[anon(55900)]

I totally get BlackBerry's need to go with the Android OS and from what I've seen of it on the Priv. I like the little changes made like tiles instead of Rolodex in active Apps window.

But, my screen preference and keyboard are strongly centered on my Passport. My hope is that at some point in the future BlackBerry will come out with either a new unlocked Passport running on Android or that they can get Android OS upgrade for existing Passports or both!

Anyone else feel this way too!

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Lot of folks hoping the same......

But it looks like if it happens, it won't be anytime this year.

[conite]

The Android ecosystem does not lend itself as nicely to 1:1 screen sizes. The leaked image of the Vienna trades in the typical square screen of the traditional BlackBerry keyboard devices for what looks like a 3:2 ratio screen.

If the BlackBerry Android devices are deemed somewhat successful (or at least enough to warrant continued development), who knows what the future may being.

[Grafic111]

Well I am waiting to see what they have in store for us next. An android BlackBerry or BB10

Blackberry Classic | Circa 2015

[rohetaku]

The Android ecosystem does not lend itself as nicely to 1:1 screen sizes. The leaked image of the Vienna trades in the typical square screen of the traditional BlackBerry keyboard devices for what looks like a 3:2 ratio screen.

If the BlackBerry Android devices are deemed somewhat successful (or at least enough to warrant continued development), who knows what the future may being.

Don't mind black on both sides of the screen and the app running in the midle in the same format at rectangle phones.

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

Super wide but with only a 4.5 inch screen has not been successful. The Vienna will be much better.

Posted via CB10

[anon(55900)]

The Android ecosystem does not lend itself as nicely to 1:1 screen sizes. The leaked image of the Vienna trades in the typical square screen of the traditional BlackBerry keyboard devices for what looks like a 3:2 ratio screen.

If the BlackBerry Android devices are deemed somewhat successful (or at least enough to warrant continued development), who knows what the future may being.

I figured that at least it could act like a PC (android on Passport), use the max width then scroll down to catch the bottom of webs pages, etc.? Get video letter boxed like now on Passport.

[rvteixeira]

I have a passport and a Priv. For me Passport Is the best. I also do not see yet a strong reason why Android is selling more. For me BlackBerry OS 10 is much better? Only because some fancy apps which we will not use?

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I have a passport and a Priv. For me Passport Is the best. I also do not see yet a strong reason why Android is selling more. For me BlackBerry OS 10 is much better? Only because some fancy apps which we will not use?

Posted via CB10

Yeah it doesn't appear that the PRIV is on track for overall 5 Million devices... but that has more to do with the hardware and the price than with Android.... Android is a seller, you can't in any way doubt that.

"fancy apps".... just no money to be made in meeting the low expectation of the minority that doesn't want or need apps. It's Android, or it's nothing.

But yeah, BB10 was the superior OS.... just too many other factors got in the way of it being a viable success.

[Troy Tiscareno]

I have a passport and a Priv. For me Passport Is the best. I also do not see yet a strong reason why Android is selling more. For me BlackBerry OS 10 is much better? Only because some fancy apps which we will not use?

Android has 83% marketshare. BB10 has less than 0.1% marketshare. Obviously, the vast, VAST majority of people want apps, and chose their phone OS based on app availability. You may disagree, and you may legitimately not use apps, but that only makes you an exception to the rule. And it's virtually impossible to build a profitable business trying to serve such a tiny niche when the ongoing fixed costs are so high that they require selling 10M+ devices per year just to break even.

The only reason BB10 ever hit the market is because BB has been willing to lose $9B or so in the hopes of eventually finding a way to reverse that trend and make a profit on BB10 - which would have required a FAR larger rate of adoption, and clearly not possible at this point (the writing was already on the wall by fall of 2013). BB has massively subsidized every BB10 phone they've ever made, and the only way to keep making them is to keep losing money on them - and as sales decline, that means losing more and more money per unit sold.

BB shareholders simply aren't prepared to keep losing money anymore - but that's exactly what you're asking them to do by asking them to continue making BB10 phones. As sales drop below 1M per year, BB would probably need to charge $2000 or more per phone in order for BB10 just to break even (something it's never done). How many people do you think would pay $2000 for a BB10 phone with an increasingly outdated Android Runtime and increasingly fewer native apps? The answer is: not nearly enough to be viable.

[anon(55900)]

Android has 83% marketshare. BB10 has less than 0.1% marketshare. Obviously, the vast, VAST majority of people want apps, and chose their phone OS based on app availability. You may disagree, and you may legitimately not use apps, but that only makes you an exception to the rule. And it's virtually impossible to build a profitable business trying to serve such a tiny niche when the ongoing fixed costs are so high that they require selling 10M+ devices per year just to break even.

The only reason BB10 ever hit the market is because BB has been willing to lose $9B or so in the hopes of eventually finding a way to reverse that trend and make a profit on BB10 - which would have required a FAR larger rate of adoption, and clearly not possible at this point (the writing was already on the wall by fall of 2013). BB has massively subsidized every BB10 phone they've ever made, and the only way to keep making them is to keep losing money on them - and as sales decline, that means losing more and more money per unit sold.

BB shareholders simply aren't prepared to keep losing money anymore - but that's exactly what you're asking them to do by asking them to continue making BB10 phones. As sales drop below 1M per year, BB would probably need to charge $2000 or more per phone in order for BB10 just to break even (something it's never done). How many people do you think would pay $2000 for a BB10 phone with an increasingly outdated Android Runtime and increasingly fewer native apps? The answer is: not nearly enough to be viable.

I don't think most people here on CB have BB stock nor care about personal profitting off of BB stock, most care about the history, the pride, the best hardware ever, the new BB10 experience. Loyalty without question, sans stock ownership.

[jope28]

Android has 83% marketshare. BB10 has less than 0.1% marketshare. Obviously, the vast, VAST majority of people want apps, and chose their phone OS based on app availability. You may disagree, and you may legitimately not use apps, but that only makes you an exception to the rule. And it's virtually impossible to build a profitable business trying to serve such a tiny niche when the ongoing fixed costs are so high that they require selling 10M+ devices per year just to break even.

The only reason BB10 ever hit the market is because BB has been willing to lose $9B or so in the hopes of eventually finding a way to reverse that trend and make a profit on BB10 - which would have required a FAR larger rate of adoption, and clearly not possible at this point (the writing was already on the wall by fall of 2013). BB has massively subsidized every BB10 phone they've ever made, and the only way to keep making them is to keep losing money on them - and as sales decline, that means losing more and more money per unit sold.

BB shareholders simply aren't prepared to keep losing money anymore - but that's exactly what you're asking them to do by asking them to continue making BB10 phones. As sales drop below 1M per year, BB would probably need to charge $2000 or more per phone in order for BB10 just to break even (something it's never done). How many people do you think would pay $2000 for a BB10 phone with an increasingly outdated Android Runtime and increasingly fewer native apps? The answer is: not nearly enough to be viable.

I'm curious as to what you think might happen.

Which OS do you predict that those of us in that small minority/niche (that don't worry about apps and are happy with BB10) will move to when BB10 is no longer an option?

 Frosty White Q10/.2876 CB10 

[Troy Tiscareno]

I don't think most people here on CB have BB stock nor care about personal profitting off of BB stock, most care about the history, the pride, the best hardware ever, the new BB10 experience. Loyalty without question, sans stock ownership.

I completely agree with this. Many folks here are not BB fans, but rather BB10 fans (and perhaps former BBOS fans). As BB10 fades out, they'll simply stop caring about BB entirely. We've already had a couple dozen announce just that as they departed. A few others claim to be BB supporters, but it's clear they are only BB10 supporters, and don't really care about the company as a whole. And, really, that's probably as it should be. BB doesn't care about any specific individual - it really doesn't matter how many BB phones you've bought over the years, or how many people you've referred to BB phones, or how many BB T-shirts, hats, or vinyl stickers you sport, BB doesn't know who you are and won't cry if you leave, so at the end of the day it's the product that should matter. Either it meets your needs or it doesn't, and if/when it doesn't, you should move on to something that does and not feel overly concerned about it. I would argue that the "blind faithful" who will buy anything with a BB logo on it actually hurt the company, by enabling them to make poor decisions without feeling the full consequences of those poor decisions.

BUT... folks must also realize that Chen, the Board of Directors, and the shareholders don't care about BB10 either, except to the degree that it brings in net profits - and BB10 has only brought big net losses. As such, they're happy to dump it as soon as they can and move on to other product lines that have a possibility of being profitable. You can't blame them for that, though - imagine if you'd bought into BB at $60/share - HALF of its all-time high - and now its hovering around $7/share because of all of BB10's losses. You'd be anxious for BB to dump BB10 and move into profitable areas too.

[Troy Tiscareno]

I'm curious as to what you think might happen.

Which OS do you predict that those of us in that small minority/niche (that don't worry about apps and are happy with BB10) will move to when BB10 is no longer an option?

You can already see it happening. Some are moving to iOS because the apps are good and because they feel it's more secure/private with app permissions and being closed-source (though the latter is really not true - being open source often makes things more secure). Others will move to Android because they like the ability to customize their phone to do exactly what they want it to do - and you can do just about anything with an Android phone. The contrarians will find another niche OS because they refuse to be mainstream regardless of any potential benefits - or because they need the drama and "project nature" that comes with a niche OS. And some will slog on with their BB10 device, angry as more and more apps and services drop BB10 support but preferring to use it for mail and messaging for as long as they can, even if they have to buy and carry a second phone to "get things done" ...er, I mean, "run those stupid, pointless fart apps that are just needless distractions that no one needs in their life - except the 5 apps that I care about and need to get through my day, which are the only important ones."

[Bbnivende]

I completely agree with this. Many folks here are not BB fans, but rather BB10 fans (and perhaps former BBOS fans). As BB10 fades out, they'll simply stop caring about BB entirely. We've already had a couple dozen announce just that as they departed. A few others claim to be BB supporters, but it's clear they are only BB10 supporters, and don't really care about the company as a whole. And, really, that's probably as it should be. BB doesn't care about any specific individual - it really doesn't matter how many BB phones you've bought over the years, or how many people you've referred to BB phones, or how many BB T-shirts, hats, or vinyl stickers you sport, BB doesn't know who you are and won't cry if you leave, so at the end of the day it's the product that should matter. Either it meets your needs or it doesn't, and if/when it doesn't, you should move on to something that does and not feel overly concerned about it. I would argue that the "blind faithful" who will buy anything with a BB logo on it actually hurt the company, by enabling them to make poor decisions without feeling the full consequences of those poor decisions.

BUT... folks must also realize that Chen, the Board of Directors, and the shareholders don't care about BB10 either, except to the degree that it brings in net profits - and BB10 has only brought big net losses. As such, they're happy to dump it as soon as they can and move on to other product lines that have a possibility of being profitable. You can't blame them for that, though - imagine if you'd bought into BB at $60/share - HALF of its all-time high - and now its hovering around $7/share because of all of BB10's losses. You'd be anxious for BB to dump BB10 and move into profitable areas too.

Troy, what kind of Android phones should BlackBerry make that would be successful in the market place. Should they make an all touch? Premium or mid range ?

[Troy Tiscareno]

Troy, what kind of Android phones should BlackBerry make that would be successful in the market place. Should they make an all touch? Premium or mid range ?

IMO, they need to make an all-touch with top (or very close) specs, even if they charge a lot for it as they did with the Priv. If they're able to get $800 US for a phone (retail - BB themselves probably gets $350-400 of that), they'll do okay.

They probably also need to make a mid-range phone in the $550 range, with the latest 600-series SoC and good-but-not-best specs. I would again make a full-touch and a 4:3-type keyboard phone like Vienna (in fact, Vienna might more-or-less be the keyboard version of this phone) for $50 more.

IMO, BB needs to think like Apple: fewer SKUs, and target the upper end of the market, and FORGET about volume for now. With higher pricing, they can break even with fewer devices, and if they keep the quality high, they will, over time, start to rebuild their reputation among the general population without having to spend a ton on brand-image-based advertising to do it - let the product speak for itself.

Anyway, that's what I would be thinking about. BB simply doesn't have the brand image or the volume to play in the low end of the market, and they'd get eaten alive by the competition, so they shouldn't bother. And if enterprises or governments want BB phones, they'll need to pay for them, just like they do for Apple.

But that's just what I would do. What I suspect Chen is going to do is slow things down and drag them out as much as he can to minimize risk while still appearing to be in the hardware business for another year or two - assuming he can build up the software end of the business in that time - and then end BB phones entirely. He'd need to be able to make the "BlackBerry Experience" available for non-BB phones, though, and I suspect that is exactly what he's actually planning to do; I think the idea of releasing the "BBE" right away was scrapped, and instead they'll continue to develop and refine it until it's good enough to have value on its own, and THEN BB's phone (hardware) business will go away.

[sorinv]

You can already see it happening. Some are moving to iOS because the apps are good and because they feel it's more secure/private with app permissions and being closed-source (though the latter is really not true - being open source often makes things more secure). Others will move to Android because they like the ability to customize their phone to do exactly what they want it to do - and you can do just about anything with an Android phone. The contrarians will find another niche OS because they refuse to be mainstream regardless of any potential benefits - or because they need the drama and "project nature" that comes with a niche OS. And some will slog on with their BB10 device, angry as more and more apps and services drop BB10 support but preferring to use it for mail and messaging for as long as they can, even if they have to buy and carry a second phone to "get things done" ...er, I mean, "run those stupid, pointless fart apps that are just needless distractions that no one needs in their life - except the 5 apps that I care about and need to get through my day, which are the only important ones."

I think that those who put their hopes in BlackBerry android will soon have to admit that this has been a big flop.
This decision has driven away from BlackBerry more people than it has attracted. Priv will sell in smaller numbers than BB10 devices.
BlackBerry users were a niche. Most don't want to be part of the 85%.
I can see how this will be more painful to accept than it is for BB10 users to accept that BB10 will not be developed further.

[Bbnivende]

Pretty hard for just about any Android to sell less than a Leap or Classic in 2016.

[sorinv]

It's pretty easy for Priv to sell in fewer numbers than z10 did in 2013 and 2014.
If all you hope for is for Priv to sell in larger numbers in 2016 than leap or classic will sell in 2016, then you are pulling a Chen. He, too, changed his target from 10M to 5M in a few months.
Likely next month he will move the goal post closer again, maybe to 3-4M, hoping that he might finally score.
He needs it desperately because his time is almost up. His legacy is over two years of rapidly declining revenues.

[conite]

It's pretty easy for Priv to sell in fewer numbers than z10 did in 2013 and 2014.
If all you hope for is for Priv to sell in larger numbers in 2016 than leap or classic will sell in 2016, then you are pulling a Chen. He, too, changed his target from 10M to 5M in a few months.
Likely next month he will move the goal post closer again, maybe to 3-4M, hoping that he might finally score.
He needs it desperately because his time is almost up. His legacy is over two years of rapidly declining revenues.

The post was moved from 10 million to 5 million because they no longer have to internally develop their own OS.

I think the actual number to make this viable is closer to 3 million, but we'll see.

[Troy Tiscareno]

It's pretty easy for Priv to sell in fewer numbers than z10 did in 2013 and 2014.

The Z10 was BB's first new phone in 2 years, and BB had at the time over 60M customers. Even still, the Z10 was a sales flop at full price, which is why the price was slashed by 2/3 only 5 months after it was released. The only reason the Z10 sold as well as it did is because it was high-mid-range hardware at an entry-level price after the price cut (which was the result of a write-down of over $1B by BB).

When the Priv launched, BB was down to under 30M customers total (with 20M still on BBOS!), and BB's brand image was much more damaged. And, yet, the Priv still hasn't had a massive price cut.

I don't expect the Priv to rival the Z10's numbers - neither does BB - but I do think it's the beginning of helping to turn around BB's negative brand image, and I also think it's going to continue to sell, even if the numbers aren't huge. It likely is outselling the Leap and Classic, though, since we're well after their "launch bubble" where demand is the highest.

If all you hope for is for Priv to sell in larger numbers in 2016 than leap or classic will sell in 2016, then you are pulling a Chen. He, too, changed his target from 10M to 5M in a few months.
Likely next month he will move the goal post closer again, maybe to 3-4M, hoping that he might finally score.
He needs it desperately because his time is almost up. His legacy is over two years of rapidly declining revenues.

The 10M/year figure was given when BB was making BB10 devices, which are MUCH more expensive, given that BB has to bear 100% of the costs of development. Chen revised it to 5M/year when he moved BB to Android, reflecting how much less development costs are to BB with Google doing most of the heavy lifting in the OS and ecosystem departments. If BB had kept going with BB10, that 10M/year figure would still be accurate - and they've been no where close to achieving it.

[Bluenoser63]

I completely agree with this. Many folks here are not BB fans, but rather BB10 fans (and perhaps former BBOS fans). As BB10 fades out, they'll simply stop caring about BB entirely. We've already had a couple dozen announce just that as they departed. A few others claim to be BB supporters, but it's clear they are only BB10 supporters, and don't really care about the company as a whole. And, really, that's probably as it should be. BB doesn't care about any specific individual - it really doesn't matter how many BB phones you've bought over the years, or how many people you've referred to BB phones, or how many BB T-shirts, hats, or vinyl stickers you sport, BB doesn't know who you are and won't cry if you leave, so at the end of the day it's the product that should matter. Either it meets your needs or it doesn't, and if/when it doesn't, you should move on to something that does and not feel overly concerned about it. I would argue that the "blind faithful" who will buy anything with a BB logo on it actually hurt the company, by enabling them to make poor decisions without feeling the full consequences of those poor decisions.

BUT... folks must also realize that Chen, the Board of Directors, and the shareholders don't care about BB10 either, except to the degree that it brings in net profits - and BB10 has only brought big net losses. As such, they're happy to dump it as soon as they can and move on to other product lines that have a possibility of being profitable. You can't blame them for that, though - imagine if you'd bought into BB at $60/share - HALF of its all-time high - and now its hovering around $7/share because of all of BB10's losses. You'd be anxious for BB to dump BB10 and move into profitable areas too.

I was a BlackBerry supporter. I used their products both on the hardware and software level. I was a BB10 Alpha developer and traveled 1000 miles to attend the workshops. I was a BES10 beta tester. I bought many BB10 devices for myself and our company. I also got involved in being a Enterprise Developer group manager. I also bought BlackBerry stock.

Now with the lack of visions and the move to Android, I sold my stock and am not renewing our BES support and no longer going to be involved with BlackBerry in any manner. I will continue to use my Z30 until it no longer works. But BlackBerry is relying on others to do the heavy lifting and will always be a follower. They are dropping good software like Blend and are trying to harm BlackBerry developers by trying to hide Native BB10 apps by killing the BfB program.

So to me the BB10 platform is great, but BlackBerry has treated Native programmers badly and don't know how to market and move the company forward. They made a bad mistake by getting rid of good software developers and now rely mostly on others. That is no way to have a good company when you don't have the skills inhouse as a software company. Chen also doesn't have a clue how to deal with consumers and he is saying one thing and doing the opposite. He should just keep his mouth shut as he is doing more harm than good.

As for development costs, BlackBerry is most likely spending as much if not more to follow Android and adapting Android with changes and applications as they did with BB10 since most of the development costs of BB10 are already costed into the product. BB10 development costs would only be changes. Now they have to do much more research to try and play catch up with each OS that Google releases.

[Troy Tiscareno]

So to me the BB10 platform is great, but BlackBerry has treated Native programmers badly and don't know how to market and move the company forward. They made a bad mistake by getting rid of good software developers and now rely mostly on others. That is no way to have a good company when you don't have the skills inhouse as a software company. Chen also doesn't have a clue how to deal with consumers and he is saying one thing and doing the opposite. He should just keep his mouth shut as he is doing more harm than good.

BB was never known for supporting developers. I always had the impression from BB's early days that Mike always felt he was doing developers a huge favor by letting them develop for BBOS, and certainly didn't seem to embrace smaller devs in any way. That attitude carried through with Heins (Mike's hand-picked successor), though clearly some of the VPs tried to change that culture, with some success.

Having said that, supporting developers costs the company money, and once BB10 had clearly failed (which was abundantly clear by July 2013), and the "for sale sign" went up, BB had little choice but to cut developer support for BB10. They simply didn't have the money, and it seemed clear that adoption rates were too low for it to matter much anyway. That wasn't really something BB chose to do - market forces made that decision for them. But its regrettable that it had such an impact on their faithful developers.

As for development costs, BlackBerry is most likely spending as much if not more to follow Android and adapting Android with changes and applications as they did with BB10 since most of the development costs of BB10 are already costed into the product. BB10 development costs would only be changes. Now they have to do much more research to try and play catch up with each OS that Google releases.

I don't really think BB's base changes to Android itself (for security, etc.) are all that difficult or time-consuming (the initial research perhaps, but not so much the implementation). I think the bigger costs have been BB having to develop Android versions of a lot of their own stuff - all of the "BB Experience" components and things like that. Sure, they'll have a long list of things to check and perhaps update with each major new build of Android in order to keep their flavor going, but that's not the biggest part of the cost.

It also means that BB has almost no "platform costs", and they don't have to pay for hardware drivers for every new phone (or be forced to use the same 3-year-old chipsets due to driver costs). Android brings a lot of advantages to BB, and roughly halves the volume of phones that BB needs to sell to break even compared to BB10 - per Chen. That's significant, especially since BB10 was no where close to meeting even that minimal level of sales.

[sorinv]

The Z10 was BB's first new phone in 2 years, and BB had at the time over 60M customers. Even still, the Z10 was a sales flop at full price, which is why the price was slashed by 2/3 only 5 months after it was released. The only reason the Z10 sold as well as it did is because it was high-mid-range hardware at an entry-level price after the price cut (which was the result of a write-down of over $1B by BB).

When the Priv launched, BB was down to under 30M customers total (with 20M still on BBOS!), and BB's brand image was much more damaged. And, yet, the Priv still hasn't had a massive price cut.

I don't expect the Priv to rival the Z10's numbers - neither does BB - but I do think it's the beginning of helping to turn around BB's negative brand image, and I also think it's going to continue to sell, even if the numbers aren't huge. It likely is outselling the Leap and Classic, though, since we're well after their "launch bubble" where demand is the highest.



The 10M/year figure was given when BB was making BB10 devices, which are MUCH more expensive, given that BB has to bear 100% of the costs of development. Chen revised it to 5M/year when he moved BB to Android, reflecting how much less development costs are to BB with Google doing most of the heavy lifting in the OS and ecosystem departments. If BB had kept going with BB10, that 10M/year figure would still be accurate - and they've been no where close to achieving it.

Z10 sold over 1M in the first month, before it was released in US.
Priv sold less in its first three weeks than the Passport did on the first day.
And the passport was sold only unlocked at full price through shopblackberry and amazon on that first day.
Your facts are wrong.

[tufcustomer]

Z10 sold over 1M in the first month, before it was released in US.
Priv sold less in its first three week than the Passport did on the first day.
And the passport was sold only unlocked at full price through shopblackberry and amazon on that first day.
Your facts are wrong.

Considering there are no sales figures on the Priv as of yet, your facts have no basis.

Posted via CB10