Updates have previously rolled out on Tuesdays and Fridays starting at midnight PST with the exception of one security update. I've got a calendar entry set to remind me to do a full backup on the night of the 16th. I have a funny feeling that RIM is painfully aware pf the hit they'll take in the media if they miss this mark. Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes!
I still like the 17th, but we won't know until we know...
A little further speculation, entirely personal:
This isn't just a technical update; the whole product will be getting a very public "reboot" with a very aggressive marketing push. If they're smart, they'll be reasonably candid about the challenges this product has faced and admit "mistakes were made".
There will be new accessories announced
There will be new developer support announced. For RIM's sake, it better be major. I think Netflix is an excellent possibility; Skype would be huge.
The date won't just depend on whether the update is ready, it depends on the splash RIM hopes to get...
