[jhimmel]

I put my prediction in the poll.

Figured that. I'm sure most of us are using the CB10 app on our BB's, and thus are not seeing it. Guess it's an impossible feature to add... sigh

Posted via CB10

[anon(679606)]

Figured that. I'm sure most of us are using the CB10 app on our BB's, and thus are not seeing it. Guess it's an impossible feature to add... sigh

Posted via CB10

With his new Priv CB can migrate to yahoo groups & there can enter polls...

Posted via CB10

[dejanh]

Dang can't see if there is a poll with CB app

Not to worry. The mobile website does not show it either.

[anon(679606)]

You could borrow a friend's galaxy or iFone to vote...

Not to worry. The mobile website does not show it either.

[dejanh]

You could borrow a friend's galaxy or iFone to vote...

I'm using an iPhone and it still doesn't work

[Uzi]

I'm using an iPhone and it still doesn't work

I predict this time you will only get 1 priv not ten like before!!

[dejanh]

I predict this time you will only get 1 priv not ten like before!!

Two and I agree!

[Rustybronco]

Prediction? I believe they will over price the device from the git go.

How could a CEO not know how to operate a device which quite possibly be the the answer to it's sagging device sales?

The more I look at everything that has been put forth, the more I think management hasn't a clue how to run this company.

[anon(679606)]

The key is to have the browser in developer settings desktop mode...

I'm using an iPhone and it still doesn't work

[Oilers24]

Why would I want to be in desktop mode when viewing a site for BlackBerry devices?

Posted via CB10

[JeepBB]

I can't see the poll on Tapatalk either.

My prediction...

Chen says they need 5M/year to be profitable. So, I reckon they'll achieve the necessary 1.25M in the first quarter, and that'll be it... both for the Priv and the Hardware division. Subsequent quarters won't hit the 1.25M mark, and eventually the Priv will follow BB10 into the sunset.

Reasoning: There are ( from what I've seen posted) enough BB diehards who will pay (seemingly) any amount to acquire the Priv, and probably enough general consumers intrigued by the slider form-factor to try it. Once they're done, I doubt there are enough additional buyers out there who will sustain those sales. Most consumers will buy either cheaper Android handsets, or a flagship from one of the established Android vendors.

The BB Hub et al, will live on and appear on other Android phones as a download from the Play Store as previously announced by Chen.

I give the Priv until next Summer to do... Or die.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[deptech]

300,000 to 500,000 per quarter :-(

This is a niche product, they need a high end all touch (keyboard-less) device that is reasonably priced to get there sales numbers up IMO.

[Omar Alsahli]

LOL at people voting less than BB10
BB10 fanboys are hilarious

[yyz321]

If it does outsell BB10, I don't think it will do so by any significant margin.
However, that in itself would make the device a success.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

No where close to Chen's 5 Million....

Now if Verizon and all the US Carrier's have it, if the US price is $499, if there is marketing EVERYWHERE (HTC level at least), and if the phone has no performance issue (like say BBM being baked into the phone). I could be very wrong.

The thing is... if the PRIV does flop. Do you really think Chen is going to wait nine months to lay off everyone working on Android?

[Soulstream]

However bad BB10 sells I don't think it will sell better at first. There are more BB10 devices on the market and just 1 BB android device. I still think it will sell better than the passport or classic in the same timeframe.

[jhimmel]

I can't see the poll on Tapatalk either.

My prediction...

Chen says they need 5M/year to be profitable. So, I reckon they'll achieve the necessary 1.25M in the first quarter, and that'll be it... both for the Priv and the Hardware division. Subsequent quarters won't hit the 1.25M mark, and eventually the Priv will follow BB10 into the sunset.

Reasoning: There are ( from what I've seen posted) enough BB diehards who will pay (seemingly) any amount to acquire the Priv, and probably enough general consumers intrigued by the slider form-factor to try it. Once they're done, I doubt there are enough additional buyers out there who will sustain those sales. Most consumers will buy either cheaper Android handsets, or a flagship from one of the established Android vendors.

The BB Hub et al, will live on and appear on other Android phones as a download from the Play Store as previously announced by Chen.

I give the Priv until next Summer to do... Or die.

Can't find fault with anything you said above. Still, tough one to call.

Posted via CB10

[mathking606]

I can't see the poll on Tapatalk either.

My prediction...

Chen says they need 5M/year to be profitable. So, I reckon they'll achieve the necessary 1.25M in the first quarter, and that'll be it... both for the Priv and the Hardware division. Subsequent quarters won't hit the 1.25M mark, and eventually the Priv will follow BB10 into the sunset.

Reasoning: There are ( from what I've seen posted) enough BB diehards who will pay (seemingly) any amount to acquire the Priv, and probably enough general consumers intrigued by the slider form-factor to try it. Once they're done, I doubt there are enough additional buyers out there who will sustain those sales. Most consumers will buy either cheaper Android handsets, or a flagship from one of the established Android vendors.

The BB Hub et al, will live on and appear on other Android phones as a download from the Play Store as previously announced by Chen.

I give the Priv until next Summer to do... Or die.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

He needs 5 million devices not all will be priv ))

Posted via CB10

[jhimmel]

He needs 5 million devices not all will be priv ))

Posted via CB10

Interesting point. Half Priv,and half from the rest of the BB10 line up. If the Priv is not a complete flop, a ramp up of Android devices as BB10 devices fade away? The whole thing is a truly sorry state of affairs.

Posted via CB10

[JeepBB]

He needs 5 million devices not all will be priv ))

Posted via CB10

True, but I don't reckon it materially affects things.

BB sold 800k phones last quarter. The straight-line trend hits zero 9 months from now. If the Priv doesn't sell big, it can't count on BB10 sales to underpin the numbers.

Interestingly, 15% of those sales are BBOS (still), and I can see that continuing.

But, basically Priv has to do those numbers all on its own!

EDIT: I'll just clarify that I think BB10 *had* 9 months before reaching zero sales. I believe Chen's simultaneous announcement of the Priv, and the "bug-fixes-and-security-updates-only" deal for BB10 will ensure that BB10 sales will fall off a cliff next quarter. I doubt the 680k BB10 sales (85% of 800k) this quarter will gently drop by a third each quarter - they'll pretty much cease immediately. After all, what possible benefit would new buyers see in a clearly EOL'd OS?

So, again, the Priv will need to do it all sales-wise, with a small cushion provided by residual BB10 sales and the 100k folk who are still buying BBOS (gotta love 'em and their staying power )

[Deckard79]

I'd say the same - mainly purchased by existing BlackBerry enthusiasts, and few others.

The main reason I believe this, is pricepoint. That's highly prohibitive - I really can't see average consumers paying more for this over, say, the new Nexus handsets.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

He needs 5 million devices not all will be priv ))

Posted via CB10

True... but sales of BBOS devices is pretty much over (how many of these are still in a warehouse somewhere). BB10 sales, are going to drop like a stone as Carriers and users are not going to be interested in a dead end device... Would actually expect only one or two devices to remain in production. So only movement will be enterprise replacements. In six months the BBOS/BB10 sales could easily be down to 100K a quarter... meaning the bulk of sales will be firmly on the PRIV's shoulders.

And the big problem.... in six months the PRIV is going to be a middle grade device going up against the latest batch of new Android Super Phones. Chen's number is not about device movements, it's about profits. If he hopes his PRIV can follow the iPhone and keeps it price over a 12 month period. Then that 5 million number isn't going to work, cause he's playing in the Android pond now. Now if he has accounted for having to mark it down $100 after 30 days and then another $100 in six months for that 5 million goal.... that should work. Except for if the price is really as high as it seems to be.... there'll have to be a few more mark downs in there.

[anon(3983727)]

I think you guys have very realistic predictions so far. I can see any one of these scenarios going down but I really don't see it as a blow away success. I honestly think they wont gain many more users than they lose by going to android. There is simply too much competition and security software really isn't what the average consumer cares about. The good is the name Blackberry is on more peoples minds and they may actually capture some attention. If they do something next to really shock and awe I can see them starting to get some sales.

[totaldynamic]

I'm pretty confident the Priv is going to quite significantly outsell BB10.

Personally, I think if the phone is fairly well advertised aswell as being supported by the carriers (for example most UK phone shops nowadays don't even have a single BlackBerry device on show) then people will like it. I struggle to see what isn't to like myself.

The specs for this phone are pretty amazing, its a high-end all touch to those who want one, a slider to those who want a keyboard and its both to everyone in between. It runs Android which means an abundance of apps, it's got an impressive camera, should have top security and already (based on Carphone Warehouse price) is cheaper than some of the other flagship's on the market.

If the average consumer can get over the fact that its a BlackBerry, then I'm confident they'd buy it.

[dejanh]

This poll has really taken off.