03-19-10 07:11 AM
78 1234
tools
  1. Jen_BabyBerryApps's Avatar
    Having just skimmed the report, I couldn't find the 40% number anywhere. I could have easily missed it. What I didn't miss was this bit from their methodology:

    For the survey, the Crowd Scientists tapped 1,140 respondents who were randomly recruited via the Crowd Science Sample Beta program from websites serving more than 20 million unique visitors. The vast majority of respondents (44%) used a regular cell phone, not a smart phone. iPhone users represented 17% of the respondents, followed by Blackberry users (15%), Nokia (10%), Windows Mobile (4%), Android (3%) and Palm (2%)

    If I've done my math correctly, their data is based on about 160 BlackBerry users being surveyed about Android? Does anyone else see a problem with the validity of these 40% claims? And you wondered why they called the blogsphere an echo chamber.
    03-15-10 10:02 PM
  2. chuckh0308's Avatar
    LOL, I'm NOT switching to the iPhone! Bad enough there's one of those stupid things in the house already! BUT, I will continue to consider Android...

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-15-10 10:40 PM
  3. happyjacked's Avatar
    You promise?
    LMAO

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-15-10 10:49 PM
  4. christopherp's Avatar
    90% of half of what you read is up to 75% misleading even considering the 3-4% margin of error...I think that about sums up my opinion of this article.
    03-15-10 11:15 PM
  5. happyjacked's Avatar
    Figures lie, and liars figure. Don't read too much into this garbage.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-15-10 11:22 PM
  6. anon(13322)'s Avatar
    The new IPhone will destoy A LOT of companies if it is released on all carriers. Oh man, Apple will sell like crazzzy. Its doing it just on AT&T.

    IChat and a front facing camera plus multitasking on the new iPhone = SEE YOU LATER, BB!

    I'm switching back to the new iPhone when it is released. Steve Jobs is my daddy. I do whatever he says. I LOVE Apple!

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-15-10 11:23 PM
  7. EnergyPlus's Avatar
    Interesting. Ok, 1100 people is actually of a sufficient enough size to do an extrapolation and could, theoretically, be a reasonably accurate poll, assuming all other factors are taken into consideration and the pollster did their homework. If you read the full report though, the vast majority of those polled (44%), did not use smart phones at all, but rather, basic mobile phones. iPhone users represented 17% of the respondents and BlackBerry users at 15%.

    This was an online poll, which always leaves me feeling suspicious, though I'm no pollling expert. Interesting. Of course, a huge chunk of media attention goes to iPhone and Android and now, the newer, Nexus 1. Fun stuff to think about!
    03-15-10 11:37 PM
  8. oasissux's Avatar
    As has been mentioned, 1100 people is more than enough to get statistically significant results if the sample is representative of the population you're making inferences about and was randomly obtained.

    We can safely assume that this survey doesn't fulfill those requirements, but the findings are still interesting. I'm sure RIM is all over it, trying to figure out the motivation behind the few respondents who want to ditch their Berrys.
    03-16-10 01:02 AM
  9. stuaw11's Avatar
    1) The difference here is an equal number of each platform wasnt used, so the results can be more skewed. 1100 may be ok, we'll assume that, but its not like youre asking everyone the same question. That 1100 is fragmented even more into what platform you currently have. So in reality, there were about 450-500 non-smartphone users, 140 BB, 160 or so iphone, etc etc. So the sample size is just too small for EACH platform. Clearly shown in the +/-10 which is a huge margin of error.

    2) The data was a WEB POLL. Highly unreliable to begin with.

    3) We have NO CLUE who voted, if they were allowed to vote multiple times to skew the data, what areas they are from, etc etc.

    4) are these consumers, corporate users, etc? It makes a difference because no matter what people say in a poll, if they arent the owners of the phone (company phone) what they want doesnt matter because theyre tied to it.

    5) Again, BB wasnt even a choice on the survey, while Android and Apple were (to recommend or stay with) so the results are clearly there to be biased to begin with.

    There's simply NO stats on data collection provided. First telltale sign of something fishy. Go look at how Gallup collects data (properly).
    Last edited by stuaw11; 03-16-10 at 01:31 AM.
    03-16-10 01:13 AM
  10. reeneebob's Avatar
    Out of the 1100 people most of them were probably Storm 1 owners!
    Um - as one of the people who is so disillusioned with RIM that I will be leaving as soon as my contract allows, the only thing keeping me there is the Storm 1. My Curve 8330 had me frustrated, the Storm was supposed to be a stop gap. If anything the Storm 1 is keeping me with RIM longer than expected.

    The Storm has gotten a very, very bad reputation and it sucks. The phone is fantastic with OS5 on it.

    That said - I love living in a country where iPhone is on all carriers, and once Gen 4 hits the market I'm done. I can't wait for RIM to get a clue any longer and I'm sick of their attitude that people will stay regardless. Of course, judging from some of the posts I can see why they feel that way and it only encourages their laziness.
    Last edited by reeneebob; 03-16-10 at 01:50 AM.
    03-16-10 01:34 AM
  11. thymaster's Avatar
    Where's the link to the rest of the article. I'm going to sue those bastxrds for misleading gullible consumers like me. Hahahahahhahah.
    03-16-10 02:33 AM
  12. syb0rg's Avatar
    with all the recent BIS/BES outages. I don't see why not. I'd jump ship in a heart beat if given the chance. I'm sick of loosing EVERY APPLICATION and all my browsers because RIM cannot keep there servers working properly.

    Some people say "give a new browser or i'm leaving"
    Some poeple say "give me a new UI or i'm leaving"

    Before you starting pumping out 10 ka-gillion phones and super web-kit enabled browser with multiple tabs and super compressors that gives you a 10Mb/second download "feel speed"

    why no make sure your have the hard ware to support the 8.2 ka-gillion phones you guys have out there.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    03-16-10 08:10 AM
  13. eagles88's Avatar
    I went from using BB's for 4 years to an iPhone back in 2008 when I started working for a gaming developer. I just went back to a BB even though i am still with the same company. I really couldn't handle the iPhone anymore and my patience wore thin. I know i won't be switching back again.
    03-16-10 09:19 AM
  14. CoyDog's Avatar
    The 39% that would switch to the iPhone are Blackberry Posers anyway. If productivity and efficiency is the groove, then Blackberry has it. Those switchers are probably looking for games when they are not on their couch!
    03-16-10 09:38 AM
  15. qbnkelt's Avatar
    Well, given that in their "About Us" section does not mention any expertise in RIM, I would say that they have a bias towards a particular set of devices.

    "We at Ars take great pride in our unique combination of technical savvy and wide-ranging interest in the human arts and sciences. Our editorial team is at home on Linux, Mac, and Windows; they know both the home and the enterprise; they understand law and politics; and they specialize in bringing readers the right answer, the first time. It's no wonder that Ars has become a "go-to" destination for those who need to sift the wheat from the chaff."

    Their expertise lists Apple and Microsoft.

    "All Apple Business Gadgets Gaming Microsoft Open Source Science Tech Policy More
    Hardware Media Security Software Staff Telecom Web Data Centers "

    The study itself is flawed in that it does not list any of their methodologies for attaining the data.

    So - another report of one company giving its opinion on something without any objectivity and it being quoted as gospel.

    40% of Blackberry users willing to trade in for an iPhone
    03-16-10 09:47 AM
  16. oasissux's Avatar
    1) The difference here is an equal number of each platform wasnt used, so the results can be more skewed. 1100 may be ok, we'll assume that, but its not like youre asking everyone the same question. That 1100 is fragmented even more into what platform you currently have. So in reality, there were about 450-500 non-smartphone users, 140 BB, 160 or so iphone, etc etc. So the sample size is just too small for EACH platform. Clearly shown in the +/-10 which is a huge margin of error.

    2) The data was a WEB POLL. Highly unreliable to begin with.

    3) We have NO CLUE who voted, if they were allowed to vote multiple times to skew the data, what areas they are from, etc etc.

    4) are these consumers, corporate users, etc? It makes a difference because no matter what people say in a poll, if they arent the owners of the phone (company phone) what they want doesnt matter because theyre tied to it.

    5) Again, BB wasnt even a choice on the survey, while Android and Apple were (to recommend or stay with) so the results are clearly there to be biased to begin with.

    There's simply NO stats on data collection provided. First telltale sign of something fishy. Go look at how Gallup collects data (properly).
    Yeah, that's kinda what "representative" and "randomly obtained" mean.
    03-16-10 11:36 AM
  17. qbnkelt's Avatar
    Yeah, that's kinda what "representative" and "randomly obtained" mean.
    Not really. Self reports are not good indicators because only those with a certain strongly held opinion one way or the other bother to respond. Also, the location where the poll was held is questionable. If in that publication you poll the readership you will find a bias towards Apple and Microsoft because those are the demographics they target, based on their "About Us" and their list of supported software/tech. They just go into group think. Which is why if you listen to Fox News you get one idea of what is happening in America and then you go to MSNBC and you get an entirely different version of events.

    A true poll will perform random sampling in a neutral environment.
    03-16-10 11:42 AM
  18. qbnkelt's Avatar
    57% of all statistics are just made up. Oops, I meant 63%...

    I'd like to see how many of the alleged switchers would switch back after putting the hype aside and actually using one...
    As Benjamin Disraeli said - There are five kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, statistics, politicians quoting statistics, and novelists quoting politicians on statistics.
    03-16-10 11:53 AM
  19. reeneebob's Avatar
    The 39% that would switch to the iPhone are Blackberry Posers anyway. If productivity and efficiency is the groove, then Blackberry has it. Those switchers are probably looking for games when they are not on their couch!
    Well, if that isn't just the stupidest blanket statement ever.
    03-16-10 11:56 AM
  20. scorpiodsu's Avatar
    The whole purpose of surveys is to survey a small group of people with certain controls and spit statistics out based on it. Obviously there is a percentage of err usually 3+ and 3- but this is the type of stuff that most statistics are built on. People will believe other surveys but won't believe this. Good thing users on CB represent and very tiny number of actually blackberry users. Whether the true numbers are any where close to accurate it's still telling. They could go to every major city and survey 1100 people and probably still get within 5% of the same result. People still wouldn't believe it because "I'll never let my blackberry go. It's my one and only true love. I'd married it if it could sign the marriage license".
    Last edited by scorpiodsu; 03-16-10 at 12:25 PM.
    03-16-10 12:21 PM
  21. Laura Knotek's Avatar
    I think the survey is flawed because it does not separate business and consumer users. Most people who are issued a phone by their employers get a BlackBerry, and not necessarily the model they prefer. It stands to reason that these folks would want to try something other than what their boss tells them they have to use.

    A better way to conduct the survey would be to exclude business users and only collect results from consumer users who purchase their own personal phones and have the ability to choose whatever phones they want.
    03-16-10 12:23 PM
  22. papped's Avatar
    I wouldn't be at all surprised if most of the sites that have posted that survey knew perfectly well how dodgy the data actually was, the simple fact is that its a nice controversial headline and thats what gets people to read on or comment and they want anything that boosts their traffic no matter how idiotic.
    I dunno, sometimes BGR blatantly defends these dodgy headlines in the comments with incorrect info. I understand using controversial/crap articles to pull in readers.
    03-16-10 12:41 PM
  23. EnergyPlus's Avatar
    I am by no means, defending the study, I'm trying to keep an open mind. Some of the posts I'm reading here seem a bit silly and are coming from a lack of knowledge about the entire process. Qb, not to single you out, in fact, I think your point is well made, but rarely do we see polls where all the dry, technical data is reported. Instead, we simply see poll results (though they usually put a +/- for margin of error, did not see that with this one).

    I've always been suspicious of web-based polls, but that does not mean that the math and polling gurus couldn't come up with something.

    I don't think the pollster needs to have any expertise on any one platform or another. I believe their statements about that are based on the fact that they appear to do a lot of work for the various OS publishers.

    I'd like to know more about the details of the poll. Until then, I'll simply say "hmmm...interesting" and then wait to see what else crops up!

    Well, given that in their "About Us" section does not mention any expertise in RIM, I would say that they have a bias towards a particular set of devices.
    The study itself is flawed in that it does not list any of their methodologies for attaining the data.
    So - another report of one company giving its opinion on something without any objectivity and it being quoted as gospel.

    40% of Blackberry users willing to trade in for an iPhone
    03-16-10 12:42 PM
  24. EnergyPlus's Avatar
    LOL!! I love it!

    As Benjamin Disraeli said - There are five kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, statistics, politicians quoting statistics, and novelists quoting politicians on statistics.
    03-16-10 12:45 PM
  25. olblueyez's Avatar
    Even if those numbers were accurate those people would be right back ASAP after discovering the limitations of the iPhone and the Apple mind control techniques.
    03-16-10 12:47 PM
78 1234
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD