04-06-12 09:36 PM
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  1. swyost's Avatar
    Yes, about that... RIM currently carries a market cap of around $6bln. There's something ridiculously wrong with that, considering that they have upwards of $2bln CASH and continue to make hundreds of millions of dollars a month.

    They're WAY below even book value. Do we have any idea what's up with that?
    What is up with that is that they have been a poorly managed company for several years which has made major missteps. They are also losing their market position in the US and have seen a sharp drop off in revenues, at the same time as they are selling some products at a loss and others at just about cost. All of that means their stock price is very low and they are valued accordingly. To put it another way, they are valued the way any struggling high risk company is valued.
    04-04-12 07:06 PM
  2. pkcable's Avatar
    Unless you are certain RIM will go bankrupt the stock is a pretty good investment right now. It's super low valued below book value at this point. It almost has to go up it hardly possible it could go much lower AND when the BB10 phones and the QNX cars come out they should see a nice rise.
    04-04-12 07:08 PM
  3. Economist101's Avatar
    They also make less margin on the iPad then the iPhone. And with the increase of cost for the latest iPad even less on it. Hence you are seeing hints and whispers of the iPhone 5 in June.
    I'll tell you what. Let's have a little bet. If the next iPhone is released by June 30, 2012, I'll leave the site. If it's not, you leave. You in? You ready to put your log-in where your comments are?
    04-04-12 07:08 PM
  4. swyost's Avatar
    First of all, I have no shares of RIM and I don't have anything to do with the company. I'm just a BlackBerry user that loves the Bold 9930 and Playbook and I'm just tired of being told lies about my devices. BTW, regardless of what follows below, I'm not advocating purchasing shares of RIM (I really don't think this is the right place to make those decisions) but I am advocating continuing to enjoy their devices.

    RIM share were up after Mr. T. spoke on the conference call so needless to say CNBC got some turkey yesterday to say RIM is going bankrupt. Today the stock was up a bit and Jim dropped to the ground and said he could not find a place to draw how low RIM was going. When the Playbook was struggling last year they got some guy with assets under management of 12 million (total, yeah, he was such a titan and expert source!) as a reliable source to say that RIM was going to get out of the tablet market.

    First of all, these type of comments are having the desired impact. I have a friend that left BlackBerry and said he loved my Bold but was afraid the company would go out of business so it matters.

    How right is Jim Cramer?
    This is the former Goldman Sachs guy that said to buy Palm when Goldman was issuing new shares of Palm at 14-16 bucks. Even after they only sold 80k phones on the first week he got behind them.

    The argument goes that RIM is Nokia (at leat they have given up on the Palm comparison since it is too riduculous, even for CNBC). There are several reasons why this does not apply AT ALL.

    RIM is still growing worldwide, the fact that they are still holding on in the U.S. despite the relentless media attacks is a testament to how great they are. CNBC is hurting them but not enough to stop them.

    RIM collects about five bucks on service revenue per device, not from the consumer but from the carriers. Why, because they provide services the carriers need and the carriers are bursting at the seems for signal badwith. They are leasing tower from other companies because they can't get enough bandwith so the argument that they will discontinue paying RIM is about as right as Jim's call on Palm.

    RIM is NOT giving up on the Playbook. They are 100% committed to it because it is the prep/launch pad for their next generation phones. Besides, BB10 is not just a device but a platform and the way the Playbook and the BlackBerry phones work together is enviable. Who else has Bridge and remote? So, another lie.

    They say RIM is going to lose carrier support and that is another lie. Why? because the carriers have seen how much Apple has come to dominate and dictate to them what they must sell their devices for, what to put in them, etc. Just look at Sprint. The stock got cut in half because the made a stupid deal with Apple that actually is hurting them. Carriers will want more than two platforms and carrier CEO's have stated they want RIM because of loyal fans that will always want BlackBerries (such as myself) but also because they don't want to be enslaved to one or two ecosystems or devices.

    So as Jim likes to say, here is the bottom line:
    F U Jim Crammer! This time next year, RIM shares will be about twice as much as they are today and that would still leave them cheap. RIM is closer to Apple in 2003 that it is to Palm or Nokia. Everyone said Apple was dead and Steve Jobs came back, a new CEO/returning CEO, and look at it now. Mr. T. should do something similar in his own way.

    Some Reasons why RIM Rocks:
    1. Best security. That is why Mi6 and other agencies will always use them.
    2. Best keyboards in the universe. Droid is improving but not there yet. Apple doesnt have any.
    3. People say RIM is not innovating. Maybe, if you define innovation as media but look at all they have rolled out in the last 12 months then take a look at the 4S and iPad3. Who is really innovating faster? BB Traffice with organic voice navigation, BB Music (awesome), BB Bridge, BB Travel, BB Protect. Also in enterprise BlackBerry Mobile Fusion, BlackBerry balance, etc. I'm with RIM.
    4. BES/BESX. Although bring your own device is taking hold in corporate america CIO's are still picking RIM first. RIM may not dominate but will always be strong in enterprise.
    5. RIM has an out for older devices, what they don't sell in the U.S. can be sent and sold to countries that can't get enough of them.

    Here is the good news:
    All this smear campaign will end by the end of this year. The media dirtbags like CNBC will not be able to kill RIM before the BB10 devices become available and it is clear to me, judging by the Playbook UI and complete awesomess as well as Mr. T's comments that he gets it about content and desirability, not just functionality and practicality that they will rock. At this point RIM will be very well positioned on innovation.
    Also, it is easy for the top dog to fall from its pedestal just from the law of numbers. At some point a device that everyone has can't be cool but common so there is an oppening for RIM.
    I have gotten 21 people (11 this year) to get Playbooks and after listening to Jim (the jackass) Crammer I'm going to make it at least 100. I started a friendly constest ( http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...ontest-708204/ ) to see how many playbooks we could help our friends get and twelve people jumped onboard. We have moved over sixty. Several more have not signed up for the contest but left comments on how many of their friends got Playbooks and love them. Even if you don't jump in the contest, show your friends and help them get an awesome tablet and save 300 bucks. Don't let these jerks scare you. RIM is awesome and you don't need to wait for BB10 to see that. Just look at the Bold 9930 and the Playbook.

    CrackBerry Nation is going to prove you wrong again Jim Crammer! You bet I'm going to mark my calendar for one year from now and I'm going to love proving you wrong Goldman boy.

    100% BlackBerry.
    Take a deep breath and relax. It is just a technology company and he is a market analyst. Your world will not end because someone does not like RIM. In any case there are very few that do like RIM as an investment at this point - he just happens to be on TV. I would suggest taking a walk outside and looking at the world around you. There is a big world worthy of your attention. Is a tech company really worth the emotional investment conveyed by your treatise?
    torches likes this.
    04-04-12 07:12 PM
  5. swyost's Avatar
    TL;DR.

    Suffice it to say that whether or not BalckBerry can survive the next twenty-four months is very much an open question. That's why Thorsten is looking for someone to buy the company. It's probably the only way BlackBerry can carry on. The situation is dire. Selling curves in India and Indonesia at cost and losing cash on every playbook sold is not a plan for long-term success.
    So do you know the CEO personally? Last I checked, first name basis still requires someone to actually know a person. Personally, I find the tendency to refer to the guy by his first name to be either disrespectful or rather creepy (in a stalker/obsessed fan sort of way)....
    04-04-12 07:16 PM
  6. alnamvet68's Avatar
    Unless you are certain RIM will go bankrupt the stock is a pretty good investment right now. It's super low valued below book value at this point. It almost has to go up it hardly possible it could go much lower AND when the BB10 phones and the QNX cars come out they should see a nice rise.
    That's right, and when my 3500 shares redeem themselves, I will be buying and serving crow to everybody on CB who deserves it....all you can eat, and doggy bags will be provided.
    maddie1128 likes this.
    04-04-12 07:16 PM
  7. MartyMcfly's Avatar
    Yes, about that... RIM currently carries a market cap of around $6bln. There's something ridiculously wrong with that, considering that they have upwards of $2bln CASH and continue to make hundreds of millions of dollars a month.

    They're WAY below even book value. Do we have any idea what's up with that?
    I never said anything about Rimm's market cap...Rimm's stock has been on a steady decline the past year...The op shouldn't be surprised about the ridicule the stock is getting.


    Sent from my IPhone 4s using Tapatalk
    04-04-12 08:08 PM
  8. north66's Avatar
    I'm still trying to recall the last time Kramer was right about anything.
    04-04-12 09:07 PM
  9. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    I never said anything about Rimm's market cap...Rimm's stock has been on a steady decline the past year...The op shouldn't be surprised about the ridicule the stock is getting.


    Sent from my IPhone 4s using Tapatalk
    Umm... Since Market Cap = Share Price x Outstanding Shares, there's a direct relationship between share price and market cap, sure.

    If the company's assets are worth, say, $12 bln, and the company has $2 bln cash, and the company's intellectual properties are worth maybe $2bln (a conservative estimate), that actually works out to about $25 a share.
    04-04-12 09:31 PM
  10. MartyMcfly's Avatar
    Umm... Since Market Cap = Share Price x Outstanding Shares, there's a direct relationship between share price and market cap, sure.

    If the company's assets are worth, say, $12 bln, and the company has $2 bln cash, and the company's intellectual properties are worth maybe $2bln (a conservative estimate), that actually works out to about $25 a share.
    Lol @ you breaking down market cap...I graduated from business school 4 years ago (gosh I feel old)...I was saying that the Op shouldn't feel surprised to read negative articles/hear negative comments on rim's stock price, being that it's been toast for awhile now...


    Sent from my IPhone 4s using Tapatalk
    04-04-12 09:41 PM
  11. dave1701's Avatar
    Only Kramer I know [YT]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkpvON6IpNs[/YT]
    04-04-12 09:47 PM
  12. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Lol @ you breaking down market cap...I graduated from business school 4 years ago (gosh I feel old)...I was saying that the Op shouldn't feel surprised to read negative articles/hear negative comments on rim's stock price, being that it's been toast for awhile now...


    Sent from my IPhone 4s using Tapatalk
    But the question remains, why is the company trading at, what, 2x earnings? 3? How many profitable, debt-free companies are trading at that low a multiple, Mr. Business School grad?
    04-04-12 10:45 PM
  13. addicted44's Avatar
    But the question remains, why is the company trading at, what, 2x earnings? 3? How many profitable, debt-free companies are trading at that low a multiple, Mr. Business School grad?
    Because the earnings are declining. The asset value is just paper value. Converting them to cash is extremely difficult. If RIM continues to lose money, the paper value of those assets will also decline quickly. (note:rim lost money last quarter)

    Even if RIM decides to shut down today, and convert everything to cash, it will be years before operations are closed and they would have to pay a lot of money to various suppliers, buyers, employees just to shut down. As well as face a ton of legal costs, etc.

    Bottom line is that book value is almost meaningless.
    04-05-12 01:46 AM
  14. torches's Avatar
    Because the earnings are declining. The asset value is just paper value. Converting them to cash is extremely difficult. If RIM continues to lose money, the paper value of those assets will also decline quickly. (note:rim lost money last quarter)

    Even if RIM decides to shut down today, and convert everything to cash, it will be years before operations are closed and they would have to pay a lot of money to various suppliers, buyers, employees just to shut down. As well as face a ton of legal costs, etc.

    Bottom line is that book value is almost meaningless.
    Spot on. Also, assets are rarely sold off at accounting "book value" in a liquidation event. A company is bought for its future earning power, not PAST; future earning power is a function of past earning power, but also of many other variables. This also explains why the NTM (next twelve months) P/E is so low (whether it is TOO low, despite declining earnings, I do not know. I am just listing the potential explanations).

    Would like to quickly mention RIM was only in the red for Q4 due to non-recurring events/items, but nonetheless the point holds: if RIM did well, its earnings should still be in the black.

    P.S. the tech industry has always been notoriously more volatile & extreme than other sectors (look up the industry beta...), so it isn't THAT be surprising RIM is trading at such lows, but it is indeed rare to see a company like RIM trading like it is today.

    One thing I would like to express is the frustration from comparisons of AAPL vs RIM stock charts over the past few years...
    EVERYONE gets it, RIM has fallen far behind. No one is disputing Apple has been a remarkable story. It's about whether RIM can regain some of its former glory.
    Last edited by torches; 04-05-12 at 02:08 AM.
    04-05-12 01:59 AM
  15. Osh's Avatar
    Guerllamo7 - great post.

    I've been selling mobile devices for the past 8 years here in the UK and sell 8 out of 10 devices are BlackBerry.

    Recently had a major international client tell me that they were intending to move to iPhone after using BlackBerry BES for the past 5 years. The rialed the iPhone4S and hated it; they then trialled the Nokia Lumia800 and thought it was nothing short of terrible.

    They have just renewed their mobile agreement with O2 here in the UK for another 2 years and with BlackBerry. Why - because we provided trial 9790 and 9900 devices which they thought were awesome.

    I'm just about to place 4 seed PlayBook devices with them and three other customers and, being a PlayBook fan myself, I know they are going to love them.

    Gotta say I am fed up to the back teeth of so called 'experts' slagging BlackBerry off when they know little or nothing about the market....

    Rock on RiM.


    Osh
    04-05-12 02:24 AM
  16. addicted44's Avatar
    Spot on. Also, assets are rarely sold off at accounting "book value" in a liquidation event. A company is bought for its future earning power, not PAST; future earning power is a function of past earning power, but also of many other variables. This also explains why the NTM (next twelve months) P/E is so low (whether it is TOO low, despite declining earnings, I do not know. I am just listing the potential explanations).

    Would like to quickly mention RIM was only in the red for Q4 due to non-recurring events/items, but nonetheless the point holds: if RIM did well, its earnings should still be in the black.

    P.S. the tech industry has always been notoriously more volatile & extreme than other sectors (look up the industry beta...), so it isn't THAT be surprising RIM is trading at such lows, but it is indeed rare to see a company like RIM trading like it is today.

    One thing I would like to express is the frustration from comparisons of AAPL vs RIM stock charts over the past few years...
    EVERYONE gets it, RIM has fallen far behind. No one is disputing Apple has been a remarkable story. It's about whether RIM can regain some of its former glory.
    Agreed. The only question in the market's mind right now is whether RIM can turn around their earnings decline. Any comparison with AAPL (both by supporters and detractors) is completely ludicrous.

    Regarding the loss, agreed that cash flow in the quarter was positive, and that the loss was due to adjustments. However, it was partially due to inventory write offs, which once again reinforces the negative RIMM story, ie, management is not on top of things. While I disagree with market sentiment, because I honestly think Heins has brought about a lot of improvement, the uncertainty caused by the changes is itself driving down RIMM. The market will only acknowledge the benefits of those improvements once it sees the results in the financials. I would love to invest in RIMM based solely off that, but my fear is that any such improvements will be dwarfed by the negative sentiment caused by the inevitable drop in revenues and profits in the quarters leading to BB10.
    04-05-12 05:22 AM
  17. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Agreed. The only question in the market's mind right now is whether RIM can turn around their earnings decline. Any comparison with AAPL (both by supporters and detractors) is completely ludicrous.

    Regarding the loss, agreed that cash flow in the quarter was positive, and that the loss was due to adjustments. However, it was partially due to inventory write offs, which once again reinforces the negative RIMM story, ie, management is not on top of things. While I disagree with market sentiment, because I honestly think Heins has brought about a lot of improvement, the uncertainty caused by the changes is itself driving down RIMM. The market will only acknowledge the benefits of those improvements once it sees the results in the financials. I would love to invest in RIMM based solely off that, but my fear is that any such improvements will be dwarfed by the negative sentiment caused by the inevitable drop in revenues and profits in the quarters leading to BB10.
    And that begs the question, how big a role is sentiment playing in this? What does RIM have to do to turn that around?
    04-06-12 09:36 PM
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