[Qurve]

With Passport premiere looming up I wonder what it would take to call it a success?...
We are already reading that it'll be a niche phone, for the serious businessman, not for youngsters etc...And given that it'll be out probably together with the Classic I wonder who the target audience is as well? I don't see Q users going head over heels for the Classic just because of the (redundant imo) tool belt, so maybe they are the main suspected converts? I wonder what will be a success for the Passport in terms of absolute numbers of units sold as well?

I love the Passport more and more by the day!
It's the odd man out, the ultimate accessory, it's like a Mini or a Swatch!...

[vegetto_456]

I do think this phone was planned carefully taking into consideration input from valuable enterprise customers. Hence why only enterprise reps were allowed to see them under NDA at the experience events.

With a unique device such as this, I do think it's challenging to decide what exactly would constitute a success?

It most likely won't be selling in iPhone numbers, but if the enterprise market picks it up and switches firms to bes 10, that would be considered a success in my humble opinion. Mass volume orders from business and private firms would see some much needed cash infusion.

Posted via my Z30

[Qurve]

Guess the cost side is also important for BlackBerry - is the Passport also going to be made by Foxconn by the way?

BlaQberry10

[stealthbob]

It all comes down to costing...

I am torn on this issue, it should be priced to protect its brand value. Once you place a discount on your brand you can never get back the premium perception.

That being said BB is not in any position to over price just to add perceived value.

[early2bed]

I think actually launching will be a success. Without any announced carrier support it isn't a given that that a device will be released. Since they have already announced a launch event in London then it's likely that there is at least one of the UK carriers on board. Remember the Pre 3? It was actually announced and then released in the UK and nowhere else. One has to wonder if any of the US carriers will want to get on board with this device.

[itsyaboy]

This is a very interesting question. BlackBerry, by way of John Chen, has already said it doesn't need the same amount of sold phones like Apple or Samsung (at the moment, it's also very unlikely this will happen), so the next question is: what is enough of the Passport?

I agree with stealthbob, it also depends on pricing. At the moment, I believe it's not certain whether Foxconn produced this phone or not. I haven't seen a firm confirmation or denial either way.

Didn't Chen say a sale of 10 million phones annually are enough to turn a profit? It's so hard to make a guess!

[BlackberryFan777]

They should sell 15,000,000 units of the Passport, but I'd be happy enough with 5,000,000 sold. I'm not really that concerned with profit from sales as much as I am with getting Passports in people's hands and gaining marketshare. I still think that BlackBerry could both (a) catch and surpass Windows Phone in the race for 3rd and (b) establish strong leadership in the productivity leadership niche. But, in order to do so, it needs a couple of hero devices that probably won't make the company a lot of money because they'll be expensive to make, but priced within the ordinary limits of hero devices in mobile.

Just in case you were wondering if you read that correctly, I actually do *not* think BlackBerry should try to make a profit on hardware for the next couple of years; I think Thorstein and Mike L realized this and that was a big push to go private. Trying to show Wall Street relatively high margins on BlackBerry 10 devices was a significant problem with the platform relaunch. We needed to gain marketshare in order to compete for 3rd more than we needed extra profit per device. I'd like a real effort to produce devices that are differentiated from iOS/Android in ways that matter to BB's niche productivity market, but *also* have very competitive hardware specs that make just about anyone drool. I'm hoping that the Passport is the first attempt at just such a device.

[tomsobon]

I own a Q10, and I'm a suspected convert!

Posted via CB10

[Qurve]

They should sell 15,000,000 units of the Passport, but I'd be happy enough with 5,000,000 sold. I'm not really that concerned with profit from sales as much as I am with getting Passports in people's hands and gaining marketshare. I still think that BlackBerry could both (a) catch and surpass Windows Phone in the race for 3rd and (b) establish strong leadership in the productivity leadership niche. But, in order to do so, it needs a couple of hero devices that probably won't make the company a lot of money because they'll be expensive to make, but priced within the ordinary limits of hero devices in mobile.

Just in case you were wondering if you read that correctly, I actually do *not* think BlackBerry should try to make a profit on hardware for the next couple of years; I think Thorstein and Mike L realized this and that was a big push to go private. Trying to show Wall Street relatively high margins on BlackBerry 10 devices was a significant problem with the platform relaunch. We needed to gain marketshare in order to compete for 3rd more than we needed extra profit per device. I'd like a real effort to produce devices that are differentiated from iOS/Android in ways that matter to BB's niche productivity market, but *also* have very competitive hardware specs that make just about anyone drool. I'm hoping that the Passport is the first attempt at just such a device.

I agree.
Actually I don't expect the Passport to be priced cheaply, yet if it's by Foxconn it'll be definitely more competitive.

So if marketshare is key for BlackBerry now then it seems it's Z3 for emerging markets and Passport/Classic for the Western markets where also the bulk of enterprise clients are. Which means then it's unlikely to see a Z3 launch outside Asia any time soon, I guess?...

BlaQberry10

[Banco]

Since they have already announced a launch event in London then it's likely that there is at least one of the UK carriers on board.

Vodafone I suspect. They still feature BlackBerry quite heavily in comparison to most.


Posted via CB10

[lnichols]

Both the Passport and the Classic must win back many lost previous BBOS users and get current remaining BBOS users to convert. If they do neither then the devices are failures and BlackBerry will have wasted more time trying to cater to a quickly shrinking market segment. Combined sales of less than 20 Million in a year is a failure IMHO, and that number should be higher, but the brand is in such miserable shape 20 Million would be a good start.

Posted with a BlackBerry Z10

[Qurve]

Both the Passport and the Classic must win back many lost previous BBOS users and get current remaining BBOS users to convert. If they do neither then the devices are failures and BlackBerry will have wasted more time trying to cater to a quickly shrinking market segment. Combined sales of less than 20 Million in a year is a failure IMHO, and that number should be higher, but the brand is in such miserable shape 20 Million would be a good start.

Posted with a BlackBerry Z10

The prodigal BBOS sons!... let's hope they (their employers) will see the light!

BlaQberry10

[tchocky77]

BlackBerry can call it a success if they make any money at all and don't write down inventory.

That's the bar blackberry has set for themselves.

[Thunderbuck]

I agree.
Actually I don't expect the Passport to be priced cheaply, yet if it's by Foxconn it'll be definitely more competitive.

So if marketshare is key for BlackBerry now then it seems it's Z3 for emerging markets and Passport/Classic for the Western markets where also the bulk of enterprise clients are. Which means then it's unlikely to see a Z3 launch outside Asia any time soon, I guess?...

BlaQberry10

My understanding is that Foxconn is NOT building this device; it's BB's existing contract manufacturers.

And my understanding is that we are supposed to be seeing an LTE Z3 in North America this fall.

As for the OP, if I had to guess I'd say 500k units by the end of the year would be a very welcome number. Fingers crossed.

[BrizzadMan]

As long as it contributes to the 2.5 million devices per quarter to achieve profits ...

Posted via CB10

[BroncoVAL]

As long as it contributes to the 2.5 million devices per quarter to achieve profits ...

Posted via CB10

Down to the numbers and charts yes you are right.
But i would take in consideration also the blogs' success if by any chance some of the apple fans (usually prone to laugh at anything coming from Blackberry since they lost the market they invented) were to write something positive about the Passport like John Gruber already did (even if reluctantly and not without feeling obliged to add the usual "too late" verdict).
Blackberry should make a dent in Business market with the Passport, but i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of people (not Prosumers only) giving it a try, as a smart keyboard sounds like something we always were waiting for -just like Apple in his best could be the first to present on the market something that seemed so obvious that we wondered why nobody ever done it before...
The smart keyboard is one of those things, and they should adapt it to the desktops too: once you try a predictive keyboard anything else seems quite dumb and boring.

[BrizzadMan]

Down to the numbers and charts yes you are right.
But i would take in consideration also the blogs' success if by any chance some of the apple fans (usually prone to laugh at anything coming from Blackberry since they lost the market they invented) were to write something positive about the Passport like John Gruber already did (even if reluctantly and not without feeling obliged to add the usual "too late" verdict).
Blackberry should make a dent in Business market with the Passport, but i wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of people (not Prosumers only) giving it a try, as a smart keyboard sounds like something we always were waiting for -just like Apple in his best could be the first to present on the market something that seemed so obvious that we wondered why nobody ever done it before...
The smart keyboard is one of those things, and they should adapt it to the desktops too: once you try a predictive keyboard anything else seems quite dumb and boring.

Good call. To stop bleeding money would be a success as of late for BlackBerry.

If a device such as the Passport, or a service is able to receive overwhelming positive press in combination with some good sales, it would sure be welcomed.

I believe the Passport has more potential to break through in that regard, than all previous BB10 phones... despite some being really quite good.

Posted via CB10

[--TommesJay--]

Both the Passport and the Classic must win back many lost previous BBOS users and get current remaining BBOS users to convert. If they do neither then the devices are failures and BlackBerry will have wasted more time trying to cater to a quickly shrinking market segment. Combined sales of less than 20 Million in a year is a failure IMHO, and that number should be higher, but the brand is in such miserable shape 20 Million would be a good start.

Posted with a BlackBerry Z10

Good then that nobody cares about what you think would be a failure and what not. Their first goal will be profitability, which breaks even at 10M devices a year Chen said. That'd be an important milestone for BlackBerry and a position from where to build back up.

[itsyaboy]

Both the Passport and the Classic must win back many lost previous BBOS users and get current remaining BBOS users to convert. If they do neither then the devices are failures and BlackBerry will have wasted more time trying to cater to a quickly shrinking market segment. Combined sales of less than 20 Million in a year is a failure IMHO, and that number should be higher, but the brand is in such miserable shape 20 Million would be a good start.

Posted with a BlackBerry Z10

While I definitely agree that the Classic, and to a lesser extent the Passport should win over all BBOS users (including previous users), 20 million is so out of reach... I think it would be a miracle if one of those devices sold 1/10th of that amount!

[Thunderbuck]

While I definitely agree that the Classic, and to a lesser extent the Passport should win over all BBOS users (including previous users), 20 million is so out of reach... I think it would be a miracle if one of those devices sold 1/10th of that amount!

I'd like to see 15 million devices sold in calendar 2015. Out of that, I see 2 mil being Passports, maybe a little less.

All sp�culation of course...

Posted from CB10 running on my awesome Z30 2B6927F7

[gg bb]

Not "Passport Success" but "Passport 2 Success"
That will be the follow up model not the "Passport 2" the "Passport 2 Success"
Its a while off yes don't worry about it yet.

[miguel89to]

I actually think they can sell about 3 million Passwords and 4 million Classics... I do not know why but I feel these are going to be the numbers for those 2 phones in 2-3 months...
Maybe 2-3 million Z3s and maybe 1.5 million z10 and 700,000 Q10.

It's just a hunch based on the fire sales of the Z10, the usual Q10 business orders, the momentum and hype of the Password, the resemblance of previous phones for the Classic and the availability of the Z3.

That's around 10 million already... in 1 quarter. Pretty much after, sales will be just momentum and word of mouth with some marketing. Which by the way, I have SO many ideas for commercials...wonder where I can voice then so they can be heard by the proper person

Fat Mexican with a Z10 in CB10

[itsyaboy]

I actually think they can sell about 3 million Passwords and 4 million Classics... I do not know why but I feel these are going to be the numbers for those 2 phones in 2-3 months...
Maybe 2-3 million Z3s and maybe 1.5 million z10 and 700,000 Q10.

It's just a hunch based on the fire sales of the Z10, the usual Q10 business orders, the momentum and hype of the Password, the resemblance of previous phones for the Classic and the availability of the Z3.

That's around 10 million already... in 1 quarter. Pretty much after, sales will be just momentum and word of mouth with some marketing. Which by the way, I have SO many ideas for commercials...wonder where I can voice then so they can be heard by the proper person

Fat Mexican with a Z10 in CB10

I was in agreement with your statement of 3 million Passports and 4 million Classics until I saw that you meant within 2 - 3 months. I think those numbers are alright, when considering the amount of sales in one year!!!

Also, I don't understand why you'd base your hunch on the Z10 firesale. That thing flopped and that's why there was a firesale..

[Skeevecr]

I actually think they can sell about 3 million Passwords and 4 million Classics...

I would suspect that their expectations for the passport are lower than that and a fair bit higher for the Classic, it is going to be a cheaper device than the passport and more suited to volume sales.

[miguel89to]

I would suspect that their expectations for the passport are lower than that and a fair bit higher for the Classic, it is going to be a cheaper device than the passport and more suited to volume sales.

Hmm didn't know that... good to hear at least it's going to be around 6-7 mill still haha

Fat Mexican with a Z10 in CB10