[advcomputer]

Part of a WSJ Article.

Research in Motion: Another Analyst Bails, Stock Bounces - MarketBeat - WSJ

RIM is working on a new core operating system for handsets which RIM has said are due in “early 2012.” New devices were not shown at last week’s developer’s conference and we are worried that RIM could face a product gap of several months. To our understanding, handsets based on the new operating system (QNX, now rebranded as BBX) are likely to be shown at the Mobile World Congress show in February, but could ship by May, 2012 or later. We think this creates a risk of another year of product delays and lower earnings.

Inventory at RIM has spiked in the past six months to $1.4b, up $725mm YoY. We think that RIM had initial plans to sell between 4-7mm PlayBooks in its first year and so far shipments of 700,000 have fallen far short. We think there is risk of inventory write-offs. Additionally we think there is risk that some of RIM’s contractual obligations to suppliers could also result in charges. This off-balance sheet item stands at $7.9B, up $1.5b from a year ago.

Our discussions with several carriers, distributors and developers around the world suggest to us that BlackBerry is becoming less relevant. Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia appears to be gaining the confidence of carriers as a third smartphone platform after Apple’s iOS and Google. The recent BlackBerry network outages were seen as a significant issue. stands at $7.9B, up $1.5b from a year ago.

Based on a weak track record in the past three years, our perception of product delays and declining support from carriers, we doubt that RIM can restore the confidence of customers and investors. We substantially reduced our forecasts for BlackBerry shipments and earnings in F2013. RIM’s valuation is low and well below peers, with shares trading at 6x C2011 EPS vs. peers at 14x. This may attract value investors, activist shareholders and potential takeover talk. Our target of US$18.00 is based on 5 times F2013 EPS of $3.58. REDUCE.

[xxplosive82]

I jumped ship on BB handsets. I'm growing impatient with my PlayBook as well. Basically, the size is the only reason I still have it.

[advcomputer]

I still have BB handsets two playbooks. They are good products, but I believe the PB is a great piece of equipment.

It's the management that really sucks.

[MontanaVista]

I just bought my fourth Blackberry handset and sold my 1st Gen iPad so that I could buy the Playbook. I'm not going to let financial analysts and non-BB users scare me away from BB and RIM. I just have no desire to learn the Android OS, and I don't want to join the Apple bandwagon. I don't feel like I'm missing anything serious app-wise, there is a popular app every 6 weeks and then it fizzles out. Perhaps I am, but the apps I have on my BB and PB have been more than sufficient. Additionally, I'm loyal to the brand and proud of that. I like RIM's products, and now I also feel like I'm not buying into the current Android/Apple fad. RIM is suffering now, and hopefully they are learning and adapting so they are still strong in the future. Just my 2 cents.

[tommynap01]

very sad but true

[aaast36]

So I'm writing off the tip of my head, and combining some people's thoughts about the ultimate RIM conspiracy.....It's a decent article, and it certainly has financial merit, but has anyone thought that the WSJ being owned by Newscorp and this article are a RIM killing article? If BB is one of the most secure platforms, and tons of celebs use it for the secure features, Newscorp would benefit from Rim's downfall? Less secure phones and data can be intercepted and tapped so much more easily than a Blackberry.

[stillzmatik]

So I'm writing off the tip of my head, and combining some people's thoughts about the ultimate RIM conspiracy.....It's a decent article, and it certainly has financial merit, but has anyone thought that the WSJ being owned by Newscorp and this article are a RIM killing article? If BB is one of the most secure platforms, and tons of celebs use it for the secure features, Newscorp would benefit from Rim's downfall? Less secure phones and data can be intercepted and tapped so much more easily than a Blackberry.

What? Maybe it's me, but I see no correlation between mobile devices and selling the news?

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[easydoesit99]

It appears the only ones that are still touting RIM's greatness are the Lizard, the Bull****ious, and some fanboys. Even the Crackberry boys are finding it hard to keep the RIMpire going. The Devcon seemed more like a dysfunctional bout of avoidance then a realistic report on RIM's past year and its future.

That said I still support RIM and will keep my BB and PB. My plan is to skip the OS7 phones and wait for the BBX phones to upgrade to.

[anon(3641385)]

What? Maybe it's me, but I see no correlation between mobile devices and selling the news?

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

The phone hacking scandal in England was Murdoch's Press .....

[notfanboy]

So I'm writing off the tip of my head, and combining some people's thoughts about the ultimate RIM conspiracy.....It's a decent article, and it certainly has financial merit, but has anyone thought that the WSJ being owned by Newscorp and this article are a RIM killing article? If BB is one of the most secure platforms, and tons of celebs use it for the secure features, Newscorp would benefit from Rim's downfall? Less secure phones and data can be intercepted and tapped so much more easily than a Blackberry.

This theory is flat out insane. Unless you're joking, in which case, haha good one.

[BBThemes]

wait what?! so apple hold WWDC and dont show any new devices, just an OS and thats all fine, their product is delayed/later than normal and thats cool too (even when it affects their sales figures as ppl holding out for new one). yet as soon as RIM dont show a phone, just after launching their current range, and its all doom and gloom? hmm, jumping off the deep end there i think.

IF they can ship their BBX phone by end Q1 or thereabouts, thats at most 6 months `product gap` (shock horror!) which would be totally fine as you dont want to make people feel like theyve jus bought a phone and its already superceeded (heres looking at the Galaxys S2 folks that just got one then saw the nexus prime). however IF they`d shown a BBX handset at devcon, wouldnt RIM simply be killing sales of their OS7 devices? thats not a smart move either, so i can see why they`ve done it, also, lets be quiet fair here, WP7 has virtually NO traction, but hey dont take my word for it, Orange (a uk carrier) have already been saying that its got poor sales.

[lnichols]

also, lets be quiet fair here, WP7 has virtually NO traction, but hey dont take my word for it, Orange (a uk carrier) have already been saying that its got poor sales.

But WP7 Mango has been anointed by the press as the third ecosystem. The fact that no one wants them or buys them shouldn't stop this.

Anyway I'm not sure on if RIM can get this thing out by the end of Q1. I just don't think they have it in them. They are showing no sense of urgency on getting the Playbook up to snuff. They seem to have the focus of someone with ADHD. I hope I'm wrong but they just haven't given us much to work with to generate optimism.

[BBThemes]

But WP7 Mango has been anointed by the press as the third ecosystem. The fact that no one wants them or buys them shouldn't stop this.

as its the same press that heralded the arrival of the iphone5......oops

[xxplosive82]

It will be a very long while before RIM can evolve their ecosystem necessary to compete in the smartdevice world. The reason Apple is so successful is because 1) Their stuff is dead-simple to use and 2) Everything works in concert. Trust me, i was team Berry for 3 years, so it was tough to jump ship. RIM was never really a consumer company, they were focused on enterprise. Thats cool! Really, it is. Unfortunately, they were t able to evolve like most would like. Im not sure how they could have. Apple had the luxury of deciding what they wanted to do. Google/Android is in the same boat. Neither was forced by another to be something they arent.

Sorry for the rambling. Typing much on any mobile device wont look pretty lol.

[ryork272]

Just what are you talking about? Have you not heard of the security breaches involving RIM devices? And somehow WSJ is conspiring against RIM? Have you not read the thousands of articles from other publishers?

Open your eyes and look at RIM for what they truly are: A total has been that is completely out of touch with the consumer.

[bb-bandit]

Part of a WSJ Article.

Research in Motion: Another Analyst Bails, Stock Bounces - MarketBeat - WSJ

RIM is working on a new core operating system for handsets which RIM has said are due in �early 2012.� New devices were not shown at last week�s developer�s conference and we are worried that RIM could face a product gap of several months. To our understanding, handsets based on the new operating system (QNX, now rebranded as BBX) are likely to be shown at the Mobile World Congress show in February, but could ship by May, 2012 or later. We think this creates a risk of another year of product delays and lower earnings.

Inventory at RIM has spiked in the past six months to $1.4b, up $725mm YoY. We think that RIM had initial plans to sell between 4-7mm PlayBooks in its first year and so far shipments of 700,000 have fallen far short. We think there is risk of inventory write-offs. Additionally we think there is risk that some of RIM�s contractual obligations to suppliers could also result in charges. This off-balance sheet item stands at $7.9B, up $1.5b from a year ago.

Our discussions with several carriers, distributors and developers around the world suggest to us that BlackBerry is becoming less relevant. Microsoft�s alliance with Nokia appears to be gaining the confidence of carriers as a third smartphone platform after Apple�s iOS and Google. The recent BlackBerry network outages were seen as a significant issue. stands at $7.9B, up $1.5b from a year ago.

Based on a weak track record in the past three years, our perception of product delays and declining support from carriers, we doubt that RIM can restore the confidence of customers and investors. We substantially reduced our forecasts for BlackBerry shipments and earnings in F2013. RIM�s valuation is low and well below peers, with shares trading at 6x C2011 EPS vs. peers at 14x. This may attract value investors, activist shareholders and potential takeover talk. Our target of US$18.00 is based on 5 times F2013 EPS of $3.58. REDUCE.

RIM's future earnings are going to be terrible. RIM is headed off a cliff. Sales domestically are going to be eye opening next quarter....in a very bad and sad way. No intellegent person can ignore the earning trends coming out of RIM, especially when measure against the growth in their industry. RIM is not keeping pace by a longgggg shot. Defections mount and delays are crippling the platform.

[hemertwv]

What security breaches exactly with RIM devices would you be talking about, because as I see it they are still the most secure by a long way?

[kb5zht]

Aye karumba.... Scathing report.

Unfortunately reflective of what is going on.

Devcon really could have been the turning point....And dumb and dumber just refuse to budge.

Rim expected to sell how many??? Geez, didnt it occur to them that you have to have a product worthy of high sales to make high sales? True that it has enough features to have made a few hundred thousand sales... however, to sell X number of playbooks, its only logical you have to have X number of people interested in what the product IS.... Unfortunately for rim, only about 200-250,000 people were willing to pay full prices for half-products.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[bb-bandit]

Aye karumba.... Scathing report.

Unfortunately reflective of what is going on.

Devcon really could have been the turning point....And dumb and dumber just refuse to budge.

Rim expected to sell how many??? Geez, didnt it occur to them that you have to have a product worthy of high sales to make high sales? True that it has enough features to have made a few hundred thousand sales... however, to sell X number of playbooks, its only logical you have to have X number of people interested in what the product IS.... Unfortunately for rim, only about 200-250,000 people were willing to pay full prices for half-products.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

First question that should've been asked at the brainstorming session for the PB, what does a consumer do with a product that has no eco-system to support it? No wonder the PB was a failure. And it gets worse when you go to retailers and they try to talk you out of buying the PB. Come on already.

[kb5zht]

First question that should've been asked at the brainstorming session for the PB, what does a consumer do with a product that has no eco-system to support it? No wonder the PB was a failure. And it gets worse when you go to retailers and they try to talk you out of buying the PB. Come on already.

I dont know so much about the question of ecosystem- you may be right.

But the potential this device did in fact have was never exploited. Or, rather, in a timely manner... example; say this device is complete this time next year... when the next tier of tablets is blowing it away. See the problem?

This device could have been a real winner. The hardware is top notch- i still say the best out there.... But the two fools at the helm just blatantly and arrogantly refused to crack the whip and get the firmware finished, or at least in a marketable condition. It is marketable at half the price it is now (close to the recent sales prices)... Not at a full $500 for the cheapest version.

Im sorry... but far more features could have been implemented by now. The article which is now verboten to speak of mentioned a bbm issue... okay, isnt the beauty of the microkernal OS that one part can be worked on and not affect another? How does that issue slow down the rest?

Answer: It honestly doesnt. .

The Playbook is not a failure. The two *ahem* gentlemen running the show are the failure.

Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com

[blackjack93117]

First question that should've been asked at the brainstorming session for the PB, what does a consumer do with a product that has no eco-system to support it? No wonder the PB was a failure. And it gets worse when you go to retailers and they try to talk you out of buying the PB. Come on already.

No. Storm was a failure. Get over it.

[papped]

It will be a very long while before RIM can evolve their ecosystem necessary to compete in the smartdevice world. The reason Apple is so successful is because 1) Their stuff is dead-simple to use and 2) Everything works in concert.

You don't have to duplicate someone else to have their success though. Android experience is all over the place and quite inconsistent. Cohesiveness is not a word you would describe the platform with, yet their market growth is very high.

[laterBB]

This thread started with the OP offering an analyst report, please read the following with that in mind.
Microsoft has been flat forever, they are looking to re-invent themselves. They may be able to leverage the "cloud" hype in order to do this.
The problem for purchasers - device cost is a small part of the equation, training and integration is where the real cost is. Big picture and the long view says it would be wise to attempt to adopt products and software from the same source and deploy across the entire enterprise.
Potential solution, give MS a second look. Every business uses something from MS already, most have a long established relationship. We are aware of the problems and we know that most will get resolved, more or less, eventually. Users are already familiar with MS products, methods and issues. Most users have invested heavily in their own training before becoming a productive and valuable asset to a business. If MS can present a new face to decision makers as they are contemplating their future IT requirements I believe there is some serious potential to become more than a niche player. I believe MS has been learning while we've been experimenting with all of this new technology. MS has been in the game for some time and have survived in spite of lacklustre performance for it's shareholders.
My small business jumped on the RIM bandwagon three years ago and have determined that it was a stop gap measure. We have been learning too, we know we will need to consolidate our IT requirements if we are going to deploy capital in a responsible manner. We have learned that the RIM security issue is not as relevant now as it once was. We have learned that logic must prevail when it comes to data flow, storage and management. A small amount of critical data must be contained in a remote location, not networked. This leaves us free to use the network to communicate all but the most critical data. We are no longer babies that have to be protected from hurting ourselves, we no longer need RIM.
The fiasco that has been played out in the last several months has made us realize that we need to take a step back and see if we can survive without RIM. I believe we can and we are seeking new ways to accomplish that goal, RIM is now considered a part of or our past and a fairly costly mistake.
We have invested heavily in RIM and will maintain our current products as best we can while we wait to see if MS can come up with a viable alternative. There is some potential for this to happen and we must consider this possibility as we are even more heavily invested in MS products and training. MS is already our "native" digital ecosystem and will remain so for the forseeable future. We don't care if RIM delivers on their promises, we are moving on. It looks like it's back to the future for us and it's a relief. We just want to do our work and conduct our enterprise responsibly, now, not at some point this summer, fall, winter ad nauseum.
I have been doing my own little un-scientific survey of associates, acquaintances, friends, suppliers, customers etc. regarding RIM. It is really quite un-acceptable that RIM has allowed themselves to falter to the point of being a joke subject. I cannot find one supporter in my circle of business contacts that considers RIM a viable part of their IT future. Current users of RIM products are actively seeking alternatives as they believe RIM has been left behind and RIM just "doesn't get it". There is even some bitterness as some people resent RIM getting away with behavior that would have the rest of us in trouble if we attempted similar conduct with our own customers, and rightly so.
How things have changed in a short time, I hope RIM is able to correct this soon and salvage something of their former glory. The consensus seems to be that RIM will always be around as a maker of devices that kids and the impoverished will use for BBM and low data consumption but that's about it. Sad that only three years ago my company was thrilled to become the proud owner of "enterprise grade" RIM products.
MS should not be a viable alternative in the "enterprise communication" space but they are. They haven't won that spot, RIM has asked them to take it as it is too hard too hold onto...
Just my 2 cent attempt at the application of logic to a difficult issue. Hopefully this was semi-articulate...