[howarmat]

@dolco: There are 2 ways Android users can download Priv apps.
1. They own a Priv, completely delete an app, and then reinstall it. (I'm only 90% sure about this one.)
2. They own some other Android device, but follow the steps outlined in this post: http://forums.crackberry.com/android...evice-1047203/
(I'm 100% sure about this one.)

I can easily imagine 10K-50K Android users wanting one of the great Priv-exclusive apps, and then embarking on the troublesome steps you have to take to install it.

option 2 has nothing to do with playstore. The apps were NOT obtained from the playstore. Its from a PRIV device dump. If you install them you can not update them via the playstore either.

Seriously some of you dont even look at what you are saying and posting. its funny really. I agree that playstore installs dont give exact indication of how many privs have been sold but I assure you that those 10000+ install are NOT from other devices and NOT from that many people uninstalling and reinstalling the app.

This is the most correct way to look at it.

I agree with you (I think?) When people say updates aren't counted, it means each update doesn't count as a new download.

Here's a simple way to say it: the count shown to users in the store is the total number of unique google accounts who have downloaded that apk from the play store. Whether that download was a new install or an upgrade is irrelevant. It's just the total count of unique users who have downloaded that apk so far.

But I think since not everyone has been to the play store to download hub, for example, the number of priv sales should be greater than the number of hub downloads. It could be 5x greater, 2x greater, or 20x greater. We'll see.

Once a user from a PRIV goes in and updates one of the BB apps (hub, camera, contacts, etc) it will then count towards the tally we see. If you dont ever update your hub app then it wont show in the numbers.

[Mark Sb]

You are, of course, correct. But my point was not really to use my own polling data to establish a conclusion, but rather to demonstrate - albeit, in an extremely unfair way - the deeply rooted problems with polling as a method of obtaining scientific proof, particularly in the case where the sample size is either small, or in some other way less than representative. To take it completely off topic for one minute, take a look at the polling data being published in the US related to the upcoming presidential elections. You can have two polls asking the exact same question both being conducted in "approved" and "scientific" ways, yet generating completely different results. It's all over the map. Polling is simply rarely a good way to establish scientific fact or reach factual conclusions. They are at most snippets of potential information that may or may not prove relevant in the final analysis.

Yes but you can take the averages. In my polling of 10 Lower Mainland malls, it averaged out to about 1.04 sales per day per store. If I multiply this by about 1350 retail stores across Canada it translates to 512,460 sales for the year. If we can apply these numbers to the US then we need only find how many retail stores are selling the Priv. I imagine once verizon, and maybe tmobil get in the game it could be upwards of 10,000 locations so that would translate to 3,796,000
So if we add them together we get 4,308,460 sales in North American retail stores alone...not including existing customers who just order one through their carrier. We still have to factor in the rest of the world and online sales as well.

In the end, it's all speculation based on some very loose facts and assumptions of course.

[kirson]

Yes but you can take the averages. In my polling of 10 Lower Mainland malls, it averaged out to about 1.04 sales per day per store. If I multiply this by about 1350 retail stores across Canada it translates to 512,460 sales for the year. If we can apply these numbers to the US then we need only find how many retail stores are selling the Priv. I imagine once verizon, and maybe tmobil get in the game it could be upwards of 10,000 locations so that would translate to 3,796,000
So if we add together we get 4,308,460 sales in North American retail stores alone...not including existing customers who just order on through their carrier. We still have to factor in the rest of the world and online sales as well.

OK, I think we've hijacked this thread long enough. If you want to reply to this message, I'll let you have the last word. Here's my last word: just assume for argument's sake that the next two malls you went to had sold no PRIV phones. Do all your math - the answer is wildly different. And assume for a moment that if you went to 50 malls in rural West Virginia the average sales per store per day were 0.01. What would your math tell you then? Just because you are using an average of your own sample set doesn't make the conclusions any more valid. Look, the larger your sample set, and the more representative of the overall market, the more accurate your conclusion. If you sampled every single store in North America, then your conclusion would be 100% scientifically accurate. But using a sample set of 10 in a non-representative geography and applying it to all North America is simply not scientific and your conclusions are almost exactly as valid as my poll of the 5 blocks around my office that didn't include even a single mobile phone store. Peace and Love.

[Mark Sb]

option 2 has nothing to do with playstore. The apps were NOT obtained from the playstore. Its from a PRIV device dump. If you install them you can not update them via the playstore either.

Seriously some of you dont even look at what you are saying and posting. its funny really. I agree that playstore installs dont give exact indication of how many privs have been sold but I assure you that those 10000+ install are NOT from other devices and NOT from that many people uninstalling and reinstalling the app.

This is the most correct way to look at it.



Once a user from a PRIV goes in and updates one of the BB apps (hub, camera, contacts, etc) it will then count towards the tally we see. If you dont ever update your hub app then it wont show in the numbers.

This was mentioned before but the naysayers keep trying to sweep it under the rug. If these counts depend on users manually going to google playstore and doing the updates then you can multiply those download numbers by at least 10 if not more...because at least 9 out of 10 people would have no clue about the update or where to get it.

[howarmat]

This was mentioned before but the naysayers keep trying to sweep it under the rug. If these counts depend on users manually going to google playstore and doing the updates then you can multiply those download numbers by at least 10 if not more...because at least 9 out of 10 people would have no clue about the update or where to get it.

most users i assume do know to go into the appstore and hit the update all button. They might not get the popup saying that the Camera has an update but if they go to update other apps in the gplay store then they will also see the updates for the bb apps. I would also assume this bug is now fixed either with the OS update or just fixed on the gplay side by BB

[undone]

Ahhhhh. Yes. That's what I thought you were getting at. The glaring problem here is that it begs the question that the Android sales necessarily will be fewer than the BB10 sales. There's simply no way to know that in advance of trying it, and so no, closing the handset division in advance of experimenting with Android would not have made sense unless one had every reason to believe there was no chance to make inroads in the market or unless one had some kind of prescience or precognition. Neither of which were obviously true.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

Ah...belief.

They changed nothing in there release of the Priv except it was Android. It might as well have been BB10. The one element is not going to lead them to glorious success. 'If you build it, they will come' is a great mantra but not necessarily sound business practice.

Handsets are marked for death in BlackBerry. The Priv is a showcase device to be able to sell the software and demonstrate what the various hardware patents have the ability to do.

BBOS to BB10 was a move to keep Handsets going (failed). The move to Android isn't anything more then a show at this point.

I stand by my last statement of what you quoted:

Making another handset with a Passport style launch isnt going to make them money.

[Mark Sb]

most users i assume do know to go into the appstore and hit the update all button. They might not get the popup saying that the Camera has an update but if they go to update other apps in the gplay store then they will also see the updates for the bb apps. I would also assume this bug is now fixed either with the OS update or just fixed on the gplay side by BB

I haven't done a manual update for my s5 since I got it. I usually just clear notifications when I see them. The only reason I've even heard about doing updates is this forum. I previously just assumed the phone would update itself...like Windows does. You may assume most users know how to do these things but in reality most don't. This is true of not only phones....look at cars...how many people do you think change their oil, or even know they should change their oil every 5000 km? This is extremely important maintenance but yet many people do not do it.

[yohannrjm]

Ah...belief.

They changed nothing in there release of the Priv except it was Android. It might as well have been BB10. The one element is not going to lead them to glorious success. 'If you build it, they will come' is a great mantra but not necessarily sound business practice.

Handsets are marked for death in BlackBerry. The Priv is a showcase device to be able to sell the software and demonstrate what the various hardware patents have the ability to do.

BBOS to BB10 was a move to keep Handsets going (failed). The move to Android isn't anything more then a show at this point.

I stand by my last statement of what you quoted:

Making another handset with a Passport style launch isnt going to make them money.

I think that your point is that making another handset (any handset) is not going to make them any money. Fair enough! That's very likely the case.

The point of this thread is that (to some extent) it doesn't matter, as the Priv will continue to be a good Android phone with an excellent PKB. For those of us who love this form factor, that's excellent.

The success of the Priv matters to BlackBerry itself, of course, and also to the continuation of more PKB Android phones from them, but if they go the way of the dodo, I imagine they'll sell the PKB technology to some other Android manufacturer and we'll continue to see PKB Android phones if the Priv is even moderately successful.

Companies come and go. Tech moves on. In five years, we'll probably have some other way to communicate and smartphones will have disappeared. https://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/...029.html?ltr=1

[d a elliott]

Ah...belief.

They changed nothing in there release of the Priv except it was Android. It might as well have been BB10. The one element is not going to lead them to glorious success. 'If you build it, they will come' is a great mantra but not necessarily sound business practice.

Handsets are marked for death in BlackBerry. The Priv is a showcase device to be able to sell the software and demonstrate what the various hardware patents have the ability to do.

BBOS to BB10 was a move to keep Handsets going (failed). The move to Android isn't anything more then a show at this point.

I stand by my last statement of what you quoted:

Making another handset with a Passport style launch isnt going to make them money.

I do not and never disagreed with that last statement. This was about you claiming that it made more sense to kill the handset division than go Android, and I pointed out that that kind of statement is filled with assumptions, at least one of which is not even reasonable. Like I said, there is absolutely no way to know that the Android experiment would fail in advance of doing it, and thus it didn't make "more sense" to kill the handset division...unless you think it was unreasonable to believe BlackBerry could grab 1-3% of the Android market. There is no successful business worth a salt that would not take a reasonable risk. Now, if you want to argue that it makes sense to kill it *after* the numbers come out, then I would agree provided that those numbers after 2 quarters are abysmal. Again, if you want to shift the focus of the conversation on to your other claim that a Passport style launch is not going to cut it, then I'd agree with that as well. I'm very critical of the exclusive AT&T launch as well as the advertising.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android

[app_Developer]

This was mentioned before but the naysayers keep trying to sweep it under the rug. If these counts depend on users manually going to google playstore and doing the updates then you can multiply those download numbers by at least 10 if not more...because at least 9 out of 10 people would have no clue about the update or where to get it.

It could be 9x or 10x or 5x or 20x. I wouldn't want to guess the multiplier until we see actual sales data from BB to match up against this. Then we can use that maybe use that multiplier to track sales in the future from there.

But I totally agree there is a multiplier that is certainly greater than 1:1!

[meltbox360]

option 2 has nothing to do with playstore. The apps were NOT obtained from the playstore. Its from a PRIV device dump. If you install them you can not update them via the playstore either.

Seriously some of you dont even look at what you are saying and posting. its funny really. I agree that playstore installs dont give exact indication of how many privs have been sold but I assure you that those 10000+ install are NOT from other devices and NOT from that many people uninstalling and reinstalling the app.

This is the most correct way to look at it.



Once a user from a PRIV goes in and updates one of the BB apps (hub, camera, contacts, etc) it will then count towards the tally we see. If you dont ever update your hub app then it wont show in the numbers.

Did you even bother to read the policy Google has on counting downloads posted earlier in the thread? Hint: you are wrong.

Posted via CB10

[meltbox360]

It could be 9x or 10x or 5x or 20x. I wouldn't want to guess the multiplier until we see actual sales data from BB to match up against this. Then we can use that maybe use that multiplier to track sales in the future from there.

But I totally agree there is a multiplier that is certainly greater than 1:1!

Well if we want to be entirely objective we would actually say we don't know if there is any relation between the two numbers that is rational. Sure there exists a multiplier to yield the actual number of devices sold, but that multiplier could be 1/2 or 50. No one knows for sure. Although less than 1 is very unlikely...

Posted via CB10

[Gadget Fann]

You are arguing over data that means nothing. Play store download counts? Really?

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android on the Priv

[ptpete]

Hey man good post. I think the importance here is that it is financially successful from BB's point of view. I think Chen kept it conservative and is keeping the margins high so I don't think the device numbers will be a blowout. But I think it has exceeded Chen's internal goals. This is a good thing.

Some fanboys/pumpers may be say that an opportunity was lost. The opportunity to make a bang and an capitalize on all the buzz. But I think this is a long term strategic shift that has made the first step. The device is decent and has gotten some really good reviews. There were no massive blowups on the software. Yea some small wierd things. Overheating/creaking/ Hub being a bit not so good. But it has not been torpedoed. Again this is an important thing.

This gives some runway for other carriers and for other products. (Vienna) and of course refinement of their flavor of Android.

The turn of the corner was hard but given all the possible risks involved, I'd say this has been a minor-mid level win for Blackberry.

[howarmat]

Did you even bother to read the policy Google has on counting downloads posted earlier in the thread? Hint: you are wrong.

Posted via CB10

what part am I wrong about and show me how im wrong. Also then explain the 10k-50k downloads in the playstore. if you can do that all with 100% certainly then yes i might be wrong...otherwise i bet i am pretty correct

[theboogeyman]

Thanks for the above post. The graph you included looks like US market share by OS. Globally Android is still above 80% at least according to Forbes.

Posted via the CrackBerry App for Android on the Priv

and that 80% does not even make 5% of the profits that Apple makes, so what is the point of having the lion share of the market if most of those oems do not make a penny??

[qwerty4ever]

I think that both of you are wrong (and articles too). By your logic, if (first) updates (of preinstalled) apps are not counted there will be 0 downloads of BB hub from Google play.
Next ER will confirm that Google plays download numbers are relevant.

Those counts might be non-BlackBerry Android users or those of us with the earliest BlackBerry Privs (6 November 2015) that did not have any BlackBerry applications pre-installed. I hope there are more than 10000 users otherwise this might be BlackBerry's final smartphone.

[Mark Sb]

what part am I wrong about and show me how im wrong. Also then explain the 10k-50k downloads in the playstore. if you can do that all with 100% certainly then yes i might be wrong...otherwise i bet i am pretty correct

Those counts might be non-BlackBerry Android users or those of us with the earliest BlackBerry Privs (6 November 2015) that did not have any BlackBerry applications pre-installed. I hope there are more than 10000 users otherwise this might be BlackBerry's final smartphone.

What howarmat is failing to acknowledge is I have already proven that these download numbers cannot possibly represent sales.
http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...posed-1053644/

Don't take my word for it though...this has been confirmed already by these quotes. Explain to me how the launch could be "Magnitudes better" than the passport but sell less?

So can we derive from this that the Priv sold "Magnitudes better" than 200,000 devices during the initial launch?

"Chen didn't indicate how many units were sold online, but said ShopBlackBerry.com sold out the Passport in six hours, with Amazon.com selling iout in 10 hours before customers began leaving online orders that had reached 200,000 as of early today."

BlackBerry Passport sells out; CEO foresees profitability in 2015 | Computerworld

"Relative to Passport, Classic and Leap, and [over the] same time frame, this is magnitudes better than those launches,” Beard said, adding that for the first time in ages, BlackBerry could have more demand than supply for a product."

BlackBerry?s Phone Future Hinges on Priv?s Success | Re/code

[howarmat]

What howarmat is failing to acknowledge is I have already proven that these download numbers cannot possibly represent sales.
http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...posed-1053644/

Don't take my word for it though...this has been confirmed already by these quotes. Explain to me how the launch could be "Magnitudes better" than the passport but sell less?

you havent proved anything...you are just throwing theories out there that amount to nothing but a guess. No one will know anything until next friday. You might have guessed right you might have guessed wrong.

[Mark Sb]

you havent proved anything...you are just throwing theories out there that amount to nothing but a guess. No one will know anything until next friday. You might have guessed right you might have guessed wrong.

It's not a guess. You can't have a launch that is "magnitudes better" than the passport...and then sell less than the passport did. It makes no sense. If he had said "magnitudes worse" then you and the other naysayers would have jumped all over it.

[yohannrjm]

It's not a guess. You can't have a launch that is "magnitudes better" than the passport...and then sell less than the passport did. It makes no sense. If he had said "magnitudes worse" then you and the other naysayers would have jumped all over it.

Well, 'magnitudes better' is still not a quantitative statement. Your interpretation of the phrase is almost certainly the correct one, but if we're going to 'prove' anything we really should wait for the actual data.

I'm certainly nitpicking here, and I also expect the numbers to be the best BlackBerry has had for years, but we've had rosy projections in the past that didn't pan out. Anyway, for sustainability, the sales are going to have to start strong and remain strong for a while........especially at 1-2 new devices a year. They're not going to meet their 5 million target at the moment. If they hit 1 million, I'll be impressed, but I'm betting the number is in the low 100-thousand's. Still good, relative to the BB10 devices, but with room for improvement.

[Mark Sb]

Well, 'magnitudes better' is still not a quantitative statement. Your interpretation of the phrase is almost certainly the correct one, but if we're going to 'prove' anything we really should wait for the actual data.

I agree.