[Superfly_FR]

I respectfully disagree. The PB is hurting RIM just by being there. Right now, the best case scenario is if they do not sell any. Even that costs them money. The current reality is that every unit they sell loses them money, with no clear path to profit.

Their reputation is hurt every time there is a new story about the PB. There is not a single tech journalist or blogger who does not laugh or wince at every mention of the PB, not one! The PB is the most visible failure and target for justifiable criticism. It is the visible embodiment of RIM's management not having a clue.

There is NOTHING RIM can offer against the iPad 3 to make the PB less of a joke in the market. It will be all dressed up in an ill-fitting Android costume with it's biggest marketable feature being, "We finally have email!" I don't see any benefit in keeping it around that is not offset by the damage it is doing every day.

First, I fully agree with the thought that PB is a mandatory turn for RIM to deploy QNX before it hits the phones. A such massive change would have been foolish if implemented directly to phones. What will be QNX environment in the (near) future seems today a bit foggy, but we know already that it is by nature a cross-environment platform (tablets, phones, infotainement, domotic ...), and if (yet a big if) the natural link is made ... well the combos that will be enabled will just create what someone once call "a new experience".
So ... you can bet, but don't pay too much.

PlayBook is my companion (with its fellow 9900) for months now and it deserves all my thanks (and not "love", it's not my personal "Ixtension" ) for being exactly what I bought it for, when I bought it for : mostly surf, emails, agenda and HD web site demos threw HDMI. I found no other tablet with (even without) this form factor to match.

The game isn't anymore about what can/can't do/be the PB, it's about finance and marketing. I wish RIM will prove its capability to DELIVER, the sooner, the best. In the meantime, I'll wait, still using my PB+9900 each day.

P.s: Ipad3 is nothing but a rumor, yet ...

[John Yester]

Seriously. Everyone please take a step back and relax.


Personal attacks have been happening more and more lately and it stops now.

Obviously warnings are not taking hold with some of you.

We can't say it enough, debate the company or device. But not each other in this manner we have seen lately.

[scott.slater]

By my count, that is 72 words of personal attack with zero content contributed to the topic.

Wow, the definiton of a troll with that statement. Take yourself somewhere where your negative views are welcomed, thanks.

On topic, I see the current Playbook getting all sorts of love from RIM the first half of the year (marketing, the new OS, new packaging, CES, etc.) and the haters will have to review the Playbook again because with 2.0 we will realize more likely what the Playbook should have been to begin with.

This gains momentum for their current phones, BBOS7 devices, because of the BlackBerry Bridge feature alone (which is what tablets are anyways, just an extension of your phone really) leading to a great first half of the year for RIM. Most people don't even really follow what phones are coming out anyway.

This momentum carries on for their new phones coming out in the secomd half of 2012 being the darlings of the year and the painful road back to relevence is fulfilled.

[kbz1960]

Well let me be the first to say thank God you do not run RIM or have anything to do with them. Please go use your ipad whatever number it is. I guess it is no fun in perfect apple forum land. What do people talk about there? All post of, my apple is great and no one can compete. I am happy. Yes I can see why you hang out here.

Please everyone refrain from posts like mine. It is an attack?

[grahamf]

[dandbj13]

Back to predictions about the PB. Someone still needs to lay out a scenario where the PB becomes profitable, or is that not important? It is not about selling more PBs at a loss. That's easy. If loss-leading is the strategy, what does the loss lead to? Apps won't do it, not even close.

Also, it is fun to pretend that the PB is in a competitive vacuum, but it is not. If only half of what is expected for the imminent iPad refresh comes to light, the PB will have a hard time marketing against that reality. Trying to figure out how it does that reveals my failure of imagination. The iPad 2 will surely drop in price and be a budget option for a while. Why would RIM continue to throw good money after bad with no foreseeable return?

Anyway, I have sufficiently supported my prediction for the PB. Let's try to discuss the content of the post rather than the one who posted it.

[Thunderbuck]

I respectfully disagree. The PB is hurting RIM just by being there. Right now, the best case scenario is if they do not sell any. Even that costs them money. The current reality is that every unit they sell loses them money, with no clear path to profit.

Their reputation is hurt every time there is a new story about the PB. There is not a single tech journalist or blogger who does not laugh or wince at every mention of the PB, not one! The PB is the most visible failure and target for justifiable criticism. It is the visible embodiment of RIM's management not having a clue.

There is NOTHING RIM can offer against the iPad 3 to make the PB less of a joke in the market. It will be all dressed up in an ill-fitting Android costume with it's biggest marketable feature being, "We finally have email!" I don't see any benefit in keeping it around that is not offset by the damage it is doing every day.

This is, at best, a mischaracterization, and at worst just flat wrong. Sorry.

No, they don't lose money at this point with every PB sold. They already essentially paid for the first production run with that $500Million writedown last fall. And while a $199 16GB probably DOES represent a loss on the original production cost, they likely at least break even on a $299 32GB.

Every unit that gets sold through to a customer makes the platform more attractive to developers. Rovio bringing Angry Birds to the PB may seem kind of silly and trivial, but it represents a major publisher that's decided to support the platform. It's that whole chicken/egg thing, but the bottom line is that the app ecosystem will be vastly better for customers by the time OS 2 is released. That will make the device a more valuable proposition.

The device itself is really good (much better hardware than, say, the TouchPad was). OS 2.0--even in developer preview form--is really good, and will address almost all of the current frustrations. There will be a video store. There will be native e-mail. And the odds are good there will be a gorgeous UI from TAT, or at least a great app or two.

The Playbook can be rehabilitated. It needs to be done right, but it can be done. And if RIM pulls it off, in a few years we'll be looking back and saying that the Storm did much more damage than the Playbook did.

[dandbj13]

TB, we are just not going to agree on much of this. I have no more facts than you do. Still I believe that when all the costs, not just parts, are considered, they are still losing money at $299. At best, profit would be very slim. So let's stipulate everything you have suggested. Is it enough to get the masses to pay $349 for the entry level, which is what I speculate is necessary? The selling points are still that it runs some Android apps and has email. That hasn't changed or improved in your scenario. Sell it for less and it is making no money. Sell it for more and it is up agains the reduced priced iPad, which I suspect it will be anyway.

This is not about whether RIM can bring the software up to code; it is about if they can rehabilitate the PB so that it sells to the masses at a price that is above break-even. If they can't do that, it doesn't make sense to continue IMO. Please do not mistake this for saying the PB will be no good with 2.0. I'm sure it will be great. That is not the same as it being profitable.

[Pearl9100]

You are wrong. The playbook is getting the OS ready for the phones. How well do you think RIM would be doing now if the playbook was a phone? They would all ready be dead. Because of the playbook when they do release the phones they will be more stable and will have ready apps for them. Believe all you want. It was that or no tablet or QNX phone for at least another year or longer.

That is why Rim should have put all of their available resources into developing qnx for phones and made sure qnx is running well before they started to doing 525,600 things at once. They should have made sure that they had one solid product instead of 20 eh ones (not to mention the seemingly perpetual delays).

They cannot aggressively grow the bb brand that they want to by stretching themselves too thin and losing talent

[Pearl9100]

Please. Even though many of my recent, and honest, posts have been deleted by the mods. I am not a troll - I am an IP professional, retired human factors psychologist, now an investor. I am not a hater - I use and like my PB32 very much and recognize that is is a great device.

But, I am a realist - it is over. It is obvious. RIM has already made the decision to discontinue the Playbook. Deplete the inventory fast, release the OS - ready or not, provide minimal support, then - nada. They made a big mistake. They know it. They can not/will not continue on this path. The Playbook is already history.

The decisions regarding developing the new resources or selling them off, hopefully at a profit but more likely at a loss, have not been made yet but will be very soon. It will be a business decision, i.e., financial, decided by investors. Soon.

I totally agree. Anyone who has been around the block knows the tell tale signs. It is very obvious. Especially with the huge write down.

[scott.slater]

Problem with giving up on the Playbook is that they are then throwing in the towel on their future phones. There is nothing wrong with them supporting the Playbook for the next year as that is as well support for their phones.

And RIM cannot just let the tablet market slip away. If any company needs the tablet market to thrive, it is any company that is in the mobile industry, i.e. RIM, HTC, Samsung, Apple, etc.

[dandbj13]

Problem with giving up on the Playbook is that they are then throwing in the towel on their future phones.

I will never understand this idea. Tablets do not equal phones. Just because you make one mobile device does not mean you have to make every mobile device. With that logic, RIM should be making laptops, as everyone is trying to copy the Macbook Air. No! RIM does not need to be fooling around with this expensive hobby they can ill-afford.

There is more churn from RIM customers than any other major brand. Tablets have no chance of turning that around; better phones will. RIM can play around with pads, pods, notebooks, and set-top boxes when they have stabilized their base in phones.

[app_Developer]

Problem with giving up on the Playbook is that they are then throwing in the towel on their future phones. There is nothing wrong with them supporting the Playbook for the next year as that is as well support for their phones.

Well, it depends on what you mean by "throwing in the towel". It certainly makes sense to keep trying to sell what they have already made and written down. But do they really need to make more PBs to help push BB10 along?

If the reasoning is that PB users are good beta testers for BB10, then do you really need more that a million beta testers? Doesn't RIM already know at this point what they need to build to complete the OS?

And RIM cannot just let the tablet market slip away. If any company needs the tablet market to thrive, it is any company that is in the mobile industry, i.e. RIM, HTC, Samsung, Apple, etc.

The thing is RIM is going into this BB10 fight all alone at this point. HTC and Samsung benefit from their partnership with a massive advertising company with tens of billions of dollars in the bank. Nokia is partnered with a massive software company also with tens of billions in the bank.

And then there's Apple, which has more cash to invest in these markets than the other two massive companies put together.

Oh, and now there's Amazon, too.

So with just a billion and a half in the bank, and facing a huge marketing war at the end of 2012, is a loss leader tablet really *that* critical?

It would be different if they were sitting on $80B and getting hugely preferential pricing on components, etc. The average price point for tablets is slipping into the $200-300 range now. That's really tough for a smaller company, don't you think?

I'm not saying it wouldn't be nice to have a stake in the tablet market. But it seems RIM might want to focus their limited ammunition right now. Every $ spent on a PB ad is a $ not spent on countering Microsoft's incentives to phone salespeople or a $ not spent on a BB10 phone ad.

[tharrison4815]

You are wrong. The playbook is getting the OS ready for the phones. How well do you think RIM would be doing now if the playbook was a phone? They would all ready be dead. Because of the playbook when they do release the phones they will be more stable and will have ready apps for them. Believe all you want. It was that or no tablet or QNX phone for at least another year or longer.

Absolutely. They are actually putting phones first when you think about it, the Playbook only exists to improve their future phones. I've always seen the Playbook a low-risk beta test for their next generation of phones. It makes total sense to me and I am very happy to be a part of said testing

Like you said, if they released QNX based phones without substantial testing it would have been a total disaster. After all, Blackberry users (which includes a large business base) expect a certain level of reliability. Releasing the Playbook early on in development of their new OS makes sense to help achieve that reliability prior to launch.

[dandbj13]

...the Playbook only exists to improve their future phones. I've always seen the Playbook a low-risk beta test for their next generation of phones.

Wow! That feels rather revisionist to me. It started life as an iPad killer, and has now been demoted to low-risk beta test for their future phones. I wonder how many they would have sold had that been the initial pitch.

[kbz1960]

I will never understand this idea. Tablets do not equal phones. Just because you make one mobile device does not mean you have to make every mobile device. With that logic, RIM should be making laptops, as everyone is trying to copy the Macbook Air. No! RIM does not need to be fooling around with this expensive hobby they can ill-afford.

There is more churn from RIM customers than any other major brand. Tablets have no chance of turning that around; better phones will. RIM can play around with pads, pods, notebooks, and set-top boxes when they have stabilized their base in phones.

But a phone equals a tablet or pad? If it isn't done the apple way then it will never work? And no rim should not be making laptops. They are a mobile company and tablets are considered a mobile device, laptops are not. There is still a huge untapped market for tablets. The playbook will make the new phones better for release. The apps (make all the fun you want about this) that are building for the playbook will be all most ready made for the phones.

I don't know what is going to happen to the current playbook. My guess is it will be updated for awhile yet. It will be replaced by then next RIM tablet before updates for it are done. The replacement may be the same size or it may be bigger. The replacement will have a LTE chip in it.

This all of course assumes RIM isn't going anywhere.

[Unsure2]

TB, we are just not going to agree on much of this. I have no more facts than you do. Still I believe that when all the costs, not just parts, are considered, they are still losing money at $299. At best, profit would be very slim. So let's stipulate everything you have suggested. Is it enough to get the masses to pay $349 for the entry level, which is what I speculate is necessary? The selling points are still that it runs some Android apps and has email. That hasn't changed or improved in your scenario. Sell it for less and it is making no money. Sell it for more and it is up agains the reduced priced iPad, which I suspect it will be anyway.

This is not about whether RIM can bring the software up to code; it is about if they can rehabilitate the PB so that it sells to the masses at a price that is above break-even. If they can't do that, it doesn't make sense to continue IMO. Please do not mistake this for saying the PB will be no good with 2.0. I'm sure it will be great. That is not the same as it being profitable.

Yes, it's all about making money selling the Playbook. Unless RIM suddenly starts up a Netflix-type operation, I simply see no way RIM can leverage profits on something else to support the Playbook at the $200 price point established by the Fire. When that rumored Google/Apple 7" tablet hits the streets, the situation is just going to get worse. Unless RIM really does have a rabbit to pull out of its corporate hat, it probably will fold this hand now, and concentrate on phones.

[bourgolo]

1. New Chairperson (note the Chairperson, not Chairman) to replace Mike and Jim.

2. Big announcement about getting back to core competencies to "Make us great again yada yada". That clears their "committed to tablet" schtick from the buffer.

3. Kill the PlayBook after Tablet OS 2 release. They have to put something out. Not saying it will be great, but something labeled 2.O. Maybe even in February! Tablet death date somewhere around May 2012.

4. Probably the above and other moves will be too little to late and RIM will be sold (more likely) or broken up and sold. Not sure about 4. Their "secure enterprise communications network" and a dwindling but still significant share of the handset market may allow them to survive intact. Or they could sell their handset division and try to pimp their network assets to other handset companies.

Regardless, there will be no PlayBook or any other tablet by RIM by the Summer of 2012. They simply can't go into another general shareholders meeting (late summer 2012) with this dog or its puppy alive.

The following or something very like the following has been landing on investors breakfast tables for the last 6 months:
"Much of the negative sentiment around RIM in 2011 was caused by the underwhelming launch and poor performance the BlackBerry PlayBook tablet computer, a device that was supposed to be RIM�s answer to rival Apple Inc.�s iPad. While some analysts expected RIM to sell several million PlayBooks in its first year, to date, RIM has sold only about 850,000."

Quote from todays business.financialpost.com. I like my quotes fresh but feel free to pick from dozens of others over the last several months.

I predict this will be wrong...as most predictions tend to be. Waiting patiently to buy a BB10 superphone to go with my super duper Playbook

[peter9477]

Unless RIM suddenly starts up a Netflix-type operation, I simply see no way RIM can leverage profits on something else to support the Playbook at the $200 price point established by the Fire.

RIM suddenly starting a Netflix-type operation?

Interesting idea.

Maybe like, oh, I don't know, this one?

[blackjack93117]

Please. Even though many of my recent, and honest, posts have been deleted by the mods. I am not a troll - I am an IP professional, retired human factors psychologist, now an investor. I am not a hater - I use and like my PB32 very much and recognize that is is a great device.

But, I am a realist - it is over. It is obvious. RIM has already made the decision to discontinue the Playbook. Deplete the inventory fast, release the OS - ready or not, provide minimal support, then - nada. They made a big mistake. They know it. They can not/will not continue on this path. The Playbook is already history.

The decisions regarding developing the new resources or selling them off, hopefully at a profit but more likely at a loss, have not been made yet but will be very soon. It will be a business decision, i.e., financial, decided by investors. Soon.

But it was over 6 months ago, the exact same predictions. Why is it not over yet? Seriously I count about 5 posters who agree with this and they are making about 25 posts each per day.. trying to convince the other 500 or so of us that it is over. What gives ? You want it to be over that bad? Or you just want everyone to have the impression that it is over with (Psych1)ology. . And why?

In the famous words of him who shall not be named... what's it to ya? Very odd behavior.

[Interloper.]

I predict this will be wrong...as most predictions tend to be. Waiting patiently to buy a BB10 superphone to go with my super duper Playbook

Really? Just wrong? All 4 parts? Some of it? Why do you think it is wrong?

Come on man, throw us a bone. Just saying "nope" is, at the very least, boring.

[the_sleuth]

My 2012 predictions:
1) Lazaridis will present PB OS 2.0 at CES next week and demonstrate PIM tools and native email. BGR and other media will bash it as a failure due to no BBM demonstrated.

2) RIM will not launch PB HSPA or 4G until it has a better gauge of consumer reception to the new OS release.

3) Apple announces iPad 3 in March for release in early May and drops the price of iPad 2 to starting price of $399

4) Several Android tablet manufacturers will exit the tablet market.

5) Balsillie and Lazaridis will not regain billionaire status.

6) Balsillie will not bid for a NHL team.

7) RIM will be swirled in takeover speculation as it's financials deteriorate.

8) RIM will launch a video rental service.

9) RIM launches Fusion and it is warmly received by enterprise (rare success of year)

10) BBOS 10 launches in November after Devcon and RIM's U.S market share is at 7%

[Thunderbuck]

TB, we are just not going to agree on much of this. I have no more facts than you do. Still I believe that when all the costs, not just parts, are considered, they are still losing money at $299. At best, profit would be very slim. So let's stipulate everything you have suggested. Is it enough to get the masses to pay $349 for the entry level, which is what I speculate is necessary? The selling points are still that it runs some Android apps and has email. That hasn't changed or improved in your scenario. Sell it for less and it is making no money. Sell it for more and it is up agains the reduced priced iPad, which I suspect it will be anyway.

This is not about whether RIM can bring the software up to code; it is about if they can rehabilitate the PB so that it sells to the masses at a price that is above break-even. If they can't do that, it doesn't make sense to continue IMO. Please do not mistake this for saying the PB will be no good with 2.0. I'm sure it will be great. That is not the same as it being profitable.

You're forgetting the Playbook's potential as a media platform, and they haven't even scratched the surface on that yet.

We're supposed to be seeing the Video Store released with OS 2.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[peter9477]

You mean the one they announced at the same time as the big OCTOBER release of OS 2.0?

Yes, that one. It's also the same one they reaffirmed would be part of the 2.0 release when they announced the delay to February.

[pythons]

Think about the reality of RIM's situation currently with all the pre-Playbook hype about QNX...
...The RIM tablet brings literally ZERO of the popular functionality offered via Apple & Droid.
...Most consumers demand ( not want ) secular functionality on their tablet.

At it's current state the Playbook can't support Netflix, Hulu or even Google Maps...
...The PDF reader is esentially junk compared to an ipad or Droid.
...And there is literally NOTHING in the way of business support ( Apps ) for the RIM slab.

So, a tablet that has "play" in it's name can't handle ANY of the most popluar play things the other tablets do...
...And there is literally nothing in the way of business the tablet offers.

It may shock some after my saying this that I bought two of 16gb Playbooks at the $199.00 price...
...For what I needed it fit the bill perfectly as one of them is headed Asia to my wife's brother.
...To take advantage of the video chat feature the Playbook offers.
...Which is excellent by the way.

The other things I really like about the Playbook is the size - I prefer it to my company issued ipad....
...And frankly the quality of what is displayed on the screen is every bit as good as the ipad.
...In some cases the same youtube videos looks far better on the Playbook than the ipad.

It's very easy to drag and drop music, movies and podcasts on the Playbook and it's even easier to pack around...
...Paired with a blackberry phone the bridge system works exceptionally well.
...And there is no need to spend extra money on another data plan.

The playbooks major malfunction is it's lack to handle those things MOST people who are in the market for a tablet want...
...Such as the aforementioned Netflix, hulu, google maps, etc, etc, etc.
...Add to that no native email, calendar, etc.
...That was just stupid.


Worse yet now that everyone knows what QNX CAN'T do what would the point be of bringing a herd of new Blackberry phones into the market....
...Can you imagine it - a new QNX blackberry that can't use google maps.
...Or function with a great majority of Android widgets!
...RIM would be out of it's mind to bring something like that out - it's straight out of the gong show.

Unless a miracle happens RIM is done - they have squandered their Apex Global position...
...And will be reduced to watching what others come up with from the side-lines.

It pisses me off to no end as I have been a blackberry fan for years and still am one...
...At one point a person has to face reality however and that time has come.