01-06-12 03:26 PM
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  1. cathulu15's Avatar
    The 850k sold to consumers number appears to be a fiction, it came out of a hat. The source is? 600k appears more representative. I do hope playbook sells more don't get me wrong, but let's use good estimates unless it comes directly from RIM.

    Sent from my GT-I9100M using Tapatalk
    01-04-12 02:02 PM
  2. ralfyguy's Avatar
    I really wonder what CES is gonna bring next week.
    01-04-12 02:26 PM
  3. peter9477's Avatar
    The 850k sold to consumers number appears to be a fiction, it came out of a hat. The source is? 600k appears more representative. I do hope playbook sells more don't get me wrong, but let's use good estimates unless it comes directly from RIM.
    It wasn't "sold", it was "shipped", and it wasn't pulled out of a hat but rather stated in the Q3 earnings report, which does come directly from RIM. (Technically, the sum of the Q1, Q2, and Q3 reported shipment totals.)
    01-04-12 02:31 PM
  4. cfarm3's Avatar
    It wasn't "sold", it was "shipped", and it wasn't pulled out of a hat but rather stated in the Q3 earnings report, which does come directly from RIM. (Technically, the sum of the Q1, Q2, and Q3 reported shipment totals.)
    The poster has assumed or asserted, incorrectly, that shipped units = sold to an end user. Nope. Just means RIM has sold them into the distribution channel. They could sit as unsold inventory in Staples or BB or someplace else for an extended period of time.
    01-04-12 02:37 PM
  5. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    The poster has assumed or asserted, incorrectly, that shipped units = sold to an end user. Nope. Just means RIM has sold them into the distribution channel. They could sit as unsold inventory in Staples or BB or someplace else for an extended period of time.
    And we also know that during the holiday season many retailers (including eCommerce) SOLD OUT of product. That's anecdotal, to be sure, but it was also pretty widespread.

    I think it's fairly safe to look at the shipped figures to the end of Q3 and assume that pretty much all of that product had been sold to retail customers by the end of Q4.
    peter9477 likes this.
    01-04-12 02:54 PM
  6. cathulu15's Avatar
    That is why I clearly stated sold to consumers. That is the important number... What the ecosystem is built on. There is still unsold inventory from what I have seen... Not Safe to assume shipped equals sold.

    Sent from my GT-I9100M using Tapatalk
    01-04-12 03:43 PM
  7. cathulu15's Avatar
    We all want playbook to succeed... I do. But the facts must come out for rim to fix them.

    Sent from my GT-I9100M using Tapatalk
    01-04-12 03:47 PM
  8. EXDetonator's Avatar
    I really hope the playbook lives, but if it doesnt......playbook hardware+ice cream sandwich=winning.
    01-04-12 04:39 PM
  9. blackjack93117's Avatar
    +1. And when one is unable to deal with reality, they make bad decisions about their situation. No one wants to see RIM fail. However, if RIM is unable to honestly assess their situation, it seems inevitable that it will fail.
    You've been saying that exact same thing for six months, in fact it's about all you have said, and you only show up when there is a doomsday thread like this one to fan the flames.
    Pdinos3 likes this.
    01-04-12 04:41 PM
  10. chasvs's Avatar
    Well call me skeptical, but I've all but given up on RIM to get themselves out of this one. I'm no Troll as evidenced by my extensive time here and numerous Likes and Thanks. But for now, my money is on WP7 OS and the Nokia devices coming out next year.
    01-04-12 04:42 PM
  11. Flexin's Avatar
    The are not marketing it as QNX. Windows XP was a total new OS too, but they kept calling it Windows. I think they have no choice, like Nokia had to develop something new too, but they were stupid enough not to call it Symbian, that when everybody starts feeling abandoned.

    A 7" inch tablet is in many respects a bigger phone and there is market for it. I think they made mistake of directing it too much for the consumer market. Playbook? Companies do not buy a playstation for there personnel. The bridge was great, but the message the send was dualistic. It was trashed in the reviews because it was seen as a consumer device and does not have a large enough candy store. But it should have never appealed to that market. A business tablet does not need a hundred thousand apps, just some excellent tools for managers, secretaries, salesman.

    Nowadays I see a lot of traveling salesmen with tablets instead of notebooks, because it is lighter and in a meeting you can lay it on a table, share info, make notes. Sitting behind a notebook is like introducing a barrier between you and others. This tablet is okay, it has the right formfactor, the system is secure, and stable. Give it another name: Workbook, travelmate, something like that. That is BB's market.

    I love it that they make Android available, but once this is done it should be left at that and they should concentrate on tools for the business market. I can imagine lots of apps that could make it an indispensable tool in a working environment. That is their market. This is not a plaything, it to damn good for that. It has industrial quality. For God's sake QNS is used in nuclear plants, it is that safe. It is future proof, develop it and create great business product.

    The youngsters that buy blackberry do it for just a few things like ping, and because they do not want to be seen with something their parents carry no matter how many apps it has. They do not need a plaything. They simply like the easy communication aspects. I think they can fix it, but it is a marketing thing as much as an app thing.

    Most business devices in the past became a succes just because of one killer app. The spreadsheet on the apple, the word processor in the PC. If it is a great help business will buy it. You really do not need a big appstore. That is where they made the mistake. They should have made an appstore for business. The build in apps are great, but its lacks special business tools. They have to get their marketing right. Stop competing with Android, iPad in the consumer market, that is not the environment you want to be in with this device. Youngster will still buy it if the communication aspects are unique. They love the idea communication is so easy and totally secret. But that is only a bonus for a company in a business environment. You do not need to target this group as they dislike marketing anyway. Look how well MS Kin fared. People in suits can not understand another generation and they should not try.
    I like the name Playbook. I don't think changing the name is a good idea or would even help.

    I disagree with kids caring what their parents are using for cell phones. If that is the case then the iphone market is going to drop like a rock. A lot of parents carry iphones This doesn't seem to bother kids yet.

    Other companies make the apps. Rim could have a team make some business tools (apps). It might not be a bad idea depending on costs.

    No matter what the market you still need the games and so on. A lot of people want them. You also need the devices to be more then just business tools. Some companies still give phones to employees. Some don't allow it to be used as a personal phone as well. This means people still need another phone. You want the devices to be good enough and exciting enough that they get a BB as a personal phone rather then an iphone.

    One killer app doesn't cut it in todays market. And like i pointed out, other companies make the apps so you just need something they want to design for and have the market for them. They will take care of the rest.

    James
    01-04-12 05:33 PM
  12. peter9477's Avatar
    But there is more. By my accounts, RIM spent somewhere between $650 and $800 million more during Q1 and Q2 alone for licenses (software and patents, I presume -- I haven't checked Q3).
    The Q3 numbers say another $375M was dropped on "strategic purchases of intellectual property assets", same phrase used in Q2 for their $780M share of the joint Nortel patent purchase.

    That makes well over $1 billion spent in this fiscal year on patents alone.

    But you do that kind of thing when you're hurting for cash, not to mention when your business is failing ... ;-)
    01-04-12 05:45 PM
  13. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    I really hope the playbook lives, but if it doesnt......playbook hardware+ice cream sandwich=winning.
    Agreed (except maybe with the implied Charlie Sheen reference), the Playbook would make a dandy little Android tablet, but that's beside the point.

    RIM isn't dropping the Playbook. At this point there's little good reason for them to do so and a TON of reasons why it would be a truly bad idea. Since QNX is the platform for BB handsets going forward, it would actually be COUNTERPRODUCTIVE for RIM to discontinue the Playbook.

    Now, if RIM management came out tomorrow and claimed there was no way QNX could ever be made to work, and that the whole platform was being turfed, okay, THEN dropping the Playbook suddenly makes sense, but I have a hard time taking that seriously.

    The odds are better that RIM will simply fail as a company. Possible? Sure, but they'll grimly stick with the PB right to the end, if it comes to that.
    kbz1960 likes this.
    01-04-12 05:51 PM
  14. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    The Q3 numbers say another $375M was dropped on "strategic purchases of intellectual property assets"...
    $100M of that was the NewBay purchase...
    01-04-12 05:56 PM
  15. ElSteve9's Avatar
    It's all about apps. Still too many apps are unavailable for the PB. And even if they do become available, I fear the reputation of the PB as a half-finished product (which is only a comment on the availability of apps at launch, especially basic apps) may be unshakable.


    -Stephen
    01-04-12 05:56 PM
  16. madman0141's Avatar
    The playbook will be around and once the updated software is out things will slowly improve. BB allowed it to be put in this situation and they have the talent to get out of it. It could be worse, you could be spending 500-800 bucks every for new iphone.
    01-04-12 06:12 PM
  17. HabsSuck's Avatar
    glad to see the Bold 9900 commercials, but they should have been out back in September. Why on earth didn't they advertise sooner? Instead most consumers hear negative comments from US media saying BB7 devices don't measure up which is pure fiction.
    The negativity by US media has been a contagion that RIM allowed to grow, consumers pick up on this, they think if the media says BB7 are average they believe it like a sheep.

    Just the other day my niece visited, during the visit she complained and said her BB sucked, i asked why, she said lack of apps, i asked specifically what, app to locate a movie time and map to it, i said have you used POYNT, she replied what's that!
    i gave a quick tour of appworld, BB don't suck anymore.
    01-04-12 06:55 PM
  18. Unsure2's Avatar
    I agree that ad hominen attacks are a poor way to argue, and also just not polite. Useful debate requires exchange of ideas not name-calling.

    While the trend in phone marketshare has apparently turned against RIM, the company remains solvent, one of the major players and with valuable assets. One can argue that the stock market pays too much attention to perceived future value (i.e. trends that affect future market share, here) rather than current value; but that is just the way it is. Aside from its phone and email business, RIM is sitting on one of the most valuable portfolio of patents in the industry. In fact, unless RIM's stock price stops its decline, at some point soon, the company is going to get bought up just for its patents.

    RIM's fortunes do not depend on the Playbook, IMHO. RIM hoped to create an "enterprise" solution based on phones paired with tablets. The bridge feature sounds nice, even if I don't have a BB phone. But, for whatever reason, the market has not accepted the idea. So, I don't see bridge as something that's going to save the Playbook. I also see no reason RIM can't go on without the Playbook. Its real business is phones and phone-based services, and there it can still compete.

    Of course, I am hoping RIM continues to support the tablet, since I have one; but, more and more, the numbers just do not make sense. Amazon has its media business to use in subsidizing the Fire at $199. In fact, if the manufacture cost of the Fire declines much more, Amazon can probably afford to give it out free, since the Fire, among other things, is a terminal the user uses to buy Amazon products. RIM has nothing comparable to leverage, while the Playbook costs more to make than the Fire. Other new 7" tablets are also breathing down its neck. Toshiba and Samsung have just come out with new 7" tablets that sell for as little as $350 (and will probably have to come down toward the Fire's price soon, if they remain in play). Dell has just given up on a 7" tablet. And, rumor has it that Applie will bring out a 7" tablet later this year. Really, it is probably irrational for RIM to go on selling tablets at a loss, when all the signs are the situation will just get worse.
    01-04-12 07:25 PM
  19. LuvULongTime's Avatar
    RIM certainly has a steep mountain to climb. With that said, I hope they do not abandon the Playbook just yet. I would really like to see how it will be received by the public with the OS 2.0 update (and assumed increase in available apps). The hardware and OS are very nice and it would be a shame to give up on it.
    ralfyguy likes this.
    01-04-12 08:33 PM
  20. HabsSuck's Avatar
    this is what Mike Lazaridis said during the Q2 earnings conference:

    Some of the key enhancements that we expect to be delivered in the PlayBook 2.0 release are: built-in native email, calendar and contacts; robust enterprise features, including BlackBerry Balance to allow management of personal liable devices; the previously announced Android app player; enhanced web browsing; the availability of new consumer apps and social -- the availability of new consumer apps and multimedia and video content, including BlackBerry video store, which will have 10,000 movies and TV shows available on demand to buy or rent as well as new movie releases on the same day as DVD availability; and of course, with the built-in HDMI output, the ability to enjoy videos on your TV without the need to purchase additional system components, as well as further improvements to BlackBerry Bridge.
    peter9477 likes this.
    01-04-12 08:48 PM
  21. KennethD's Avatar
    Which brings to mind that possibility of adding phone features to the Playbook...that would be a first for a tablet.
    Too late it's been done.
    http://www.popsci.com/gadgets/articl...-debuts-berlin

    Sent from my AT100 using Tapatalk
    01-04-12 09:21 PM
  22. pkcable's Avatar
    Folks,

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    omniusovermind likes this.
    01-04-12 10:35 PM
  23. Pearl9100's Avatar
    I'll start us back on topic.

    I think Rim has dug itself into a hole that it cannot get out of with the pb; however, I don't think the co-CEO's are ready to call it quits yet because they are haughty and stubborn. But eventually (I am thinking by late summer), I think they will realize that they will start to consider an exit strategy, but by that time they will be pretty far up the creek without a paddle.

    Also, I think the fierce competition with windows 8 tablets and tablet pcs will squeeze rim out of the the tablet market. Plus, they are hemorrhaging money (half a billion is a lot in my books). To me, it is only a matter of time before rim calls it quits.
    Last edited by Pearl9100; 01-05-12 at 01:22 AM.
    01-05-12 01:15 AM
  24. Interloper.'s Avatar
    I'll start us back on topic.

    I think Rim has dug itself into a hole that it cannot get out of with the pb; however, I don't think the co-CEO's are ready to call it quits yet because they are haughty and stubborn. But eventually (I am thinking by late summer), I think they will realize that they will need an exit strategy, but by that time they will be pretty far up the creek without a paddle.

    Again, this uncertainty of pb's future is keeping me from buying a pb. I don't want to buy outdated equipment.
    They will be gone as chairmen *way* sooner than that.

    Todays news (for most of you anyway):
    Analysts and sources familiar with the company expect the committee to recommend a division of duties, replacing Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie as co-chairs, though not as CEOs. They expect the company to tap Barbara Stymiest, who is well known in business as the former chief operating officer at Royal Bank of Canada and ex-CEO of what is now TMX Group Inc., as the new chair.
    New chair but few radical changes expected at RIM - The Globe and Mail

    As I foretold Jan 2:
    http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...76/index2.html , (1. New Chairperson (note the Chairperson, not Chairman) to replace Mike and Jim)
    so it shall come to pass.

    The new Chair*person* will "study strategic options". Gee, I wonder what that will include?

    Stay tuned for
    2. Big announcement about getting back to core competencies to "Make us great again yada yada". That clears their "committed to tablet" schtick from the buffer.

    and of course, drumroll please......
    3. Kill the PlayBook after Tablet OS 2 release. They have to put something out. Not saying it will be great, but something labeled 2.O. Maybe even in February! Tablet death date somewhere around May 2012.

    One down, two to go. I caveated prediction 4, but probabilities still favour that too:

    4. Probably the above and other moves will be too little to late and RIM will be sold (more likely) or broken up and sold. Not sure about 4. Their "secure enterprise communications network" and a dwindling but still significant share of the handset market may allow them to survive intact. Or they could sell their handset division and try to pimp their network assets to other handset companies.
    Pearl9100 likes this.
    01-05-12 01:34 AM
  25. Pearl9100's Avatar
    They will be gone as chairmen *way* sooner than that.

    Todays news (for most of you anyway):
    Analysts and sources familiar with the company expect the committee to recommend a division of duties, replacing Mike Lazaridis and Jim Balsillie as co-chairs, though not as CEOs. They expect the company to tap Barbara Stymiest, who is well known in business as the former chief operating officer at Royal Bank of Canada and ex-CEO of what is now TMX Group Inc., as the new chair.
    New chair but few radical changes expected at RIM - The Globe and Mail

    As I foretold Jan 2:
    http://forums.crackberry.com/blackbe...76/index2.html , (1. New Chairperson (note the Chairperson, not Chairman) to replace Mike and Jim)
    so it shall come to pass.

    The new Chair*person* will "study strategic options". Gee, I wonder what that will include?

    Stay tuned for
    2. Big announcement about getting back to core competencies to "Make us great again yada yada". That clears their "committed to tablet" schtick from the buffer.

    and of course, drumroll please......
    3. Kill the PlayBook after Tablet OS 2 release. They have to put something out. Not saying it will be great, but something labeled 2.O. Maybe even in February! Tablet death date somewhere around May 2012.

    One down, two to go. I caveated prediction 4, but probabilities still favour that too:

    4. Probably the above and other moves will be too little to late and RIM will be sold (more likely) or broken up and sold. Not sure about 4. Their "secure enterprise communications network" and a dwindling but still significant share of the handset market may allow them to survive intact. Or they could sell their handset division and try to pimp their network assets to other handset companies.
    As I said before, this is a great post. I like the way you think. You have a good (business) head on your shoulders. You and I can clank glasses when the pb gets cancelled and reminisce how we called it months ago.

    I have zero confidence in rim committing to the pb. It is a losing battle to enter the tablet market because of the fierce competition, and it is only going to get worst with the advent of windows 8. Win 8 tablet pcs might devastate the tablet market...but that is another discussion for another time. My point is that rim will be looking for a exit strategy in the tablet market. It becomes evident when one takes into consideration all of the factors. They especially cannot sustain such massive losses.
    01-05-12 02:13 AM
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