIS/BES.
    Don't underestimate the feature phones, they're a lot smarter then you think, the main reason people buy them is size, smartphones are just too big. Overall they're not that much cheaper, they still need a line rental and a data plan.
    12-31-11 03:48 PM
  23. app_Developer's Avatar
    To be in a race it implies there's a finish line, and there isn't, it's a business that constantly changes and adapts, at some point they can go in different directions.
    And when you fail to change and adapt, you go in one direction only. Which again, is the point of this discussion wrt RIM.

    Any of them is liable to making wrong decisions at any turn, Rim has made some, so has Apple in the past. Nothing can guarantee you future sales. Motorola high end devices did not sell very well, frankly they flopped, Atrix and Xoom.
    So if RIM doesn't start making better decisions, wouldn't you agree they end up like Motorola? This is the Motorola that failed to survive as an independent company. First they were split into two companies, and then the mobile device business was sold off. That is the outcome that we would like RIM to avoid, if BB10 will help them avoid it.

    The OP in this thread seem flabbergasted that we are discussing RIM's fragile future. Again, their future is in doubt because they are being gradually pushed out of the business on which they have made most of their profits over the years (high end, high margin smartphones).

    And so far only 10% of the global mobile phones are the so called smartphones, saying that the feature phones are not important is simply wrong. Not everybody wants top of the range Ferraris, most buy the Fords.
    The reason this discussion is focused on the smartphone market, is because we're talking about RIM. RIM operates in the smartphone market. They used to dominate it, in fact.
    Last edited by app_Developer; 12-31-11 at 04:11 PM.
    12-31-11 04:03 PM
  24. belfastdispatcher's Avatar
    And when you fail to change and adapt, you go in one direction only. Which again, is the point of this discussion wrt RIM.



    So if RIM doesn't start making better decisions, wouldn't you agree they end up like Motorola? This is the Motorola that failed to survive as an independent company. First they were split into two companies, and then the mobile device business was sold off. That is the outcome that we would like RIM to avoid, if BB10 will help them avoid it.



    The reason this discussion is focused on the smartphone market, is because we're talking about RIM. RIM operates in the smartphone market. They used to dominate it, in fact.

    There's no way of knowing until the product is on shelves, people vote with their wallets.

    Rim only dominated the smartphone market in North America, in the rest of the world they're going up and up. There was no falling from grace over here as they were never the leader, it's a slow upwards movement. So we have a different perspective.

    What is clear is that USA needs a different product from Rim compared to the rest of the world.

    In the end the "smartphone" market it's just a made up thing, it doesn't really exist as they're all mobile phones. it would be better to call it "luxury phone market"
    12-31-11 04:13 PM
  25. kevinnugent's Avatar
    I kinda have to disagree ... BB phones are barely holding their own, while that all-important measure of market share continues to fall off. Which is not the worst-case scenario ... it could certainly be worse -- they could have Windows phone share numbers.

    Edit: Plus what app_Developer said. ^^^
    That wouldn't be so bad to have Windows Phone market share if they had MSFT type resources. They don't.
    12-31-11 04:14 PM
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