[Sith_Apprentice]

We have seen, over the last few weeks, what Kevin and the CB staff think about BlackBerry being sold, and the potential buyers. We know the list keeps growing as we tick down the last few weeks until November 4th. We also know that BlackBerry, as it stands, is in very rough shape. That being said, there are many many threads where people have posted their opinions, and I believe it is high time that the Modfia does the same.

This thread is meant to be light, and just present how different mods view the situation. We are no different than any of you, and we have our own thoughts, wants, and fears when it comes to BlackBerry. Many of us have spent years here, following BlackBerry, supporting them, and at times giving criticism to the company that has, in one way or another, influenced our lives. We come from many walks of life, from many areas around the world, and we definitely have different opinions.

We welcome your input, but this thread will be heavily moderated and kept on topic. I want this clean, and discussions based only on the posts that the mods have posted. There will definitely be back and forth, and I know that I will love to respond to what the members think (as well as the other mods). I will be happy to answer any questions related to my post, and any predictions or thoughts therein. Do not engage other members (though obviously there will be some overlap in opinions surely), as there are a myriad of threads devoted to that. This is purely a fun way to interact with your mod staff in something that is quite relevant to our discussions here (and for some potentially our daily lives).

A bit of a background on this thread. This started as a friendly 'gentleman's bet' between just_luc and myself. We were debating what the eventual outcome would be. From that the idea for a public thread between the two of us, for bragging rights, came into being. The natural evolution of that idea was this thread for any mods to chime in.

That being said, let the fun begin!

[Sith_Apprentice]

My thoughts on BlackBerry being sold are mixed, and I will attempt to outline those thoughts here. For the first part, I will give a brief overview of how I see the company. Next, I will address a few of the companies that have reportedly signed NDAs regarding a potential sale. In this section, I will also discuss my take on the Canadian government, and how they could block a potential sale. Finally, I will cover what I see as a way forward for BlackBerry, where the pitfalls are, and where I can see them shine. I will say that some of my views could be controversial, and that is why we are here right; to get things out, to openly discuss them. All that being said, sit back, grab some popcorn, and enjoy!

There should be no doubt that BlackBerry is in trouble. They have a rapidly shrinking user base, very little market share, and have lost money. They are now starting to eat into their cash reserves, and have slashed (or in process of) a huge percentage of their work force. The BlackBerry 10 devices have not been well received, and users around the globe are voting with their wallets and choosing other platforms. The news is nearly all bad out of Waterloo, and there does not seem to be much hope in their current course. But how did BlackBerry get here? How did they fall? This has been well covered, but what I feel is different, is the last 3 years or so.

BlackBerry knows they did not counter the iPhone, they know they did not react to Android. They also know they became complacent with their Enterprise contracts and their MDM offering. They needed a new OS; they needed new, modern hardware. But in an industry all about economy of scale, how did they think they could compete with companies like LG, Samsung, Apple, and a slew of others? BlackBerry is a relatively small company, and focuses exclusively on mobile devices. The companies I listed, they have something else, and another revenue stream to survive on if their mobile foray didn’t succeed.

Several years ago, around the time of the QNX acquisition, I was speaking to several people at BlackBerry (then RIM) about the possibility of licensing this new OS to other hardware vendors, and dumping the hardware business side. BlackBerry has historically never been on the cutting edge for devices. Let’s face it, the 99xx is a great device, but it did not compete with the devices current at its release. It was late, as BlackBerry has been doing for quite some time. Even today, the Z30 is spec’d with devices from earlier this year. My suggestion, at the time, to fill this void was HTC. Say what you want about profits, advertising, etc., but HTC makes great devices. The HTC One is a perfect example of this. While I do not think HTC would work currently (though they may be willing to license BB10 just to differentiate themselves from the Android crowd) there are other suggestions. What about Sony or LG? Both of these hardware vendors have made great devices, and are having severe issues in the current market space. A partnership with these companies will definitely help BlackBerry long term, and increase the number of devices carrying BB10 that come to market. If BlackBerry were to partner with these (or any number of companies), they could shutter their hardware business, saving themselves significant R&D and supply costs.

Before I move on to discuss the companies that have shown interest in BlackBerry, I have one thing to say regarding the Canadian government blocking a potential acquisition of BlackBerry. Does the Canadian government have the ability to block a sale, if it is not in the best interest of the country? Yes, from my understanding they do. Do I believe they would? No, I believe that even if there are Canadian interests in the company the Government would allow the shareholders to vote on the best offer, and allow the company to be sold to the highest bidder. They may consider blocking the sale if the company is planning to break BlackBerry apart, but they also may not. It is very clear, in their current context, that BlackBerry is failing, and now more rapidly than before. There would be no point, short of a bail out, to preventing a buying from purchasing the company. Blocking a sale puts the entire company at risk, and several thousand additional jobs potentially lost.

Now we move on to the companies that have shown, or reportedly shown interest in BlackBerry. We might as well start from the top, with Fairfax. Prem Watsa has been very much involved with BlackBerry for the last year, serving on the Board of Directors, and then abruptly resigning this summer. For his resignation, he cited conflicts of interest, which immediately made me think that he had plans for BlackBerry. He has made his intentions known of course, and wants to take BlackBerry private, removing shareholder pressure and getting it out of the public spotlight as much. Hopefully this will cause the doom and gloom stories to die down a bit, and give the company a chance to recover. I am not saying that he will do this, as frankly I am not convinced BlackBerry can survive as they do today. There needs to be significant chances, and I will get into those changes later. It is unclear why Prem would be interested, but I suppose it will take some time for that to play out.

Can a former CEO, that has left the company, be its savior? Well, it has happened before, a little company called Apple and a man named Steve Jobs. Apple proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that this can happen, this fairy tale turn around for a company is very much on the table. But how many people on Earth have the drive, the charisma of Jobs? I would say a handful at best. Mike Lazaridis definitely is a brilliant man, a man who built BlackBerry from nothing. Does he have the technical capability to do this? I believe he does, I believe he can push BB10 to where it needs to be. I have spoken with Mike on several occasions, and his prowess does indeed center in technology. What he needs is someone to help him market the product, to drive adoption. I believe this is where BlackBerry has been lacking the entire time, from start to now. They have lacked marketing, and I do not believe they can survive in a consumer world (or even in an Enterprise world) without it. I believe Mike L. might shutter hardware if he takes over. Right now they need to stabilize the bleeding, and removing a significant portion of your costs, especially when those costs are not reaping any rewards (not selling), is a good step. It is true that he is a genius with technology, especially things like radio technologies. But I honestly believe that BlackBerry’s future is not in hardware, at least not right now. Their future rests on QNX, and what they can do with it.

Next we have Google. I think the play here is quite obvious. Google has already gone after one patent rich company (Motorola), and more can only help them in their potential legal battles. Google also is working on self-driving cars, and being able to add QNX to this, or use the QNX neutrino OS (not the BB10 OS necessarily) for these would be an interesting pair. It would also give Google an instant “IN” into the car infotainment systems. This could be a huge benefit to them in their process of consolidating devices and the ‘internet of things’ (nice buzz word isn’t it?). Google doesn’t need the OS for mobile devices or tablets so we will likely see BB10 OS disappear if Google purchases the company.

Cisco is another potential bidder, and this fit I find the strangest, and not for the reason that most people think. Cisco is definitely interested in the mobile realm, and are actively pursuing it. They have been working with Samsung for some time and are coming out with a custom, hardened version of the Galaxy S4. This takes Knox to the next level with a fully baked version of SE Android. For those that are not familiar, this is NSA’s version of Android they helped design from the ground up. This features many of Cisco’s own products baked in, and is going to be tested for up to classified communications (something BlackBerry has not been awarded). This device would be MORE secure than BlackBerry. This aims directly at BlackBerry’s home turf, and they are trying to do things better, with brand new technology. Since they have invested so much time and effort with SE Android and Samsung, I don’t understand why they would make a move on BlackBerry.

The rest of the companies I can cover in the same section. Amazon, Dell, Lenovo, IBM, etc. Most of these companies are looking for a way into the mobile game. Amazon has a tablet, but no smartphone, Dell failed miserably with theirs. Lenovo and IBM are the same as Amazon, looking for a foot hold. Any of these companies would get a good start at an enterprise base for mobile, and the patents that go along with it. They would also get the BlackBerry infrastructure, which could be utilized to delivery cloud services. In this regard, perhaps Amazon, a very big player in the consumer field, would be the best fit. Marry the consumer giant with one of the leader of enterprise communications and you could have a very good fit. Unfortunately, none of these companies I see keeping the BB10 OS, as many have either attempted Android or rumors have circulated that they have.

There are very few options I see that BlackBerry will remain whole, and most involve BB10 going the way of webOS. While I believe that BB10 DOES offer a lot, it simply has failed to gain traction. This is a huge problem, as even in the installed user base for BB7 has not moved on to BB10. Why would another company come in and try to roll out an OS that has seemingly failed? Short answer, they wouldn’t. The only chance BB10 has to continue would be for adoption to increase, rapidly. This goes to the next section, the way forward for BlackBerry.

So what is the way forward for BlackBerry, how can they remain in business (to put it bluntly)? This is a question on many people’s minds. There are those that simply write the company off, saying they are done and there is no way to come back from it. I don’t subscribe to this, and I do believe the company can be saved. There are major caveats though. For instance, I do believe BlackBerry needs to go cross platform with BBM. I think they also need to continue to pursue a truly great MDM solution, and give a fully featured product to enterprise. I also believe they need to shut down their hardware department. This may sound drastic, but I do not believe their hardware is strong enough to stand on its own. I have been a very enthusiastic BlackBerry supporter for some time, and much like our fearless leader (CBK), I have had nearly every device that was released. I do tend to stick to GSM, and I did pass on the P’9981, but other than that I have had every GSM BlackBerry for many, many years. (I still have my 950 lying around somewhere). I have the Z10 Limited Edition (multiple in fact), and several Q10s, and I love the devices. Unfortunately, I do not believe that the hardware is where it needs to be. The Z30 is my next device (hope to have it soon), but even this flagship device lags behind others in performance. Now, I am not talking the spec war like most people, I am talking real world performance. These are things like how fast a page loads, how it renders, the camera quality for photos and video, etc. I simply think that BlackBerry does not have the economy of scale to compete with the likes of Samsung and Apple, and that is a sad thing to say. All hope is not lost however, and they CAN successfully navigate this turn around.

But without hardware, what does this leave? They need to focus on being a software/services company for now, and re-evaluate hardware at a later date. They have a huge capability that is being wasted, the much talked about NOC structure. Quite simply this is being under-utilized. Why not make this into a huge cloud services offering, deliver content and services (perhaps from a partner such as Amazon) directly to the end user, across multiple platforms. Why limit yourself to a single OS? They have begun this process with cross platform BBM, but that should be only the first step. Use this new foothold, these millions of users (50 million active at last count) and deliver content directly through this social experience. Deliver movies and music through BBM, across platform, on any device. Offer a subscription service; allow users to pay for services they want. Add in voice and video chat to make it a truly full featured social network. One of the best ways is to use channels. Work with the major movie studios; get them to deliver content directly through channels. I am not talking just images or links etc., but in line videos that can be viewed by subscribers. Think a YouTube channel on all mobile devices. Let these millions of users drive adoption of the platform and services. Make money from them, even if only a few dollars a month, that still can easily amount to hundreds of millions of dollars.

Obviously, the above isn’t enough; the company cannot simply rely on BBM channels to survive. There needs to be another revenue source, something that is proven, that they can rely on. Most people have no idea that a great many vehicles on the road rely on the same technology as BB10, the same core. Why not make them more aware? Start rebranding this to include the word “BlackBerry”, label it the same (even so far as calling it BlackBerry 10). Have all future vehicles that use this system show the BlackBerry logo, advertise that the phones offer the same experience. Allow apps to be cross platform for the car, let developers capitalize on this immense opportunity. Start building brand loyalty by adding millions of vehicles a year to the BlackBerry platform; those are millions of potential users. Bake in features that tie BBM into the vehicle, using voice controls allow the end user to converse via BBM video and voice. Look at this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=wY9AzUfSdKU and make that happen, with any device, cross platform, through BBM, in any vehicle using QNX. The technology is there NOW to make this happen (at least most of it), and that would be a HUGE selling point. Imagine enabling corporate fleets with this technology, government vehicles, police officers, fire, ambulance, emergency services. Can you imagine what this could hold with smart technology, powered by the backbone of QNX? Imagine having police vehicles talking to one another, routing officers through traffic real time to the scene of an accident. One touch calling links these officers to emergency personnel for fire and EMS, all sharing location and sharing details of location. When EMS are on scene, now using their BB10 powered device, through their vehicle internet (secured through the BES) to submit vitals and medicals stats real time from Bluetooth LE devices. Having doctors be able to have this information BEFORE a patient arrives.

Now, take all of that and spiral one further step out. What if the vehicle involved in the accident could communicate to the family of the driver? What if it could alert them to the accident immediately (along with police, fire, and EMS)? What if they could get in their car, and be routed to the hospital where their family member would arrive, either prior, or at the same time? How many people would want to be there for their loved one, and be proactive about it, not reactive? How many people have, and I hope this never affects anyone, arrived too late? What if we could cut that time down, what if we could stay in real time communication the whole time? Would that not be enough to at least try?

We can step one step further back (and I promise this is the last step down this little rabbit hole). What if the vehicles themselves could communicate? We have already seen predictive braking in vehicles using radar like technology and the cars stopping themselves. Now imagine this information being transmitted real time to the car behind it, and the car behind them. How many accidents could be avoided that happen because of this domino effect? How many injuries, sometimes serious, could be either lessened or prevented? This truly is a capability that can be built on the QNX backbone with BB10. There are hints, there are glimpses in the world now (OnStar for instance uses vehicle notification to EMS and uses QNX), but nothing really brings it all together.

Can you imagine the MASSIVE potential that BlackBerry has if they could simply step past what is now, and move on to what is next? They do not have to follow Apple and Samsung; they have this ‘in’ that no other company (save perhaps Microsoft) in the world has. BlackBerry could reinvent itself nearly overnight. They could really bring the ‘internet of things’ to reality, and they could use the backbone they ALREADY have in place. They could leverage the NOC to securely transmit all of this data, end to end encrypted between hosts. Use the proven BlackBerry security that is already baked in, use the ‘infallible’ QNX core, provide over the air updates to their devices, their products, and their services.

BlackBerry has amazing potential in QNX, and they also do have a great product in BB10. They need to leverage this into something far greater than it is. BlackBerry also has a ton of people that have not made the switch from BB7 to BB10. Why haven’t these users upgraded? What is missing from BB10 on why these existing uses do not want to upgrade? Is it simply price based? If it is, BlackBerry should offer a trade up program; turn in an existing BB7 and below device and get a free Z10. The inventory has been written down, to huge losses no less. Why not make the best of it?

I realize now that I forgot another potentially important area for BlackBerry. I did mention BES10, but only in passing, and this is doing it a great disservice. BES10 is in its infancy, the BDS portion remains largely unchanged from BES5, but UDS is something completely new. UDS lags behind BDS in a great many ways, and the user interface is not organized at all. BlackBerry needs to fix this, streamline the UDS management, and then expands its capabilities.

Let’s take a moment to consider what truly cross platform mobile device management can mean. Do we have to be limited to smartphones and tablets? No, I believe we can do more, much more. What if we can take the BES interface (Management studio or even UDS directly) and use that to exert control, and securely communicate, with a multitude of devices. We will use the above examples for this exercise, I will start with the driver level and work my way out. I am the owner of a vehicle with a BB10 infotainment center. Why could I not have a home version of BES (there used to be one, kind of), where I could manage my BB10 phone, my Android/iOS tablet, and my vehicle? What if I could push applications or security policies from this one console to all of my devices? What if I could track, unlock, lock, and get vital information on them all at once? In the morning, I could wake up, log into my BES, check how much fuel is in my car, and apply a profile so my stereo preferences, seat location, etc. is all ready for me the moment I sit in the vehicle. Once the car is on, my phone would link to it, feeding the in dash infotainment system my work address, my itinerary for the day, any contacts I have meetings with, linking all of this vital information. My car could download live traffic data, route me around any accidents, and let any people know if I was going to be late, all through my phone. (I realize I touched on this earlier, but I want to bring up the BES information in this section).

Now, lets say at work, my car is stolen. There are a couple of ways this could be handled. The vehicle could “know” that it was broken in to, alerting me via text, email, or automated call. It could also let the police know, and the GPS coordinates could be given, real time, to the authorities. Meanwhile, I could log into my BES console and track the vehicle, lock the car down, and even shut it off remotely (like Onstar does) to prevent the thieves from getting away. In vehicle cameras (used for video conferencing and security) could snap photos of the thief, and automatically provide those as well. All this, automated, securely, and communicating real time through BES encrypted channels, through the NOC, to wherever it needs to go.
Now, let’s take one step further back. How many parents here have worried when their teenager starts to drive on their own? Or for that matter, how many will? What if you could apply a profile to the device that allows you to set a maximum speed for the vehicle? What if the BES could alert you to deviations from a planned location (geo-fencing around school or work locations), automatically? How about if your child forgets their keys in the car and needs it unlocked? A few keystrokes and you can unlock, and relock the vehicle without having to call for assistance. What if you could set this up simply with profiles in the BES server and easily apply them to a car? I know that I reference the car a great deal, but the same principle can be used with a cell phone or tablet. You could have this end to end encrypted connection, allowing you to secure and manage these devices.

The last section I want to touch on would be government and specifically military. We have all (or many of us) heard about using drones for surveillance etc. What if the military could manage these drones through BES (well a hardened version), and now let’s add in other devices. They can manage all of the devices through one console, and allow data to be shared between these devices. Let me explain that last line. If you have used and managed legacy BES systems, you know that you can set a BES specific encryption key. This allows users to talk securely to one another through BBM, but no one else can decrypt the messages. That was a very basic description, but accurate. So, expanding on this technology, now we have a special hardened version of BES (approved for Top Secret or higher communications), with an ADDITIONAL layer of security that allows ONLY devices on that BES to talk to one another. A drone flies over a city, or battlefield, or wherever, and in real time pipes that data, through the BES, to hardened mobile devices on the ground. Troops could have an aerial, real time view of the battlefield, and have up to date intelligence at all times. They could have their movement’s updated based on conditions for terrain, any enemy combatants, even something as simple as traffic. A drone is only one source of information, the more devices, sensors, pieces of equipment you have aggregating data, the better picture you will get.

This is an area where BlackBerry has never gone, and they definitely could. If they plan on being serious for government and enterprise, classified communications is a huge hole in their portfolio that they must fill, immediately. These are only a couple of simple examples that I believe most people could relate to. I have a ton of others that I may write up later, but for now this is good.


I know this has been a huge rambling adventure, but I truly believe BlackBerry CAN turn this around. They need to become something more than they were, they need to realize their devices are not the be-all end-all, and the hardware is a conduit for the services. They need to expand their perception of the world around them and truly drive innovation. Can they do this? Yes, but they need to act NOW. I have only listed a few alternatives for BlackBerry and what they can do, but there are hundreds of potential services they can tap in to.
I hope you have enjoyed this writing, and I do hope you ask plenty of questions! I look forward to the modfia’s ideas and replies. This should be very fun!



Addendum (11/5/13):
Now that we know the results of the BlackBerry due diligence period, that ended November 4^th, I will add my follow up thoughts. This won’t be the typical book long post that I have written so far in this thread, more of a quick blurb on what I see as happening now.

Let me start by saying I did not see this coming, in any way. I did not think that Fairfax would offer something they could not achieve, and while reports said they might not, it was speculation until that time period was up. If you read back, my best case scenario for BlackBerry was for Fairfax or Mike L to take them private. We all know that did not happen, and Chris U has done an excellent job (as always) covering what the current deal means, and how it is likely to play out. Fairfax and Prem have taken a larger interest in the company by essentially loaning BlackBerry $1B. I won’t comment on the deal itself, but I do see some long term danger in this. BlackBerry has debt now, something it has not had before. They have long touted their strong cash position and no debt as signs of financial health. Their cash is dwindling, and now they have taken on a substantial amount of debt. If things do not turn around quickly, it can go south, very, very quickly.

The interim CEO has also come out and stated they will not be doing away with their hardware business. I have made my views clear on this in saying that BlackBerry should (if possible) offload the manufacturing to an OEM, like Google has done with Android. They should move into the software/services realm and compete in an area they have historically done well in. BlackBerry devices have been status symbols in the past, largely because of what they represent. They have never been the “cool” phone, not because of the phone itself. Unless a great deal changes (and the Z30 is not enough), this will only continue to be true.

I do not think that BlackBerry’s direction, their way forward, needs to be different from my earlier ramblings. I still think their future lies in the ‘internet of things’ and in true mobile device management (expanded devices). I do believe they can still turn this ship around and return to profitability, but the road ahead (with the loan and keeping the handset business) is going to be very difficult for them to climb.
I am sure I will have more later, and I will try to keep it relatively short (so you don’t have to register for college credit to read this thread!). I look forward to everyone’s replies!

[just_luc]

Wow! That was a great read, and is going to be a tough post to follow.

As my esteemed colleague said above, this all spawned from an impromptu debate that occurred between the two of us, where we disagreed on some key points so we thought it would be fun to turn it into a friendly bet.. when stakes were discussed the idea of the winner creating a thread for bragging rights came out, and from that it was obvious.. why not just start the thread now, invite others to join, get all the mods opinions on paper (funny that expression these days isn't it? There no 'paper' involved.) have a good debate about it, and revisit when the dust settles to see who was closest to right. Phenomenal idea, and I think if enough people choose to contribute we could have a lot of fun, but I had no idea we were going to go into this kind of depth!

My thumbs may well be raw and bloody by the time I'm done, but I'm game so here goes!


First a little background: Those who know me will no doubt know that I am the living embodiment of a BlackBerry fan.. and I make no reservations or apologies to that affect. I've been using and loving BlackBerry's since before they were even called BlackBerry's dating all the way back to the RIM 950. But I'm not a 'fan boy' in the sense that I blindly approve of every decision the company makes, or would purchase any device the company produced just because it said BlackBerry on it..(we'll talk about the Z30 later) No, I've evaluated each new model in relation to my needs, and I've loved each one more then the last. I worked for many years in the wireless space, so I had ample opportunity to spend time on ios, android, symbian, badda OS, windows mobile, and each iteration of the aforementioned but I always came back to my BlackBerry. That's not to say the other platforms weren't formidable. It's not to say that from time to time other platforms didn't do things I'd like my BlackBerry to do. But as a whole, I preferred my BlackBerry. Nothing else suited me in the same way. And I still feel that way today, in fact more then ever. I realize that there are varying opinions on this.. even within our community, but in my personal opinion BlackBerry 10 is the best platform on the market. It's better then the competition and it's better then any and all iterations of BlackBerry OS before it. That's not to say that there aren't still a few features of the legacy OS I'd like back.. or that there aren't some cool things on other platforms.. but as a total sum of its parts it's the best OS available today for me and the things I do. That's doesn't mean it's the best for everyone, but I do think at the very least anyone who doesn't admit it can hold its own.. anyone who is unwilling to admit it's a good platform on its own merits.. has based their opinion on factors other then the OS itself.

Make no mistake, that doesn't mean everything is roses at BlackBerry... falling to admit that BlackBerry is in serious trouble would be deluding ourselves.. the simple fact is BlackBerry 10 isn't selling, and with every passing day the existing subscriber base is shrinking.. it's a dark place. But where Sith_Apprentince and I will disagree here, is that I'm not ready to say the lack of sales are a result of people voting with their wallets against the product. I believe it's a kind of chicken and egg situation..again, no one platform is for everyone, or ever will be. But in my opinion there are many more people out there who would love this platform if they gave it a chance.. the reason those people aren't buying is the state of the company, and the state of the company is a result of folks not buying.. hence the chicken/egg reference. There's no question things took too long to turn around. While I personally did enjoy my Bold 9900, I recognize that it wasn't in keeping with the technology available at the time. It still did, and still does today do things on a way that I prefer over other platforms, and I liked it, but it was 2 years late and even then didn't have other capabilities that users had come to expect in a post iPhone world.. the truth is BB10 should have been on the table at that time. Hindsight being 20/20 and all.. That of course led to declining market share, and fed a lot of the bad press that the company would eventually be known for.. once BlackBerry 10 was announced and then delayed.. many didn't think it would ever come to the market at all.. but luckily that wasn't the case, and it launched!

At that point, having used BB10, I certainly thought the initial uptake would have been a lot bigger.. I wasn't sure we would get a tone of converts from other platforms right off the bat.. I thought that would take a few years, but I certainly did think the majority of current blackberry owners would make the transition. Clearly that wasn't the case.. and I put a lot of blame there on what I consider to be a (excuse my language) **** poor marketing department at BlackBerry. We could discuss the company's marketing shortfalls for a full day and still have more to say but I digress.. still, after a lackluster launch I would have said BlackBerry will stay the course, the new devices will slowly build a following.. it'll be a long road, but the company will regain it's foothold as people realize the power of the platform..

Then the sale process was announced..

And while we didn't know it at the time, or rather didn't know the extent of the trouble the company was facing at the time, it was obviously a necessary step for a long term solution, but I believe it dealt a fatal blow to the short term success of BB10. As much as I praise the platform on its own merits I can't blame folks on other platforms, or even current legacy BlackBerry users for not given it a chance right now when that kind of uncertainty is facing the company.. why would you go out today and buy a 600+ dollar device from a company that as far as you know may not exist in a months time.. it's a valid concern. And I don't think there is anything that could be done that would increase sales right now. Not until the future of the company is known..

At this point we're in free fall.. operating expenses keep coming but nobody is buying..as I said. Understandably so in my opinion..but then fast forward a few weeks, we've now received the Letter of intent from Fairfax.. I had mixed feelings at the time. As a shareholder of course I'm extremely disappointed in a $9 per share valuation but I'm realizing for the first time that for the board to have accepted such an offer the company must be in worse shape then we thought.. those on the inside must see that without the buyout there's no way forward. So taking off my shareholder cap, and thinking as a user of the product who just wants to see the company succeed I'm happy there's an offer. My thoughts at that point, (and obviously I was wrong) were that this was going to be the only offer. But valuation aside, I felt a little sigh of relief.. I'm of the opinion that Prem Watsa intends to keep the company whole, and contrary to certain opinions I'm not really very concerned with Fairfax not being able to fund their deal. I don't think a man like Prem puts out an offer like this without knowing he's going to be able to back it up. So for the moment I was content. I was braced for a rough few months but I expected a private company to emerge in the new year, for the dust and bad press to settle and as it became clear that the company was here to stay, people would begin to give the platform a chance, and once having given it a fair evaluation would grow to love it. Sales would follow and slowly but surely market share would rise.

So everything is bubble gum and unicorns right? Until other potential suitors started coming out of the woodwork.. now if I put my shareholders cap back on.. this is great news.. every day a potential new buyer emerges from the shadows.. this can only drive the price up.. BUT the catch is what do these buyers have planned for BlackBerry? We are right back to the unknown and that's poison for sales.

We've already discussed Prem Watsa and Fairfax.. but a quick recap: I don't like the price.. but I believe if that goes ahead the company will remain whole and will continue to operate more or less as we know it. At least for now. I'm worried a little on regards to the statements made where they intend to focus on enterprise.. not because that's a problem for me, as I'd still buy them as enterprise devices.. whether or not they are available to average consumers wouldn't phase me.. I've never bought a phone because everyone else had one. I bought them because I like them. BUT I see this as the road to failure in the very near future.. we'll talk more about why later.

Google.. I could easily copy/paste my colleagues post above here.. I agree on every point. A Google play would be purely for patents, and vehicle infotainment and connectivity resources. There's simply no scenario where BB10 continues production post a Google acquisition they simply don't need it. That's not to say that android is long for this world, I believe google plans to launch chrome OS for mobile within the next few years and do away with the fragmented android operating system, but that's a post for another day. Bottom line. A Google purchase means bye bye BlackBerry 10 and that's not an outcome I favor.

Cisco... I don't claim to know enough about about cisco's foray into mobile by way of SE Android to comment on money and time spent or its likeness to succeed. For that reason my feelings are mixed on a cisco acquisition.. I like cisco as a company, I use their products. If they are eyeing blackberry as a whole with plans to take what it does best, improve upon it and add their name recognition (a la linksys) I'll be in line to by the first Cisco BlackBerry 10 device.. but if the plan is to strip patents, implement certain features into SE Android and scrap the remainder.. obviously not a favorable outcome.

Dell, IBM and Lenovo I'm going to reserve comment on for now. I simply don't know enough about what the I've tried and what their plans might be to comment.

Amazon however.. here I'm going to disagree with the above. Yes amazon has a tablet.. (coincidentally or maybe not, it looks an awful lot like the Playbook) and that tablet runs android.. but they've done everything possible to differentiate it from being an android... right down to running their own app store. I don't see Amazon as being invested in the android ecosystem, and I believe THE reason they would be interested is because they see the value in BlackBerry 10 as a OS they could call their own. I don't think the name BlackBerry would survive an amazon acquisition.. but I think amazon would launch phones and tablets under their brand rocking what we would recognize as the BlackBerry 10 OS.. I think you'd see the contents of BlackBerry World merged into the amazon app store.. and while we'd loose our identity I think for the most part we'd keep our OS.. would that be enough to get people to take it seriously and evaluate it with renewed enthusiasm? That's a very good question, but if so it may be a way forward.

One question, of which the answer could affect many of these outcomes is will the government of Canada block the sale of the company to a foreign interest. As a Canadian I have a different opinion on this then Sith does.. and I can tell you that yes they do have that power, and they like to exercise it. In fact it's not even a question if the government having to step in a 'block' it as most people put it. That implies the government would have to take usual action to stop the sale.. no, the board and/or the buyer needs to apply to the government of Canada for approval of the sale. A ruling is required one way or the other.. and traditionally they have exercised they're ability to keep these types of high profile company's within the country. Now some will say they've already stated they wouldn't interfere, which is true. But I believe that's been taken out of context. The question posed at that time was whether the government would invest in BlackBerry.. a possible money making venture for them, but also a bail out of sorts. That was more or less taken off the table.. (although some Canadian government funds could still be part of the Fairfax deal) but that in no way means they intend to open the doors wide for a foreign take over. Others will be quick to say they wouldn't block it if the other option is the company going bankrupt and the loss of all those jobs.. and that's true. BUT we aren't talking about one foreign buyer. We are talking about an offer on the table for a Canadian fund, and potential competing offers from another Canadian group (Mike L) and various foreign entities. I strongly believe that unless the sovereign offers vanish, the foreign suitors are out if the running.

I just realized I almost forgot to discuss Mike Lazeridas's potential offer! This one is perhaps the most interesting as it has both the potential to be very good.. and very bad. There are a lot of mixed opinions on Mike.. and whether or not he is the man for the job.. honestly I don't know. I certainly think he is brilliant. I think what he did with RIM originally was pure genius.. he built mobile email into something we all take for granted and use every day out of nothing. Truly the father of mobile computing. BUT he also became complacent thinking the wants and needs of the consumer would never change. He remained too focused on enterprise and failed to adapt quick enough.. it's not that he couldn't, it's that he didn't believe he had to. So the question now is has he learned from that? Now that he is on the outside, can he see what needs to be done ? If so.. I believe he could pick up the rains and take the company to new levels. He has done it before and he can do it again. It's almost a cliche now, but it could be a Steve Jobs esque story where the prodigal CEO once forced out returns with renewed vigor to save the company and not only restores it to its former glory but surpasses past performance..they're never going to have 99% market share again.. that's just not a reality now. They aren't the only player in the game, but in terms of revenue.. The other option of course is that Mike is still focused on the enterprise sector and sees that as the return to profitability.. if that's the way forward.. once could still make a case that Mike would be the guy to do it. But is that the way forward? I expressed some concerns with that above when I discussed Prems statements.. personally I just don't see that as a long term play. I think the days of an enterprise device are over. BYOD is the way of the future. Let's say they build a device nobody can deny is THE BEST enterprise communication tool on the market.. that's great, but everyday company's stop providing phones to they're employees. It's happening right now.. but within a few years it's going to be all that's happening. Sure there will be a few hold outs.. governments.. police forces.. but nowhere near the numbers a company would need to stay afloat not even as a niche player. (Maybe as a branch of a larger player) I just don't see it. I think if BlackBerry intends to be the leader in enterprise devices, they need to be a strong presence in the consumer market. There's no question it's tough to compete in that market. But they need to be on retail shelves where a consumer can purchase a BlackBerry device use it and bring it with them to work.

Lastly, there's been a lot of talk of shutting down or selling off the hardware business and continuing as a software company.. which I just don't think is going to happen. Please don't misunderstand me.. I'm not opposed to this outcome.. I like my official BlackBerry hardware, I'd like to see it continue, but I could get behind Blackbery 10 on other hardware. I've got to think that if success is achieved no longer having in house hardware would be a sore spot.. apple has theirs.. Microsoft and Google spent millions acquiring their own in recent years. So the value is known. BUT that aside.. let's say it was the right play.. while I like an in-house solutions if my choice is either BlackBerry hardware or the BlackBerry 10 OS but not both.. I'm certainly going to choose the software. This is obviously more geared to one of the scenarios where the company goes private.. as in with Prem or Mike's deal.. as obviously if we're are talking one of the buyout and strip options it's more or less irrelevant.. but let's say that's what Prem has in mind. He takes the company private.. he shutters the hardware division and he wants to partner.. maybe with HTC.. maybe LG.. even Samsung.. IBM.. Lenovo.. who doesn't even matter in my hypothetical the questions is why would any of these companies choose to license BlackBerry 10 today when it's failed to gain market traction. I just don't see it. That may have been a play last year.. shutter the hardware division and launch the new OS on other hardware.. let them do the marketing. It's working with BBM, Samsung has taken the lead to promote it! But now that it's been launched and failed to generate that enthusiasm from the market I don't see any of these OEM's picking up the licenses. I'm not debating the hardware division is loosing money. I'm not saying licensing might never be a play in the future. But I am saying for the moment.. for the next few years even.. they need to fund the hardware division.. maybe even more so and start subsidising phones.. in order to get bb10 into the market place. This is all post going private of course when the company can be seen as stable and people can be convinced that the company isn't going anywhere.. sales can ramp up.. THEN a few years down the road once the platform has proven itself.. the app store is full.. THEN and ONLY THEN it could be licensed out to others either in addition to, or instead of the BlackBerry hardware division.

Wow.. yup thumbs are bleeding! I typed this entire thing on my Z10 btw!

I'm sure there's a tonne I've forgotten, but this is a great start and I hope is going to be a great discussion! I look forward to seeing everyone thoughts and responding both to those who agree and disagree with me. More then anything I look forward to seeing the outcome of all this.. it will be interesting to see who if any of us turns out to be right.

Please don't let Sith_Aprentice and I's dubiously long and insightful posts be in vein.. let's keep the discussion going!


Posted via CB10

[BigBadWulf]

*space reserved for commentary upon completion of War and Peace*

[howarmat]

^^ TLDR

Anyway I will throw some quick thoughts in here also.

The hardware division to me is too much dead weight at this point. Yeah it makes them revenue but at the same time it’s dragging them down. They have had several write downs for hardware for OS7, Playbook and now BB10 devices. That means pretty much all products that they have brought out in the last 3 years and that is not a trend you want to keep having.

So what does that leave? Software and services of course!

BB10 is a great start of a platform. Given the time it needs it would mature into something special but the way it’s going right now they don’t have that time or the money to see it through. HTC, Sony and maybe Lenovo could pick up the hardware sector and run BB10 on their devices. I love the hardware that these companies make for their carious products. They are better suited to handle this end IMO. BlackBerry now will have this “burden” off their books and they can focus on just the software end and adding features to BB10. This wouldn’t be instant and would take some time but it’s better than continuing down the road they are on now.

They just launched BBM as a cross platform service now also. Down the line this could also lead to a revenue stream. Whether it’s from premium features on the iOS and Android apps to companies paying for featured channels and such I don’t know but I am sure this is already in the plans somewhere. There was talk of spinning of BBM as its own company among some people on CB but I just don’t see that on the horizon quite yet.

The most obvious asset BlackBerry has is its NOC and everything that comes with it. BES services need to take off. They need to push this to every company out there harder than they are now. They talk of the 20k trials but not the actual uptake of the service. They need to find out why the uptake of the service is not there and then fix what those issues or features that are needed are. I know they are also talking about cloud services and that would be another nice feather in the cap for them. There is quite of bit of undiscovered potential with their NOC I think. BES is only part of what it can do I’m sure.

QNX services are another great service that BlackBerry has. We have seen quite a few advancements this year from that group and I think this will continue. Tying in BB10 services with the car could make it much more appealing for hardware manufactures. Every little bit helps. QNX’s place in the mobile industry is great for the future.

As for the mobile computing tagline they have been throwing around. It will all have to be done without the hardware control that they probably wanted in my opinion. Not that it’s a bad thing. The software is what has to tie in all together and that is still all BlackBerry. They just have to have the vision and follow thru with it. I am not even sure they fully know what that vision is.

All of this would lead to a much smaller company. A smaller company that can hopefully become focused and churn out a quality product that is polished. They can’t have the delays that have plagued them in the past. Sadly I think this also means that Thor and company must get the boot. They seem to need a whole new crew. I always thought Dan Dodge needed to be in a bigger chair and I am sure there are some more people that can be brought in from the outside that have not been with BlackBerry since the beginning to breed new life in them. I don’t mind Mike L coming back in some capacity. He was always focused on the enterprise market and that is where it appears BlackBerry is going to focus. So I think that he could fit somewhere in the mix but just not front and center like before.

Marketing is obviously another portion that needs completely gutted and brought back as a new fresh look at what BB can offer everyone. You can let the Sonys and HTCs handle their marketing of the devices they sell. BlackBerry needs to focus on the wooing the corporate culture once again as Apple is more than creeping in on that secture.

As for who can actually pull off any of the above… Prem is probably the only that can actually do this. At $9 it’s a slap in the face of most shareholders probably but it’s just the state that the company is in. I hope he does the company well if he does take it private. I don’t think his intentions are to sell it off in pieces like some of the other companies that are looking at BB. No one wants that to happen and no one wants BB to fail and no longer exist. I think we all want to see a new BlackBerry.

So there are my armchair thoughts for the most part. Hope they made some sense lol

[Sith_Apprentice]

Great posts so far gents, and I look forward to more! I also look forward to hearing questions from the members, and seeing where this thread goes. That being said, game on!

[Sith_Apprentice]

No one should feel shy, feel free to jump in on all or part of any of the mod posts. Ask questions, make comments, get clarification, etc. Remember, this is all in fun!

[just_luc]

No one should feel shy, feel free to jump in on all or part of any of the mod posts. Ask questions, make comments, get clarification, etc. Remember, this is all in fun!

They must think we're scary or something Sith!

[Bbnivende]

Sith asks, "BlackBerry also has a ton of people that have not made the switch from BB7 to BB10. Why haven�t these users upgraded? What is missing from BB10 on why these existing uses do not want to upgrade? "

My answer is why would I ? If I want to keep with QWERTY is a 3.1 inch screen big enough to make me want to switch from a 2.8 inch screen (with a trackpad). No
Say I want an All touch phone - I have gone all this time with very few App's with my BBOS device - why wouldn't I want what Android /Apple offers ?

I do think there is still a reasonable sized niche market for BlackBerry devices with physical keyboards but they need to have a good sized screen. 3.1 or even 3.5 inches is just not enough.

[just_luc]

...I do think there is still a reasonable sized niche market for BlackBerry devices with physical keyboards but they need to have a good sized screen. 3.1 or even 3.5 inches is just not enough.

My question to you then would be what's the right size? and how big is this phone going to be to sport both a keyboard and this giant touch screen?

[Sith_Apprentice]

Sith asks, "BlackBerry also has a ton of people that have not made the switch from BB7 to BB10. Why haven�t these users upgraded? What is missing from BB10 on why these existing uses do not want to upgrade? "

My answer is why would I ? If I want to keep with QWERTY is a 3.1 inch screen big enough to make me want to switch from a 2.8 inch screen (with a trackpad). No
Say I want an All touch phone - I have gone all this time with very few App's with my BBOS device - why wouldn't I want what Android /Apple offers ?

I do think there is still a reasonable sized niche market for BlackBerry devices with physical keyboards but they need to have a good sized screen. 3.1 or even 3.5 inches is just not enough.

I agree with Luc, what size QWERTY screen would be good? Do you want a 4" screen plus a keyboard? Or landscape QWERTY?

I agree there is not a lot compelling for BlackBerry by itself right now. That's why I said they should close their hardware department.

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

My question to you then would be what's the right size? and how big is this phone going to be to sport both a keyboard and this giant touch screen?

Ross Cheriton (N4BB) came up with a fantasy render which had a 2.2 X 2.9 inch screen and that works out to 3.64 inches on the diagonal. This design is realistic. You just have to look at what other phone manufacturer's can do (i.e. Sony) . This render is shorter than a z10.

http://n4bb.com/blackberry-drive-res...ical-keyboard/

Getting more aggressive - Z30 Width . A screen of 2.4 inches X 3.1 inches = 3.96 inches on the diagonal and yet would still have a smaller footprint length wise than a Z30.

I am sure that such a phone is possible . The Q10 is the result of the mistaken belief that a QWERTY should have a square screen. If that is the case the QWERTY phone has a very limited future.

[Sith_Apprentice]

Ross Cheriton (N4BB) came up with a fantasy render which had a 2.2 X 2.9 inch screen and that works out to 3.64 inches on the diagonal. This design is realistic. You just have to look at what other phone manufacturer's can do (i.e. Sony) . This render is shorter than a z10.

Getting more aggressive - Z30 Width . A screen of 2.4 inches X 3.1 inches = 3.96 inches on the diagonal and yet would still have a smaller footprint length wise than a Z30.

I am sure that such a phone is possible . The Q10 is the result of the mistaken belief that a QWERTY should have a square screen. If that is the case the QWERTY phone has a very limited future.

I wholeheartedly agree the square screen is a mistake. Should be the same aspect ratio as the Z10! Z30 should be the same as well (at minimum), or 1080p.

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

I wholeheartedly agree the square screen is a mistake. Should be the same aspect ratio as the Z10! Z30 should be the same as well (at minimum), or 1080p.

Posted via CB10

The upper design limit of a square screen with really thin bezels is probably 3.5 inches on the diagonal.

[Sith_Apprentice]

The upper design limit of a square screen with really thin bezels is probably 3.5 inches on the diagonal.

It doesn't have to be square. The device could be elongated vertically. Easily could have the same pixel ratio that way.

Posted via CB10

[just_luc]

I hadn't seen that render. It does look good. I could see something like that as a potential successor to the Q10, although a little big for me personally. But then again I'm on the all touch bandwagon now. I don't see myself ever going back to a qwerty after my Z10.

Posted via CB10

[Sith_Apprentice]

BBnivende ,
Thank you for your comments, questions, and replies!

Everyone, please keep them coming As you can see, we dont bite! (well I dont, cant speak for Luc)

[just_luc]

BBnivende ,
Thank you for your comments, questions, and replies!

Everyone, please keep them coming As you can see, we dont bite! (well I dont, cant speak for Luc)

I do, but only if asked politely.

Posted via CB10

[howarmat]

I don know for sure but i think when you start getting in to designs like that you start having balanace issues. Granted it can be done but its hard because of where the center of gravity seems to be on those type of devices. I have played with some android keyboard devices that were big screen with keyboard and the balance was always a little off. I know that no one else have really taken on this market in a very serious manner and BB would be the only one to do it.

BB at this point probably cant experiment to much at this point. They are dropping down to four devices and im sure that means 2 touch and 2 keyboard and probably 1 high 1 low end for each but I guess we will see. They might end up dropping the hardware for all we know. The next couple weeks will be interesting!

[zocster]

Wow, long, very long posts, and I am not going to even try and compete..

At this stage we are all just wishing, speculating etc for what is to come n 4 Nov.

I for one, am wishing for the company to stay as a whole, and keep on moving on. Developing, and producing every year 2 of each, touch screen and qwerty devices high end and mid range.

I have used bb for years, since os 4.xx on the 7105. Have played with Wp and wm devices.

I just can not see me using anything else other than bb as my daily driver. The more I poke around other platform the least I am interested in using them for business.

Bottom line is, who ever they sold it to, better be keeping the company together and let bb10 evolve.

Sent from my zipaligned and deodexed own custom ROM on HTC One X

[Sith_Apprentice]

I don know for sure but i think when you start getting in to designs like that you start having balanace issues. Granted it can be done but its hard because of where the center of gravity seems to be on those type of devices. I have played with some android keyboard devices that were big screen with keyboard and the balance was always a little off. I know that no one else have really taken on this market in a very serious manner and BB would be the only one to do it.


BB at this point probably cant experiment to much at this point. They are dropping down to four devices and im sure that means 2 touch and 2 keyboard and probably 1 high 1 low end for each but I guess we will see. They might end up dropping the hardware for all we know. The next couple weeks will be interesting!

Balance would be difficult on a larger QWERTY device. It is possible to have it weighted so the bottom is heavier, and that should help some. But you are right, other than BB, no one has really gotten the QWERTY devices correct. That is probably a good thing and helped stem the bleeding some.

[Sith_Apprentice]

Wow, long, very long posts, and I am not going to even try and compete..

At this stage we are all just wishing, speculating etc for what is to come n 4 Nov.

I for one, am wishing for the company to stay as a whole, and keep on moving on. Developing, and producing every year 2 of each, touch screen and qwerty devices high end and mid range.

I have used bb for years, since os 4.xx on the 7105. Have played with Wp and wm devices.

I just can not see me using anything else other than bb as my daily driver. The more I poke around other platform the least I am interested in using them for business.

Bottom line is, who ever they sold it to, better be keeping the company together and let bb10 evolve.

Sent from my zipaligned and deodexed own custom ROM on HTC One X

Not a competition Zocster, we welcome all inputs. Please, definitely share your thoughts, we would love to have them.

[howarmat]

Balance would be difficult on a larger QWERTY device. It is possible to have it weighted so the bottom is heavier, and that should help some. But you are right, other than BB, no one has really gotten the QWERTY devices correct. That is probably a good thing and helped stem the bleeding some.

agreed, if android ever gets a QWERTY correct it will be interesting to see what happens. And while the counterweight idea was a though I had, adding needless mass to a phone just doesnt seem right lol

[Sith_Apprentice]

agreed, if android ever gets a QWERTY correct it will be interesting to see what happens. And while the counterweight idea was a though I had, adding needless mass to a phone just doesnt seem right lol

I can definitely understand why you wouldn't want needless weight, phones are all about being thinner and lighter. Other than using lighter materials for the display, in relation to the rest of the device, I don't much see an alternative however.

Posted via CB10

[Sith_Apprentice]

So I am going to add a bit to my post (and I will edit it when complete), but I want to talk about one of BlackBerry's current customer strong holds. Enterprise and Government are what made BlackBerry what they were, and with certain ways of thinking, can do it again. I will post it in thread, but also add to my original. Stay tuned!