12-30-14 04:59 PM
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  1. sentimentGX4's Avatar
    There are a lot of companies looking at the exit door and Google's leverage is limited as OEMS are not making money. No profit means no glue to keep the OHA together. It's that simple.
    This is as much a Blackberry fan pipe dream as Apple and BB10 reversing places or Samsung ditching Android for Tizen.

    Most hardware OEMs, including the big ones such as Samsung, HTC, LG, etc., have no idea where to even begin with an OS/services without Google. China has the perfect void to foster a competitor to Android and still we have nothing with international appeal nor any company that will step up to the plate with a non-Android based OS.

    And mark my words, Google has ALL the leverage. Google plays nice because that's its business model but Android is ultimately its intellectual property and it could do lots to screw around with Xiaomi, Amazon, or BB10's Android runtime if it wanted to by tweaking Android.

    if there is no money to be made in selling Android HW, why would a company like Samsung continue to sell devices?
    I think the better question is: Why should Google give an incentive to Samsung (or LG or Sony, etc.) to continue to sell Android devices?

    From Google's view, most Android OEMs are expendable. The smartphone market is becoming more saturated like the PC market. But where there is money to be made no matter how little, there will always be companies lined up to take their place.

    The future of smartphones will likely be much like PCs. We will have a bunch of house name Chinese OEMs like Lenovo, Acer, and Asus and Samsung and Sony will be relegated to what their PC marketshare looks like. I can also see HP or Dell vying to take a place in a low profit smartphone environment simply to round out its hardware solutions and to remain relevant.
    Last edited by sentimentGX4; 12-29-14 at 12:52 PM.
    12-29-14 12:33 PM
  2. white shirt only's Avatar
    Huawei is more than an OEM. It's the biggest telecom equipment maker worldwide, suspected of spying clients and countries with its installations. I doubt BlackBerry will benefit from partnering with Huawei.

    Posted via CB10
    rthonpm likes this.
    12-29-14 12:35 PM
  3. Soulstream's Avatar
    Companies like Samsung can't just stay in business - they need to continue to show growth. Mobile has been a major growth area and also has spawned offshoots that also show potentially explosive expansion. I think Samsung has correctly recognized where they need to go but haven't yet figured out how to do it well. It explains why Tizen just won't stay dead but won't arise either - Samsung doesn't want to be just another Android OEM (by far the most successful one to date, if vulnerable) but likely doesn't feel confident that Tizen can give it the oomph to safely shake itself free of Android, or more importantly Google's services.

    Samsung has done a good job of making the Galaxy brand desirable, particularly at the lucrative high end. What they aren't doing so well is keeping it there. Not entirely sure why, though.
    The market is close to saturated. and also today most high-end phones are really powerful and don't need to be replaced even every two tears. This is exactly what happened to the PC market. For most people, you don't need to replace your PC even after 4-5 years.

    Also Samsung going with Tizen might end up in a failure. Windows phone didn't manage to gain a large traction (even with lots of Microsoft money) and BB10 again isn't doing much better. Why would tizen be better all of a sudded with no app ecosystem?
    12-29-14 01:26 PM
  4. white shirt only's Avatar
    Exactly, and one day or another, iPhone's sales will plateau as well.

    Posted via CB10
    12-29-14 01:41 PM
  5. Soulstream's Avatar
    Exactly, and one day or another, iPhone's sales will plateau as well.

    Posted via CB10
    Even if for the next 5 years apple will keep selling the same number of devices, they will still make a huge profit because their margins are very high.
    12-29-14 01:52 PM
  6. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    Companies like Samsung can't just stay in business - they need to continue to show growth. Mobile has been a major growth area and also has spawned offshoots that also show potentially explosive expansion. I think Samsung has correctly recognized where they need to go but haven't yet figured out how to do it well. It explains why Tizen just won't stay dead but won't arise either - Samsung doesn't want to be just another Android OEM (by far the most successful one to date, if vulnerable) but likely doesn't feel confident that Tizen can give it the oomph to safely shake itself free of Android, or more importantly Google's services.

    Samsung has done a good job of making the Galaxy brand desirable, particularly at the lucrative high end. What they aren't doing so well is keeping it there. Not entirely sure why, though.
    Agreed. But they can still show growth in mobile in other ways (being the LCD supplier of choice as a simplistic example). They don't necessarily need to sell phones. But if we are to assume that android OEM's need to continue making phones because mobile is a huge growth area, then I would argue this also holds true for BlackBerry and Microsoft despite their minuscule market share. They can't afford not to sell HW. They need to hang in the race.
    Tre Lawrence likes this.
    12-29-14 02:19 PM
  7. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    I think the better question is: Why should Google give an incentive to Samsung (or LG or Sony, etc.) to continue to sell Android devices?

    From Google's view, most Android OEMs are expendable. The smartphone market is becoming more saturated like the PC market. But where there is money to be made no matter how little, there will always be companies lined up to take their place.

    The future of smartphones will likely be much like PCs. We will have a bunch of house name Chinese OEMs like Lenovo, Acer, and Asus and Samsung and Sony will be relegated to what their PC marketshare looks like. I can also see HP or Dell vying to take a place in a low profit smartphone environment simply to round out its hardware solutions and to remain relevant.
    Last I checked, they gave them no incentive and probably never will. My argument is simple and the same one Android fans come her and make about BlackBerry. If there is no money to be made selling HW, why would an Android OEM stay in that business? I get it, if Samsung leaves then someone else will come in and take over. I don't disagree with this. I will add, what if the other OS's do offer incentives to manufacturers to build their phones, making Android less appealing? Not probable at this point in time, but who says it couldn't happen one day?

    If Google is that callous and arrogant about their OHA partners being expendable, than mark my words it will come back to haunt them one day. And this is Androids biggest problem. The OHA is not a partnership with Google. The OHA are just stooges for Google doing all the heavy lifting and dirty work while Google sits back, laughs, and counts the money.
    12-29-14 02:25 PM
  8. TGR1's Avatar
    Agreed. But they can still show growth in mobile in other ways (being the LCD supplier of choice as a simplistic example). They don't necessarily need to sell phones. But if we are to assume that android OEM's need to continue making phones because mobile is a huge growth area, then I would argue this also holds true for BlackBerry and Microsoft despite their minuscule market share. They can't afford not to sell HW. They need to hang in the race.
    It's the same reason why QNX doesn't give BBRY high-profile. Components don't make brand awareness (with notable exceptions such as chips).

    ETA: Agree, its a hard catch-22 for all these guys - too $$ to produce competitive/desirable handsets but too risky to the brand to bow out and be forgotten as a dinosaur.
    12-29-14 02:27 PM
  9. Old_Mil's Avatar
    If they optimize BB10 to run on a less than 1gb Huswai phone... maybe we will see bb10 on the PlayBook

    Posted via CB10
    12-29-14 02:30 PM
  10. Soulstream's Avatar
    Last I checked, they gave them no incentive and probably never will. My argument is simple and the same one Android fans come her and make about BlackBerry. If there is no money to be made selling HW, why would an Android OEM stay in that business? I get it, if Samsung leaves then someone else will come in and take over. I don't disagree with this. I will add, what if the other OS's do offer incentives to manufacturers to build their phones, making Android less appealing? Not probable at this point in time, but who says it couldn't happen one day?

    If Google is that callous and arrogant about their OHA partners being expendable, than mark my words it will come back to haunt them one day. And this is Androids biggest problem. The OHA is not a partnership with Google. The OHA are just stooges for Google doing all the heavy lifting and dirty work while Google sits back, laughs, and counts the money.
    Google doesn't need to give incentives. Manufacturers right now have 3 options:
    1. go with Android and its great app ecoystem that runs acceptable on any hardware
    2. go with Windows phone 8 and it mediocre app ecosystem that runs great on most hardware
    3. build their own OS with no ecosystem

    BB tried option 3 and didn't find much success. There is no reason that anyone else would hope for a better fate. Being free is what made Android so valuable to OEMs.
    12-29-14 02:52 PM
  11. Ment's Avatar
    Huawei chooses option 1:

    Nobody made any money in Windows Phone
    "We didn't make any money in Windows Phone," Huawei head of international media affairs Joe Kelly told the Seattle Times in a recent interview. "Nobody made any money in Windows Phone."

    This isn't the first time Huawei has had harsh words for Redmond's mobile OS. Earlier this year, the Chinese firm canceled its plans to develop new Windows Phone devices, saying that even with deep discounts from Microsoft, working with the platform just wasn't worth the expense.

    "The biggest problem is that Windows is not easy to develop independently on this platform," Huawei marketeer Shao Yang told El Reg in September. "R&D costs for Windows are quite high relative to the cost of sales
    The R/D for sales aspect is what makes a change in platform prohibitive that of course affects BB the same way.
    12-29-14 03:05 PM
  12. Troy Tiscareno's Avatar
    If Google is that callous and arrogant about their OHA partners being expendable, than mark my words it will come back to haunt them one day. And this is Androids biggest problem. The OHA is not a partnership with Google. The OHA are just stooges for Google doing all the heavy lifting and dirty work while Google sits back, laughs, and counts the money.
    It's not callous and arrogant; it's simply how it is. BB is no different. BB was using Jabil Circuit and Quanta Computer to manufacturer BB devices. When BB's production numbers dropped below a certain point, BB couldn't afford to keep their contracts with them, and so the cut their ties and made a deal with Foxconn instead. It's exactly the same thing: business. It happens all the time all over the world: products come and go, new techniques and technologies disrupt business, and that means some businesses succeed and others fail and die.

    In the late 80s and early 90s, by far, the two biggest names in PCs were IBM and Compaq. They were huge juggernauts, with tens of thousands of employees, huge infrastructure worth billions, etc. IBM exited the PC business around 2000, and Compaq was bought out by HP and effectively no longer exists. Just because you were at the top of the heap at one point does not guarantee you a permanent spot there, or even a spot on the "playing field." Atari was once the king of video games, and so was Nintendo. Things change, and companies that can't adapt, or can't adapt well enough/fast enough, will be left behind.

    If you think that is callous and arrogant, then you have no business being in business.
    anon1727506 and Bbnivende like this.
    12-29-14 03:06 PM
  13. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    It's not callous and arrogant; it's simply how it is. BB is no different. BB was using Jabil Circuit and Quanta Computer to manufacturer BB devices. When BB's production numbers dropped below a certain point, BB couldn't afford to keep their contracts with them, and so the cut their ties and made a deal with Foxconn instead. It's exactly the same thing: business. It happens all the time all over the world: products come and go, new techniques and technologies disrupt business, and that means some businesses succeed and others fail and die.

    In the late 80s and early 90s, by far, the two biggest names in PCs were IBM and Compaq. They were huge juggernauts, with tens of thousands of employees, huge infrastructure worth billions, etc. IBM exited the PC business around 2000, and Compaq was bought out by HP and effectively no longer exists. Just because you were at the top of the heap at one point does not guarantee you a permanent spot there, or even a spot on the "playing field." Atari was once the king of video games, and so was Nintendo. Things change, and companies that can't adapt, or can't adapt well enough/fast enough, will be left behind.

    If you think that is callous and arrogant, then you have no business being in business.
    Business is business, no disagreement there. But Google needs to treat there partners well. The Android-OEM relationship is mutually beneficial for both sides. Google isn't exactly doing Samsung any favours and vice versa.

    RE the bolded part, agreed, which is why Google needs to be very careful if they want to remain on top.
    12-29-14 03:12 PM
  14. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    Google doesn't need to give incentives. Manufacturers right now have 3 options:
    1. go with Android and its great app ecoystem that runs acceptable on any hardware
    2. go with Windows phone 8 and it mediocre app ecosystem that runs great on most hardware
    3. build their own OS with no ecosystem

    BB tried option 3 and didn't find much success. There is no reason that anyone else would hope for a better fate. Being free is what made Android so valuable to OEMs.
    Or option #4, get out of the smartphone HW business entirely. Not saying it would be the right option, but it is there for the taking assuming options 1-3 are all money losers.
    Soulstream likes this.
    12-29-14 03:13 PM
  15. TGR1's Avatar
    Last I checked, they gave them no incentive and probably never will. My argument is simple and the same one Android fans come her and make about BlackBerry. If there is no money to be made selling HW, why would an Android OEM stay in that business? I get it, if Samsung leaves then someone else will come in and take over. I don't disagree with this. I will add, what if the other OS's do offer incentives to manufacturers to build their phones, making Android less appealing? Not probable at this point in time, but who says it couldn't happen one day?

    If Google is that callous and arrogant about their OHA partners being expendable, than mark my words it will come back to haunt them one day. And this is Androids biggest problem. The OHA is not a partnership with Google. The OHA are just stooges for Google doing all the heavy lifting and dirty work while Google sits back, laughs, and counts the money.
    Well, yes. Good for Google, no? And let's be honest, even if Google indemnified Samsung up to the wazoo, paid for all the MS patents, and gave them ponies for every employee Samsung would happily turn on Google on a dime if doing so served them better. That's just business. On both sides.

    No one is putting an icepick in anyone's brains to force them to join the OHA.
    12-29-14 03:16 PM
  16. Soulstream's Avatar
    Or option #4, get out of the smartphone HW business entirely. Not saying it would be the right option, but it is there for the taking assuming options 1-3 are all money losers.
    What I meant were solutions for manufacturers that want to go into the smartphone market.
    LuvULongTime likes this.
    12-29-14 03:18 PM
  17. twiggyrj's Avatar
    If there was this feeling from manufacturers to leave the OHA then wouldn't WP get much more interest from OEM's? Or BlackBerry would of had solid interest in parties to license BB10 when they was looking for licensees?
    What I am saying is that if there was there are other options and yet they haven't received nothing more then a shrug of the shoulder's. There is every possibility they will be interested in the future but they need to show that these other options have a viable future.
    As a WP fan I have to agree with others and say Microsoft is on the way to that but still hasn't shown it yet with 4 years on the market, BB10 has been on for 2 and is a much worse position than WP.
    Sent from my Luminous Lime Green Lumia 930
    12-30-14 01:52 PM
  18. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    If there was this feeling from manufacturers to leave the OHA then wouldn't WP get much more interest from OEM's? Or BlackBerry would of had solid interest in parties to license BB10 when they was looking for licensees?
    What I am saying is that if there was there are other options and yet they haven't received nothing more then a shrug of the shoulder's. There is every possibility they will be interested in the future but they need to show that these other options have a viable future.
    As a WP fan I have to agree with others and say Microsoft is on the way to that but still hasn't shown it yet with 4 years on the market, BB10 has been on for 2 and is a much worse position than WP.
    Sent from my Luminous Lime Green Lumia 930
    That's what I'd assume. I would think WP would be the next option.

    In fact, it already is, in many respects.
    12-30-14 03:46 PM
  19. twiggyrj's Avatar
    That's what I'd assume. I would think WP would be the next option.

    In fact, it already is, in many respects.

    It is but its more of a hobby business for OEM's the only serious release of a non Lumia WP's are from HTC and they competed well at first with the 8X and 8S but that was two years ago and they have only just released the HTC One M8 and even that is limited to USA only.

    There are options but OEMs don't see them as serious alternatives and that can be even more damaging for them. Would anyone take it seriously if even OEMs who are in it to make money just ignore it or just low effort attempts and just leave it there, little to no marketing and poor after sales support?
    12-30-14 03:54 PM
  20. birdman_38's Avatar
    That's what I'd assume. I would think WP would be the next option.

    In fact, it already is, in many respects.
    Any OHA member can release a Windows phone as it doesn't contain Android...yet.
    12-30-14 03:56 PM
  21. anon1727506's Avatar
    Bottom line... BlackBerry doesn't have anything Huawei or any other OEM needs right now. And certainly not a the price that BlackBerry would need to ask for BB10 licensing. They could turn to several other irrelevant mobile operating system that are on the market today and get just as much for less money.

    Android may one day be toppled, but it will most likely be by some new technology they can't replicate, than by some other smartphone OS.


    But then again, if you could buy the whole company and get all those valuable patents... and the OS for free.
    12-30-14 04:05 PM
  22. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    Any OHA member can release a Windows phone as it doesn't contain Android...yet.
    Correct. I'm interested in picking up an HTC WP M8.

    I'm surprised more OEMs don't take that route (i.e using essentially the same hardware across OSes).
    twiggyrj likes this.
    12-30-14 04:35 PM
  23. twiggyrj's Avatar
    Bottom line... BlackBerry doesn't have anything Huawei or any other OEM needs right now. And certainly not a the price that BlackBerry would need to ask for BB10 licensing. They could turn to several other irrelevant mobile operating system that are on the market today and get just as much for less money.

    Android may one day be toppled, but it will most likely be by some new technology they can't replicate, than by some other smartphone OS.


    But then again, if you could buy the whole company and get all those valuable patents... and the OS for free.

    Huawei dropped WP saying that it was too costly and this is the case for them even with Windows being free to OEMs with devices under 9 inches
    12-30-14 04:38 PM
  24. Tre Lawrence's Avatar
    It is but its more of a hobby business for OEM's
    I tend to agree. The WP offerings from HTC and Samsung feel speculative at best; but I get where the OEMs are coming from.
    12-30-14 04:41 PM
  25. twiggyrj's Avatar
    I tend to agree. The WP offerings from HTC and Samsung feel speculative at best; but I get where the OEMs are coming from.

    Yeah which is why I think it's doubtful at best to think the members of the OHA will leave and go to BlackBerry or adopt another platform en masse anytime soon. I would love it if they did and created wonderful WP's but it won't happen until they see the other options as financially viable.
    12-30-14 04:59 PM
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