01-26-12 10:31 AM
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  1. dandbj13's Avatar
    A secondary question might be, are there any successful non-iPad tablets yet. For a question like this, I can only consider objective measures. This is not about whether the PB is the best tablet on the market; it is about success as measured by standard business metrics. How many need to be sold for it to be a success?

    Let's just pretend that the iPad numbers don't matter. I don't think many expected it to be selling 10-15M per quarter already. Let's assume that a competitor does not have to sell that many to be successful. How many do they have to sell? Is success measured in the hundreds of thousands per quarter, or millions per quarter? Is success merely a metric of profit rather than unit sales?

    So many have been fruitlessly debating the success of their favorite tablet without ever siting a single objective measure. I don't want another one of those discussions. We have reason to believe that RIM will be releasing a data plan PB. Rather than debate the merits of that decision, I just want to know how we will know if the product is successful. If RIM will not set trackable goals, we might as well.

    I'm going to say that RIM needs to sell a million per quarter for the product to be successful and sustainable. That is less than 10% of the people buying BB phones. This is not about being competitive with Apple. That is out of the question for everybody put together right now. This is just about success for this product for this company. By the way, I think with the right business plan, 1M per quarter is possible. I don't count business models that sell at a loss.

    Thoughts?
    01-24-12 07:27 PM
  2. anindoc's Avatar
    For me I am least concerned about how many of PB's RIM sells in a quarter. I believe numbers are best left for the tech gurus and corporate stallwarts to debate upon and draw conclusions upon how that pertains to the success of tablet or the PB.

    For me, the PB has served its purpose and done more than I ever expected from a tablet. As long as it makes my day easier, my work efficient, and my downtime more enjoyable I have no complains at all

    10 million a quarter or 1, at the end of the day a happy customer is a satisfied customer, and I believe RIM has delivered well in those regards when it comes to the PB.
    01-24-12 07:53 PM
  3. dandbj13's Avatar
    In other words, you don't want to discuss objective measures of success and would rather change the subject. Got it. Why did you post in this thread?
    bbfan1040 and nasa25 like this.
    01-24-12 08:55 PM
  4. oldtimeBBaddict's Avatar
    Since most people define success in monetary terms, I would measure the success or lack thereof by net profit per unit. Is RIM clearing any profit per unit at the current pricepoint?
    I honestly don't know whether or not RIM is making money on each unit. I seriously doubt that RIM has recovered R&D, marketing (if there was any) and other start up costs. All in all, I would say at this point, using the metric I suggested, PB is not currently a success.
    bbfan1040 likes this.
    01-24-12 09:10 PM
  5. albee 1's Avatar
    I believe they are off to a great start. The first step in trying to turn something huge around is to get as many of your products in question into the hands of consumers, even at a loss at this stage. From there you are not taking a gamble if you truly have a solid product and intend on manufacturing them long enough to see a return. Eventually there will be a payday. They are investing now to secure their future success. Gawd sorry to sound like an insurance commercial, but this is how I see it.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    bbfan1040 likes this.
    01-24-12 09:36 PM
  6. dandbj13's Avatar
    albee, I just want to understand your answer. Are you saying that with the upcoming PB, we should not expect to see anything that looks like an objective measure of business success?
    01-25-12 08:40 AM
  7. kbz1960's Avatar
    How do you define success for anything?
    01-25-12 09:17 AM
  8. anindoc's Avatar
    In other words, you don't want to discuss objective measures of success and would rather change the subject. Got it. Why did you post in this thread?
    I did not know that I had to get your permission to post in this thread.....

    Its not changing the subject, its putting my perspective on the issue.

    You don't have to agree to what I post, but don't question me as to why I posted or not. This is an open forum and I have an equal right as you to post where I like and want.

    You have a nice day Sir !
    alnamvet68 and peter9477 like this.
    01-25-12 09:30 AM
  9. 123berryaddicted's Avatar
    How do you define success for anything?
    So far playbook has not succeeded. Neither did the first samsung tablet... But look how much better their second offering was (galaxy tab 10.1) I suspect that the next playbook will be simply amazing.
    01-25-12 09:30 AM
  10. marksasongko's Avatar
    err, samsung galaxy tab 10.1 was not that good either, many of my friends got a smudge on its screen, a well known defect..

    imho, the only samsung worth buying is the galaxy note if only for its stylus implementation. Man, I wish RIM would create a tablet with stylus, phone, bbm+email capabilities, I believe it will be legendary...

    Sent from my BlackBerry Runtime for Android Apps using Tapatalk
    01-25-12 09:36 AM
  11. 123berryaddicted's Avatar
    I did not know that I had to get your permission to post in this thread.....

    Its not changing the subject, its putting my perspective on the issue.

    You don't have to agree to what I post, but don't question me as to why I posted or not. This is an open forum and I have an equal right as you to post where I like and want.

    You have a nice day Sir !
    Don't worry bout it dude (or dudette), these types of replies lurk in every thread it seems... The 99% of us understood your intent just fine, and don't mind having a good conversation about the chosen topic.
    anindoc likes this.
    01-25-12 09:40 AM
  12. Economist101's Avatar
    So far playbook has not succeeded. Neither did the first samsung tablet... But look how much better their second offering was (galaxy tab 10.1) I suspect that the next playbook will be simply amazing.
    Yes, I'm sure Samsung's refusal to release sales figures for the Galaxy Tab means it's doing well.
    01-25-12 09:44 AM
  13. FF22's Avatar
    Yes, I'm sure Samsung's refusal to release sales figures for the Galaxy Tab means it's doing well.
    They are not running for President are they?
    01-25-12 10:07 AM
  14. PineappleUnderTheSea's Avatar
    Once OS2 comes out, I'd say that it will initially needs to sell in similar volumes to the Kindle Fire in order to register in people's minds. It's unfortunate that OS2 will be released in February, not really a holiday period when people want to spend their money, but if this thing doesn't fly off the shelves once OS2 ships out, then there will be serious trouble in paradise. RIM only has 1 month to start marketing the new OS and the tablet, I don't know what they are waiting for in order to build up some buzz.

    If it does sell in large quantities upon release, then 1 Million units per quarter would probably please RIM.
    01-25-12 10:12 AM
  15. Economist101's Avatar
    They are not running for President are they?
    In that case it would be "we'll only release our sales figures after you buy our stock. Wait what? The Tab is slipping? Release now! We must score big in Florida!"
    01-25-12 10:13 AM
  16. si_chindo's Avatar
    success for playbook is a great bb10 that everyone loves including all the hater media.
    01-25-12 10:15 AM
  17. dbwoo's Avatar
    So base on the OP's 1 million per quarter estimate, if rims makes an avg profit of $100 on playbook, accessories and apps download then it translate to $400 million per year.
    A very small number for the marketing and R&D for the next playbook and OS.
    I think they need to at least double that number to be successful.

    my 0.02
    01-25-12 10:27 AM
  18. 123berryaddicted's Avatar
    So base on the OP's 1 million per quarter estimate, if rims makes an avg profit of $100 on playbook, accessories and apps download then it translate to $400 million per year.
    A very small number for the marketing and R&D for the next playbook and OS.
    I think they need to at least double that number to be successful.

    my 0.02
    Keeping in mind that 90% of the R&D for the playbook is/has been actually R&D for the BB10, so this cost will be HUGEly offset by profit from 2012 bb10 handsets.

    Together we equal 0.04
    01-25-12 11:03 AM
  19. VerryBestr's Avatar
    At this point, I would define two levels of success for the PlayBook.

    1) A first level of success if the PlayBook can capture 40% to 50% of the tablet market in large enterprises by a couple of years from now, even if the PlayBook were sold at or somewhat below hardware production cost. In my opinion, the PlayBook is a strategic product for RIM. At that level of penetration, RIM would have succeeded at "blocking" the iPad from sweeping the tablet market in large enterprises, thus protecting part of RIM's most important market. This is worth PlayBook sales at or slightly below cost. This much penetration would also mean that RIM will have succeeded in repairing/maintaining its reputation with a sizeable fraction of large enterprise CIOs.

    2) A second level of success if the PlayBook can achieve a position similar to that of the Macintosh in the PC market, for somewhat profitable PlayBook sales (even if the profit margin is below that of RIM's phones). For years, Macs bumped along at roughly 5% of the US PC market (and much less than 5% worldwide). However, Macs had a dedicated following (including myself), "enough" application developers, and high penetration in a few niches: desktop publication, image pros, education. So in my book, the PlayBook would be a success if it could grab 5% of the general tablet market in the US, with enough app development to maintain that position, and perhaps with higher penetration in certain niches.

    I think that both of these success levels are possible, but certainly not given.
    Last edited by VerryBestr; 01-25-12 at 01:32 PM.
    01-25-12 01:30 PM
  20. BBplaybookJS's Avatar
    For me being a success means being able to do things more efficiently and conveniently than I could before. Right now,exactly as it is (even before the implementation of OS2) It has been an enormous success. I'm not naive enough to think how the Playbook is perceived and accepted by the public has no impact on it's future development. But atthis momentthere is simply no other device that can offer me the same experience.
    01-25-12 01:37 PM
  21. omniusovermind's Avatar
    I don't remember the figures and I'm too lazy to look but IIRC the only device to capture enough consumer attention to make people notice was the pseudo tablet Kindle Fire. And let's be honest. That was only because it was cheap at a time where no others had a $200 device. If RIM can overcome the uneducated or biased media trolls the PB will do better because QNX is better than the other OS's currently available.

    Sent from my Atrix using Tapatalk
    01-25-12 07:32 PM
  22. blue-b's Avatar
    I love my playbook, but to be a success in traditional standards, we'll need to see the sale of units going up for several quarters, without having to sell the tablet at a loss. I don't personally think they have to even do Kindle numbers short term, they just have to show some positive momentum.

    The other measure that is very subjective, is that I wouldn't have to tell my friends what a playbook is, why it is great, and get asked by a bb employee, "are you sure you want to buy that?"
    01-25-12 07:40 PM
  23. kennyliu's Avatar
    I think people are confusing the Playbook's value/utility to them and the Playbook's success. Even if you believe that the Playbook has successfully met your needs that doesn't mean the Playbook as a product (or a project) is/has been successful. In the business world, something is successful only if it maximizes the intrinsic value of the company’s equity, or in other words increases the value/price of a stock (not sales, not number of apps, not the fact that the OS is great and solid, not media perception, etc).
    01-25-12 08:31 PM
  24. FF22's Avatar
    If it is still being sold on Dec 31, 2012.
    hubermania likes this.
    01-25-12 09:22 PM
  25. albee 1's Avatar
    albee, I just want to understand your answer. Are you saying that with the upcoming PB, we should not expect to see anything that looks like an objective measure of business success?
    I don't think we should expect a fast turnaround. Rim is battling elements they could not even concieve let alone forsee 10 years ago. But the best way to battle politics, lies and rumor is to make sure a quality product is in as many hands as possible. People now have the ability to see and touch Playbooks in the wild. Consumers are being exposed and educated by friends colleagues and relatives. The most common reactuion from my friends and coworkers is, "I never knew Blackberry made a tablet". Not only have they been unaware of the bad press, they never even knew they existed. It will take more than a business quarter or even a year to turn things around, but I believe they are finally righting the ship. If you really want to see how a company conquers the world read up on the fire arms company named Glock. I swear Rim is using them as a model. Just my opinion.

    Posted from my CrackBerry at wapforums.crackberry.com
    01-25-12 09:28 PM
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