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I don't have any high, low or under/over expectations for blackberry 10. I just want to see that it wows me.
Iphone doesn't wow me and I don't need all those apps. I don't even need skype or netflix. I know that microsoft isn't really going to give skype (since they bought them) to blackberry 10. Same for netflix, since I am beginning to think they don't give a rat's behind.09-17-12 12:19 AM - I think 2k units is entirely possible for an initial launch of BB10 phones. But (not that anyone is asking me), I'd like to see RIM take some, but not all, pages from Apple's script.
I think a big, splashy, meticulously orchestrated launch "event" would be good.
It would be even better if the phones went on sale immediately afterwards, without even the two-week delay traditional for Apple.
That would build confidence in RIM's ability to deliver. It would also take a lot of people by surprise, and provide cover for the (inevitable) failure of BB10 phones to reach iPhone-like numbers.
RIM can't be like Apple, at least not now. I think in their launch even they should send a message that "BB10 isn't for everyone, only for an elite few." Take an inevitable reality, and embrace it.
They should charge more... $399, $499, and $599 (on-contract).
This may sound crazy, but here is my thinking: Many people who are dying for a BB10 phone will pay it. Businesses that are committed to BB will pay it, since the up-front cost is inconsequential compared to long term cost-of-ownership.
Higher selling prices will keep pressure off (a) their production, (b) their margins, and (c) expectations. A $400 phone can't be expected to sell as fast as a $200 iPhone 5, and if RIM says up front "We charge more because our customers are serious professionals", then a longer, shallower adoption curve will have a narrative to explain it (as opposed to the narrative, "See, we knew it would crash", which the media is all ready to embrace, given any chance).
Also, the thing that should make Heins and everyone at RIM stay up at night in terror is not the iPhone 5. It is, as Om Malik pointed out, the free iPhone 4. The iPhone 4 looks like the iPhone 4S, and thus carries the same power as a status-symbol as the 4S.
If RIM makes a big deal about a $400 BB10 phone, and if BB10 phones are really good, then RIM will be able to compete higher in the market and won't be destroyed by the free iPhone 4 (and whatever huge Android phones carriers are pimping as freebies with contracts).
I keep saying this, but I really believe it: RIM can be successful, but I think they need to accept a much smaller market and a very shallow adoption curve. That means satisfying their fanbase and protecting their margins, even at the expense of market-share.
BB10 won't have a huge ecosystem to start. That is a given. The choice is to grow a quality ecosystem over the next few years, or try to scrape together a mess of low-quality apps (Hungarian fairy-tale ebooks, anyone?) really quickly. Aiming at consumers of free-with-contract phones won't result in app-buying users, and won't result in a good ecosystm. Being patient, aiming upmarket, and attracting people with real software needs--medical professionals, businesspeople, researchers, diplomats, etc.--with real money to spend, might attract high-quality apps (and make vertical market development worthwhile).
Of course, my own last serious entry into the world of commerce was selling chocolate bars to raise money for my middle-school, a thousand years ago, and I seem to remember needing a bailout package from my parents on that occasion, so perhaps it is wise that Heins hasn't been calling to ask my advice
09-17-12 08:51 PM - I think that would be suicide, though I see your reasoning. Yes, they could accept being a small niche player....the stockholders would form a lynch mob, though there isn't much more to lose....and the developers probably wouldn't be too pleased either.I think 2k units is entirely possible for an initial launch of BB10 phones. But (not that anyone is asking me), I'd like to see RIM take some, but not all, pages from Apple's script.
I think a big, splashy, meticulously orchestrated launch "event" would be good.
It would be even better if the phones went on sale immediately afterwards, without even the two-week delay traditional for Apple.
That would build confidence in RIM's ability to deliver. It would also take a lot of people by surprise, and provide cover for the (inevitable) failure of BB10 phones to reach iPhone-like numbers.
RIM can't be like Apple, at least not now. I think in their launch even they should send a message that "BB10 isn't for everyone, only for an elite few." Take an inevitable reality, and embrace it.
They should charge more... $399, $499, and $599 (on-contract).
This may sound crazy, but here is my thinking: Many people who are dying for a BB10 phone will pay it. Businesses that are committed to BB will pay it, since the up-front cost is inconsequential compared to long term cost-of-ownership.
Higher selling prices will keep pressure off (a) their production, (b) their margins, and (c) expectations. A $400 phone can't be expected to sell as fast as a $200 iPhone 5, and if RIM says up front "We charge more because our customers are serious professionals", then a longer, shallower adoption curve will have a narrative to explain it (as opposed to the narrative, "See, we knew it would crash", which the media is all ready to embrace, given any chance).
Also, the thing that should make Heins and everyone at RIM stay up at night in terror is not the iPhone 5. It is, as Om Malik pointed out, the free iPhone 4. The iPhone 4 looks like the iPhone 4S, and thus carries the same power as a status-symbol as the 4S.
If RIM makes a big deal about a $400 BB10 phone, and if BB10 phones are really good, then RIM will be able to compete higher in the market and won't be destroyed by the free iPhone 4 (and whatever huge Android phones carriers are pimping as freebies with contracts).
I keep saying this, but I really believe it: RIM can be successful, but I think they need to accept a much smaller market and a very shallow adoption curve. That means satisfying their fanbase and protecting their margins, even at the expense of market-share.
BB10 won't have a huge ecosystem to start. That is a given. The choice is to grow a quality ecosystem over the next few years, or try to scrape together a mess of low-quality apps (Hungarian fairy-tale ebooks, anyone?) really quickly. Aiming at consumers of free-with-contract phones won't result in app-buying users, and won't result in a good ecosystm. Being patient, aiming upmarket, and attracting people with real software needs--medical professionals, businesspeople, researchers, diplomats, etc.--with real money to spend, might attract high-quality apps (and make vertical market development worthwhile).
Of course, my own last serious entry into the world of commerce was selling chocolate bars to raise money for my middle-school, a thousand years ago, and I seem to remember needing a bailout package from my parents on that occasion, so perhaps it is wise that Heins hasn't been calling to ask my advice
I think though if they priced high as you suggest, they run the risk of getting NO market. Yes, as you say, the BB faithful who are desperate will pay for it, but the number is small....and I'm not sure there will be all that many corporations "committed" to it either...given the big changeover.
To some extent this is what Apple has been doing as Android eats up the low end market. It can certainly work, and bring big profits obviously, but you better have a product that REALLY delivers something special. Even then, as with Apple, hard to say if this is a winning strategy long-term. RIM's reputation is so tarnished now, their cachet is not just diminished, it's negative. They need to deliver a blockbuster...to get into the thick of things, or even into a successful high-end niche. It's hail-mary time now.
I think if they fall into a small high end niche, even if margins are good for the small volume, it will be seen as a stop-gap to oblivion. Numbers will continue to fall, the company will shrink more....I think it will be, if not the end of RIM, the end of RIM as it was known.Last edited by richardat; 09-17-12 at 11:20 PM.
09-17-12 11:18 PM
