[kitmo]

Stakes are high as BlackBerry releases its first Android smartphone

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

On paper... almost anything looks doable.

What I'd really like to know is who BlackBerry hired that was familiar with both Android and running a successful Smartphone business. Because no one at BlackBerry has had a "clue" for six or seven years now. And whoever is in charge, they sure started off in a strange way...

Will be interesting to see how committed Chen is the PRIV, he's got billions in reserve.... now is the time to spend a "little" of it. If he really believes in the PRIV.

[early2bed]

All of these articles say the Priv is their final attempt at hardware. This one claims that if the Priv doesn't take off in the next few months that the decision will be made early next year.

Will be interesting to see how committed Chen is the PRIV, he's got billions in reserve.... now is the time to spend a "little" of it. If he really believes in the PRIV.

That's like saying "You've got a house and a car, how committed are you to quitting your job and starting a new career?" Those billions aren't John Chen's to burn in an effort to stay in the smartphone business. I'd say he has less than 10% that he could spend on smartphones before Prem Watsa would be calling him up and asking what he's trying to do with his money.

[cgk]

All of these articles say the Priv is their final attempt at hardware. This one claims that if the Priv doesn't take off in the next few months that the decision will be made early next year.

We will not not know for a few months at the very earliest - however BBRY will know within weeks internally - smartphones aren't boy bands, they start strong or not at all.

[early2bed]

We will not not know for a few months at the very earliest - however BBRY will know within weeks internally - smartphones aren't boy bands, they start strong or not at all.

Wait. Are you saying that all John Chen is going to do is give the Priv a Touchpad's chance before he pulls the plug on hardware? If he doesn't give it a year then we are going to be in for endless debate about whether he gave it a fair shot or not, especially if we don't get a Verizon launch. As a Brit, what do you think about the Carphone Warehouse exclusive? Is this really just a big market test to see if anyone will buy it?

[cgk]

Wait. Are you saying that all John Chen is going to do is give the Priv a Touchpad's chance before he pulls the plug on hardware?

The touchpad had its own unique elements to do with HP - I'm saying that BBRY will know pretty well within weeks the long-term chances of the Priv being successful. Typically you front-load the sales with lots of promotional activity. They will already have some idea from pre-sales data.

If he doesn't give it a year then we are going to be in for endless debate about whether he gave it a fair shot or not, especially if we don't get a Verizon launch. As a Brit, what do you think about the Carphone Warehouse exclusive? Is this really just a big market test to see if anyone will buy it?

I doubt we will ever know - if it fails, I doubt we would find out in a clear way - because they will reduce and reduce the price first.

If it is a big success then we will know that pretty quickly because they will get press releases out.

As for the CPW - I'm not sure simply because I cannot find out if it is a real exclusive or a "nobody wanted it" exclusive.

[bb10adopter111]

Wait. Are you saying that all John Chen is going to do is give the Priv a Touchpad's chance before he pulls the plug on hardware? If he doesn't give it a year then we are going to be in for endless debate about whether he gave it a fair shot or not, especially if we don't get a Verizon launch. As a Brit, what do you think about the Carphone Warehouse exclusive? Is this really just a big market test to see if anyone will buy it?

Common sense says that if you want to sell 5M units in 14 months, you had better sell 1M+ in the first three months, with a trend line that indicates continues strength. If that doesn't happen, there's no reason to expect improvement over time.

Premium Smart Phones have a shelf life of about 9 months before the heavy discounting starts.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Common sense says that if you want to sell 5M units in 14 months, you had better sell 1M+ in the first three months, with a trend line that indicates continues strength. If that doesn't happen, there's no reason to expect improvement over time.

Premium Smart Phones have a shelf life of about 9 months before the heavy discounting starts.

Posted via CB10

And I think its shrinking - typically I think Samsung devices are starting to see more movement on price within three months and my LG G4 (which hasn't sold great for LG) has seen quite a bit of discounting.