Let's estimate Z10 sales in Canada
This should be a fun exercise. I do this because I am an investor and because analysts are too stupid to figure out crap like this in a matter of 30 minutes.
Keep this in mind though:
"It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong" - Warren Buffet
The bad thing is that I am trying to confirm my bias. I figure that 100,000 or so were sold based on the "several hundred thousand" sold in the UK. Canada has about half the population of the UK so I am guessing low 100,000s sold.
Now onto the guesstimate.
What I know. Rogers has a 35% market share in Canada. From people that were in stores, it sounds like stores had 50-150 units available for both first come/first served and pre-order. From reading, I think best guess is 80 though. Let's use that as a starting point.
There is one question left. How many stores are there?
Simple formula:
units sold = (rogersStores * sales)/market share
units sold = (rogersStores * 80)/0.35
units sold = rogersStores * 228 ~= stores * 230
or:
units sold = 230 * rogersStores
430 retail stores would land us at 100,000 sold. I think I saw this number on rogers web site:
http://www.rogers.com/web/Careers.po...l=C_WR&_page=5
So:
units sold = 230 * rogersStores = 230*450 = 103,500 units sold
So, how did I do?
Please provide feedback. For example, I don't know if any units were sent to people through the mail via pre-order. Let me know! Was my 80 per store count about right?
Re: Let's estimate Z10 sales in Canada