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09-23-15 04:21 PM
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  1. anon4226395's Avatar
    according to statista.com; however if 1 percent of those sales went to the slider with "secure-android" then that will result in sales of the slider well beyond the total BB10 sales to date..... just saying.
    saxxman, astrodan13 and playpen007 like this.
    09-22-15 01:12 PM
  2. jaydee5799's Avatar
    we can always hope
    09-22-15 01:32 PM
  3. raremage's Avatar
    Typically business plans that start out with "If we can only capture X% of the market we'll make millions!" are summarily rejected by banks and investors.

    Having said that, I'm rooting for success. Unless there's some completely weird, out of the norm happenstance, I can't imagine not buying a slider as my new daily driver.

    Posted via CB10
    ayngling and luc4625 like this.
    09-22-15 01:55 PM
  4. JRM1014's Avatar
    Even 1/2 % of that, blackberry will never produce that many phones, people will start complaing that its never in stock...lol....me being first of course
    09-22-15 02:06 PM
  5. Plazmic Flame's Avatar
    Definitely rooting for BlackBerry to do good numbers with the Venice. Given the positivity around the device, I think they might run into stock issues. Which is obviously a good/bad situation.
    09-22-15 02:38 PM
  6. Nick Spagnolo's Avatar
    Good point

    Z10
    09-22-15 02:43 PM
  7. JohnGrey's Avatar
    according to statista.com; however if 1 percent of those sales went to the slider with "secure-android" then that will result in sales of the slider well beyond the total BB10 sales to date..... just saying.
    As I pointed out in another Slider threat, Android sales number are misleading because the vast majority of those sold are budget handsets in emerging/restricted markets; Business Insider published numbers last year that 60% of all Android handset sales are under $200 (unsubsidised, per-unit cost) and only 20% go above $400. The majority of those owners do not have the means to purchase something that costs as much as an iPhone, S6, G4 or Venice. One needs to mine the data for the number of flagship-tier handsets, those with a price point equal to that of those MSRPs thrown out by certain members here, and ask what percentage of that number BBRY has to sell in order for Venice to be successful. If we are to assume that that 20% holds true now, and I know of no economic upturn sufficient to disregard it, 1% of sales would add around 1.3 million users. How many BBRY users will abandon the platform because the device is strictly Android (and by all accounts it is)? Half that? Perhaps equal to that?

    It's hard to say, of course, what will constitute a success since we don't know BBRY's internal targets for this launch and the devices life cycle, but if the goal is to see a useful, and marketable, increase in BBRY handset users, I'd wager it'll have to be quite a bit more than 1% of the total number.
    Last edited by JohnGrey; 09-22-15 at 04:01 PM.
    jmr1015, gillaz and lift like this.
    09-22-15 02:51 PM
  8. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    As I sit and think about it, maybe Blackberry is onto something that could catapult them over some Android OEM's that only offer touch screen devices. I'm thinking of Sony, LG, and HTC. Motorola has value to specs down to a 'T' as do Xiaomi and One Plus. And Sumsung is still the king of Android. But if Blackberry could settle into the top 5 in sales it would be a grand slam for them.

    Let's break down their formula for potential success:

    • Vanilla Android (no skin)
    • OS customizations by way of apps and not a skin (hub, contacts, etc)
    • The above two will result in faster OS updates in comparison to incumbents
    • Capacitative Blackberry PKB + VKB
    • Access to GAPPS and Play Store
    • Discontinuation of the Android RT in BB10 will allow them access to more HW partners hopefully bringing costs down
    • Will be able to marry this device to their recent GOOD acquisition for enterprise customers


    Maybe I'm dreaming but I think this device has a shot. It will suffer the same criticism as other Android phones, namely lack of tight HW ecosystem like iOS (Mac, Apple TV, etc, etc), and perception that app quality is less then iOS.

    Admittedly I have always loved BB10 and have never been too fond of Android or iOS purely as OS's, but I would be willing to give this device a shot if they do a good job integrating the best aspects of BB10.
    DolemiteDONS and wincyUt like this.
    09-22-15 03:09 PM
  9. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    As I pointed out in another Slider threat, Android sales number are misleading because the vast majority of those sold are budget handsets in emerging/restricted markets; Business Insider published numbers last year that 60% of all Android handset sales are under $200 (unsubsidised, per-unit cost) and only 20% go about $400. The majority of those owners do not have the means to purchase something that costs as much as an iPhone, S6, G4 or Venice. One needs to mine the data for the number of flagship-tier handsets, those with a price point equal to that of those MSRPs thrown out by certain members here, and ask what percentage of that number BBRY has to sell in order for Venice to be successful. If we are to assume that that 20% holds true now, and I know of no economic upturn sufficient to disregard it, 1% of sales would add around 1.3 million users. How many BBRY users will abandon the platform because the device is strictly Android (and by all accounts it is)? Half that? Perhaps equal to that?

    It's hard to say, of course, what will constitute a success since we don't know BBRY's internal targets for this launch and the devices life cycle, but if the goal is to see a useful, and marketable, increase in BBRY handset users, I'd wager it'll have to be quite a bit more than 1% of the total number.
    Good points. Do you think BB could make a phone like the Moto G or E with a slide out PKB at the same price point as means to go after that lower market? Is it even doable? If they rip out the Android RT from BB10 then any HW manufacturer could potentially build this type of phone for them.
    09-22-15 03:13 PM
  10. JohnGrey's Avatar
    Good points. Do you think BB could make a phone like the Moto G or E with a slide out PKB at the same price point as means to go after that lower market? Is it even doable? If they rip out the Android RT from BB10 then any HW manufacturer could potentially build this type of phone for them.
    Depends on what their hard target for per unit profit is. My issues with the Venice and any prospects for success revolve around the following considerations, pursuant to a high price point:

    1.) It confines it strictly to the high-end Western markets and certain high-income segments of East Asia and the Eastern Europe. The problem with is that, while some in that group will give it a whack, they are also a group that always have to have cutting-edge tech in their phones, and every year at that. BBRY's release cycle, even assuming that Venice's modest success, does not bode well for forward success. These buyers will not wait for BBRY to catch up with a follow-up phone and will return to their previous brand.

    2.) The PKB/Slider phone, while not representing a differentiator that subscribes to current tastes in mobile tech, also represents a costly design choice from the standpoint of manufacturing, and also represents the most likely point of mechnical failure, since it's a plane of shear and the midpoint of the display represents a fragile and unsecured point of stress against torque.

    These points, along with the lack of extraordinary value in the terms of specs (absolutely vanilla) and software solutions (since they'll be available for non-BBRY handsets in the future), the probable cost, and the brand positioning of BBRY in the mobile space, this phone has a decent probability of failing.
    Elephant_Canyon and lift like this.
    09-22-15 03:57 PM
  11. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    Depends on what their hard target for per unit profit is. My issues with the Venice and any prospects for success revolve around the following considerations, pursuant to a high price point:

    1.) It confines it strictly to the high-end Western markets and certain high-income segments of East Asia and the Eastern Europe. The problem with is that, while some in that group will give it a whack, they are also a group that always have to have cutting-edge tech in their phones, and every year at that. BBRY's release cycle, even assuming that Venice's modest success, does not bode well for forward success. These buyers will not wait for BBRY to catch up with a follow-up phone and will return to their previous brand.

    2.) The PKB/Slider phone, while not representing a differentiator that subscribes to current tastes in mobile tech, also represents a costly design choice from the standpoint of manufacturing, and also represents the most likely point of mechnical failure, since it's a plane of shear and the midpoint of the display represents a fragile and unsecured point of stress against torque.

    These points, along with the lack of extraordinary value in the terms of specs (absolutely vanilla) and software solutions (since they'll be available for non-BBRY handsets in the future), the probable cost, and the brand positioning of BBRY in the mobile space, this phone has a decent probability of failing.
    Agree on point #1. But that can be said for all high end Android devices so this is not a problem unique to BB. The issue they have is that their brand is damaged and they need a way to stand out from the others. The PKB and BB apps/services could be their way of achieving the latter.

    For point #2, agree that a PKB phone is not currently 'in' from a tech perspective. But the fact it is a slider gives users the option of either PKB for long drawn out messages and VKB for quick replies. I have had many iPhone using friends tell me that they stopped typing excessively on their phones after they got rid of their Blackberry's. A slider phone could satisfy both VKB and PKB crowds rather nicely. Keeping in mind that some people could fall into both camps.

    In terms of the reliability of the sliding mechanism, I am not worried. The Torch never had any of these issues and was quite durable. I would imagine this phone will be no different. At the very least it should make it through a 2 year contract cycle. Expect it to be well built like the Passport and Classic.
    09-22-15 04:08 PM
  12. anon4226395's Avatar
    Nonetheless I hope tomorrow morning in Frankfurt, it'll be more fun being a BB guy rather than a VW guy
    Xaiux, gillaz, lift and 1 others like this.
    09-22-15 04:12 PM
  13. JohnGrey's Avatar
    Agree on point #1. But that can be said for all high end Android devices so this is not a problem unique to BB. The issue they have is that their brand is damaged and they need a way to stand out from the others. The PKB and BB apps/services could be their way of achieving the latter.
    But those aren't unique to BBRY handsets or they won't be in the near future. It's a fact that they're either already here (BBM, BES management) or will be (Experience Suite)

    For point #2, agree that a PKB phone is not currently 'in' from a tech perspective. But the fact it is a slider gives users the option of either PKB for long drawn out messages and VKB for quick replies. I have had many iPhone using friends tell me that they stopped typing excessively on their phones after they got rid of their Blackberry's. A slider phone could satisfy both VKB and PKB crowds rather nicely. Keeping in mind that some people could fall into both camps.
    I will admit that it's possible. Nothing that I've seen of market research in that regard suggests it, but I'm open to the possibility.

    In terms of the reliability of the sliding mechanism, I am not worried. The Torch never had any of these issues and was quite durable. I would imagine this phone will be no different. At the very least it should make it through a 2 year contract cycle. Expect it to be well built like the Passport and Classic.
    But it isn't built like any of those. It may share some material design with the latter two, but the depth of the phone is, what, perhaps 8mm? The Torch was double that, the portion of unsecure display when open was smaller, and the entire phone was made of semi-rigid materials with fair degree of flexive return, as opposed the metal and glass of Venice.
    09-22-15 04:17 PM
  14. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    But those aren't unique to BBRY handsets or they won't be in the near future. It's a fact that they're either already here (BBM, BES management) or will be (Experience Suite)



    I will admit that it's possible. Nothing that I've seen of market research in that regard suggests it, but I'm open to the possibility.



    But it isn't built like any of those. It may share some material design with the latter two, but the depth of the phone is, what, perhaps 8mm? The Torch was double that, the portion of unsecure display when open was smaller, and the entire phone was made of semi-rigid materials with fair degree of flexive return, as opposed the metal and glass of Venice.
    The experience suite could stay exclusive to BB Android handsets similar to how Samsung branded apps are not available on an LG, etc. The other peices related to BES and AFW will definitely be available to other Android devices. But I would argue those are server side and not client (device side) components.

    In terms of slider reliability, I don't disagree with you. This is a much thinner phone than the torch. Only time will tell on the reliability of the mechanism.
    09-22-15 05:20 PM
  15. JohnGrey's Avatar
    The experience suite could stay exclusive to BB Android handsets similar to how Samsung branded apps are not available on an LG, etc. The other peices related to BES and AFW will definitely be available to other Android devices. But I would argue those are server side and not client (device side) components.

    In terms of slider reliability, I don't disagree with you. This is a much thinner phone than the torch. Only time will tell on the reliability of the mechanism.
    You'd better hope not, considering that they're apparently touting a subscription model for the Experience Suite. Either that means that the suite will cost you on top of the phone's purchase price, which means Venice has no chance, or it will be available for all platforms, in which case one of your prime differentiators is lost.

    Posted via CB10
    09-22-15 06:14 PM
  16. joeldf's Avatar
    You'd better hope not, considering that they're apparently touting a subscription model for the Experience Suite. Either that means that the suite will cost you on top of the phone's purchase price, which means Venice has no chance, or it will be available for all platforms, in which case one of your prime differentiators is lost.

    Posted via CB10
    When did they tout that?

    If they do decide to charge their own customers for the experience suite - then screw that. That's like paying for the OS on a BB10 phone.

    More likely, the suite comes with the BB phone and is monetized for other devices.
    Xaiux, ayngling and LuvULongTime like this.
    09-22-15 06:29 PM
  17. RyanGermann's Avatar
    Nothing that I've seen of market research in that regard suggests it, but I'm open to the possibility.
    Could you post some links to that market research?

    They're apparently touting a subscription model for the Experience Suite. Either that means that the suite will cost you on top of the phone's purchase price, which means Venice has no chance, or it will be available for all platforms, in which case one of your prime differentiators is lost.
    Is it possible, just POSSIBLE, that the BB Experience Suite will be included at no extra charge on BB brand devices running Android, and those users on Samsung or LG or Motorola devices that want the BB Experience Suite would be the ones who have to pay for it? Possibly?
    LuvULongTime likes this.
    09-22-15 06:41 PM
  18. jojo beaconsfield's Avatar
    Could you post some links to that market research?



    Is it possible, just POSSIBLE, that the BB Experience Suite will be included at no extra charge on BB brand devices running Android, and those users on Samsung or LG or Motorola devices that want the BB Experience Suite would be the ones who have to pay for it? Possibly?
    Looks like the market has matured,read the last paragraph
    BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) - BlackBerry Needs Software Growth: Morgan Stanley | Benzinga
    09-22-15 06:46 PM
  19. eggbertx3's Avatar
    I'm drinking your kool-aid. I like your thought process!

    Posted via CB10
    09-22-15 08:17 PM
  20. yhamaie's Avatar
    Manufacturers are fighting for a slice of such a huge market.

    http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartpho...rket-share.jsp (Smartphone OS Market Share in Unit Shipments, 2015 Q2)

    Attachment 371229
    http://www.idc.com/prodserv/smartpho...rket-share.png

    Posted via CB10
    09-22-15 08:22 PM
  21. nealworld's Avatar
    Forget the sales,money,percentages.. just get yourself one of the Venice sliders when they arrive..

    Posted via CB10
    09-22-15 08:56 PM
  22. JohnGrey's Avatar
    Could you post some links to that market research?
    Legally, I'm prohibited from doing so. You can just disregard my comment.

    Is it possible, just POSSIBLE, that the BB Experience Suite will be included at no extra charge on BB brand devices running Android, and those users on Samsung or LG or Motorola devices that want the BB Experience Suite would be the ones who have to pay for it? Possibly?
    Not just possible, nearly certain, and I said nothing to the contrary. What you're responding to was my response to LuvULongTime's response when they wrote...

    The experience suite could stay exclusive to BB Android handsets similar to how Samsung branded apps are not available on an LG, etc.
    09-22-15 09:17 PM
  23. RyanGermann's Avatar
    Legally, I'm prohibited from doing so. You can just disregard my comment.
    Consider it done.

    Not just possible, nearly certain, and I said nothing to the contrary. What you're responding to was my response to LuvULongTime's response when they wrote...
    In the future consider assembling sentences with words that mean what you mean instead of something altogether different like... Because this:

    They're apparently touting a subscription model for the Experience Suite. Either that means that the suite will cost you on top of the phone's purchase price, which means Venice has no chance, or it will be available for all platforms, in which case one of your prime differentiators is lost.
    Sounds like a statement of fact followed by speculation of its impact on the success of the Venice, without mentioning the difference between BB's fees to BB device owners vs... you know what. Just forget what I said, too, mset.
    anon4226395 likes this.
    09-22-15 10:13 PM
  24. lnichols's Avatar
    according to statista.com; however if 1 percent of those sales went to the slider with "secure-android" then that will result in sales of the slider well beyond the total BB10 sales to date..... just saying.
    1% of 670 Million is 6.7 Million, less than the total BB10 phones sold and below Chen's 10 Million per year. They will need more than 1% and need to offset the losses from defectors.

    Posted via Z30
    lift likes this.
    09-22-15 10:14 PM
  25. JohnGrey's Avatar
    What I responded to wasn't anything like what you claim you "meant". Whatever.
    Oh, rubbish. The person with whom I was speaking suggested that only BBRY Android handsets were getting the Experience Suite, as I pointed out in the quote. Since they've been marketed as being for sale, that would mean that you would have to pay for them on top of buying an Android handset. Conversely, as I made clear in the post's last clause, the other option was that everyone would have access, in which case the cost would obviously be to users of non-BBRY handsets.
    09-22-15 10:27 PM
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