[Slash82]

Hi friends,

some thoughts about BB10.
As the title says - the signs ain't good for BB10 - but if it's just some kind of "misunderstanding" of where BlackBerry is trying to go?
In past John Chen said something about "going away from the consumer market".

And maybe that is what happens with BB10 right now?

What if the strategy is just to serve Enterprise costumers (like banks, governments, oil companies etc.)?
None the less BB10 is unbeatable in terms of security and nothing comes close.
So that would only mean secure end-to-end communication - nothing more and nothing less.
Most apps wouldn't be needed - and with that in perspective games are not needed at all.
BlackBerry might only focus on security upgrades and "just" providing secure communication?
And with the focus only on that - they would save money?

For the rest (= consumer/non-commerical users) Android shall be "good enough" to serve "normal" people.
The "Android version" might be good enough for the average smartphone user and is still more secure than any other Android device on the market (with upcoming Android M).

So that would mean that BB10 ain't really dead, but at the same time it would not be the "mobile computing platform for the next decade" - as BlackBerry said it to be.
Until there is not alternative to BB10 for some BES costumers, it's kept "alive" (kinda).

On the other hand, it's some of BlackBerry's own fault, that hardware sells dropped after Z10 and Q10.
Chen made fun of "devices being sexy" - but that's what BB10 devices would have needed after the first ones!
They just "wrapped up" existing (now 3 year old) hardware (internals) in different packages - same mistake, they did with the legacy devices.
Don't get me wrong - Leap & Z30 are amazing devices - but were/are they amazing enough to switch from a Galaxy 6 or iPhone 6 to them?
-I don't think so. And some kind of "hardware specs" always thrills people to switch. I also think people would fall in love with OS10 after using after getting used to it.

But with that latest news about app developers and what Chen stated at CES BlackBerry is losing credibility - even from someone like me (been using BlackBerry only(!) for over 11 years - also through the hard times in 2011-2013).

What do you think about that?

[conite]

What if the strategy is just to serve Enterprise costumers (like banks, governments, oil companies etc.)?
None the less BB10 is unbeatable in terms of security and nothing comes close.
So that would only mean secure end-to-end communication - nothing more and nothing less.
Most apps wouldn't be needed - and with that in perspective games are not needed at all.
BlackBerry might only focus on security upgrades and "just" providing secure communication?
And with the focus only on that - they would save money?

The only issue I see with this is that BlackBerry is pushing very hard to acquire the security certifications for its Priv, and is going to great lengths to market it to business.

BlackBerry has also made a huge play with its BES/Android for Work EMM solution.

In the near-term, I see them keeping BB10 for ultra-secure clients, but ultimately do not see them supporting two OSes.

[Slash82]

The only issue I see with this is that BlackBerry is pushing very hard to acquire the security certifications for its Priv, and is going to great lengths to market it to business.

BlackBerry has also made a huge play with its BES/Android for Work EMM solution.

You are right.
But do you think that they really get it to that point?
I'm mean with Google as the "big player" in that - it might be impossible for some companies to adopt that?
Google would always have access to the data on the devices - there are surely some "critical information" which are "too important" for that.
Just think of internal government communications of different countries?

[JulesDB]

By going Android they are accelerating the selling of handset division as the stakeholder wants.

They just are trying to demonstrate that they can reverse the lower sales trend with Google's OS. Obviously they forget that BlackBerry10 is the only value they actually have.

Anyway the five million handset goal is too far, even for the Priv: 100.000 or 500.000 is nowhere near that number and also they actually know it.

Handset division is a dead man walking, expect that the company will be split in two next year, leaving Priv's buyers left in the cold as BB 10 are now.

BlackBerry is too slow and isn't a loyal company and people don't forget.

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I think if 500K a quarter (and still falling) is all they can count as an "enterprise" market.... that it won't support the continued development of a very different and unique OS like BB10. It won't support the R&D needed for new hardware. It won't support the cost of unique hardware drivers. It won't support the cost of being a Global provider. It won't get support from Carriers.

And I think that at some level, Enterprise also uses Apps... so there is no reason to go telling developers, what they are telling them.

The real problem BlackBerry has right now is that the PRIV isn't really good enough for those same "enterprise" customers. Have to hope that Marshmallow allows them to better secure the PRIV.

[conite]

You are right.
But do you think that they really get it to that point?
I'm mean with Google as the "big player" in that - it might be impossible for some companies to adopt that?
Google would always have access to the data on the devices - there are surely some "critical information" which is "too important" for that.
Just think of internal government communications of different countries?

Like Chen has said, there are not enough customers in the ultra-secure sector to keep BB10 viable.

So where does that leave things? I'm not sure. In the end, I don't see this small user base paying thousands of dollars per device to keep BB10 going, so they WILL have to choose something else.

Apple and Android for Work each have their own advantages. The two big boys will have to battle it out.

BlackBerry can win either way with BES and Good. Priv would be gravy.

[Slash82]

The real problem BlackBerry has right now is that the PRIV isn't really good enough for those same "enterprise" customers. Have to hope that Marshmallow allows them to better secure the PRIV.

The Priv might be a good device on it's own to generate some money (on the side), but the price tag of +800 bucks is just madness to give it a "try" (coming from a another brand). When you spend that amount of money you really have laser-focus on what you wanna have or what you are fan of. IMO that's the biggest problem with the Priv!

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

By going Android they are accelerating the selling of handset division as the stakeholder wants.

Posted via CB10

There is no handset division to sell... They have sold all the factories, Chen said the design work will be subbed out, so there isn't a BlackBerry design team anymore. And production and inventory is already handled by 3rd parties. Other than the name (which is now also the company name) and some patents (which Chen would probably rather license)... there isn't anything to sell.

If Chen decided to close the hardware "division".... the announcement will probably come long after the last BlackBerry was produced, and close to when the last one is sold.

[Slash82]

Like Chen has said, there are not enough customers in the ultra-secure sector to keep BB10 viable.

So where does that leave things? I'm not sure. In the end, I don't see this small user base paying thousands of dollars per device to keep BB10 going, so they WILL have to choose something else.

Apple and Android for Work each have their own advantages. The two big boys will have to battle it out.

BlackBerry can win either way with BES and Good. Priv would be gravy.

That is really some of the worst scenarios that could (and even might) happen.
BlackBerry might kicked themselves out of that game.
As I wrote in my initial post - BlackBerry didn't really hear what fans or people wanted to have.
This also was their biggest problem in the past.
They threw out devices and wanted people to like them - it's just ignorant to say "we have the past platform - buy it!"

How could they think that someone with the latest Samsung Galaxy or an iPhone 6x would switch to a Leap or Z30?
It must be clear that sales drop. Even after presenting the Priv it took way too long to throw it on the market and IMO it would have had way more impact if came in 2 versions: Android AND BB10.
The prototype (they showed off) was running OS10.
I left the Passport and Classic out on purpose, because that's a different league.

[JulesDB]

There is no handset division to sell... They have sold all the factories, Chen said the design work will be subbed out, so there isn't a BlackBerry design team anymore. And production and inventory is already handled by 3rd parties.

If Chen decided to close the hardware "division".... the announcement will probably come long after the last BlackBerry was produced, and close to when the last one is sold.

OK this leads me to think that the "hardware division" as we call it, is just a step to the end


Posted via CB10

[lord_hibiskus]

Just a thought: if BYOD is future of business comunication, then there is no way that bb10 can succeed, cause you'll need to have 2 phones instead of one.


Posted via CB10

[GadgetTravel]

Just a thought: if BYOD is future of business comunication, then there is no way that bb10 can succeed, cause you'll need to have 2 phones instead of one.


Posted via CB10

How does that make sense??

[Bbnivende]

I think if 500K a quarter (and still falling) is all they can count as an "enterprise" market.... that it won't support the continued development of a very different and unique OS like BB10. It won't support the R&D needed for new hardware. It won't support the cost of unique hardware drivers. It won't support the cost of being a Global provider. It won't get support from Carriers.

And I think that at some level, Enterprise also uses Apps... so there is no reason to go telling developers, what they are telling them.

The real problem BlackBerry has right now is that the PRIV isn't really good enough for those same "enterprise" customers. Have to hope that Marshmallow allows them to better secure the PRIV.

I do not think that a slider ( expensive one at that) is any more attractive to Enterprise than it is to consumers. The Vienna will have more traction than the PRIV ( as did the 9900 in its day) but BlackBerry needs to market an all touch. I am doubting that there is a five million a year market for high end PKB'S .

[Slash82]

I do not think that a slider ( expensive one at that) is any more attractive to Enterprise than it is to consumers. The Vienna will have more traction than the PRIV ( as did the 9900 in its day) but BlackBerry needs to market an all touch. I am doubting that there is a five million a year market for high end PKB'S .

I see it the same way - I don't really know where the money for marketing goes.
Most of the projects are kinda stupid.

I would love to see some TV commercials like the one they made for the Leap on YouTube:



In a shorter version - that would get some attraction.

[muellerto]

What do you think about that?

Let me speculate what they do:

1. They kick Android software out of BB World now.
2. They reduce the remaining native software in BB World to get a stock of quality core apps. This will finally reduce both the user and the developer base significantly.
3. They close BB World for public use, also for uncertified developers.
4. The last two dumb die hard BB10 users are informed by hand written letters from Chen himself that the horse is dead now.
5. Let's call the thing BB11 now. BB11 has the following features:
   
   1. No Android Runtime anymore.
   2. More security software integrated into the OS.
   3. Perhaps only on BES to keep the key in hand.
   4. No broad app development anymore. Only hundred core apps managed by RIM himself or certified partners and guaranteed to be conform to self defined standards in security, privacy, stability, quality and look & feel.
   
   
6. They propagate this closed solution for long term use for governments, military, organizations, companies and let them pay, security and privacy cost money.

Note that this goes conform with efforts of nearly every government on earth to enforce mass surveillance. This strategy could also be one reason why there's no interest at all to make BB10 open source or to sell it to others. No way.

[Slash82]

Let me speculate what they do:

1. They kick Android software out of BB World now.
2. They reduce the remaining native software in BB World to get a stock of quality core apps. This will finally reduce both the user and the developer base significantly.
3. They close BB World for public use, also for uncertified developers.
4. The last two dumb die hard BB10 users are informed by hand written letters from Chen himself that the horse is dead now.
5. Let's call the thing BB11 now. BB11 has the following features:
   
   1. No Android Runtime anymore.
   2. More security software integrated into the OS.
   3. Perhaps only on BES to keep the key in hand.
   4. No broad app development anymore. Only hundred core apps managed by RIM himself or certified partners and guaranteed to be conform to self defined standards in security, privacy, stability, quality and look & feel.
   
   
6. They propagate this closed solution for long term use for governments, military, organizations, companies and let them pay, security and privacy cost money.

Note that this goes conform with efforts of nearly every government on earth to enforce mass surveillance. This strategy could also be one reason why there's no interest at all to make BB10 open source or to sell it to others. No way.

Interesting point of view - this comes close what I wrote in my initial post.
But in some more radical way.

If that really is the roadmap for the future it's kinda sad to be (me included) one of the "last 2 dumb die hard fans".
Doesn't matter what BlackBerry claims how "private" and "secure" their Android version might be - data will be collected from Google and you will be part of their statistics.

I might be one of a few people, but until now I handled to stay away from Google services or other data "thefts".
Sure, just by surfing the internet you will always leave steps (including to Google analytics) - but the amount really differs.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I do not think that a slider ( expensive one at that) is any more attractive to Enterprise than it is to consumers. The Vienna will have more traction than the PRIV ( as did the 9900 in its day) but BlackBerry needs to market an all touch. I am doubting that there is a five million a year market for high end PKB'S .

Heard that about the Classic and the LEAP.... From what I see the Enterprise market that onces loved the CURVE, has changed. They have been willing to spurge for the iPhone, so price isn't as important as features in today's market.

The problem for BlackBerry is their Enterprise has pretty much moved on... what's left is highly regulated industries and government. Which I don't think BlackBerry has a Android solution for yet. And so far BlackBerry hasn't shown that there really is much of a market for any PKB devices.... Buth then if they go all touch, how do the justify the higher prices they have to charge due to them just being re-sellers of 3rd party hardware? I doubt we see an all touch device for BlackBerry again..... at lest not unless they tweak Android enough to differentiate it and do it in a way it becomes popular.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Let me speculate what they do:

1. They kick Android software out of BB World now.
2. They reduce the remaining native software in BB World to get a stock of quality core apps. This will finally reduce both the user and the developer base significantly.
3. They close BB World for public use, also for uncertified developers.
4. The last two dumb die hard BB10 users are informed by hand written letters from Chen himself that the horse is dead now.
5. Let's call the thing BB11 now. BB11 has the following features:
   
   1. No Android Runtime anymore.
   2. More security software integrated into the OS.
   3. Perhaps only on BES to keep the key in hand.
   4. No broad app development anymore. Only hundred core apps managed by RIM himself or certified partners and guaranteed to be conform to self defined standards in security, privacy, stability, quality and look & feel.
   
   
6. They propagate this closed solution for long term use for governments, military, organizations, companies and let them pay, security and privacy cost money.

Note that this goes conform with efforts of nearly every government on earth to enforce mass surveillance. This strategy could also be one reason why there's no interest at all to make BB10 open source or to sell it to others. No way.

Who would profit from allowing BB10 to go open source? BlackBerry doesn't have a way to generate income using that kind of model like Google did, and Android isn't really all that open source, Google still "develops" the OS (at GREAT cost) they just allow others to use it (like BlackBerry did).

Why would anyone buy BB10? There are dozens of OS out there they could be turned into a mobile OS... But what BlackBerry and Microsoft have PROVED to everyone, is that a MOBILE ECOSYSTEM is what makes a mobile platform.... no the OS.

And sadly.... there just isn't a large enough pool of governments, military and highly regulated organizations out there to support BB10 (and the other security products in the market already), must less the "core" apps that these organizations would still want. I doubt BB10 morphs into some "security platform", it's just going to fade away.....

[muellerto]

Why would anyone buy BB10? There are dozens of OS out there they could be turned into a mobile OS...

May be, but BB10 *IS* already a mobile OS.

But what BlackBerry and Microsoft have PROVED to everyone, is that a MOBILE ECOSYSTEM is what makes a mobile platform.... no the OS.

This is what the mass market tells us. But it's different if you take a step beside. Governments do not have a need for games or music players. Military and intelligence services write oftenly their own very secret software. Business companies need some standard apps: the Hub must work well, the Contacts and the Calendar - these three are already more than the half of the needed functionality. With Docs2Go and a PDF reader you have 80%.

And sadly.... there just isn't a large enough pool of governments, military and highly regulated organizations out there to support BB10 (and the other security products in the market already)

This depends on some things. If the EU authorities in Brussels could decide to use such a system this would have a lot of influence on other european governments. The next scandal about NSA mischief in Europe is only a question of time. It is not an accident that RIM and not Google bought SecuSmart.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

May be, but BB10 *IS* already a mobile OS.
This is what the mass market tells us. But it's different if you take a step beside. Governments do not have a need for games or music players. Military and intelligence services write oftenly their own very secret software. Business companies need some standard apps: the Hub must work well, the Contacts and the Calendar - these three are already more than the half of the needed functionality. With Docs2Go and a PDF reader you have 80%.
This depends on some things. If the EU authorities in Brussels could decide to use such a system this would have a lot of influence on other european governments. The next scandal about NSA mischief in Europe is only a question of time. It is not an accident that RIM and not Google bought SecuSmart.

Old argument, where are all these governments and corporate customers.... right now! At what point do you expect they'll suddenly want what BlackBerry has? BB10 is a mobile OS, but an OS still requires development if it is to be used on newer hardware with newer features... the current sales will not support this...

One of the big reason I think the US government moved away from BlackBerry. They didn't want to be tied to one supplier or one network system. The BES outages back in 2011 (what if a terrorist understood this weak link) and then BlackBerry's own finical problems where a major concern. I imagine that they weren't the only ones that considered using BlackBerry as a "RISK".

I agree that BB10 tied with BES with the SecuSmart options... makes for a very secure system. Maybe if they sold $3000 phones, BlackBerry could afford to keep developing a "special" version of BB10 (we wouldn't have access to it).

Or maybe all is as it seems... BlackBerry is moving on.

[Soulstream]

This depends on some things. If the EU authorities in Brussels could decide to use such a system this would have a lot of influence on other european governments. The next scandal about NSA mischief in Europe is only a question of time. It is not an accident that RIM and not Google bought SecuSmart.

The problem I see is that I've heard this "BB10 will continue because government/whatever security agency need it" here on CB for a long time now, and still BB10 bring in no profit for BB. And BB is not a charity, it must generate profit. In my book the argument about BB10 continuing just because governments need it is more like wishful thinking (mixed with a little bit of hope) from people who want BB10 to continue.

[LuxuryTouringZone]

Bad signs for BB10, but what if BB10 is not kill?

[bakron1]

I have always been a person who doesn't sugar coat stuff or put band aids on a problem just to prolong the enviable. This is in my nature as a business person.

Blackberry is company with shareholders and has to be able to generate a revenue stream to remain a viable entity. That's basic business concepts 101.

I think they made the right choice by introducing an Android based product. The dynamics of this industry has changed dramatically and are not the same as it was in 2006 when they had the majority of the market share.

If OS10 doesn't generate the revenue to be able to sustain itself, then the company has to make the decision wether to continue to support it.

That's just basic concepts folks for any business whether your making smartphones or candy bars. Myself, I love the Blackberry brand and yes I own a Priv and I find myself liking the device.

The world is not going to end if they decide to pull the plug on OS10. I have been in computers since the early days and I remember thinking there was nothing better then the first version of Windows compared to CPM or DOS.

Then came Mac OS and then next version of Windows and I moved on to the newer platform and never looked back. I would rather see Blackberry survive making Android based devices then not making devices at all. Just my two cents worth.

[anon(9607753)]

The crux of the BB10 dilemma is brand perception. Who is going to care what OS it is running when your customer is standing at the cash register wondering whether your company will be around in six months?

Posted via CB10

[GadgetTravel]

I have always been a person who doesn't sugar coat stuff or put band aids on a problem just to prolong the enviable. This is in my nature as a business person.

Blackberry is company with shareholders and has to be able to generate a revenue stream to remain a viable entity. That's basic business concepts 101.

I think they made the right choice by introducing an Android based product. The dynamics of this industry has changed dramatically and are not the same as it was in 2006 when they had the majority of the market share.

If OS10 doesn't generate the revenue to be able to sustain itself, then the company has to make the decision wether to continue to support it.

That's just basic concepts folks for any business whether your making smartphones or candy bars. Myself, I love the Blackberry brand and yes I own a Priv and I find myself liking the device.

The world is not going to end if they decide to pull the plug on OS10. I have been in computers since the early days and I remember thinking there was nothing better then the first version of Windows compared to CPM or DOS.

Then came Mac OS and then next version of Windows and I moved on to the newer platform and never looked back. I would rather see Blackberry survive making Android based devices then not making devices at all. Just my two cents worth.

Your post points out a very interesting thing which is a lack of absolutism. Unfortunately it's also pretty rare. It would be Much more desirable to have a BlackBerry running Android with customized UI and security tools from BlackBerry than no Blackberry hardware.

Posted via CB10