Dec 31st, 2014 - a prediction
Just for fun, I am going to try to predict the marketshare of the top 4 phone ecosystems 2 years out.
Microsoft and RIM will total around 25%
Apple will itself have 25%
Android will have 50%
Microsoft is too big to give up and it has compatibility with some of its desktop software going for it. It can also do focus groups to determine what has to be changed to make it more appealing.
RIM will do well because of its security and Balance features as well as its up-to-date User Experience. It is also going to do well because people think of it as one of the big players. even though it has fallen back for a couple of years or so.
My combination of the two percentages is just an indication that I think the bottom two ecosystems will grab around 1/4 of the market due to their superior security and other business suitability issues.
Apple will continue to sucker 25% of the population who have spent large quantities of money for iTunes and apps.
Android will continue to dominate in the lower price point phone market where people are just looking for a phone that can surf the net and play some cheap games. Some techies will also buy their higher price phones due to the higher hardware specs. This does not mean that the companies that sell the phones will be making a lot of money off of them because the phones will be comoditised much like HDTVs now are.