Can BBM kill facebook?

With reports suggesting that BlackBerry has met with facebook regarding a potential acquisition one must wonder why facebook would be interested.

Surely facebook would be far less interested in getting into BlackBerry's space (hardware) than they would be in keeping BlackBerry out of their space (social networking).

Which leads me to wonder: Who will knock off facebook in social networking? Could BBM be positioning itself to eventually dethrone facebook?

I assume that most people that use both BBM and facebook had more facebook contacts than BBM contacts. How has that ratio changed in the past week? Please comment with your previous and current facebook to BBM contact ratio.

In the past week my ratio went from about 17:1 to about 7:1.

Kill? What do you think? Lol.

Z10STL100-4/10.2.0.1767

No to T/S title's question. HELL NO
However earlier I was thinking & BBM was sort of like Twitter prior to Twitter.
You have contacts. You update status. Contacts comment on status. Repeat.

Facebooks interest is probably for a couple of reasons.

1. Patents. Can't ever really get into the devices game without having patents as a defense. Otherwise they're stuck in a losing partnering situation.

2. BBM. Why not? Substantial and growing user base that can be advertised to. Continue to operate it as a separate service, but integrate the FB ads. Etc.

But I don't think FB sees BBM as any sort of threat at this point.


Z10STL100-4/10.2.0.1767

Before BBMx - 423 Facebook friends, 0 BBM contacts. Last week - 423 FB friends, 2 BBM contacts. Today - 424 FB friends(old friend just joined yesterday) and back to 0 BBM contacts.

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Patents and technology.... that is all FaceBook wants.


BBM as it stands today does not have a chance of saving BlackBerry, let alone killing off the biggest social network on the planet.

But there is potential there! Give BBM time it could grow into a full fledged social network. First saw a Japness messenger/social network yesterday - LINE is a good indicator of where BBM could go... With money and a lot of software programing talent - things BlackBerry doesn't have.

Originally Posted by raysgrumpy

Before BBMx - 423 Facebook friends, 0 BBM contacts. Last week - 423 FB friends, 2 BBM contacts. Today - 424 FB friends(old friend just joined yesterday) and back to 0 BBM contacts.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using CB Forums mobile app

So that's a no? :p

Originally Posted by southlander

Kill? What do you think? Lol.

Z10STL100-4/10.2.0.1767

OK, "kill" may have been too strong a word. But given that technology always evolves surely you must believe, as I do, that someone will *eventually* knock facebook from its position as the number one social networking site. The question is Who? and When? Replace "kill" with "dethrone" if it pleases you, but my real question is: will "BBM" be the Who and will "within the next few years" be the When?

Originally Posted by JakeTheCat

OK, "kill" may have been too strong a word. But given that technology always evolves surely you must believe, as I do, that someone will *eventually* knock facebook from its position as the number one social networking site. The question is Who? and When? Replace "kill" with "dethrone" if it pleases you, but my real question is: will "BBM" be the Who and will "within the next few years" be the When?

I tend to agree with scalemaster. Anything's theoretically "possible". As it stands I think BBM under BlackBerry's control grows and becomes/remains a player in device to device messaging. Probably the #2 in active users assuming no big mis-steps. And assuming they polish up the iOS and Android versions quickly and add the missing features.

But I just don't think BB has the resources or talent to match the big players. The young creative minds are flowing into Google, FB, etc. and into startups the big guys will buy up if there is some amazing innovation at one of those. I feel BB might need to sell BBM for it to truly flourish.

Okay, so assuming it gets to #2 what is keeping the people who use BBM going back to facebook at that point? Not BBM as it is today, but BBM after they "polish up the iOS and Android versions quickly and add the [obvious] missing features" and move to #2. Getting to the #2 position implies several hundreds of millions of BBM users. Several hundereds of millions of BBM users that become less engaged with facebook is a serious threat to facebook's business model. As we have seen with BB over the past few years, any decline in market share and public perception can become a slipery slope very quickly. I'm asking the community because my experience this past week suggests strongly that there is potential for a shift that may be in the early stages. Please vote in the poll and/or comment to let me know specifically what you have experienced this past week.

Originally Posted by raysgrumpy

Before BBMx - 423 Facebook friends, 0 BBM contacts. Last week - 423 FB friends, 2 BBM contacts. Today - 424 FB friends(old friend just joined yesterday) and back to 0 BBM contacts.

Sent from my Nexus 4 using CB Forums mobile app

So let me get this straigt - you downloaded BBM to your Nexus 4, you added two contacts, and within days... they deleted you? You deleted them? You uninstalled the app? How did that work exactly? Are you telling me that none of your facebook contacts downloaded BBM? I am curious because in my experience I have seen an unexpected number of people downloading the app and posting their pins to FB.

I downloaded BBM to try it out. I convinced one of my friends to try it and had my daughter download it. We all tried it and we all deleted the app within a week. I live in central Florida and have seen absolutely nothing about BlackBerry on Facebook. I see stories about people sharing pins all over Facebook, but haven't even seen one mention of it personally. I'm curious if all these people that see all of their friends posting pins are in Canada?


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Good catch. You are right about the Canadian friends - many are from Vancouver, Calgary or Toronto where I have done a lot of business. Which reminds me of right about the time I learned about facebook - it was a small site I hadn't really heard of that was catching on with people I knew in Toronto but since I value privacy I was very reluctant to get on board.

Oh Canada...

I also recall getting some comfort when facebook committed to maintaining my privacy forever: "Just so everyone knows, Facebook is not selling any of your information. It never has and never will. Period."

Look at the share price of BBRY since BBM was released. It's done nothing. Even as the rest of the market has moved to all time highs. That should tell you what the business world thinks of BBM as it relates to the value of BBRY. It's a wash. Any potential benefit from all of those users is offset by the decreased hardware sales from Blackberry users who can now switch to iOS or Android without losing their BBM contacts.

Fact - the market has valued the net potential of BBM as zero. No, it don't wait for the monetization. Investors buy as soon as they sense there is true potential.

Hey Maggie, I don't think you get it. Either that or perhaps you missed the letter of intent to buy BlackBerry for $9/share. That is going to put a cap (and floor) on things until it falls through. Nobody wants to pay a penny over $9 no matter how much potential they see or how much value they assign to anything - not when there is a clear risk that value may be taken away from them for $9. The only reason the share price should move away (up or down) from somewhere slightly below $9 is if there is reason to believe this offer is going to fall through.

Your point regarding the share price may have some validity if there was no offer in place but as it stands it really doesn't make sense. The fact is the market is handcuffed from expressing its evaluation of BBM's new launch success given the existing letter of intent and the board's unfortunate public support of it.

As an aside, the board would be foolish (and liable) if they were to rely on the recent market action (or lack thereof) as reflecting anything other than the $9 anchor they threw out. They must understand by now that they can't justify accepting $9 as fair value so they would do well to let go of that anchor at their earliest convenience (November 4th) lest they give the appearance of manipulation. With only one (dubious) proposal to buy the company the board has not entered Revlon mode so their fiduciary obligation is still fair value, not highest bidder.

Originally Posted by raysgrumpy

I downloaded BBM to try it out. I convinced one of my friends to try it and had my daughter download it. We all tried it and we all deleted the app within a week. I live in central Florida and have seen absolutely nothing about BlackBerry on Facebook. I see stories about people sharing pins all over Facebook, but haven't even seen one mention of it personally. I'm curious if all these people that see all of their friends posting pins are in Canada?


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What do you use in its place?

Originally Posted by JakeTheCat

So let me get this straigt - you downloaded BBM to your Nexus 4, you added two contacts, and within days... they deleted you? You deleted them? You uninstalled the app? How did that work exactly? Are you telling me that none of your facebook contacts downloaded BBM? I am curious because in my experience I have seen an unexpected number of people downloading the app and posting their pins to FB.

No one here wants it. The people I know who downloaded it did it cause I made them. No one from Facebook downloaded BBM for me either, or mentioned it, or commented on the link to BBM.COM I shared. They Don't Care about it. They have Facebook messenger. Why should they bother. I think people here have convinced themselves that BBM is a lot better than it actually is.

Also, has BBM always been about pin spamming and flexing contact count?

Sent from my Galaxy S III using Tapatalk 4

Originally Posted by JakeTheCat

Okay, so assuming it gets to #2 what is keeping the people who use BBM going back to facebook at that point? Not BBM as it is today, but BBM after they "polish up the iOS and Android versions quickly and add the [obvious] missing features" and move to #2. Getting to the #2 position implies several hundreds of millions of BBM users. Several hundereds of millions of BBM users that become less engaged with facebook is a serious threat to facebook's business model. As we have seen with BB over the past few years, any decline in market share and public perception can become a slipery slope very quickly. I'm asking the community because my experience this past week suggests strongly that there is potential for a shift that may be in the early stages. Please vote in the poll and/or comment to let me know specifically what you have experienced this past week.

I don't believe BBM is competing primarily with Facebook. I agree with today's crackberry article that says the main competitor is SMS.

All my friends use Facebook yet none of them use FB Messenger. They all text. They aren't even aware of what BBM , whatsaapp, KIK, etc even are.

Z10STL100-4/10.2.0.1767

What is it about?

Posted by Refan's Family

Honestly, I have 147 FB friends and the list hasn't been growing for awhile. I check FB once or twice a day to see what everyone is up to. I never chat with any of my FB friends and rarely send a message to anyone.

I recently downloaded BBM for Android and added 10 pin within a week. I'm more proactive socializing on BBM then FB. I send and receive more BBM messages then text messages per day.

In my opinion, I don't think FB is going anywhere soon but I don't see it competing directly with BBM either. FB will continue to be the place I go to check up on my friends status but BBM is where the real social activity is happening.

Originally Posted by JakeTheCat

What do you use in its place?

I use Hangouts with my family and a few friends, sms with others and use Facebook messenger as a last resort. If I don't have someone's number, I can get a hold of them through Facebook (all but a few of my contacts are on it.) With unlimited texting being the norm in the US, most people I know still use sms primarily. With the KitKat update, Hangouts is getting sms integration, so I'll use that almost exclusively

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