[RyanGermann]

So why are they still trying to sell handsets if it's so obviously a money drain?

Let's assume the end game is software and services. Why not lull the gullible BB10 users along until they can transition. Why invest the money in building an Android handset?

Strategically, Chen has said that REAL security requires an End to End solution. From MDM right down to the Device, kind of how BlackBerry has done it all along with BBOS devices attached to BES servers. I think most security analysts would agree (heaven help BlackBerry should Apple decide to release their own iOS-optimized MDM server software. Lights out.) that this "end to end" strategy is the most secure. Plus BlackBerry has a bunch of security patents that put them in a very competitive (leadership, I'd say) position, technically.

But in order for BlackBerry not to lose a boatload of money every quarter making devices that don't sell well enough, they are switching to Android so they WILL sell more devices and the handset division WILL be sustainable and they CAN continue to go to market with this continuum of security all "under one roof". It's a sound strategy (if you believe that the "app gap" is the only significant reason why BB10 devices didn't sell, and that only by solving the app gap could BB10 devices have broad enough appeal to be sustainable. Some people do believe that. Clearly BB management believes that.)

The "losing $100 per device" is relative to a world where all the costs of the handset division (including cost of parts and manufacturing / marketing / design / support for the devices) divided by the number of devices BlackBerry sells per year comes out to $100 loss per device.

Now, if you double the number of devices sold per year, the loss per device drops by more than half... it may drop down to $20 loss per device. If you TRIPLE the number of device sold per year, you end up making a profit, even when you factor in all the costs of paying the employees who design the devices, the cost to develop the hardware drivers for the OS (much less with Android because I think Qualcomm just releases those because they want to have their chips in many many devices by many manufacturers, but for BB10, BB has to foot that bill themselves) and so on.

So, switching to Android is supposed to mean that instead of only selling, say, 3 million devices per year (running BB10) BlackBerry will sell 10 million devices per year (running Android) and the handset division will be profitable.

And if they're profitable selling 10 million Android devices per year, will they do the math and conclude "we can invest in this second hardware line that will only sell 2 million devices per year, but cost as much to develop and support as the one that sells 10 million per year, and in and of itself, we will lose $100 on every device we sell". "When can we start!?" (not)

If BlackBerry made a BB10 version of the Priv, everyone of those sales would be a sale they didn't make with their Android experiment. They aren't in a position to compete with themselves.

...and every can of Diet Coke sold is one can of Coke Zero or Coke that isn't sold. So, the solution is to not sell Diet Coke. Or Coke Zero. Put another way, that is preposterous.

For the 'loyal' BlackBerry 10 user, you [we] are pretty much euchred. The choice you have is either jump on board with the Priv and adapt to Android. Jump ship altogether and perhaps you'll still have a piece of BlackBerry software when it all goes cross-platform officially. Or keep your current BB10 handset indefinitely.

The second and third choices are more likely for many BB10 users. We'd already be using Android if it were an acceptable option. The irony is that BlackBerry can't afford to customize Android to the degree necessary to satisfy BB10 diehards: it's not just the "BlackBerry" on the bezel that BB10 enthusiasts buy, and I think Chen may be confusing the concept of being a "BB10 loyalist" with being a "BlackBerry loyalist". It's an Android device, Mr. Chen. ANN-DUH-ROY-DUH. Na Ga Da!

The sad thing is, that even if the Priv is a success, it will largely be only because of its form factor.

...and the world will never know if the form factor in and of itself (large 16 x 9 high res screen AND stellar BlackBerry keyboard) is a significant draw, because BlackBerry never EVER made a PKB device that didn't also bear the burden of the 1:1 screen (TINY 1:1 screen for the Classic, Q5, and Q10).

BlackBerry is going to '*****' out all of the software that will make the Priv unique and there will be nothing left to differentiate it. At that point, other than having the brand on your phone, why would anyone buy a BlackBerry instead of any other manufacturer? And why would BlackBerry continue to make handsets at a minimal profit margin when they can just make software at much higher profits?

Yes, and so they should. The second they announced the Hub and whatever else were key differentiators for BB10 were going to be available on Android, iOS and even Windows Mobile, BB10 became even less appealing. And the idiots announce it, what a frikking YEAR before it would even be available to add to their revenues, only leading the device-buying world to think "Oh, so I don't NEED to buy a BB10 device to get all those features. OOOOoooo look! A new iPhone with slightly larger screen and imperceptably faster performance. Let's buy that!" SMH

[andy957]

BB10 has now garnered playbook status EOL

Yup

Posted from CB10

[anon(4297019)]

Conite is right, this is the hail Mary attempt. If the Priv doesn't sell 2.5 million units in the first quarter after release then the BlackBerry device division will be toast. Facts is facts.

Must mention also the great number of posters here on Crackberry who send back their phones for replacement several times because they don't like the scratch that was caused by dropping their phone. With a Slider can't you just imagine the complaints, I sat on my phone and now the screen doesn't slide up like the way it used to...

Passport SQW 100-1 OS 10.3.2.2639 Winnipeg,MB

[Troy Tiscareno]

How is it that money lost if BB10 enthusiasts are willing to pay the premium? You can say that "BB10 enthusiasts won't pay the premium", but who are you speaking for?

I'm positive there might be 10,000 people willing to pay a premium, but I'll be hugely generous and quintuple that number and say 50,000. And then I'll double it again to 100k. Even that isn't enough to make up for the costs, because even if driver costs were down to $5/unit, you'd still have LOTS of other costs to offer a BB10 version, including development of BB10 for the slider (beyond just the drivers), creating a process for end-users to convert their phones (very iffy, and individually reloading phones before sales is impossible given how retail devices are distributed and sold), and all of the support costs. Don't you think users, especially those who paid this premium, would demand support when their device got bricked during the upgrade process, or their data got lost, or whatever?

That's the point of a Kickstarter campaign: to test that. I'm sure you are aware that there have been lots of Kickstarter campaigns that far exceeded the expectation of the sponsors / inventors, because sometimes you just don't know what the market REALLY thinks, as much as you'd like to be able to project your own attitudes onto the entire world population. If Chen were prepared to put that to the test, do a Kickstarter campaign, then we might find out. The point is that he's, well, too cowardly(?), arrogant(?) to try? Maybe he hasn't got the suggestion yet, but I can certainly imagine the following exchange.

(Beautiful BNN analyst / commentator): "There has been some activity in the BlackBerry 10 enthusiast community: they are asking BlackBerry to start a Kickstarter campaign to raise the funds needed to get the BB10 operating system running on the great new Slider device. Have you given any thought to that?"
(John Chen): (laughing while he starts talking) "Yes, I heard about that, I know that BlackBerry fans, BlackBerry enthusiasts really love the BB10 OS, but no, we're not going to do that at this time."
(BNN): "Why not? It sounds like an answer to long time BB10 fan's prayers, and you don't have to commit until the funding threshold is reached."
(Chen): "Well, we're not a startup. We work with serious enterprise environments and a Kickstarter campaign, that's something for university grads doing their automatic bubble machine or whatever. No, we're going to pursue our enterprise strategy as it was laid out 3 years ago, come what may."

We totally agree here - I think that's EXACTLY how that exchange would go down.

First of all, it's not shifting sales from the Slider. These ARE sales of the Slider. Same hardware, just running a different OS. At any moment devices configured with BB10 could be configured to run Android. The devices could be warehoused with Android installed and when someone orders BB10, THEN the device undergoes the BB10 install process, and BlackBerry charges the customer for everything to get it done. No money need be lost. Or, user gets an Android device shipped, then they download the Autoloader and run the install process on their PC to get BB10 on there. There are many ways a creative person could make this deployment easy and efficient. This doesn't have to be hard.

It's a lot harder than you realize. You're assuming that all those willing to pay for a BB10 device are hardcore users who can re-image their devices and support themselves, and I think that you're vastly overestimating that. Most people expect their device, especially one they paid a premium for, to work out of the box. Even BB10 buyers.

Secondly, that's just conjecture anyway. Here's some more conjecture. Among all the Z10, Q10, Q5, Z30, Z3, Leap, Passport, Classic, and Porsche BB10 owners, there certainly are 500,000 BB10 fans who'd pay a premium for the Slider running BB10. What's your guess for how many active BB10 devices there are actually in use (not just sales) at this point? Perhaps the figures are available somewhere, but if "BlackBerry" market share is .3%, which leaves it at around 30 million devices worldwide, would 3 million of those be BB10 devices? Maybe 5 million? I don't know.... but those still using BB10 at this stage either use it because the HAVE to (the military etc.) or because they really REALLY like BB10 (or else they'd have switched to Android or iOS by now).

My best guess is that there are somewhere between 8-10M active BB10 devices (the remaining 20-22M being BBOS) after 2.5+ years of sales. But the bulk of those sales happened in 2013. You can't count on a large userbase for future sales (witness the huge BBOS user base that failed to transition to BB10), especially when developers are abandoning BB10 like rats from a sinking ship. BB World is full of zombie apps, and every day another one breaks, never to be fixed. Selling a few BB10 sliders won't change that.

Also consider that because the Slider could always be "reset" to run Android, there would be a lot more tech enthusiasts willing to give BB10 a try (which could lead to positive word of mouth etc, doesn't really seem to be a downside to me) knowing that Android was just an "autoloader" away.

BB can't afford to support a hobbyist's market right now, and that's really what you're talking about. As Chen "stated" in your fictional (but very realistic) "interview", BB isn't a startup, with only a handful of VC investors to convince to take a chance - they are a public company who is already in serious financial trouble who can't be seen to take further risks with little or no upside than to please their most hardcore fans. Chen isn't in the business of pleasing hardcore fans, he's in the business of transforming BB into a software and services company, and is only keeping hardware around because he hasn't completed that transition yet.

I'm sure he hoped that BB10 would do well enough that an Android transition wasn't necessary (which, BTW, I never thought would happen, despite the fact that I believe that BB should have adopted Android back in 2009, when they still had lots of money and resources), but BB10 sales are tanking faster than anyone, even Chen, likely expected, so something had to be done to keep revenues flowing until the software & services transition is complete.

If BB can sell 1M Android phones per quarter, then they're going to do better than selling 800K BB10 phones per quarter, and I promise you, Chen won't give the hardcore BB10 loyalists a second thought if that happens - he'd happily lose them to increase overall sales. That sucks for the hardcore loyalists, I know, but that's clearly his game, and would be any CEO's game in his position.

[RyanGermann]

I'm positive there might be 10,000 people willing to pay a premium, but I'll be hugely generous and quintuple that number and say 50,000. And then I'll double it again to 100k.

What premium? $5? $300? Your numbers above are order-of-magnitude low in my opinion. Are you considering that those running BB10 at this point are not just average "smartphone users". If they were, they'd have switched to Android or iOS by now. LOTS of variety in devices, LOTS of aftermarket accessories, LOTS of inexpensive refurb and previous generation devices that can be had a VERY reasonable prices. No one is staying on BB10 because they can't afford an Android or iOS device, or because they aren't aware of Android or iOS. Why DO people stay on BB10? Could that intangible "I don't know what" factor be reflected in how much they'd pay as a premium for a new BB10 device. I think you think BB10 users are just like other smartphone users, when clearly, we're not, and you neglect to consider that when you are thinking about the "BB10 device market".

Even that isn't enough to make up for the costs, because even if driver costs were down to $5/unit, you'd still have LOTS of other costs to offer a BB10 version, including development of BB10 for the slider (beyond just the drivers),

Like what? I say "there would be exactly $7 in costs to make BB10 work on the Slider." Now you try. Make up a number. How many developers, how long to put the changes in, consider their annual salaries and multiply by 2 for overhead. Go ahead. I bet the number STILL isn't all that high (if there are still developers working on BB10, it's just a matter of how much of their time would be needed to make BB10 work on the Slider). Say, $5 million bucks. Does that cover it?

You always throw out "a lot" or "too much" or the condescending "I think you don't know how much..." blather. Clearly you don't know, or you'd be brave enough to back up your conjecture with reasonable estimates, based on what you know about software development, the time involved and the costs of same. Do you understand why I called you Buzzy McBuzzkill? If you wanna buzzkill, BRING YOUR DATA, even just estimates. Like go ahead and even GUESS how much Qualcomm would charge BlackBerry for the driver development. $500,000? $2 Million? $5 Million? Even better: try "number of developers at $120,000 salary + overhead + amount of time billable to BlackBerry." I'll go first.

5 developers seems ample.
Given that BB10 already runs on similar Qualcomm hardware, and these driver developers would be experts at what they're doing, how about, say 6 months? Sound reasonable? Or 10 developers over 3 months? Also sound reasonable?

Ok, 5 developers, 6 months, 200,000 per developer annual cost to Qualcomm with overhead, double it for Qualcomm's profit... $1 Million bucks.

There. Easy peasy. Now, YOU say by how much my calculation might be off. It won't be off by 100 times in any direction, even at 10 times, it's doable. On 1 million devices, that adds $10 to the cost. On 200,000 devices, it adds $50 to the cost. Not too much that a BB10 enthusiast would balk, knowing that there ARE too few of us to make these costs truly immaterial.

Do you see what I mean about costs? You throw around how "costly" everything is all over the place. Be brave enough to back that up with estimates to prove your point.

creating a process for end-users to convert their phones (very iffy,

No, not iffy. ROUTINE. "Backup and restore" device is built in to every desktop app like Link and iTunes. Maybe you're thinking that there would be some kind of mandatory "convert BB10 data to Android and back and forth at will" feature required. I'd say that no, this wouldn't be necessary at all. It's an autoloader. Any ***** can double click an .exe and follow the "Plug in your device: note the device will be cleared and all data will be lost. Are you sure". Done.

and individually reloading phones before sales is impossible given how retail devices are distributed and sold),

Fine, then we stick to the totally routine and non-iffy "autoloader" procedure above. Don't spin tales of how impossible easy stuff is. It's unnecessary.

and all of the support costs.

Well, you think this can go badly wrong a lot. I have done a lot of autoloader upgrades to my BB10 devices and even gone WAY around the bend with a Dell Streak 7 that got ROYALLY messed up when I had to change the bootloader to load a later version of Cyanogen (odd, it seems ANDROID devices give me trouble, but not BB10. Hmmm.) but I DID manage to fix it, and you know what. NEVER EVER a hiccup with BB10 autoloaders. Recovery is usually "hold down the power and volume buttons for 20 seconds" and you're back in business.

Don't you think users, especially those who paid this premium, would demand support when their device got bricked during the upgrade process, or their data got lost, or whatever?

First of all, again, simple process, routine, people do it all the time every day and don't brick their devices. The first ever iPod Touch Version 1 I purchased on launch day engraved and all got bricked following Apple's explicit instructions, and the Genius at the Genius Bar couldn't fix it. That was a first gen device. in 2007. Obviously defective hardware. This "bricking" of which you speak does not happen so often. Yes, costs could be incurred, but let's not exaggerate it.

It's a lot harder than you realize.

You left out "little boy". I'll just assume you meant to put that in there.

You're assuming that all those willing to pay for a BB10 device are hardcore users who can re-image their devices and support themselves, and I think that you're vastly overestimating that.

And it merits repeating, you're spinning tales about how hard this all has to be. It's ROUTINE. Unbricking devices and installing updates via desktop PC: it's simple. BB10 users are of a different breed. If you cast BB10 users (that haven't already fled to Android or iPhone) in with iPhone users or Samsung users, you're doing it wrong.

Most people expect their device, especially one they paid a premium for, to work out of the box. Even BB10 buyers.

Yes, but we're not talking about your Aunt Mabel here. And again, you are, again, for lack of better term, FUDding the complexity up. There are established processes here. Nothing needs to be invented, it's not far fetched. Maybe the assemblage of established processes and the very IDEA of making an alternate OS available is "new", but there isn't a lot to invent here. Just the courage to try.

My best guess is that there are somewhere between 8-10M active BB10 devices (the remaining 20-22M being BBOS) after 2.5+ years of sales.

Wow, that's more than I'd believed you'd be willing to admit. But ok, let's use your number!

But the bulk of those sales happened in 2013. You can't count on a large userbase for future sales (witness the huge BBOS user base that failed to transition to BB10), especially when developers are abandoning BB10 like rats from a sinking ship. BB World is full of zombie apps, and every day another one breaks, never to be fixed. Selling a few BB10 sliders won't change that.

Ok, now, I gotta say, "what are you talking about". This is simply BB10 users who want to upgrade to the Slider. BBOS-BB10 migration has mysteriously appeared in this thought experiment, and it's like a fly got into the teleportation chamber, and just is messing stuff up. It's simply not relevant. Neither are the BB World zombie apps. BB10 users would have left already if those issues mattered.It doesn't have to be all 8-10 million.

BB can't afford to support a hobbyist's market right now,

the point is that maybe they can, so if 2.5 billion in cash "can't afford" $50 million, something's messed up

and that's really what you're talking about.

Sure that's what I'm talking about, and I'm also talking about how they CAN afford it. That's kind of the point.

As Chen "stated" in your fictional (but very realistic) "interview", BB isn't a startup, with only a handful of VC investors to convince to take a chance - they are a public company who is already in serious financial trouble who can't be seen to take further risks with little or no upside than to please their most hardcore fans.

and we get to it. Chen is willing to throw his most loyal customers under a bus to possibly score some new customers. Kind of like marrying someone that you had a clandestine affair with while you were both married... can you trust someone who'd cheat on their spouse? Can we trust a vendor who's so willing to abandon their most loyal customers? Undermines the "business" doesn't it? Not in ways you measure in revenues overnight... but in corporate culture, in general market perception: leads to a precipitous decline (Hold on... they already ARE in precipitous decline... because... they effed over their most loyal customers! Now it all makes sense!)

Chen isn't in the business of pleasing hardcore fans, he's in the business of transforming BB into a software and services company, and is only keeping hardware around because he hasn't completed that transition yet.

...and of course now we're at the root of it. I make my proposals on the notion that BlackBerry wants to make money AND not screw over their loyal customers. Do you refute them because you think the BlackBerry has no hope of making money and WANTS to screw over their most loyal customers? Seems reasonable.

I'm sure he hoped that BB10 would do well enough that an Android transition wasn't necessary (which, BTW, I never thought would happen, despite the fact that I believe that BB should have adopted Android back in 2009, when they still had lots of money and resources), but BB10 sales are tanking faster than anyone, even Chen, likely expected, so something had to be done to keep revenues flowing until the software & services transition is complete.

Everyone acknowledges BB10's lack of market share, with "blame" firmly falling on the App Gap. There doesn't seem to be a single other reason that BlackBerry will own up to. I believe that the failure of BB10 is not JUST attributable to the App Gap... which means that the SOLUTION to BBs device market share isn't JUST switching to Android.

If BB can sell 1M Android phones per quarter, then they're going to do better than selling 800K BB10 phones per quarter,

Just 1 million? That's not sustainable either. It would have to be 2 million at least, wouldn't it?

and I promise you, Chen won't give the hardcore BB10 loyalists a second thought if that happens - he'd happily lose them to increase overall sales. That sucks for the hardcore loyalists, I know, but that's clearly his game, and would be any CEO's game in his position.

Well, I'd say short-sighted, panic-state CEOs do what he's doing. Throwing your most loyal customers under a bus with the alacrity he seems to exhibit (while basically lying about it) is not what I call "good business", but he's not in it for the long haul, personally, I don't think. Reviving BlackBerry is a challenge, a game, for him, and if he loses, well, he'll go home on his golden parachute. Oh, well, win some lose some.

But, oh, we all know where this is headed... which is why we "fools who hope" put forth ideas, as far fetched as they may seem to some, to, if nothing else, possibly shame them into action. Suggesting that "everything's SOOOO expensive" without backing such statements up plays RIGHT into Chen's hands: he wants everyone to BELIEVE how hard and costly everything is. I challenge such unsubstantiated claims, and quite often, they don't hold up.

Chen has proven that he is 100% all talk when it comes to statements that he appreciates BB's loyal customers. It may only be because he's literally fighting for BlackBerry's life... but honestly, that's not my problem. BlackBerry as a "MDM software company that puts out Android devices" is as important to me personally as "hydraulic drill press manufacturing concern". I'm interested in seeing the BlackBerry that I actually CARE about do things I personally CARE about. The time to stop caring hasn't come yet. I see the headlight coming down the track as many of us do. We're "panicking", too, no matter how much the calm and mature and sage suggest we shouldn't.

[RyanGermann]

Must mention also the great number of posters here on Crackberry who send back their phones for replacement several times because they don't like the scratch that was caused by dropping their phone. With a Slider can't you just imagine the complaints, I sat on my phone and now the screen doesn't slide up like the way it used to...

You know, you might have something there. Suppose that BlackBerry requires all BB10 devices include in the costs (and advertise this inclusion) something like Applecare: so you pay more BUT you get Applecare-style damage protection. That's usually a profitable line of business (hence you buy your TV at Best Buy and are offered the 2 year protection plan for an extra $200, even though the TV's replacement value in 2 years won't be that much) so that's another way that BlackBerry could increase BB10 device profits while still only selling 3 million devices per year. Ok, it's a ridiculous idea, but it's an IDEA!

[cbvinh]

What premium? $5? $300? Your numbers above are order-of-magnitude low in my opinion. Are you considering that those running BB10 at this point are not just average "smartphone users". If they were, they'd have switched to Android or iOS by now. LOTS of variety in devices, LOTS of aftermarket accessories, LOTS of inexpensive refurb and previous generation devices that can be had a VERY reasonable prices. No one is staying on BB10 because they can't afford an Android or iOS device, or because they aren't aware of Android or iOS. Why DO people stay on BB10? Could that intangible "I don't know what" factor be reflected in how much they'd pay as a premium for a new BB10 device. I think you think BB10 users are just like other smartphone users, when clearly, we're not, and you neglect to consider that when you are thinking about the "BB10 device market".



Like what? I say "there would be exactly $7 in costs to make BB10 work on the Slider." Now you try. Make up a number. How many developers, how long to put the changes in, consider their annual salaries and multiply by 2 for overhead. Go ahead. I bet the number STILL isn't all that high (if there are still developers working on BB10, it's just a matter of how much of their time would be needed to make BB10 work on the Slider). Say, $5 million bucks. Does that cover it?

You always throw out "a lot" or "too much" or the condescending "I think you don't know how much..." blather. Clearly you don't know, or you'd be brave enough to back up your conjecture with reasonable estimates, based on what you know about software development, the time involved and the costs of same. Do you understand why I called you Buzzy McBuzzkill? If you wanna buzzkill, BRING YOUR DATA, even just estimates. Like go ahead and even GUESS how much Qualcomm would charge BlackBerry for the driver development. $500,000? $2 Million? $5 Million? Even better: try "number of developers at $120,000 salary + overhead + amount of time billable to BlackBerry." I'll go first.

5 developers seems ample.
Given that BB10 already runs on similar Qualcomm hardware, and these driver developers would be experts at what they're doing, how about, say 6 months? Sound reasonable? Or 10 developers over 3 months? Also sound reasonable?

Ok, 5 developers, 6 months, 200,000 per developer annual cost to Qualcomm with overhead, double it for Qualcomm's profit... $1 Million bucks.

There. Easy peasy. Now, YOU say by how much my calculation might be off. It won't be off by 100 times in any direction, even at 10 times, it's doable. On 1 million devices, that adds $10 to the cost. On 200,000 devices, it adds $50 to the cost. Not too much that a BB10 enthusiast would balk, knowing that there ARE too few of us to make these costs truly immaterial.

Do you see what I mean about costs? You throw around how "costly" everything is all over the place. Be brave enough to back that up with estimates to prove your point.



No, not iffy. ROUTINE. "Backup and restore" device is built in to every desktop app like Link and iTunes. Maybe you're thinking that there would be some kind of mandatory "convert BB10 data to Android and back and forth at will" feature required. I'd say that no, this wouldn't be necessary at all. It's an autoloader. Any ***** can double click an .exe and follow the "Plug in your device: note the device will be cleared and all data will be lost. Are you sure". Done.



Fine, then we stick to the totally routine and non-iffy "autoloader" procedure above. Don't spin tales of how impossible easy stuff is. It's unnecessary.



Well, you think this can go badly wrong a lot. I have done a lot of autoloader upgrades to my BB10 devices and even gone WAY around the bend with a Dell Streak 7 that got ROYALLY messed up when I had to change the bootloader to load a later version of Cyanogen (odd, it seems ANDROID devices give me trouble, but not BB10. Hmmm.) but I DID manage to fix it, and you know what. NEVER EVER a hiccup with BB10 autoloaders. Recovery is usually "hold down the power and volume buttons for 20 seconds" and you're back in business.



First of all, again, simple process, routine, people do it all the time every day and don't brick their devices. The first ever iPod Touch Version 1 I purchased on launch day engraved and all got bricked following Apple's explicit instructions, and the Genius at the Genius Bar couldn't fix it. That was a first gen device. in 2007. Obviously defective hardware. This "bricking" of which you speak does not happen so often. Yes, costs could be incurred, but let's not exaggerate it.



You left out "little boy". I'll just assume you meant to put that in there.



And it merits repeating, you're spinning tales about how hard this all has to be. It's ROUTINE. Unbricking devices and installing updates via desktop PC: it's simple. BB10 users are of a different breed. If you cast BB10 users (that haven't already fled to Android or iPhone) in with iPhone users or Samsung users, you're doing it wrong.



Yes, but we're not talking about your Aunt Mabel here. And again, you are, again, for lack of better term, FUDding the complexity up. There are established processes here. Nothing needs to be invented, it's not far fetched. Maybe the assemblage of established processes and the very IDEA of making an alternate OS available is "new", but there isn't a lot to invent here. Just the courage to try.



Wow, that's more than I'd believed you'd be willing to admit. But ok, let's use your number!



Ok, now, I gotta say, "what are you talking about". This is simply BB10 users who want to upgrade to the Slider. BBOS-BB10 migration has mysteriously appeared in this thought experiment, and it's like a fly got into the teleportation chamber, and just is messing stuff up. It's simply not relevant. Neither are the BB World zombie apps. BB10 users would have left already if those issues mattered.It doesn't have to be all 8-10 million.



the point is that maybe they can, so if 2.5 billion in cash "can't afford" $50 million, something's messed up



Sure that's what I'm talking about, and I'm also talking about how they CAN afford it. That's kind of the point.



and we get to it. Chen is willing to throw his most loyal customers under a bus to possibly score some new customers. Kind of like marrying someone that you had a clandestine affair with while you were both married... can you trust someone who'd cheat on their spouse? Can we trust a vendor who's so willing to abandon their most loyal customers? Undermines the "business" doesn't it? Not in ways you measure in revenues overnight... but in corporate culture, in general market perception: leads to a precipitous decline (Hold on... they already ARE in precipitous decline... because... they effed over their most loyal customers! Now it all makes sense!)



...and of course now we're at the root of it. I make my proposals on the notion that BlackBerry wants to make money AND not screw over their loyal customers. Do you refute them because you think the BlackBerry has no hope of making money and WANTS to screw over their most loyal customers? Seems reasonable.



Everyone acknowledges BB10's lack of market share, with "blame" firmly falling on the App Gap. There doesn't seem to be a single other reason that BlackBerry will own up to. I believe that the failure of BB10 is not JUST attributable to the App Gap... which means that the SOLUTION to BBs device market share isn't JUST switching to Android.



Just 1 million? That's not sustainable either. It would have to be 2 million at least, wouldn't it?



Well, I'd say short-sighted, panic-state CEOs do what he's doing. Throwing your most loyal customers under a bus with the alacrity he seems to exhibit (while basically lying about it) is not what I call "good business", but he's not in it for the long haul, personally, I don't think. Reviving BlackBerry is a challenge, a game, for him, and if he loses, well, he'll go home on his golden parachute. Oh, well, win some lose some.

But, oh, we all know where this is headed... which is why we "fools who hope" put forth ideas, as far fetched as they may seem to some, to, if nothing else, possibly shame them into action. Suggesting that "everything's SOOOO expensive" without backing such statements up plays RIGHT into Chen's hands: he wants everyone to BELIEVE how hard and costly everything is. I challenge such unsubstantiated claims, and quite often, they don't hold up.

Chen has proven that he is 100% all talk when it comes to statements that he appreciates BB's loyal customers. It may only be because he's literally fighting for BlackBerry's life... but honestly, that's not my problem. BlackBerry as a "MDM software company that puts out Android devices" is as important to me personally as "hydraulic drill press manufacturing concern". I'm interested in seeing the BlackBerry that I actually CARE about do things I personally CARE about. The time to stop caring hasn't come yet. I see the headlight coming down the track as many of us do. We're "panicking", too, no matter how much the calm and mature and sage suggest we shouldn't.

Sounds like a poll is in order.

- I am willing to spend an extra $40 on "Priv" with BB10
- I am not interested in "Priv" with BB10, because it's a slider and I don't care for a slider, it's too big, etc.

It may give insight as to how many of the existing BB10 users would actually upgrade. That's the immediate potential sales and then add in an estimated number of new adopters per quarter to see if it seems viable.

[sentimentGX4]

Sounds like a poll is in order.

- I am willing to spend an extra $40 on "Priv" with BB10
- I am not interested in "Priv" with BB10, because it's a slider and I don't care for a slider, it's too big, etc.

It may give insight as to how many of the existing BB10 users would actually upgrade. That's the immediate potential sales and then add in an estimated number of new adopters per quarter to see if it seems viable.

It's pretty pointless. Chen doesn't need a poll to have a good idea of how well a BB10 Slider may sell. We already had the Passport. We had the Z30. We had the Z10.

There's no good reason to believe that the remaining BB10 userbase is somehow super inelastic and would spend a lot of extra money on their device when barely anyone even showed up for a fairly priced Passport. (If they were really that fanatical about BB10, they'd buy it even if they were turned off by the form factor.) And, even if it were true, we still don't know that say $40 extra for a device would make an impact.

Some are stuck on the "bargaining" phase of the 5-steps of Grief.

Just 1 million? That's not sustainable either. It would have to be 2 million at least, wouldn't it?

I'm genuinely afraid that the Android handset won't get 1 million in sales.

Too much channel damage has taken place. Also, the slider is only one model while BB10 had multiple models, some severely marked down to $200, to bolster its sales. Did the Passport ever hit 1 million units in a quarter? I'm not even sure BBRY will manufacture 2 million handsets.

I think the Slider is really a litmus test. If it exceeds BBRY expectations, they'll make more Android handsets including mid-range ones and the 2 million target will be hit easy. If not, BBRY will scrap the hardware division which it had always been preparing to do.

[vladi]

How do they expect to sell 2.5 million devices with a website like this Priv - United States ?
Did Chen did this himself in Microsoft Publisher?

Seriously these people are one good designer and one good developer away from doing something great and yet among hundreds of people that have been employed they have failed to find them.

[Superfly_FR]

What about the android runtime :s

I sincerely hope, ask, want it to be removed from BB10.

[cbvinh]

It's pretty pointless. Chen doesn't need a poll to have a good idea of how well a BB10 Slider may sell. We already had the Passport. We had the Z30. We had the Z10.

There's no good reason to believe that the remaining BB10 userbase is somehow super inelastic and would spend a lot of extra money on their device when barely anyone even showed up for a fairly priced Passport. (If they were really that fanatical about BB10, they'd buy it even if they were turned off by the form factor.) And, even if it were true, we still don't know that say $40 extra for a device would make an impact.

Some are stuck on the "bargaining" phase of the 5-steps of Grief.

The poll isn't for BlackBerry, but to suss out the conjectures made here on CrackBerry.

[cbvinh]

How do they expect to sell 2.5 million devices with a website like this Priv - United States ?
Did Chen did this himself in Microsoft Publisher?

Seriously these people are one good designer and one good developer away from doing something great and yet among hundreds of people that have been employed they have failed to find them.

Yeah, the page is pretty pathetic, but it's not the official unveiling. It's more for those who have been watching the leaks. All it does is confirm two things: Android and the name "Priv". We still don't know the specs or how BlackBerry will integrate their "BlackBerry Experience". I'm not concerned this page will doom the device.

[cbvinh]

I sincerely hope, ask, want it to be removed from BB10.

Why remove an option that other users benefit from?

From what I understand, as long as you don't run an Android app, the Android Runtime sits dormant. Of course, that may be harder to do with Amazon apps pre-installed and non-removable... Maybe just get rid of those apps.

[vladi]

Of course its not gonna doom it but at least make it nice looking. Go to apple.com see how they deal with the stuff like that and copy, it doesn't get any easier than that. Thats why I say they are one design away from making it look right.

[lnichols]

Nobody wants a new more powerful BB10 device than me: but listen to what Chen said on the call. There will be no BB10 version of the SLIDER (a device that EXISTS and WILL be released) because the cost to develop hardware / chipset drivers for the BB10 OS to run on the device is cost prohibitive! I can't imagine how much it actually is, but "cost prohibitive" in my mind is upwards of $20 Million (when you have $2.5 BILLION in cash: chump change). But in Chen's mind, since spending that $20 million (I doubt it's anywhere NEAR that much of course) would just be money down the drain because any BB10 devices he might sell would be TOO FEW to justify the investment.

If the Slider did get BB10, how many would be sold? Maybe 3 million? Fewer? Let's say only half a million, 500,000 devices.

It's not WORTH it for BlackBerry to spend $20 million to sell 500,000 BB10 devices: remember the development costs for the hardware are sunk in the Android OS device development, and Chen can't be bothered to invest WHATEVER it would cost to get BB10 onto this EXISTING device (with relatively conventional parts, but the higher resolution screen might be a wrinkle... but I digress).

So across 500,000 devices, $20 million (a number WAY huger than it would actually cost) is $40 per device.

They can't find a way to make $40 on 500,000 Android Sliders that have BB10 running on it? Even by CHARGING MORE!?

Please someone tell me that developing the drivers for the Qualcomm chips for BB10 costs Dr. Evil numbers "100 Billion Dollars!" and I won't believe a word of it, but the math just doesn't make sense.

Chen is just pulling Thor: "Screw You our most loyal customers who stuck with us through thick and thin: we don't even want to bother spending $40 per device for you, even though we'd make way more than that in profit on the device you buy."

It's abominable but it is effectively what Chen is doing here.

Someone do the math again and tell me how I'm wrong and how I shouldn't just feel like Chen has like his predecessors, just showed what BlackBerry Ltd. thinks of customer loyalty: we're chumps.

And this is why I finally have to leave! Chen doesn't give a damn about the people that will actually be buying the devices. TH was no better and neither were Mike and Jim, but the continued view by this company that keeping your customers happy is not necessary to sell devices is just amazing. Their are blind loyalist here that will buy every color BlackBerry and a bag of Chen's excrement if BlackBerry were stamped on the side, but the company does nothing for these people, or the people that use BlackBerry as a daily driver phone. But hey as long as he keeps share holders snowed long enough to not notice that they have no customers to buy their stuff, then he makes out with more money and all is good!

Posted via Z30

[the1]

I'm genuinely afraid that the Android handset won't get 1 million in sales.

Too much channel damage has taken place. Also, the slider is only one model while BB10 had multiple models, some severely marked down to $200, to bolster its sales. Did the Passport ever hit 1 million units in a quarter? I'm not even sure BBRY will manufacture 2 million handsets.

I think the Slider is really a litmus test. If it exceeds BBRY expectations, they'll make more Android handsets including mid-range ones and the 2 million target will be hit easy. If not, BBRY will scrap the hardware division which it had always been preparing to do.

It's not even that. I've mentioned this a couple of time but I think people automatically equate market share with profits. Fact is, the two top Android OEMs in the US (maybe globally, but I haven't checked global stats entirely) are Samsung and LG and they have 2 things going for them that people ignore:

1. They are successful in areas other than mobile
2. They don't rely on the sale of one or a few phones. Shoot, Samsung released like 50+ phones last year

Apple has the luxury to create only a few mobile devices because they are all inclusive. They generate revenue off all aspects (hardware and software). But truthfully, I'm in wait and see mode.

[LHallman]

They also claimed BB10 would be coming to the playbook , that they could sell millions of Q10's and that people wouldn't want an all touch device like the iPhone...

[ChainPunch]

It looks like Chen has made his mind on the form factors for blackberry, it will be interesting to see how things go. I believe that the Priv is not going to save the hardware division by itself and it is going to be a combination of BB10/Android that saves it.

Blackberry 10
Passport and Classic (remember these devices have the 1:1 ratio)

Android
Priv (slider) and Full Touchscreen (all android apps should work with their screen ratios)

I think Blackberry is going to stick to releasing two devices a year: one BB10 and one Android

Next year I expect the following:
Full Touchscreen (Android) and an Update to the Passport (BB10)

The classic is only going to be upgraded every 2 years.

[sentimentGX4]

It's not even that. I've mentioned this a couple of time but I think people automatically equate market share with profits. Fact is, in the US, the two top Android OEMs in the US (maybe globally, but I haven't checked global stats entirely) are Samsung and LG and they have 2 things going for them that people ignore

I agree with you wholeheartedly. But, on the opposite side of the coin, penetrating the US Android market is often made out to be a lot more difficult than it is.

LG had been considered a failure by many for most of Android history. For some time it was behind not only Samsung but HTC AND Motorola in the US as well. Its recent resurgence in the past two years in the United States to #2 OEM and the popularity of the G-series proves that the US market is not impenetrable as some had thought.

But LG is not the only success story! A surprising oft-overlooked OEM is making waves in 2015: ZTE. ZTE is from China; but, it never gained sizable traction in its home market where names such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Lenovo are king. ZTE is not some super amazing company. It is not renowned even in China for its price, specs, or build quality. Yet, ZTE is now the 3rd largest Android vendor in the United States!

What this goes to show us is that the US market isn't as locked down as many think even in 2015. HTC and Motorola have driven off cliffs leaving lots of room for new entrants as a large portion of US consumers continue to shun Samsung for its high prices in the low and mid end. LG has slyly stepped in as an alternative but it hasn't covered every price point so that there is still room for more brands.

If a completely mediocre OEM like ZTE can step in and take the US market, there is no reason to believe that Blackberry can't reclaim its share as well. The key is for Blackberry is to be ambitious and not to sell itself short. With skillful execution, Blackberry could be the #4 US Android vendor fairly easily.

[ChainPunch]

The purpose of a business is to make a profit: make more than you spend. What people don't factor in is the overall cost of the hardware division with personnel, research, development, etc costs. I like that fact that Chen created the hardware division, so that he can see where they stand as far as making an overall profit with that division. Blackberry got too big and there was a lot of waste. At least now Blackberry is slim and is trying to operate with the overall cost in mind. From a business stand Chen is okay, but he did not understand the hardware sales side of things and that has hurt him. The classic and passport where great moves, as those devices are selling at a good return compared to the Z10/Q10/Z30. The leap should of never been release. Going to Android is for full touch,a possibility, and slider is the correct move because the ability have apps is key to selling phones and developers are only interested in supporting two platforms (Apple and Android). Look how "well" Microsoft has done with all their money in trying to get developers to develop for them and that shows that spending money does guarantee success.

Only time will tell if Chen is able to keep blackberry alive and going, but I am taking a wait and see approach to the situation. I have two classics currently and will more than likely switch one to Priv, so I can have access to android app eco system. I am a keyboard person at heart so having a combo of classic and slider is going to work out good for me.

[the1]

I agree with you wholeheartedly. But, on the opposite side of the coin, penetrating the US Android market is often made out to be a lot more difficult than it is.

LG had been considered a failure by many for most of Android history. For some time it was behind not only Samsung but HTC AND Motorola in the US as well. Its recent resurgence in the past two years in the United States to #2 OEM and the popularity of the G-series proves that the US market is not impenetrable as some had thought.

But LG is not the only success story! A surprising oft-overlooked OEM is making waves in 2015: ZTE. ZTE is from China; but, it never gained sizable traction in its home market where names such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Lenovo are king. ZTE is not some super amazing company. It is not renowned even in China for its price, specs, or build quality. Yet, ZTE is now the 3rd largest Android vendor in the United States.

I agree and I also remember that LGs turnaround was the Optimus G (precursor to the G series, for those who don't know, is why it seemed to start from G2 and skip G1 (although G1 was the first US Android phone, but I digress...lol). They made an awesome phone that really couldn't be denied, plus you could convert some variants to the Nexus 4. Now with ZTE, that is something that I didn't see coming,at all...lol.

I don't think that it is hard to penetrate the US market but I also believe that expectations should be realistic, especially when revenue is concerned. Selling millions of phone don't mean anything if you can't make a profit; ask HTC.

[tazcubed]

More than likely, I'm going to buy the Priv even if it's solely a droid release (although I would take a BB10 version first - if they made it). I'll give the droid a chance, but I'm certainly going to hold onto my Passport! I'll keep holding my breath that BB10 will make a comeback via an increase in sales via droids. For those who are hardcore BB10ers waiting for a follow up on the Z10 and Z30 this must seriously test one's patience without any true recourse in the foreseeable future. I believe that BB10 is a better overall OS, but it sucks that RIM/Blackberry has lost developer support.

[conite]

Chen's own words about switching to Android:

�When this first leaked I thought the Crackberry people was going to send an assassin to kill me,� he quipped. �One thing is good for our people: We have some really committed diehards. I respect that there�s a lot of heritage here, a lot of pride. If the math doesn�t add up, the math doesn�t add up. We could keep the pride and die hungry or we can eat well and not so proud, maybe. So I chose to eat well. It�s good for the company to continue to have a shot at building handsets.�


Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.2639

[andy957]

Chen's own words about switching to Android:

�When this first leaked I thought the Crackberry people was going to send an assassin to kill me,� he quipped. �One thing is good for our people: We have some really committed diehards. I respect that there�s a lot of heritage here, a lot of pride. If the math doesn�t add up, the math doesn�t add up. We could keep the pride and die hungry or we can eat well and not so proud, maybe. So I chose to eat well. It�s good for the company to continue to have a shot at building handsets.�


Z30STA100-5/10.3.2.2639

"People was"??

[Superfly_FR]

Why remove an option that other users benefit from?

From what I understand, as long as you don't run an Android app, the Android Runtime sits dormant. Of course, that may be harder to do with Amazon apps pre-installed and non-removable... Maybe just get rid of those apps.

Because on a strategic/marketing POV, that's the only option to see both BB10 and Android co-exist.
This will not mean other alternatives to run Android APKs will not pop but maintaining Dalvik-like is pretty useless and will be furthermore with Marshmallow. Moreover, given the current OHA rules, I'm not sure BlackBerry will be authorized to maintain (I mean in next versions) this RT in BB10.

So, shall an Android runtime exist for BB10, I'd guess we (or (with) BlackBerry (help/blessing/money)) have to look in the direction of OpenMobile ACL, for instance. This RT would be installed on user behalf and won't compromise the OHA terms.

I believe BB10 has a single chance to survive to Google's bulldozer : stand 100% BlackBerry DNA and strictly respect the standards this company has raised to the highest level in terms of privacy (implies : stay away from Google's servers) and security capabilities (end to end highest grade security). In short : offer and assume the choice of a "pure yet restrained" BlackBerry OS and the alternate way to enjoy the good and the bad of Google's Android. [and spend some money to extend apps catalog to most vital business apps]

As for Android RT and the visible "Android Player" it consumes permanently some resources. Mine is at 17.4Mb in memory and IDLE or using 0.1-0.2% of processor resources even when I'm not using it (I assume this is Amazon updates related ?), not to mention storage and various adaptations that have been made in core OS to interact with. Removing it won't probably change drastically things performance wise but I'd guess it will eradicate a lot of side-effects some users have regarding battery life or system slowdown (due to "kill it yourself" headless-like processes from apps).

But, again, wishful thinking, probably.