1. bh7171's Avatar
    So I was doing some reading on the new S20 and the utter disappointment in sales figures. Of course the world is dealing with a pandemic at present however the socio-economic impact on economies is likely to be magnitudes worse in its toll on unemployment and persons psychological thoughts and spending habits. I suspect the new One Plus and any other OEM are going to have even worse sales figures. Apple is going to feel it with the new 9 and would probably be very, very wise to not release their 12 and 5G until 2021. The unemployment rates here in the US and globally are going to be monstrous. 😔
    04-01-20 11:06 PM
  2. conite's Avatar
    So I was doing some reading on the new S20 and the utter disappointment in sales figures. Of course the world is dealing with a pandemic at present however the socio-economic impact on economies is likely to be magnitudes worse in its toll on unemployment and persons psychological thoughts and spending habits. I suspect the new One Plus and any other OEM are going to have even worse sales figures. Apple is going to feel it with the new 9 and would probably be very, very wise to not release their 12 and 5G until 2021. The unemployment rates here in the US and globally are going to be monstrous.
    33% to 50% (about 280 million) of Samsung owners are ready to upgrade in any given year. They'll never stop with the annual refresh. Same goes with Apple and other manufacturers.

    Sure the next few months will shake things up, but things will all go back to normal.
    BergerKing likes this.
    04-01-20 11:23 PM
  3. bh7171's Avatar
    33% to 50% (about 280 million) of Samsung owners are ready to upgrade in any given year. They'll never stop with the annual refresh. Same goes with Apple and other manufacturers.

    Sure the next few months will shake things up, but things will all go back to normal.
    Think it's going to depend. The US economy for all intents and purposes, as with other economies, will almost be completely shut down as far as retail, leisure, restaurants, travel, airlines, etc, etc. for over 45 days. Unemployment is sky rocketing and that will perpetuate more unemployment. As a small business owner myself I am hopeful the 2.2 Trillion dollars helps. February, not just for Samsung, was a huge nosedive for all phone shipments. And although I agree somewhat with what you said about upgrades phones on the Flagship side have been and are actually still quite good from '16. Throw in a new battery and perform a factory reset and most would probably be a-ok. (My wife said she absolutely would not upgrade her S9 for an S20 variant as it works perfectly good)

    The key here in the US is going to be the real estate market. It's gotten so hot in so many markets people are hanging on by threads. I am most thankful for our position as we bought our two properties respectively in 02 and 07 and we are close in proximity to the Bay Area in California. That area is simply insane. It's in the least going to see a massive correction, like the overall market. If this "hysteria" and "fear" stays in consumers minds they are not going to upgrade. A lot of people don't know when their next paycheck is coming if it is at all.

    I'll bet Apple delays the 12 and 5G. They will be very expensive, like the S20 series (that has already fallen in price by 200 dollars) and like the S10 and S9 still being excellent slab devices so are the 11, XR, Xs and Xs Max and X.
    04-02-20 01:28 AM
  4. conite's Avatar
    Think it's going to depend. The US economy for all intents and purposes, as with other economies, will almost be completely shut down as far as retail, leisure, restaurants, travel, airlines, etc, etc. for over 45 days. Unemployment is sky rocketing and that will perpetuate more unemployment. As a small business owner myself I am hopeful the 2.2 Trillion dollars helps. February, not just for Samsung, was a huge nosedive for all phone shipments. And although I agree somewhat with what you said about upgrades phones on the Flagship side have been and are actually still quite good from '16. Throw in a new battery and perform a factory reset and most would probably be a-ok. (My wife said she absolutely would not upgrade her S9 for an S20 variant as it works perfectly good)

    The key here in the US is going to be the real estate market. It's gotten so hot in so many markets people are hanging on by threads. I am most thankful for our position as we bought our two properties respectively in 02 and 07 and we are close in proximity to the Bay Area in California. That area is simply insane. It's in the least going to see a massive correction, like the overall market. If this "hysteria" and "fear" stays in consumers minds they are not going to upgrade. A lot of people don't know when their next paycheck is coming if it is at all.

    I'll bet Apple delays the 12 and 5G. They will be very expensive, like the S20 series (that has already fallen in price by 200 dollars) and like the S10 and S9 still being excellent slab devices so are the 11, XR, Xs and Xs Max and X.
    All it means is that it will be a poor year for handset OEMs - as it will be for most other companies.

    My interpretation of your thread title was that this is the end of the annual refresh forever - which I don't believe it is.
    04-02-20 07:35 AM
  5. bh7171's Avatar
    All it means is that it will be a poor year for handset OEMs - as it will be for most other companies.

    My interpretation of your thread title was that this is the end of the annual refresh forever - which I don't believe it is.
    Your interpretation was correct. I do believe this scenario could be the beginning of the end of the annual refresh. There will likely be a few OEM's that don't make it through these times. US unemployment doubled from last week to now 6.6 million and the country will still be shut down for another month at least. (And it will take months beyond to rebound)

    If the f'n banks don't release and get the funds approved from the stimulus into small businesses hands quickly as was the intent expect to see much, much worse and all but day to day essentials being purchased for an extended time. The phones released now will be the "new" ones when people do get around to being able to not be "afraid" and spend $$ on upgrading a device that already works perfectly fine. (Maybe just not as fast or with the latest camera, but operationally sound and run all the apps they need while one shelters in place)
    04-02-20 12:21 PM
  6. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    Your interpretation was correct. I do believe this scenario could be the beginning of the end of the annual refresh. There will likely be a few OEM's that don't make it through these times. US unemployment doubled from last week to now 6.6 million and the country will still be shut down for another month at least. (And it will take months beyond to rebound)

    If the f'n banks don't release and get the funds approved from the stimulus into small businesses hands quickly as was the intent expect to see much, much worse and all but day to day essentials being purchased for an extended time. The phones released now will be the "new" ones when people do get around to being able to not be "afraid" and spend $$ on upgrading a device that already works perfectly fine. (Maybe just not as fast or with the latest camera, but operationally sound and run all the apps they need while one shelters in place)
    TCL, HTC, LG and Sony have been on the way out for a few years... maybe now they'll have something to blame on getting out, other than their inability to make any money on smartphones.

    But people will always be in the market for something new.... we aren't all on the same upgrade cycle. Which is why most every electronics company pushes out a new model every year.
    04-02-20 03:25 PM
  7. Gene Fells's Avatar
    So I was doing some reading on the new S20 and the utter disappointment in sales figures. Of course the world is dealing with a pandemic at present however the socio-economic impact on economies is likely to be magnitudes worse in its toll on unemployment and persons psychological thoughts and spending habits. I suspect the new One Plus and any other OEM are going to have even worse sales figures. Apple is going to feel it with the new 9 and would probably be very, very wise to not release their 12 and 5G until 2021. The unemployment rates here in the US and globally are going to be monstrous. 😔
    Agreed on the iPhone 12 but i actually believe the 9 will sell in huge numbers. An "affordable" phone in uncertain times offering those who wish to join the apple circus or update to a cost effective option.

    The 9 also offers something that no android OEM seems willing to make - a pocket-able phone that negates the need for over the shoulder suspenders to hold up one's pants / slacks.

    Apart from the Samsung S10E, android phones just keep on growing in size and weight. There is little choice nowadays - it's either large, XL or gigantic; similar to the speed options on Spaceball One.
    MikeX74 likes this.
    04-02-20 04:19 PM
  8. bh7171's Avatar
    Agreed on the iPhone 12 but i actually believe the 9 will sell in huge numbers. An "affordable" phone in uncertain times offering those who wish to join the apple circus or update to a cost effective option.

    The 9 also offers something that no android OEM seems willing to make - a pocket-able phone that negates the need for over the shoulder suspenders to hold up one's pants / slacks.

    Apart from the Samsung S10E, android phones just keep on growing in size and weight. There is little choice nowadays - it's either large, XL or gigantic; similar to the speed options on Spaceball One.
    I agree on the iPhone 9 as it was/is to far along to stop production, same on the 4a however I believe those two will suffer as well. Psychologically masses of consumers are not going to be thinking of "upgrading" if they are in the unemployment line so to speak. In another month of limited economic and business activities the carnage nationwide here in the US will be immense and felt by all.
    04-02-20 04:57 PM
  9. idssteve's Avatar
    Global trauma can motivate re-evaluation of wasteful habits...
    anon(5597702) and bh7171 like this.
    04-03-20 05:34 AM
  10. anon(5597702)'s Avatar
    Global trauma can motivate re-evaluation of wasteful habits...
    I hope it does and I hope the above prediction of "things will go back to normal" is wrong.
    04-03-20 07:03 AM
  11. bakron1's Avatar
    I have always been an optimist and I am hoping this crisis is not going to have long term efforts on the smartphone industry. It will depend largely on how quick we all get back to work and start getting paychecks again.

    If this does drag out longer then anticipated, it will not be good. They talk about China coming back online which is OK except there is no one with any money to buy your products, that’s the reality of where we are currently at.
    04-03-20 07:04 AM
  12. conite's Avatar
    Global trauma can motivate re-evaluation of wasteful habits...
    How is it wasteful?

    There are hundreds of millions of folks looking to upgrade in any given year - even if they had kept their previous devices for 3, 4, or even 5 years.

    Take 3.5 billion, and divide by any number under 10, and you are are still left with a huge number.
    04-03-20 08:04 AM
  13. idssteve's Avatar
    How is it wasteful?

    There are hundreds of millions of folks looking to upgrade in any given year - even if they had kept their previous devices for 3, 4, or even 5 years.

    Take 3.5 billion, and divide by any number under 10, and you are are still left with a huge number.
    Not saying that it IS wasteful. That remains to be determined thru any re-evaluation, imo. That, in turn, might be driven by altered priorities? Or not??

    Many millions are hiding in home from "normal" productive pursuits. How many man-hrs of production are lost forever each day? Each month?? Who's producing and delivering products such as food and other things consumers consume? How are sequestered consumers generating "expendable" income?

    Jump starting global "supply and demand" might prove reminiscent of jump starting "chicken and egg". Consumers spending expendable income can certainly assist the jump start... ASSUMING that enough of those consumers enjoy adequate expendable income. That's assuming they either get out of the house enough to generate income... OR reconfigure personal situations to work from home. If the latter, will next year's device prove more efficiently productive than last year's?

    Tomorrow's priorities might not prove identical to yesterday's.
    bakron1 and bh7171 like this.
    04-03-20 10:20 AM
  14. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    I hope it does and I hope the above prediction of "things will go back to normal" is wrong.
    Why on earth, literally, would you not want earth to return to normal?
    04-03-20 08:58 PM
  15. Bbnivende's Avatar
    Why on earth, literally, would you not want earth to return to normal?
    Define normal... I think of October 2016 myself.
    04-03-20 11:55 PM
  16. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Define normal... I think of October 2016 myself.
    Why do you define that specific date as normal?
    04-04-20 04:07 AM
  17. anon(5597702)'s Avatar
    Why on earth, literally, would you not want earth to return to normal?
    That's not at all what I said and you know it. Of course I want things to normalize; read earlier in the thread for the context of what I was quoting.
    04-04-20 05:46 AM
  18. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    That's not at all what I said and you know it. Of course I want things to normalize; read earlier in the thread for the context of what I was quoting.
    So I understand now that you hate Pandemics too, but I’m still confused as to what don’t you want to return to normal?
    04-04-20 05:53 AM
  19. bh7171's Avatar
    How is it wasteful?

    There are hundreds of millions of folks looking to upgrade in any given year - even if they had kept their previous devices for 3, 4, or even 5 years.

    Take 3.5 billion, and divide by any number under 10, and you are are still left with a huge number.
    Android is wasteful and everyone knows it. Devices being supported with 1, 2 or none OS version updates and 12-24 or 48 months of security patches... Those numbers as abysmal and we all know it. I can buy a Lenovo Chromebook and have it supported for 6-8 years. Apple is notoriously good about OS and security patch updates when they were not intentionally slowing down users devices to get people to unnecessarily upgrade.

    The current and immediate future global economic climate COULD (not saying it will) create some positive changes to cut down on the E-waste and persons belief that they need to upgrade as frequently as before.
    04-04-20 01:21 PM
  20. bh7171's Avatar
    Not saying that it IS wasteful. That remains to be determined thru any re-evaluation, imo. That, in turn, might be driven by altered priorities? Or not??

    Many millions are hiding in home from "normal" productive pursuits. How many man-hrs of production are lost forever each day? Each month?? Who's producing and delivering products such as food and other things consumers consume? How are sequestered consumers generating "expendable" income?

    Jump starting global "supply and demand" might prove reminiscent of jump starting "chicken and egg". Consumers spending expendable income can certainly assist the jump start... ASSUMING that enough of those consumers enjoy adequate expendable income. That's assuming they either get out of the house enough to generate income... OR reconfigure personal situations to work from home. If the latter, will next year's device prove more efficiently productive than last year's?

    Tomorrow's priorities might not prove identical to yesterday's.
    Well said. I believe consumers are getting wiser in that they realize an extra lens or incrementally faster processor has nothing to do with 99 percent of users device experience or efficiency.

    I understand the OEM's business need to refresh and "sell" a "new" device BUT SO many of the existing are and have been so good there is actually no need. For Samsung and Apple there '18 and '19 devices were so good they can and still are being sold "new". If one wants a PKB and all the apps any of the Key devices still operate and function beautifully for their purpose and market.
    04-04-20 01:30 PM
  21. conite's Avatar
    Android is wasteful and everyone knows it. Devices being supported with 1, 2 or none OS version updates and 12-24 or 48 months of security patches... Those numbers as abysmal and we all know it. I can buy a Lenovo Chromebook and have it supported for 6-8 years. Apple is notoriously good about OS and security patch updates when they were not intentionally slowing down users devices to get people to unnecessarily upgrade.

    The current and immediate future global economic climate COULD (not saying it will) create some positive changes to cut down on the E-waste and persons belief that they need to upgrade as frequently as before.
    But even if people keep phones for 6 years, that still leaves almost 600 million people looking for a new phone each year.
    04-04-20 03:03 PM
  22. Chuck Finley69's Avatar
    Well said. I believe consumers are getting wiser in that they realize an extra lens or incrementally faster processor has nothing to do with 99 percent of users device experience or efficiency.

    I understand the OEM's business need to refresh and "sell" a "new" device BUT SO many of the existing are and have been so good there is actually no need. For Samsung and Apple there '18 and '19 devices were so good they can and still are being sold "new". If one wants a PKB and all the apps any of the Key devices still operate and function beautifully for their purpose and market.
    What’s the question or concern? As far as Key devices, being stuck on Android Oreo makes it a no go for many that are required to maintain corporate security policy and protocols. Both my KEYones are essentially hobby devices now because of no further updates. That has nothing to do with OEMs and carriers as much as liability exposure. Nobody is forced to upgrade each year and the economic need for OEMs to push sales won’t change.
    04-04-20 04:09 PM
  23. Dunt Dunt Dunt's Avatar
    What’s the question or concern? As far as Key devices, being stuck on Android Oreo makes it a no go for many that are required to maintain corporate security policy and protocols. Both my KEYones are essentially hobby devices now because of no further updates. That has nothing to do with OEMs and carriers as much as liability exposure. Nobody is forced to upgrade each year and the economic need for OEMs to push sales won’t change.
    Yeah I don't think he understands that OEMs don't push new devices just for the fun of it.... it's a time honored marketing practices, that works. People buy what it is new....
    04-08-20 07:19 AM

Similar Threads

  1. Take the headache out of shopping for car insurance with The Zebra
    By CrackBerry News in forum CrackBerry.com News Discussion & Contests
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 06-24-20, 05:28 AM
  2. Replies: 8
    Last Post: 04-18-20, 10:44 PM
  3. End of the road for BlackBerry phones?
    By thidisbogus in forum BlackBerry KEY2 LE
    Replies: 14
    Last Post: 04-13-20, 02:12 PM
  4. Can I expect any future updates for the BlackBerry KeyTwo?
    By Blackberry Keytwo in forum BlackBerry KEY2
    Replies: 21
    Last Post: 04-10-20, 09:41 PM
  5. Replies: 12
    Last Post: 04-07-20, 11:12 AM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD