06-20-11 04:05 AM
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  1. kcdist's Avatar
    I've got skin in this game. Lots. And it's on the pavement never to be recovered. With June options expiring tomorrow, I have a 50k investment that is almost officially worthless.

    Therefore, allow me a forum to share my thoughts on RIM....

    Security. Can't get enough of it. I worked with a small company a few years back. They thought they had all the bases covered. Over Christmas, the President received a call from the IT manager. Over $1.5 Million gone from an account. Turns out, they left their toys on the front yard, and some bad kid from Israel (of all places!?!) walked by and took them away. Bad guy was eventually caught in Montreal (.....thousands of miles from the company, and no conection whatsoever. Funds long gone never to be recovered). The Lesson? Security is the key to any and everything connected to the internet. There was an overhaul and audit from top to bottom. Fort Knox was turned into Fort Knox on Alcatraz on Devil's Island cubed. Nothing was left to chance. The only smartphone that the Company will ever, ever, use going forward? Blackberry of course.

    Every day, another security breach is announced, and thousands of others don't make it into the media. Sooner or later, the importance of internet and phone security will make it into the mainstream mindset. When it does, Blackberry will again rule the roost. As explained to me, RIM has hyper-security baked in to every single segment of their products. The others?....not so much, primarily because there is a lot they cannot control without their own servers.

    The Delays. Jeez. I get that in spades. I have no doubt that the 9900 is locked and loaded and ready to go. However, listening to the CC last night, the timing of release is out of RIM's hands. I have gone through equipment certification.....it's a painfully slow process.

    I doubt anyone of the 'Analysts' that are trashing RIM today have ever been involved in any segment of management or manufacturing, let alone run a company. There are hundreds, nay thousands, of possible glitches that can occur in the release of a new product, anyone of which can delay a launch. Look at Boeing or Airbus.

    Call me naive, but I take RIM at their word. They have a seemingly wonderful new lineup of products, that are delayed into market by three or four months. As a result, their expected profitibility takes a hit for a couple of quarters. They STILL have plenty of cash in the bank. They STILL have advantages that other companies can only dream of. They are STILL making a quarterly profit that would make many large companies green with envy.

    I could understand the doomsayers if RIM had introduced their lineup of new phones with BB7 and QNX and they fell flat on their face. If they put forth the best lineup that they were capable of, and there was nary a raised eyebrow from the consumer. But....that is not the case. Even with a currently dated lineup, they are moving 13-14 Million phones every quarter...almost 200,000 every business day. The Smartphone market continues to grow by double digits, and RIM is exceptionally well placed to capitalize on it with their new product.

    RIM might have to spend a big chunk of cash to market the new product, to re-introduce Blackberry's to the (American) segment that has moved past them, and they likely will. Dont think that Balsillie and Lazardis are sitting back doing nothing. They have lost a combined $2.1 BILLION in personal fortune since February. They have a vested interest in righting the ship in as an explosive as way as possible. If they had been resting on their laurals previously, they certainly aren't anymore.

    However, it all comes back to the delays and certification. RIM will not go belly up for suffering through a few difficult quarters. New products, a laser-like new focus, software that appears to be as leading edge as exists in the marketplace, and, most importantly, Security.

    Despite my haircut (and it hurts like ****), I re-established a position in RIM today. I believe, sooner or later, that Wall Street traders will take RIM the opposite direction. It will start with a positive story or two. A Reasonable and Rational look at the company and it's many strengths.

    Unlike Nortel or Cisco, the business of RIM is relatively easy to understand. I have read all that there is to read and, without Rose Colored Glasses, still strongly believe in the story. A difficult few months will not destroy a story like RIM. I strongly believe that there is a purposeful negative agenda in full attack against RIM at the moment. Small issues are trumpeted as major issues. Major issues as apocalyptic ones. Exagerrations, half-truths and major innuendo added to the very real issues that do exist. I think it has been overdone, and hopefully, the market will soon reach the same consesus.

    Anyhoo....that's my thoughts, and thanks Crackberry for a place to put them.
    06-17-11 04:24 PM
  2. CranBerry413's Avatar
    You're not the only one. I'm invested in RIM as well. (Part of my 401K is in RIM Stock.)

    But beyond that, I think this is a Solid Company. People let personal conflict affect their Professional Judgment. Personally, I like Mike L. Would love to meet him personally.

    But there is no reason to Panic. Concern, yes. Rethink Positions, Yes. Revamp, Reinvent, and Reinnovate, Absolutely. But not Panic, that would lead to Ruin.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    06-17-11 04:38 PM
  3. dasdas1's Avatar
    I started thinking seriously about shorting RIMM when the stock was selling at about $62 per share. Unfortunately, I didn't act until the stock price had dropped to $53.

    I was really pleased when it broke $40. At $35 I decided to get out and take a very nice profit. Shame. I should have ridden it all the way down into the $27 range where it stands today.

    Today's smart phones and tablets are really computers.

    Transitioning from being a mobile phone company to a computer company is a giant step. Good luck with that, especially when the two leading competitors, Apple and Google, are the primary innovators in the computer space.

    Catching up with them, while transitioning from mobile phones to computers, is a bit daunting in terms of the challenges faced.

    That's why I saw the cell phone companies, like RIM and Nokia, falling out of their leadership positions. They won't go out of business just yet. Overall growth of the smart phone and tablet markets will be so strong the next few years that weaker competitors aren't likely to be eliminated entirely.

    I know several people who carry both a Blackberry and an iPhone. The Blackberry is employer issued. The iPhone is their personal device. They love their iPhones and would prefer to carry just the one device.

    Corporate IT departments tend to be a barrier to technological progress, as opposed to an enabler. Their priorities are maintaining IT department control over computers and devices and preserving the status quo. Witness the high percentage of corporate desktops still running ten year old Windows XP. The IT guys don't have 'best possible user experience' on their priority list. Security is way overblown because a security fetish tends to help them with their primary goal (maintaining IT departmental control).

    The iPad 2 is so vastly superior to the Playbook that it's simply no contest. The small screen Playbook is way overpriced for it's size, and doesn't begin to compare. Its like buying a small Hyundai when you could have a BMW for the same price.
    06-17-11 04:54 PM
  4. johnenglish's Avatar
    The downturn today was an over reaction. RIM should be able to get its act together and by this time next year RIM will be back in the game.
    06-17-11 05:05 PM
  5. Economist101's Avatar
    Sooner or later, the importance of internet and phone security will make it into the mainstream mindset. When it does, Blackberry will again rule the roost.
    Right. I mean, people stopped smoking once they realized it was hazardous to their health, right? The American people rose up to stop the federal government's deficit spending because it weakened the country, right? People no longer drink and drive because of the danger, right? People do what they do and like what they like. Some may wish iOS or Android was more secure, but most have little if any appreciation of security as a concept beyond a phone passcode or an e-mail password.
    06-17-11 05:15 PM
  6. sg8330's Avatar
    Today's smart phones and tablets are really computers.
    completely disagree

    I'd never want to do computer work on a tablet because it has no physical input and the display size is much too small. And if this were the case, why would Microsoft have to completely re-imagine Windows 8 from the ground up to be compatible with tablets if that were the case?

    If desktop computers may be the pinnacle of immobility, but then that would make tablets the epitome of compromise (between performance, battery life, and usability). While some people may be okay with it, others, like me, are not.

    Security is way overblown because a security fetish tends to help them with their primary goal (maintaining IT departmental control).
    Except you forgot the massive strides toward the cloud that Microsoft and Apple are moving toward, and if these two companies take the same lax approach to security (referring to the recent 99% vulnerability rate for compromising androids) as they do for their cloud services, they'll end up on their *** like Sony with their PSN fiasco.

    As long as the overall trend moves toward offering cloud-based services to these devices, RIM's history of data compression and tough security puts them in a HUGE advantage over the competition. The question is whether they'll utilize this in a timely fashion or squander it.
    Last edited by sg8330; 06-17-11 at 05:21 PM.
    06-17-11 05:18 PM
  7. dasdas1's Avatar
    completely disagree

    I'd never want to do computer work on a tablet because it has no physical input and the display size is much too small. And if this were the case, why would Microsoft have to completely re-imagine Windows 8 from the ground up to be compatible with tablets if that were the case?

    If desktop computers may be the pinnacle of immobility, but then that would make tablets the epitome of compromise (between performance, battery life, and usability). While some people may be okay with it, others, like me, are not.

    Except you forgot the massive strides toward the cloud that Microsoft and Apple are moving toward, and if these two companies take the same lax approach to security (referring to the recent 99% vulnerability rate for compromising androids) as they do for their cloud services, they'll end up on their *** like Sony with their PSN fiasco.

    As long as the overall trend moves toward offering cloud-based services to these devices, RIM's history of data compression and tough security puts them in a HUGE advantage over the competition. The question is whether they'll utilize this in a timely fashion or squander it.
    -----

    No that's incorrect. An operating system like iOS or Android is a computer O/S. Running Apps on those devices is computing. Tablets are not a compromise. Spend some time with an iPad 2 and you will start to smile.

    Security is a huge yawner for me. It just doesn't ring my chime. I've been a Mac user since 1986. Have run a business with over 100 macs. Total number of security problems encountered in 25 years ---> Zero. Security is a bogus advantage. See my comments above re IT department priorities.

    I don't know what Microsoft would imagine. They're years late to the party and no longer in the game. Lots of luck with their belated efforts to reenter years later :-)
    06-17-11 05:43 PM
  8. dasdas1's Avatar
    Do you really think there will be a Blackberry five years from now?? I don't think so.
    06-17-11 07:05 PM
  9. kevinnugent's Avatar
    Do you really think there will be a Blackberry five years from now?? I don't think so.
    I think there will be, but not the same company as we see today. Enterprise software and service delivery will be it. They can't handle retail and consumer products.
    06-17-11 07:32 PM
  10. jthep's Avatar
    Actually, yes! RIM stated in their dismal conference call they shipped 13.5 million Blackberry smartphones and 500,000 Playbook tablets. I know, that doesn't say how many devices they actually SOLD!

    But if those things weren't selling at all and collecting dust, wouldn't retailers stop ordering extra inventory?

    Also RIM has consistently shipped/sold 10-14 million Blackberry smartphones per quarter for quite a while now.

    Cost cutting in layoffs, slashing earnings projections, losing market share especially in the US, and reassuring investors by bragging about the co-CEO's resumes are not good signs, I would agree as any logical person would.

    But stock buybacks, 3 billion in cash, a 50 million+ userbase of BB smartphones, possibly the second most successful tablet, and upcoming OS7 along with future QNX phones, I would say the future looks bright for RIM done the line.

    RIM is just a joke at marketing their products to the consumer, where Apple is great at it and Google is pretty good at it too by getting several companies to do it through all sorts of different manufacturers and carriers.
    06-17-11 07:40 PM
  11. His Shadow's Avatar
    I've got skin in this game. Lots. And it's on the pavement never to be recovered. With June options expiring tomorrow, I have a 50k investment that is almost officially worthless.

    Therefore, allow me a forum to share my thoughts on RIM....

    Security. Can't get enough of it. I worked with a small company a few years back. They thought they had all the bases covered. Over Christmas, the President received a call from the IT manager. Over $1.5 Million gone from an account. Turns out, they left their toys on the front yard, and some bad kid from Israel (of all places!?!) walked by and took them away. Bad guy was eventually caught in Montreal (.....thousands of miles from the company, and no conection whatsoever. Funds long gone never to be recovered). The Lesson? Security is the key to any and everything connected to the internet. There was an overhaul and audit from top to bottom. Fort Knox was turned into Fort Knox on Alcatraz on Devil's Island cubed. Nothing was left to chance. The only smartphone that the Company will ever, ever, use going forward? Blackberry of course.

    Every day, another security breach is announced, and thousands of others don't make it into the media. Sooner or later, the importance of internet and phone security will make it into the mainstream mindset. When it does, Blackberry will again rule the roost. As explained to me, RIM has hyper-security baked in to every single segment of their products. The others?....not so much, primarily because there is a lot they cannot control without their own servers.

    The Delays. Jeez. I get that in spades. I have no doubt that the 9900 is locked and loaded and ready to go. However, listening to the CC last night, the timing of release is out of RIM's hands. I have gone through equipment certification.....it's a painfully slow process.

    I doubt anyone of the 'Analysts' that are trashing RIM today have ever been involved in any segment of management or manufacturing, let alone run a company. There are hundreds, nay thousands, of possible glitches that can occur in the release of a new product, anyone of which can delay a launch. Look at Boeing or Airbus.

    Call me naive, but I take RIM at their word. They have a seemingly wonderful new lineup of products, that are delayed into market by three or four months. As a result, their expected profitibility takes a hit for a couple of quarters. They STILL have plenty of cash in the bank. They STILL have advantages that other companies can only dream of. They are STILL making a quarterly profit that would make many large companies green with envy.

    I could understand the doomsayers if RIM had introduced their lineup of new phones with BB7 and QNX and they fell flat on their face. If they put forth the best lineup that they were capable of, and there was nary a raised eyebrow from the consumer. But....that is not the case. Even with a currently dated lineup, they are moving 13-14 Million phones every quarter...almost 200,000 every business day. The Smartphone market continues to grow by double digits, and RIM is exceptionally well placed to capitalize on it with their new product.

    RIM might have to spend a big chunk of cash to market the new product, to re-introduce Blackberry's to the (American) segment that has moved past them, and they likely will. Dont think that Balsillie and Lazardis are sitting back doing nothing. They have lost a combined $2.1 BILLION in personal fortune since February. They have a vested interest in righting the ship in as an explosive as way as possible. If they had been resting on their laurals previously, they certainly aren't anymore.

    However, it all comes back to the delays and certification. RIM will not go belly up for suffering through a few difficult quarters. New products, a laser-like new focus, software that appears to be as leading edge as exists in the marketplace, and, most importantly, Security.

    Despite my haircut (and it hurts like ****), I re-established a position in RIM today. I believe, sooner or later, that Wall Street traders will take RIM the opposite direction. It will start with a positive story or two. A Reasonable and Rational look at the company and it's many strengths.

    Unlike Nortel or Cisco, the business of RIM is relatively easy to understand. I have read all that there is to read and, without Rose Colored Glasses, still strongly believe in the story. A difficult few months will not destroy a story like RIM. I strongly believe that there is a purposeful negative agenda in full attack against RIM at the moment. Small issues are trumpeted as major issues. Major issues as apocalyptic ones. Exagerrations, half-truths and major innuendo added to the very real issues that do exist. I think it has been overdone, and hopefully, the market will soon reach the same consesus.

    Anyhoo....that's my thoughts, and thanks Crackberry for a place to put them.
    Excellent post and I was pretty much thinking the same things you mentioned (you posted first though)
    06-17-11 07:41 PM
  12. His Shadow's Avatar
    Damn, I didn't mean to quote the whole post. Sorry.
    06-17-11 07:46 PM
  13. dasdas1's Avatar
    I think there will be, but not the same company as we see today. Enterprise software and service delivery will be it. They can't handle retail and consumer products.
    Kevin - I really don't think that's how it will play out. Consumers are going to have iPhones, iPads, Android phones, and that's about it. They're not going to want to be issued a work phone that they must tote around in addition to their iPhone. That's especially true if they perceive the work phone to be markedly inferior.
    06-17-11 07:56 PM
  14. jthep's Avatar
    Depends on the work phone. If they are issuing Blackberry Curves from 2007, then it puts a bad taste in the workers' mouth vs. modern smartphones. If they are being issued say a BB Torch, it is a pretty good media device while also being a really good work phone with IMHO, the best form factor of any phone I have ever used.
    06-17-11 08:02 PM
  15. T
    Consumers are going to have iPhones, iPads, Android phones, and that's about it. They're not going to want to be issued a work phone that they must tote around in addition to their iPhone. That's especially true if they perceive the work phone to be markedly inferior.
    So their employers will actually care about what they want or don't want and how they "perceive" the work-issued phones?

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    06-17-11 08:11 PM
  16. pattste's Avatar
    Depends on the work phone. If they are issuing Blackberry Curves from 2007, then it puts a bad taste in the workers' mouth vs. modern smartphones. If they are being issued say a BB Torch, it is a pretty good media device while also being a really good work phone with IMHO, the best form factor of any phone I have ever used.
    I work for a very large company. Several employees are issued BlackBerries, the only corporate device allowed. Some of the phones are decent (i.e. 9780) but there are draconian restrictions imposed on them. Employees can't install applications, for instance. They're probably using 25% of the features. Most of the phones are older, contributing to the idea that BlackBerries are outdated technology. When they buy a personal phone, they buy an iPhone. Then I show them how I have virtually all the same features on my Torch (and some they don't have) and they're surprised.
    06-17-11 09:41 PM
  17. johnenglish's Avatar
    Do you really think there will be a Blackberry five years from now?? I don't think so.
    Absoluetly. They're good company with good fundementals. They just have some organizational issues. People compare them to Nortel but Nortel was losing money due to the tech bubble collapsing and was trying to hide this fact with fraudulent accounting. Not to mention they were crazily overvalued themselves due to the tech bubble and that collapse also impacted their share price.

    RIM's market has not disappeared; people are still buying smartphones. RIM is not trying to hide it's failures with fradulent accounting; everyone is aware of what's happenning. Onec RIM addresses it's organizational challenges they'll be back in the game. It'll probably take a year, but like IBM back in the early 2000s, RIM is big enough to absorb several quarters of dimished growth as long as they can show progress.
    06-17-11 09:42 PM
  18. Gucci33's Avatar
    I am waiting for the stock to get under 25 and I'm pulling the trigger!

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    06-17-11 09:53 PM
  19. Judson50's Avatar
    At the end of the Day RIM needs to change the public's perception of themselves.

    Consumers always want leading edge technologies and in the US, the perception is, that is NOT Blackberry. I personally, it do not believe any amout of statistics/facts RIM can dish out will turn around the average (non-security focused) everyday consumer (which is growing rapidly). Their perception is reality. Period.

    The average US consumer has been marketed to intergrate their phone into his/her social life so it is a part of who you are. And while Blackberries are marketed for business, the up-in-coming business users don't want two phones. They don't care about security. They care about relationships. Just look at Facebook with 500 million users. That is what people care about. With apple integrating apps that help people connect, play games with one another and the "sleek" elegant design the attaches itself to a "who you are" and the "personal" things (e.g. Picutres, video, facetime - coolfactor) that hits the Heart.

    An efficient, powerhouse, stable OS, productive device doesn't. (To the US "everyday" consumer).

    Thus Apple will continue to eat up that market (which is growing, clearly).

    I have no doubt RIM is here to stay, but too agree; it may not be in the consumer sector.

    In fact, my company stresses Managers (all 1200 of them) to get iPhones and stay away from blackberry. This was an IT push because they stated Blackberry was not compatable with their servers and caused problems. They also stated they would not service BES nor offer any assistance to blackberry. That is why all managers (with the exception of a few) have an iPhone in my company.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    06-17-11 10:04 PM
  20. mobibiz's Avatar
    I've got skin in this game. Lots. And it's on the pavement never to be recovered. With June options expiring tomorrow, I have a 50k investment that is almost officially worthless.

    Therefore, allow me a forum to share my thoughts on RIM....
    Excellent post, most of the average blackberry users do not understand what a blackberry device is and what it is capable of. The dreaded IT department in every organization are the people who have to face the heat. I have worked for a very large corporation's IT department where we supported Blackberries, Iphones, androids and windows mobile phones. Assisting the users on these devices, my experience has been if secure, hassle free communications is what you seek. Look no further than a BlackBerry on the BES. Friends, today information is the biggest asset any organization has and the security a BlackBerry provides, nothing else can.
    06-18-11 02:50 AM
  21. ADFXPro777's Avatar
    Corporate IT departments tend to be a barrier to technological progress, as opposed to an enabler. Their priorities are maintaining IT department control over computers and devices and preserving the status quo. Witness the high percentage of corporate desktops still running ten year old Windows XP. The IT guys don't have 'best possible user experience' on their priority list. Security is way overblown because a security fetish tends to help them with their primary goal (maintaining IT departmental control).

    The iPad 2 is so vastly superior to the Playbook that it's simply no contest. The small screen Playbook is way overpriced for it's size, and doesn't begin to compare. Its like buying a small Hyundai when you could have a BMW for the same price.
    Unlike some companies, corporate IT departments are there for an obvious reason - to prevent their company's information and assets from being stolen or viewed by unauthorized parties. You may want to read some news, articles and case studies on corporate espionage, data mining and specific hacking if you think the IT departments are just mere barriers.

    If you look at ipads as BMWs, then I look at Playbooks as lightweight tanks. You should do a bit more reading and research on the Playbooks - you will find that their specifications and potential are far beyond any ipad ;-)

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    06-18-11 04:32 AM
  22. jthep's Avatar
    Yea, not sure where the iPad is so "vastly superior". I think it is a bit more polished and has more apps to choose from.

    But the Playbook has slightly better screen resolution, sound quality, runs flash sites, shares data w/ BB's through the BB Bridge app, and is more portable if the 7'' form factor is your preference.

    I know in America, the carriers are greedy scumbags and want to charge for tethering, wifi hotspot features on phones or make you buy separate data plans for tablets.

    I look at it this way, by buying a 16 gig PB I am saving $200-300 over a 3G iPad2 just on the price of the device. And an additional $300 a year by not buying a separate data plan and just using the Bridge feature.

    So its buy the Playbook once and share data on my BB or buy a 3G iPad2 and pay for it forever in addition to my phone's data plan. Pretty easy choice for me...
    06-18-11 06:26 AM
  23. T
    And while Blackberries are marketed for business, the up-in-coming business users don't want two phones. They don't care about security. They care about relationships. Just look at Facebook with 500 million users. That is what people care about. With apple integrating apps that help people connect, play games with one another and the "sleek" elegant design the attaches itself to a "who you are" and the "personal" things (e.g. Picutres, video, facetime - coolfactor) that hits the Heart.

    An efficient, powerhouse, stable OS, productive device doesn't. (To the US "everyday" consumer).
    "Relationships." "Games." Their phones "define" them. What a pathetically stupid society.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    Made in flanders and LuisCast like this.
    06-18-11 06:55 AM
  24. paolomusic's Avatar
    Completely agree with OP. I was slightly amused at how many investors panicked yesterday and dumped their shares. It was as if RIM had released their new line of phones and had sold less than expected, lost revenue etc. I think (and hope) there is a huge underappreciation by these so called "analysts" of how valued BB's are in the market outside of the corporate world. My whole family keeps in touch via BBM and most of my friends and business associates (I'm in the music industry) are communicate on there too. As for the playbook, RIM entered a market where they had ZERO share and one that apple dominated because they were the first to market (not the first tablet but the first mainstream). Of course it will take time to chip away at the others' share-look at google chrome entering the web browser market- but I'm sure there are people out there like me waiting due to costs (like I said, I'm in the music industry lol) and a lot more who are unaware of it due to marketing- and to be fair I see a lot of tv commercials and internet ads for it, there could be more but from RIM's point of view I'm not surprised they're not throwing a ton of money at it yet if the OS is still a little buggy/not incorporating the features its capable of. Let the loyal BB users adopt it and when more updates come along and its a little smoother they may start a harder campaign. Anyway..I could rant for ages, I've been on crackberry for years just never took the time to register or post so I've got a lot held in lol. My point is RIM will weather this rough patch but new devices should see them boost profits as will the word spreading about the playbook. I'm confident.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    06-18-11 07:34 AM
  25. dasdas1's Avatar
    Absoluetly. Once RIM addresses it's organizational challenges they'll be back in the game. It'll probably take a year, but like IBM back in the early 2000s, RIM is big enough to absorb several quarters of dimished growth as long as they can show progress.
    When RIMM drops below $10 a share, as Nokia has done, they may become an acquisition target based on reduced market capitalization. That will likely happen sooner rather than later.

    I don't think you'd buy them for their technology, just their customer base. Microsoft is desperate to get back in the game and loaded with cash. Apple has enough in their cash horde to purchase the entire mobile phone industry excepting Samsung.
    06-18-11 08:10 AM
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