[app_Developer]

This "fanatical user base" did not allow Apple to remain profitable in the late 90s.

In fact that same fanatical base from the 90's was unhappy about the shift in attention to the iPod and then iPhone/iPad. They were unhappy about the move to Intel. And the truly rabid among them were even unhappy about the transition to OS X (NeXTSTEP).

I don't understand fanaticism about corporations anyway. If HP makes a tablet that is better for my personal use than the iPad, or if Nokia makes a phone that I prefer to the iPhone, then it's so easy to transfer my stuff.

Why on earth do I care which company's logo is on my phone?

But anyway, having said that, I don't think fans make that much difference and I think if anything they tend to put pressure on the company to not change with the times.

[Superfly_FR]

[...]But anyway, having said that, I don't think fans make that much difference and I think if anything they tend to put pressure on the company to not change with the times.

Well, if "fans" are also shareholders board members, it can change a lot of things (IMHO)

[app_Developer]

Well, if "fans" are also shareholders, it can change a lot of things (IMHO)

Not to me. As an investor, I don't wish that the companies in my portfolio will do well. It's the other way around, I invest in the companies I already think will do well. If I'm in the wrong company, in a couple of clicks I can correct that mistake and move on to the better one. That money is for my children, the only emotional attachment there is to them. I couldn't care less which company makes the big hits for them.

Now it's different for guys with unexercised option packages. But my friends at Google and Apple who do have these, are *still* not fanboys the way some of their customers are. It's strange to me.

[kill_9]

Research In Motion has to deliver flawlessly this month on every product and service, especially all the newly announced products and services. While the quarterly revenue and profit of this company remain strong and are increasing year-over-year this is no time to fumble or stumble. A new competitor in the secure mobile messaging arena could come over the horizon at any time but it would be difficult to compete with Research In Motion at the moment considering they provide hardware, software, and infrastructure to support secure mobile messaging. That said, history is replete with fallen empires. February is the Waterloo moment for Research In Motion - will Thorsten Heins lead the Blackberry Nation into the future or plunge us headlong into defeat and despair? February 21, 2012 will be a day reckoning anyway you look at it. CHARGE!

[kill_9]

Not to me. As an investor, I don't wish that the companies in my portfolio will do well. It's the other way around, I invest in the companies I already think will do well. If I'm in the wrong company, in a couple of clicks I can correct that mistake and move on to the better one. That money is for my children, the only emotional attachment there is to them. I couldn't care less which company makes the big hits for them.

Research In Motion does not pay dividends thereby is not a sound long-term investment. The share prices have plunged in case you have been sleeping for the past year.

[kill_9]

Why on earth do I care which company's logo is on my phone?

Companies spend billions of dollars annually to build their brand including the logo in an effort to grow market share while retaining their existing customers. Do you think Coca-Cola does not care about its logo? Do you think Research In Motion cares not about its iconic BlackBerry logo?

[bitek]

Golly, I didn't say it was OVER! Just that they are tracking perfectly with the path failed companies take.

For all we know, Thor was kidding when he made his "Stay the course!" speech and he's going to make radical changes.

I do not get it how Rim follows Novel path and yet Rim has added more customers world wide last year plus OS10 is RADICAL departure from current OS. .

[bitek]

DOS was gone in Windows 2000. All versions of Windows since 2000 are NT based.

Windows 2000 was designed for enterprise and many programs designed for Windows 95 would not work on it. Vista unified consumer and enterprise windows into one. Long time again...

[app_Developer]

Companies spend billions of dollars annually to build their brand including the logo in an effort to grow market share while retaining their existing customers. Do you think Coca-Cola does not care about its logo? Do you think Research In Motion cares not about its iconic BlackBerry logo?

Of course I understand why the corporation and its management care. I'm just questioning why consumers feel the need to have this familial loyalty to one corporation over another.

Anyway, this is OT.

[Laura Knotek]

In fact that same fanatical base from the 90's was unhappy about the shift in attention to the iPod and then iPhone/iPad. They were unhappy about the move to Intel. And the truly rabid among them were even unhappy about the transition to OS X (NeXTSTEP).

I don't understand fanaticism about corporations anyway. If HP makes a tablet that is better for my personal use than the iPad, or if Nokia makes a phone that I prefer to the iPhone, then it's so easy to transfer my stuff.

Why on earth do I care which company's logo is on my phone?

But anyway, having said that, I don't think fans make that much difference and I think if anything they tend to put pressure on the company to not change with the times.

I don't care what logo is on my phone either. I've used Nokia before I used BlackBerry, and I wouldn't hesitate to use Nokia again.

[Laura Knotek]

Companies spend billions of dollars annually to build their brand including the logo in an effort to grow market share while retaining their existing customers. Do you think Coca-Cola does not care about its logo? Do you think Research In Motion cares not about its iconic BlackBerry logo?

The point is most people aren't rabid fanboys/fangirls who are more devoted to their phones than to their spouses. I'm not married to any brand, whether phone, soda or any other product. If I want to use a product I will, no matter what brand it is.

[palmless]

I do not get it how Rim follows Novel path and yet Rim has added more customers world wide last year plus OS10 is RADICAL departure from current OS. .

Right, you'd have to read the history if you didn't live it. Novell added seats, added servers, but average selling price was plummeting (sound familiar?) because they were losing all the high-paying customers.

They were gaining customers, at about 1/10th the rate the market was growing. They were losing market share. (Sound familiar).

They bet it all on a radical new OS. Which was late, lame, "Me too", etc. It managed to alienate the fanatical followers because it was different. Developers were confused... support NetWare, with a large, aging installed base, or the new stuff (can't recall, Intranetware 5 I think) which was leading edge but had no installed base. (Sound familiar?) Most developers decided to do neither.

Novell had made the Osborne mistake, but not to the degree RIMM has done it. That kills developer and customer interest with one move.

That's why the quarterly results coming up are expected to be SO bad, expected to make the last two awful quarters look like the good old days. Some are projecting below 10m phones, and we know the ARPU's are plummeting.

[bitek]

Right, you'd have to read the history if you didn't live it. Novell added seats, added servers, but average selling price was plummeting (sound familiar?) because they were losing all the high-paying customers.

They were gaining customers, at about 1/10th the rate the market was growing. They were losing market share. (Sound familiar).

They bet it all on a radical new OS. Which was late, lame, "Me too", etc. It managed to alienate the fanatical followers because it was different. Developers were confused... support NetWare, with a large, aging installed base, or the new stuff (can't recall, Intranetware 5 I think) which was leading edge but had no installed base. (Sound familiar?) Most developers decided to do neither.

Novell had made the Osborne mistake, but not to the degree RIMM has done it. That kills developer and customer interest with one move.

That's why the quarterly results coming up are expected to be SO bad, expected to make the last two awful quarters look like the good old days. Some are projecting below 10m phones, and we know the ARPU's are plummeting.

i got one bb for my wife so i hope this will help a little bit with quarterly earnings

[Superfly_FR]

Not to me. As an investor, I don't wish that the companies in my portfolio will do well. It's the other way around, I invest in the companies I already think will do well. If I'm in the wrong company, in a couple of clicks I can correct that mistake and move on to the better one. That money is for my children, the only emotional attachment there is to them. I couldn't care less which company makes the big hits for them.

Now it's different for guys with unexercised option packages. But my friends at Google and Apple who do have these, are *still* not fanboys the way some of their customers are. It's strange to me.

I'm sorry, I meant board member (and, from there, share holder), and fans = totally confident.
damm dammm damm ...

[[email protected]]

This "fanatical user base" did not allow Apple to remain profitable in the late 90s.

Agreed! As a former PALM fanatic, I can persoanlly answer the following question:

What will device loyalists do when the smart phones they've come to know and love are gone?

The device that composed 1 million+ memos... That sent their first Tweet or "Wall" posting. The device that confirmed or canceled appointments... That they typed their first resignation letter on and forwarded to all their friends...

What will they do when that "family member" rides off into the sunset...?




They go get something else.... And start all over again...


Cheers!

[hurds]

I just hope bb fanatics don't become like apple fanatics. I don't go on apple sites but I find it odd how many app fans come on a bb site and prophecise about how bad they think RIM is. I don't think you gain any perspective in comparng any of these companies because they are so different. I'll agree, RIM is not how apple was. They are a lot better off right now.

Just notice I wrote app instead of apple the first time, but I'll leave it

[Vijik]

RIM CEO has not gone to competitors crying and asking to give him money to pay employee salaries (Like Apple CEO did).
Even if RIM end up doing that, it is still hope for RIM like it was hope for Apple.

[Economist101]

I do not get it how Rim follows Novel path and yet Rim has added more customers world wide last year plus OS10 is RADICAL departure from current OS. .

RIM is adding customers, but their market share slice is decreasing, leading to reduced developer interest. Adding customers is good, but you need to add enough that developers, accessory makers and others continue to view your market as worth their investment. You have to maintain enough market share to keep developers interested; "subscriber" count isn't going to do it without significant quarterly sales.

[Skier1960]

Well in a way you have to. You have to look at those companies and ask why they failed and how others have succeeded. Take the good leave the bad...

[tack]

It is valid to compare RIM to other tech companies, maybe more so than to Apple in the late 90's. None are exactly the same, but there are similarities.

RIM is healthy still. Paying dividends has nothing to do with whether the company is healthy or a good investment. Companies mostly try to avoid paying them anyway. Once you start you almost cannot quit and they take away from cash to reinvest.

Things are not turning in their direction however. Like Novell they are lowering prices and profits to stay on high on growth and units. That $1.8billion in cash could be eaten in 6 months if cash flow goes neutral. It is not a sinking ship but not a 100% protected either. They need to get public opinion back in their favor, no matter what the highly loyal fan base thinks.

[Mystic205]

RIM built a castle on the foundations of "security" "BBM" and "enterprise", then went off to win the consumer market... slowly to realise that those three cornerstone foundations are not rock but are made of shifting sands...

So, the CORE of RIM market advantage has totally disappeared.. along with its market share, steadily reversing for the last 3 years...

Up to and including the Playbook, RIM has been completely out of touch with what consumers want.. content content content.

[addicted44]

DOS was gone in Windows 2000. All versions of Windows since 2000 are NT based.

Windows ME was DOS based.

Windows XP was the first consumer Windows OS that was NT based.

Regarding comparisons with other companies, the best comparison is with Palm. Same industry, same competitors, same fanatic fan base.

Fortunately, RIM can learn from the Palm experience. Lets see if they actually do.

[addicted44]

RIM CEO has not gone to competitors crying to give him money to pay employee salaries (Like Apple CEO did).
Even if RIM end up doing that, it is still hope for RIM like it was hope for Apple.

1) Apple did not need the money. It was a PR thing. MS cashed in their shares for more money within a year. The ONLY important thing about that whole exchange was that MS promised to continue developing Office for Mac, which in turn reassured the world that MS believed the Mac platform would survive.

2) I wonder who you think is better off. The CEO who is too proud to go ask for a competitor's help, and so his company fails, and goes bankrupt? Or the CEO who is willing to crush his ego so as to ask a hated competitor's help in ensuring his company survives, and then spends the next decade making his company the biggest in the world. Hmm...tough question.

[Vijik]

One difference between RIM and Apple is that, when RIM is at its worst, it still beats its competitors (at their best) in many countires.

When Apple was at its worst, nobody bought their s h I t, not even in US, let alone rest of the world.

[Vijik]

@Addicted44,

When Gates gave Jobs money so that he could pay Apple Employees, jobs got tears in his eyes.Apple was just 2 months away from going bankrupt.
Jobs managed to turn the company around from that embarresing, low life situation.
RIM doesn't look like to have been that much in trouble and embarresed as Apple was. So its easier for RIM to turn the tide than it was for Apple. If Apple did it, RIM can definitely do it.

2- The point is, RIM CEO doesn't need to beg for money. RIM is still making good money! Apple CEO had to beg for money!