[the_boon]

Plus, any notion of a keyboard "case" should be immediately taken outside and shot in the head.

We were just discussing what could be options if the BBMo licensing deal were to end.

Of course we prefer to be using a KEY4 with a proper BB keyboard in two/three years from now over some slab with a keyboard add-on.

But if no KEY4 were to ever exist, I'd be glad that there would be SOME alternatives.

I wouldn't choose to use my S8 + keyboard case over my KEYone/2/LE as a daily, but if these didn't exist, I'd use the former over the two year newer S10.

[Chuck Finley69]

I'm really not sure how hard other OEM'S tried. Most skipped right past that and went with VKB in favor of having more screen real estate. In any case, there were keyboards on computers long before the mobile phone, so it's not as if the keyboard itself was created by BlackBerry.

I remain reasonably confident that alternative designs could be successful if anyone cared to try, but no one does.



100% Agree.

Transition from PKB to VKB took 5-10 years depending on your respective starting point from 2003-2013 if you really just use the BlackBerry arc compared with the rest of the industry. You had the Palm devices from the beginning alongside BlackBerry and the various Windows OEMs that converted early devices to some early Android PKB and let’s not forget Symbian PKB hardware from the early days. It’s simply that consumers really chose VKB for the majority of consumer usages.

No one cares to attempt because the market can barely possibly support one PKB OEM and they’re still operating.

[Platinum_2]

No one cares to attempt because the market can barely possibly support one PKB OEM and they’re still operating.

Samsung (for example), could release a mid-range PKB and it would put TCL out of business overnight. It would likely be a superior device in every way for less money and Samsung would gain an incremental increase in market share. They could easily spread any R&D costs across all other devices and shareholders wouldn't even notice. They could build the device for a fraction of what it might cost TCL and the Samsung brand is much stronger (whereas BlackBerry is seen as laughable). They also have carrier support.

They would effectively own this micro sector of the market and the barrier to entry for anyone else would be too significant to even try.

[Chuck Finley69]

Samsung (for example), could release a mid-range PKB and it would put TCL out of business overnight. It would likely be a superior device in every way for less money and Samsung would gain an incremental increase in market share. They could easily spread any R&D costs across all other devices and shareholders wouldn't even notice. They could build the device for a fraction of what it might cost TCL and the Samsung brand is much stronger (whereas BlackBerry is seen as laughable). They also have carrier support.

They would effectively own this micro sector of the market and the barrier to entry for anyone else would be too significant to even try.

So then why don’t they jump in, sit back and start counting the money as it rolls in?

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Which brings me full circle to my original post. We have some great mid-range phones running Android One with large batter cells, cameras equal or better than anything BlackBerry, displays on par with BlackBerry displays for substantially less. Yes, I get that there is a keyboard involved which adds some cost, but not $100+.

I also get tired of hearing about how BBMo devices are more expensive because they are niche and therefore raw material costs are more and economies of scale are low, blah, blah, blah. Indeed, there are many other Android device makers that are not selling a lot of phones, but seem to be making progress in the marketplace (Nokia, for example), and doing so at better price points (presumably do to fewer costs and better efficiencies).

I think there are just too many hands in the cookie jar. Sorry, but BlackBerry Ltd. needs to let go of TCL if a market-worthy PKB device is to prevail.

Prevail... I think at this point it's more about not going extinct than prevailing.

While I do think at this point the Android One program is better all around. BlackBerry has to protect their security reputation, and they can't "back" a generic product with their name front and center. At some point, it's just not worth doing....

Maybe a "keyboard by BlackBerry" Alactel phone... but your more likely to get standard Android with no updates from Alactel then Android One. That's just the reality of who Alactel is...

[Platinum_2]

So then why don’t they jump in, sit back and start counting the money as it rolls in?

Don't have that answer. If I were in a position to gain a little market share and eliminate competitors by maintaining a single low-cost/high value product, I would do it.

[Platinum_2]

Maybe a "keyboard by BlackBerry" Alactel phone... but your more likely to get standard Android with no updates from Alactel then Android One. That's just the reality of who Alactel is...

Easy now... DTEK50 user here...

[Chuck Finley69]

Don't have that answer. If I were in a position to gain a little market share and eliminate competitors by maintaining a single low-cost/high value product, I would do it.

I’ve got the answer. The OEMs have the data. TCL has taken the most aggressive model to find the lowest point to be profitable if the market is truly interested. It found the largest PKB known brand. It has with BBMo and BB attempted to extract the premium to make it all worthwhile. Problem is that BB wants it’s cut, the carriers want their cut and BBMo needs it’s cut.

At this point, I would surmise that like BB10 and BBM, the OEMs have determined the PKB, for them, is a solution to a problem that doesn’t really exist from the consumer perspective.

[Chuck Finley69]

Prevail... I think at this point it's more about not going extinct than prevailing.

While I do think at this point the Android One program is better all around. BlackBerry has to protect their security reputation, and they can't "back" a generic product with their name front and center. At some point, it's just not worth doing....

Maybe a "keyboard by BlackBerry" Alactel phone... but your more likely to get standard Android with no updates from Alactel then Android One. That's just the reality of who Alactel is...

I think problem is that not enough markup in just selling the PKB for BB as compared to licensing bundle. Similar to BB VKB problem and yet different causal effect. End of day, it doesn’t matter. BB, OEM and Carrier need enough margin for each to be worthwhile. The LE will either prove there’s a viable point to scale up from or that it was a reasonable idea back in 2015-2017 but the newer lines of mid-tiers could disrupt the viability models.

[Platinum_2]

I’ve got the answer. The OEMs have the data. TCL has taken the most aggressive model to find the lowest point to be profitable if the market is truly interested. It found the largest PKB known brand. It has with BBMo and BB attempted to extract the premium to make it all worthwhile. Problem is that BB wants it’s cut, the carriers want their cut and BBMo needs it’s cut.

At this point, I would surmise that like BB10 and BBM, the OEMs have determined the PKB, for them, is a solution to a problem that doesn’t really exist from the consumer perspective.

You might be right, or there is just too little incentive to pursue. In other words, let someone else have all that business.

[Troy Tiscareno]

You might be right, or there is just too little incentive to pursue. In other words, let someone else have all that business.

Exactly.

No company wants to make a product line that, even if technically profitable, makes them very little money. A product that makes Samsung $5M a year in profit is too small to bother with, especially if they have to employ 40 people to make it happen and tie up money in tooling and inventory - because that also comes with a high risk of eventual losses, AND it comes with an opportunity cost: Samsung could find another market where the same 40 employees and the same financial investment could earn $50M/year for the company, perhaps with less risk too.

Companies make those kinds of choices all the time about all kinds of different products. If Samsung believed there was real profit in a PKB, they'd still be making them - but they phased them out just like everyone else.

[the_boon]

Exactly.

No company wants to make a product line that, even if technically profitable, makes them very little money. A product that makes Samsung $5M a year in profit is too small to bother with, especially if they have to employ 40 people to make it happen and tie up money in tooling and inventory - because that also comes with a high risk of eventual losses, AND it comes with an opportunity cost: Samsung could find another market where the same 40 employees and the same financial investment could earn $50M/year for the company, perhaps with less risk too.

Companies make those kinds of choices all the time about all kinds of different products. If Samsung believed there was real profit in a PKB, they'd still be making them - but they phased them out just like everyone else.

They phased them out because maybe every OEM is leaving that market to BB.
But if BBMo were to completely abandon PKB devices (hopefully not), then that market wouldn't be exclusively dominated by them the way it has for over a decade

[Platinum_2]

If Samsung believed there was real profit in a PKB, they'd still be making them - but they phased them out just like everyone else.

It could be a variety of things. Perhaps BlackBerry just controls too many patents and design elements (doubt it, but possible) where developing a worthwhile PKB product has costs that outweigh the benefits for other OEM's.

Or, maybe an OEM will respond once BlackBerry leaves the mobile market? In my opinion, much of BlackBerry's (Ltd) struggles are self-induced. TCL is trying to improve on those misfortunes by handling the hardware. But, software issues still lurk about. BlackBerry Launcher, while effective has brought little in the way of new features. BlackBerry VKB software is a hot mess at the moment, BBMe is irrelevant, Hub got a facelift, but still lacks the overall refinement it had in OS10. Speaking of OS, the OS and security updates are far from timely, though better than some, I suppose.

I believe there is a profitable market for uniquely purposed mobile devices (PKB's, for example), but NOT the way BlackBerry has been doing it.

[Troy Tiscareno]

Maybe, but each of the deficiencies on your list will take money (and a pretty good amount of it) to solve. Would solving those problems result in enough new (or returning) buyers to increase profits? Or, to say it another way, are enough people who would otherwise buy a PKB phone staying away specifically because of those issues?

I don't think we can definitively answer those questions because we lack any solid evidence, but the fact that neither BB or TCL have pushed for those changes does say quite a bit, don't you think?

Smartphones are incredibly complex devices that need constant development. Something you fix today can be broken tomorrow (or a week or month or year down the road) by fixing or adding or updating something else, so ongoing development is critical. It's also very expensive. That means there is a demand curve, and if demand falls below that curve - for whatever reason - then it's no longer profitable or sensible to serve that market. Increasing development raises costs, so demand must also go up (often significantly) to offset those costs.

The problem, as we all know, is that sales volumes are so low, relative to the costs of developing, marketing, distributing, and supporting (including with ongoing development and services for several years after the sale), that it seems likely that we're hovering right around that curve on the graph. That's not where any company wants to be, because the smallest mistake or change in trend or whatever can plunge your sales below the line and lead to bankruptcy - plus it means that you're doing a lot of work and dealing with a lot of hassle for little or no profit.

If TCL (and BB before them) couldn't make it work, it's unlikely that any other large, established manufacturer will even bother to try. The PKB phone might well get left to Kickstarter groups, where expectations are much lower, and where high risks are the norm.

[Troy Tiscareno]

They phased them out because maybe every OEM is leaving that market to BB.

No company that was a direct competitor would leave a significantly profitable market to a competitor for no good reason - so there had to have been a good reason. We've speculated on what that reason was many times in the past.

McDonald's didn't give away the profitable coffee market to Starbucks - they invested in a world-class coffee program with some of the best factories and freshest beans roasted perfectly, even though it wasn't exactly their core market. And McDonalds makes hundreds of millions of dollars in profits just from coffee-related sales alone as a result.

If Samsung thought there was a real market for PKBs, they have a diverse-enough catalog of devices to make one - and they've made them before so obviously they know how it's done. The fact that they don't is pretty telling...

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Smartphones are incredibly complex devices that need constant development. Something you fix today can be broken tomorrow (or a week or month or year down the road) by fixing or adding or updating something else, so ongoing development is critical. .

Example the keyboard... KEYone seemed to have far fewer issues than the newer KEY2 did.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

No company that was a direct competitor would leave a significantly profitable market to a competitor for no good reason - so there had to have been a good reason. We've speculated on what that reason was many times in the past.

McDonald's didn't give away the profitable coffee market to Starbucks - they invested in a world-class coffee program with some of the best factories and freshest beans roasted perfectly, even though it wasn't exactly their core market. And McDonalds makes hundreds of millions of dollars in profits just from coffee-related sales alone as a result.

If Samsung thought there was a real market for PKBs, they have a diverse-enough catalog of devices to make one - and they've made them before so obviously they know how it's done. The fact that they don't is pretty telling...

At this point the market is too small for a major OEM to bother. Only way I see a new PKB is a small niche company like Bullitt Group or Sonim. Someone that might see a low volume of 100K - 200K units as profitable endeavor.

But quality and price won't be there, and it will only further push people away from the form factor. Would love to know how the $50 Jio Phone 2 is doing... long term.

[the_boon]

No company that was a direct competitor would leave a significantly profitable market to a competitor for no good reason - so there had to have been a good reason. We've speculated on what that reason was many times in the past.

McDonald's didn't give away the profitable coffee market to Starbucks - they invested in a world-class coffee program with some of the best factories and freshest beans roasted perfectly, even though it wasn't exactly their core market. And McDonalds makes hundreds of millions of dollars in profits just from coffee-related sales alone as a result.

If Samsung thought there was a real market for PKBs, they have a diverse-enough catalog of devices to make one - and they've made them before so obviously they know how it's done. The fact that they don't is pretty telling...

If we take the Samsung example, yes their last PKB phone that I could think of is the Galaxy Ch@t which was released in 2012.

But back then, slabs were the new hot trend, getting bigger each year, less bezels etc..

It makes sense that the Ch@t lost to something like the S3 at the time because again, slabs were the rising trend and people were leaving their PKB's in droves.

The mobile display technology wasn't near what it is today, and if you look at the Ch@t's display, it's pretty apparent.

However, Samsung is the leader in displays in general, so I have zero worries that they could make a standard sized candybar PKB with an as-big-as-possible AMOLED display on top of it, and it could very well reach into the 5" territory.

Big difference with the 2012 Ch@t phone and those enormous bezels and wasted space with navigation buttons.

People may not want to give up their 6" slabs for a 4.5" PKB device, but for a 5", who knows? It might push the balance in favor of having a full QWERTY if the consumer can still get a nice serviceable display.

Or I could be completely wrong on all this lol

[Platinum_2]

Maybe, but each of the deficiencies on your list will take money (and a pretty good amount of it) to solve. Would solving those problems result in enough new (or returning) buyers to increase profits? Or, to say it another way, are enough people who would otherwise buy a PKB phone staying away specifically because of those issues?

I don't think we can definitively answer those questions because we lack any solid evidence, but the fact that neither BB or TCL have pushed for those changes does say quite a bit, don't you think?

Smartphones are incredibly complex devices that need constant development. Something you fix today can be broken tomorrow (or a week or month or year down the road) by fixing or adding or updating something else, so ongoing development is critical. It's also very expensive. That means there is a demand curve, and if demand falls below that curve - for whatever reason - then it's no longer profitable or sensible to serve that market. Increasing development raises costs, so demand must also go up (often significantly) to offset those costs.

The problem, as we all know, is that sales volumes are so low, relative to the costs of developing, marketing, distributing, and supporting (including with ongoing development and services for several years after the sale), that it seems likely that we're hovering right around that curve on the graph. That's not where any company wants to be, because the smallest mistake or change in trend or whatever can plunge your sales below the line and lead to bankruptcy - plus it means that you're doing a lot of work and dealing with a lot of hassle for little or no profit.

If TCL (and BB before them) couldn't make it work, it's unlikely that any other large, established manufacturer will even bother to try. The PKB phone might well get left to Kickstarter groups, where expectations are much lower, and where high risks are the norm.

That's why I think a migration to Android One might be helpful. The ongoing software development and maintenance would be done for TCL....PKB drivers, etc. not withstanding. As far as the BlackBerry software suite...who cares, really? Just give me a PKB with frequent updates, solid hardware (nice display, great camera, reasonably fast SoC and some RAM) and I'm good to go. I'll find a few of the 2 or so million apps in the Playstore to help me be productive.

[Troy Tiscareno]

That's why I think a migration to Android One might be helpful. The ongoing software development and maintenance would be done for TCL....PKB drivers, etc. not withstanding. As far as the BlackBerry software suite...who cares, really? Just give me a PKB with frequent updates, solid hardware (nice display, great camera, reasonably fast SoC and some RAM) and I'm good to go. I'll find a few of the 2 or so million apps in the Playstore to help me be productive.

I generally agree with you - but that wasn't an option that BB offered 3 years ago and I doubt it's on offer today either. So TCL would have to make PKBs without BB's patented features (which IMO they could do) and let BB people download BB apps from the Play Store as they liked. Of course, BB might kill those apps if they don't have a licensing agreement to give them a reason to maintain them, so there's that...

Still, the question is: is there enough profit for a large company to keep making PKB phones? Particularly 2 years from now when TCL's license with BB expires? I'm not convinced that there is. It might well be left to boutique manufacturers who have lowered expectations from buyers, etc.

[the_boon]

As far as the BlackBerry software suite...who cares, really?

Yeah, I don't use any BB app aside from the launcher and keyboard.

They seem like a waste of resources which are adding dead weight to the BB tax.

Android One + generic PKB if BBMo can't be profitable enough

[Platinum_2]

I generally agree with you - but that wasn't an option that BB offered 3 years ago and I doubt it's on offer today either. So TCL would have to make PKBs without BB's patented features (which IMO they could do) and let BB people download BB apps from the Play Store as they liked. Of course, BB might kill those apps if they don't have a licensing agreement to give them a reason to maintain them, so there's that...

Still, the question is: is there enough profit for a large company to keep making PKB phones? Particularly 2 years from now when TCL's license with BB expires? I'm not convinced that there is. It might well be left to boutique manufacturers who have lowered expectations from buyers, etc.

I think there is enough profit, but something has to go. I vote BlackBerry Ltd. TCL + generic PKB + Android One. (Like boon suggested).

I am as much a fan as everyone here, but I'm tired of BlackBerry (the brand) sucking year after year. Something has to change. I am committed to the device, not BlackBerry. I don't care who makes it.

[the_boon]

I vote TCL + generic PKB + Android One.

Bring on the generic TCL PKB device!

I am committed to the d̶e̶v̶i̶c̶e̶ PKB, not BlackBerry. I don't care who makes it.

Fixed

[Platinum_2]

Bring on the generic TCL PKB device!



Fixed

Good call.

[bb10adopter111]

I may be in the minority here, but if Android improves it's gestures enough, I will no longer care about the PKB.

I have found the VKB experience to be superior to PKB on BB10 for my text intensive use case (2-5K words a day).

Unfortunately, on Android, I need the PKB for the shortcuts to offset the clunky nav keys.

I'd be happy if BlackBerry just keeps refining the Hub and other tools aimed at business professionals whose work is similar to the "traditional" BlackBerry executive, because that's the user niche that Apple and Google have ignored.

Posted with my trusty Z10