01-19-12 12:41 PM
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  1. david.e.crocker@gmail.com's Avatar
    I totally agree with you, save for one small problem.

    It's RIM.

    They have yet to prove that they can be nimble and agile when it comes to development.....they have NEVER shown this ability and asking them to do this now means that you're betting on the instant replay.

    I already saw that game. RIM lost.

    So my theory is to embrace the inevitable now yet have a plan back IN the door.

    Are they giving up? Yes/No.

    Will they be abandoning their platform? Yes, they already are doing that. So the theory is to take a hit now (which at least keeps you going) and develop while you can.

    At the current rate of progress, RIM will be out of business and FULLY out of favor in the major markets.

    I am not saying become an Android handset maker ala HTC, Samsung or Motorola. I am saying be the EXCLUSIVE handset maker for Amazon.

    At this point, RIM needs to get in bed with someone. Might as well pick the one company that still needs a date and has all the toys to play with.
    MXBerry likes this.
    01-03-12 04:24 PM
  2. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    Who is the mobile market is being agile? Everyone does incremental updates to existing products. Apple had 1 breakthough product. They have been tweaking it for over 4 years now, even with the onslaught of Android products they havent particularly changed anything. Android is likely the most "nimble" platform because it has no controls over anything. But if you look at each manufacturer individually you find they dont move quickly either. RIM is taking a long time to transition, but they are also making the most massive transition in the marketplace. No one else has to worry about the backend infrastructure like they do. Heck, it took MSFT many years to go from WinMo 6 to WP7, and even a couple years to go from 7 to 8. RIM is doing this (and more) in about 18 months.
    01-04-12 09:45 AM
  3. Torres90's Avatar
    I disagree with going for Android OS.

    Blackberry have great plans for the QNX platform and besides, I'm pretty sure most of the loyal Blackberry fans would jump ship once they embrace the Android OS, myself for one.

    The only problem now is the delayed handsets and the lack of apps. Solutions? Partner with other phone manufacturers to develope QNX OS handsets!

    Phone companies like HTC, LG and SAMSUNG wouldn't wanna put all their eggs inside the Android platform because seeing how Google has teamed up with Motorola, they'll somehow have concerns over it.
    And QNX would be their perfect "backup plan". Develop phones based on the QNX OS, and layer it with TouchWiz or HTC Sense. Consumers wouldn't able to identify which is Android and which is QNX, but here QNX wins in it's powerful and responsive OS.(Judging by Pb OS1's responsiveness over early Android versions, correct me if I'm wrong)

    Of course, Blackberry would need to monitor those companies so that the QNX phones they produced would be up to standard and not too cheap. When there are tonnes of QNX powered phones, the apps would come in naturally.

    Besides, Blackberry owns a large portfolio of patents, and embracing the QNX platform would fed off the patent trolls.

    I mentioned QNX OS here because Blackberry is a phone manufacturer itself, and it don't let other phone manufacturer to eat into it's core bussiness, developing handsets. Hence BB10. BB10 is a QNX powered OS, but with blackberry functionality (BBM, BIS). It'll be a true blackberry handset for all those loyal BB fans.
    01-04-12 10:08 AM
  4. tack's Avatar
    I like this thread a lot, and I agree with a lot of the points.

    I disagree with going Android. I do agree with Android App compatibility immediately. I would also like to see them partner with Adobe or someone to provide seamless app porting, and may WP7/8 would be best like Sith suggested. I think the app ecosystem for WP7 is growing, and the interfaces are fresh and attractive. That alone could help RIM, but it also could help Microsoft, which might not be desirable.

    I do agree with going Cloud on everything. One of the killer features I love about the recent iOS updates is the iCloud integration. The fact my music, apps, photos, etc are available on all my devices and sync seamlessly, is killer. I love it, and it will probably keep me with Apple. If not for that feature alone and my wife having an iPhone to pair it with, I would have switched back to Android already. It is slick and it works. Are there things I would improve/change, yes. If RIM could come up with something better than this with a partner like Amazon and explain it clearly and make it truly easy to use, it would be great for them. It would attract me back potentially. I don't call this "Going Apple" as the Cloud is the future on all platforms, period. There will be 9 times the amount of mobile devices in the world versus other computing devices, including laptops. People are going to do more and more with a combo of tablets and phones. All those saying apps don't matter don't understand that apps are the future of computing, whether HTML5 apps or not.

    On the phone design, I think they need (1) Curve for low cost areas, (2) Bold 9900 as is, (3) Kick touchscreen at 4" to 4.5". They need to include FFC's and 8 megapixel plus cameras on every phone.

    Lastly, they need to market all of this well. Tell the audience about the killer features and make it stupid simple yet flashy. This is the only area where they need to "Go Apple".
    01-04-12 11:11 AM
  5. david.e.crocker@gmail.com's Avatar
    Good points.

    I guess I wonder why there is pushback on Android.

    If the OS itself, the core OS costs nothing and you can dev it up to your hearts content and developers already have apps (that as of today surpassed the 400,000 mark, which is not far off from Apple's 530,000) then I am stumped as to how the possibility of that many apps can and would be developed. Developers already dislike RIM for how hard they are to work with and all the crazy fragmentation they have with all the wildly different versions of the OS (WAY worse than Android, by the way).

    Look, the meat of the deal is simple, RIM is going to have to embrace someone and do it fast. They are too far behind the curve to be able to save their ecosystem. Everyone is totally ragging on Microsoft being so late to the game, well, RIM will be two years behind THAT once they eventually release the OS10 stuff...and that's assuming they don't change the timeline again. The world will not sit still while RIM develops the ecosystem.

    It's inevitable.

    This is why I say Android. Not for anything other than freedom to skin it, tweak it, work it however you see fit. Amazon has done a beautiful job of skinning Android in such a fashion that unless you know what to look for, it doesn't look at all like Android in any iteration.

    Can Android be secure? Yes. The US Military is using it now in the field.....so I assume that means something. The regular user isn't really seeing massive issues with viruses and malware, yet they exist. But in reality, if it were truly that bad, then Google themselves would have made adjustments for ICS.

    It's fine we agree to disagree. It is my opinion that Android is the best base OS to work with.

    Either way, RIM cannot continue on this path they're on. They've missed their window of opportunity. It was last year with OS7 (whoops, OS6.1, wait...what is it really??)
    01-04-12 01:58 PM
  6. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    The DoD has android approved for VERY specific cases, and nothing deemed mission critical. Nor do they rely on it for communications as they do BlackBerry. Its actually widely accepted within DoD that android cannot be secured to anything remotely resembling a BlackBerry on BES (even with GOOD Mobile installed on the android device). The same goes for iOS. Now they do manage to have an iPad that is able to be used for classified documents, but you have to physically gut the thing in order for it to work. No cameras, no radios of any kind. It can only be used for a document reader as well, no dynamic access.


    RIM has no choice but to build an OS from the ground up. QNX is already a VERY widely accepted kernel and is very certified and ALREADY in use in the FedGov. Using android app capability and even converting half of all android apps gives them 200k apps. That puts them easily in the game. If they can get developers to continue porting their apps, and then developing more apps for BB, you will see them grow to 300k easily enough.
    01-04-12 02:29 PM
  7. david.e.crocker@gmail.com's Avatar
    The DoD has android approved for VERY specific cases, and nothing deemed mission critical. Nor do they rely on it for communications as they do BlackBerry. Its actually widely accepted within DoD that android cannot be secured to anything remotely resembling a BlackBerry on BES (even with GOOD Mobile installed on the android device). The same goes for iOS. Now they do manage to have an iPad that is able to be used for classified documents, but you have to physically gut the thing in order for it to work. No cameras, no radios of any kind. It can only be used for a document reader as well, no dynamic access.


    RIM has no choice but to build an OS from the ground up. QNX is already a VERY widely accepted kernel and is very certified and ALREADY in use in the FedGov. Using android app capability and even converting half of all android apps gives them 200k apps. That puts them easily in the game. If they can get developers to continue porting their apps, and then developing more apps for BB, you will see them grow to 300k easily enough.
    Here's my question, then.

    How many BlackBerries are in the hands of those where NO OTHER mobile device wil provide the security they require?

    Is that ALL that RIM is willing to bank on or is it a business model where RIM can provide a DEVICE that is going to provide that servce?

    Plainly put, where is the money really being made with RIM? Is it the money they get from the carriers for BIS/BES? Is it device sales? Is it _________?

    This is what I am driving at. What is RIM's true vision for the next three, five, ten years? What are their goals? How are they going to achieve them? What are their fail-safes? What happens when the Enterprise market requirements or requests slow?

    There's alot to factor here and focusing so narrowly on one aspect that may not be their bread and butter is the point.

    Just because they CAN doesn't mean they SHOULD.

    Food for thought. Not trying to incite a riot, but simply stepping outside of the situation and looking in with fresh eyes and seeing what makes sense.

    Getting too close to the problem tends to blur ones vision.
    Last edited by AliensWanted; 01-04-12 at 02:45 PM.
    01-04-12 02:43 PM
  8. Sith_Apprentice's Avatar
    oh i enjoy conversations like this. RIM is banking on hardware currently. but if you look there are 150000+ BES out there even just 30 users each is 4.5mil devices. thats nothing to sneeze at from a corporate security perspective. now some of those have 100, 200, 500, 1000+ devices each. now you find RIMs bread and butter in the corporate world. thats millions of devices, active every month giving them 5-8$. this coupled with handset sales and you have most of their income. RIM may be growing overall in the consumer market because of developing countries, but imagine what will happen when they start growing BEs in those same countries.
    01-04-12 03:41 PM
  9. david.e.crocker@gmail.com's Avatar
    oh i enjoy conversations like this. RIM is banking on hardware currently. but if you look there are 150000+ BES out there even just 30 users each is 4.5mil devices. thats nothing to sneeze at from a corporate security perspective. now some of those have 100, 200, 500, 1000+ devices each. now you find RIMs bread and butter in the corporate world. thats millions of devices, active every month giving them 5-8$. this coupled with handset sales and you have most of their income. RIM may be growing overall in the consumer market because of developing countries, but imagine what will happen when they start growing BEs in those same countries.
    So if I look at that the way I do from a financial standpoint, RIM is benefitting from the costs associated with BES...the $5 to $8 they get per line. They aren't benefitting from the handset sales as much, it's the ongoing monthly revenue that is keeping them afloat.

    This is something that I was going to bring up next, so perfect segue, by the way

    Carriers.

    Carriers are tired of being tethered to this additional cost associated with each handset they sell activated using BIS and BES, even though my limited understanding of things is that the carriers AND the corporations share the cost when it comes to BES. Correct me if I am wrong, please.

    Currently, only BlackBerry charges these additional fees to provide this service. This is one of the primary reason why Android and iOS have taken off, cost management from the carriers and certain corporations. The carriers are assessing the value for the dollar they spend when it comes to implementing and managing these BlackBerry exclusive services.

    Android and Apple do not charge to activate and maintain a line, that is purely on the carrier. But there's another aspect.

    Handsets.

    Android is completely free to the handset manufacturers (save for some Motorola licensing money...hahaha) to make a handset for Android. Apple controls the whole process and while they skim their 30% from app sales and other sales through their walled garden, the handsets, even though expensive to buy as a carrier, cost no more on a monthly basis as does BlackBerry.

    This is a problem. This is a HUGE problem that RIM is probably neglecting. The face of things have changed so that companies are looking into all of it and calcuating the 'risk/reward' of paying for BIS/BES (and the fact that there are choices and/or desire for the many handsets available).

    I would calculate it. Anyone who works a budget would.

    This is the opportunity that BlackBerry needs to find a way to sidestep this, and honestly, I think that is probably what they're doing with QNX is trying to find a way to manage that cost associated with each line and service. if they can reduce or even possibly remove that fee, then they are also facing the grim reality of a 'bread and butter' profit to not exist any more. I think the problem is they didn't do their homework and realize that their ecosystem isn't future proof.

    Whoops.

    Their hand has been forced.

    I guess the business model was good for a while, but now that the face of the mobile environment has changed so much, they hesitated too long.

    All of this points back to a lack of vision or at least, a lack of options/gameplan. RIM lacks vision. This can't be any clearer than now.

    RIM needs to have an 'If A happens, we go to B' mentality and right now they are not showing that to be their mindset. They are saying quite clearly 'This is the path we're on, there is nothing wrong. Ignore the iceberg, this ship cannot sink'.

    That has to concern you. What they are doing is not working. It hasn't been working for years....their growth slowed down, yet they stayed true, which in many cases proves itself to be good, but in this technologically-rich environment it is not wise.

    Your thoughts?
    01-04-12 04:07 PM
  10. david.e.crocker@gmail.com's Avatar
    I thought this was a GREAT read - Ecosystem: the winner takes it all | The Verge

    My favorite quote - Oh, and if your app or OS isn't great, or mature enough to spread across an entire industry, you really shouldn't bother. Even operating systems full of good ideas alone, like Windows Phone or MeeGo, aren't sufficient. An OS with a small market share is too expensive to maintain and support with the necessary app ecosystem, device portfolio, and rapidly progressing set of features. As much as it pained me, the merging of Microsoft and Nokia's efforts, and the death of Meego, was a very natural result of realism on the part of both companies. Through this paradigm, webOS, an upstart on a closed platform, hardly stood a chance.

    Yep, webOS, while the most elegant OS, didn't have a fighting chance and even the mighty Microsoft with its compelling new OS probably won't make it.

    How does that show where RIM is in the thick of things?

    It pains me to say it over and over again, I just can't see RIM surviving this.

    Last quote - If your product isn't "a rising tide" that "lifts all boats," then it better be good enough to be the only boat. Otherwise you're probably wasting my time. You're certainly wasting yours.
    01-04-12 04:34 PM
  11. david.e.crocker@gmail.com's Avatar
    So with RIM dropping the number of OS10 handsets from three to one and wanting to license out the OS for other handset manfacturers, how does this bolster confidence?
    01-05-12 02:24 PM
  12. david.e.crocker@gmail.com's Avatar
    01-19-12 12:41 PM
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