Simple "common sense" math on why late US release is a fail

Lets consider that I was amped up enough to infect my wife and my brother with the urge to buy the Z10. That's three guaranteed sales for Blackberry. Toss in one more guarantee because I was going to buy another one for my wife's sister in Ecuador so that they could BBM. That's four sales from one household.

Now consider that I've been spreading the word of BB10 to my friends and coworkers. Two friends are recent BB to Apple converts that are still new enough to the Apple ecosystem to come back. Three friends are Apple guys, but saw my enthusiasm for BB10 and were genuinely excited to see my newly purchased Z10, and I had a really good feeling one was definitely going to switch because he was an oldschool BB user, and another one was probably 80% to switch once he comes up for contract renewal in a few weeks. Also, I don't have a huge circle of people I hang out with, so you can imagine this part will scale even higher for those who do.

So lets see, if BB released in the US in early Feb...

5 definite sales, 3 high probability, 1 interested

vs. late March release

2 definite sales, 3 high probability, 4 interested

Definite sales keeps me and my brother, but loses my wife (current iPhone) because she'll get caught up in the new iPhone hoopla. With my wife out her sister is out. The definite friend moves into high probability because like my wife he is current iPhone, but is also likely to get caught up in new iPhone rumors. Everyone that was high probability moves into the interested column.

Bottom line: BB could have used this lull in smartphone news to really seal the deal with potential US buyers. The delay causes buyers to start holding out for the next new iPhone/Android when release time finally rolls around.

Common sense dictates that you do everything in your power to release early in a market you publicly stated you need to win back.

While I disagree with parts of your comment and don't disagree with others, I think one of the major things that RIM/BB missed the boat on is that they are spending a nice chunk of change on a SuperBowl advert.... so what better way to capture an intrigued audience than to be able to go into an AT&T/Sprint/Tmob/Verizon store the next day or the next weekend and try out a new Z10 and/or Q10? Not having the Z10 ready for the US market until March (and rumor has it the Q10 until April), isn't a very good use of the high buck advert that they bought for this weekend. I equate this scenario to me yelling to a crowd of people that I'm giving everyone a free $100 bill........ but then I telling them to come back in a month because I don't have the cash yet... most will either forget, have other stuff come up, or just not bother because the excitement of the moment has passed. And before you flame me, keep in mind that I'm a huge RIM fan and can't wait for BB10 to come to AT&T.. so I'm not trying to bash RIM.

Very good points. Have you consider maybe the problem is not RIM (Sorry BlackBerry) but the US Carriers? Also, US were (and still is) the biggest bashers of BB and maybe they are being punished for their lack of respect...lol. I don't know, but I do not see it as being BB's fault... My $0.02

The fact of the matter is that you don't know. You'd think that Blackberry would have learned its lesson and given some units to the carriers in anticipation of this but again Blackberry is not learning from its mistakes.

I think the possibility is there that this "delay" will increase the interest in the U.S. market. Once America sees the rest of the world loving and praising their new BB's, Americans will be like, " oh yes, more BB for me please!"

People that were gonna buy a BB10 phone are still going to. Why? Because there are no new phones coming out before BB10. The wait is just a little longer.

That's my opinion anyway.

Yeah, that Superbowl move nearly 60 days prior to US release really boggles my mind. I understand Superbowl commercials take on a life of their own, but lets face it, it's majority US audience...and yet no phone to check out and play with after BB piques audience curiousity. Huge disappointment.

And I've seen a few of the "BB just getting revenge on the US for always bashing them" type comments, but you don't cut off your nose to spite your face.

Originally Posted by JWWDUKE

I think the possibility is there that this "delay" will increase the interest in the U.S. market. Once America sees the rest of the world loving and praising their new BB's, Americans will be like, " oh yes, more BB for me please!"

People that were gonna buy a BB10 phone are still going to. Why? Because there are no new phones coming out before BB10. The wait is just a little longer.

That's my opinion anyway.

I gave this some thought too. Maybe a scarcity tactic by the marketing minds. Make it seem like the really cool product is just beyond US borders, so media builds hype reporting that US consumers are paying premium $2000 bucks on Ebay to pick up this elusive BB.

But then I gave it some further thought, and the reason for my original post. NOW is the time BB needs to SEAL THE DEAL on potential buyers. People are ready to pull the trigger, let them shoot! By March everyone is going to be caught up in Galaxy and iPhone rumors. This is a horrible misstep on BB/carriers.

It looks like americans think they are more important then the rest of the world....why would BB wait for the US to be ready?

Originally Posted by aristoftw

By March everyone is going to be caught up in Galaxy and iPhone rumors. This is a horrible misstep on BB/carriers.

This.

Except that they won't be rumors, the GS4 will have been announced (if not released) by March, and if you think Apple won't seize this opportunity and at least announce something regarding the new iPhone before the Z10 release, you're kidding yourself...it would be stupid for them not to. Lots of sales will be lost by BlackBerry, though the carriers will still get their sales through other devices.

Originally Posted by W1ck3D86

It looks like americans think they are more important then the rest of the world....why would BB wait for the US to be ready?

Great first post

Originally Posted by W1ck3D86

It looks like americans think they are more important then the rest of the world....why would BB wait for the US to be ready?

Who said anything about BB waiting on the US? The argument here is that BB not releasing until March is detrimental to BB grabbing US marketshare, something they've stated is a priority.

I am from the USA (NYC) my guess is that Blackberry and the U.S. carriers collectively realized that the U.S. market is attracted to big name apps when it comes to their mobile platforms of choice. The success of BB10 is mostly on platform converts as opposed to die hard BB fans like myself. Since they knew that Apps such as Skype, OoVoO and possibly instagram wont be available for like a month or so then why waste their time and release what most will call "a 1/2 baked device in the U.S."... I am calmly going to wait for the device to reach to the states. Simple!

So let's say it really is the carriers dicking around... Are they supposed to deprive the UK and Canada by not releasing the Z10 till March just because of the US? Blackberry could be and is very successful with hardly any support from the US at all. As others have stated the US is highly critical of BlackBerry whereas the rest of the world still supports them. 80 million is a significant number.

Remember when thorsten said that on January 30 he will announce the date of when we will be able to buy the phones? Well it's now jan 31 and the U.S still doesn't know when they can buy them other than the month of march. I definitely feel lied to and misled. Basically, 2 countries have release dates. Sorry but job not well done BlackBerry. After all of this waiting, we still have to wait for even a release day. Huge middle finger to the U.S in my opinion. Save the "it's the carriers fault" comments I find it incredibly hard to believe its all on the carriers. We shouldn't have to come up with reasons as to why it isn't available yet. It should just be available. Now look at all of the media ripping on them because they don't have phones to review instead. Terrible job here

Simple common sense. The rest of the world represents a bigger market than the US alone.

The US smartphone market has been the biggest hater on BlackBerry as a competitor. Apple and Google have the home court advantage in the US.

America isn't more important than the rest of the world, despite personal opinion. They can wait and talk themselves to death.

BlackBerry is just going to bury them with their own confusion.

Please tell me why anyone expected a release in the US yesterday. Never did RIM say other than a 1st quarter "release". Go back in the forums for the last couple of months. The debates have predominately been the pros and cons of a March or later release. It had been emphasized in the CB eds and forums time and again that the Feb date was an announcement, not a release date, but many chose to speculate it would be a release. Speculators are the cause of this "delay" outrage, not RIM. I personally was getting caught up in it as well and was hoping for a release here, but to be fair, RIM NEVER gave a Feb date for US release. Now, come end of 1st quarter and we see no release here in the US, THEN we'll have reason to be pissed.

.........Really folks? No one is saying it was a mistake to release in Canada and UK first. I'm glad for them and glad for BB. The people arguing that the late US release is a mistake are arguing SIMPLY that. We're not saying worldwide release should have been held up to accomodate the US.

This shouldn't be turning into a country vs country pissing contest.

[QUOTE=aristoftw;7912325]I gave this some thought too. Maybe a scarcity tactic by the marketing minds. Make it seem like the really cool product is just beyond US borders, so media builds hype reporting that US consumers are paying premium $2000 bucks on Ebay to pick up this elusive BB.

But then I gave it some further thought, and the reason for my original post. NOW is the time BB needs to SEAL THE DEAL on potential buyers. People are ready to pull the trigger, let them shoot! By March everyone is going to be caught up in Galaxy and iPhone rumors. This is a horrible misstep on BB/car

or maybe this is what the carriers are pushing for, Sprint has to sell so many iphones so they will only sell the Q10 which comes out in April, so how many will waite, or will they be inticed into buying something. BB fans need to put the pressure on.

Agree, don't know how people jumped to that conclusion.

Originally Posted by JWWDUKE

I think the possibility is there that this "delay" will increase the interest in the U.S. market. Once America sees the rest of the world loving and praising their new BB's, Americans will be like, " oh yes, more BB for me please!"

People that were gonna buy a BB10 phone are still going to. Why? Because there are no new phones coming out before BB10. The wait is just a little longer.

That's my opinion anyway.

I agree.

And I think it gives time for people to go and really look into the product. I for one am never to see a commercial for something and run out to get it the next day. That is stupid. I want to see what others think first.

I'm pretty sure RIM announced ages ago that there was going to be a worldwide launch that the US market would be on the end of to build up hype and momentum. Don't hate just because they were honest and no one listened. Memories are short.

I think the US delay is pretty simple. The US is the market BB has lost the most ground in, the select few who are still loyal are the "keyboard holdouts" as they're known (If you still have a storm at this point, you're out of your mind). Blackberry didn't want to launch the Z10 without the Q10 at it's side. I think its the right move. Why have a launch where the loyal people are going to go "meh, I'll wait til March and see the keyboard one"?

It's not an ideal situation for people who are annoyed and have been waiting forever. But lets be honest - anyone using a BB at this point was holding out for a Z10 or Q10, and anyone who says they're gonna buy an iPhone or Android now at this point in the game is doing it out of spite. Anyone who was waiting to switch to BB - that might be an issue. But, I still think the impact of a delayed US launch is being exaggerated. It's not the first time a company has done an international launch before the US (Galaxy Note anyone?) and it won't be the last either.

Originally Posted by netwerx1

This.

Except that they won't be rumors, the GS4 will have been announced (if not released) by March, and if you think Apple won't seize this opportunity and at least announce something regarding the new iPhone before the Z10 release, you're kidding yourself...it would be stupid for them not to. Lots of sales will be lost by BlackBerry, though the carriers will still get their sales through other devices.

And this is why I am not happy with the march release. NOT because I think I am better than the rest of the world...

Originally Posted by aristoftw

By March everyone is going to be caught up in Galaxy and iPhone rumors. This is a horrible misstep on BB/carriers.

Bingo. Everyone forgets how fast tech moves. I firmly believe the US should've launched last. I believe that's been rumored for months. But March is pushing their luck with the US market.

Remember when the launch was first delayed into January? Everyone put their positive spin on it and said, "Hey, it can be a good thing, because all the holiday craziness will have passed and BlackBerry will have the entire spotlight to themselves during an otherwise quiet time of year on the tech front." And guess what? That's exactly what happened. Yesterday on Engadget, the entire first page and half of the second were nothing but BlackBerry posts. The Wall St. Journal. The Today Show. The New York Times. CNet.com. TechCrunch. All of these had BlackBerry on the front page of the sites. The plan had worked. BlackBerry stood alone in the tech world and had their chance to shine alone. And at the launch event, they did a pretty formidable job of taking advantage of it. The reviews, while not glowing, were all pretty positive. The momentum they were trying to build was there. And how do they capitalize? By pushing the US launch back until after Mobile World Congress, at which time we'll undoubtedly be pummeled with announcements of newer, more powerful devices that are scheduled for the following few months.

I don't think the sky is falling here, but to think that this helps in any way is kind of kidding yourself. It's the one reason that I think something came up with the American carriers that went unforeseen by BlackBerry, cuz this has to hurt them more than it helps.

You don't know what BB marketing has planned in US the coming weeks.

It could be a full on blitz 'a la Samsung style' for a month leading up to the March launches!

Maybe the Superbowl ad is the start of things to come!

Be patient America! Canada still loves you! :)