11-19-14 04:43 AM
193 ... 5678
tools
  1. dejanh's Avatar
    I honestly don't believe your stock check method is right guys. The number is going up and down all the time. They're not getting shipments and stock in every hour.

    Posted via CB10
    11-07-14 02:47 PM
  2. no expert's Avatar
    Still working for me, 4329 available at the time of this post. Not sure why the number is higher than reported above.

    And just for fun, had a quick online chat with AT&T to see if the rep knew anything about availability. Got the standard answer of they don't know and I should sign up for alerts (like I haven't already) and/or keep checking their website (like I don't), even after I said I was looking at buying off-contract.
    11-07-14 03:02 PM
  3. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    Let me understand this, JC said 200K units sold in few hours on launch day and now based on the available numbers at ShopBB it is taking days to sell few hundreds..something is not right. My take is that Chen(as his predecessors did) exaggerated the numbers of units sold at launch.
    Thank you!

    I think the inconsistency you notice springs from the fact that several Crackberry members have misinterpreted John Chen's statement about the 200,000 initial orders.

    Given the actual sales pace, it seems even more clear to me that these initial orders were not sales to end users, but were only the number of orders that were ordered by various mobile carriers, Amazon.com, shop.blackberry.com, and whomever else. Those various sales channels are the ones selling to end users. End user sales are always going to be less than orders filled by the OEM, so I believe that the true number of end user sales are unknown, but are likely less than the 200,000 figure being thrown around. Ultimately, I think the Passport's sold-out conditions were engineered (just like early Nokia Lumias were) to generate hype. Forced to bet, I'd say that the Passport is not selling well given the global scale of BlackBerry and the expanding smartphone market in general.

    So, I'd say that these 200,000 orders were just like the "million Z10 orders" that Thorsten Heins reported soon after the Z10's launch. There, we soon learned that Hein's million orders were not to end user customers, but rather to middleman companies, leading to widespread overstock conditions.

    I agree with Raino that there was pent-up demand, which demand we saw slurp up the Passports received by the initial, deliberately under-supplied channels, but that demand seems to be already largely exhausted.

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    allmotorsi likes this.
    11-07-14 03:05 PM
  4. cespinal's Avatar
    Uhh...what?

    So 200k (instead of "many" or "lots") is not specific enough for you? And you do understand the concepts of "pent-up demand," right? And that most products sell the most initially, and demand falls off over time? Or are you going to come back two years later and say "aha! BB sold just 1 Passport today, I knew John Chen was lying when he said they sold 200k at launch!"
    Lol Bravo.

    Posted via CB10
    11-07-14 03:14 PM
  5. cbvinh's Avatar
    I honestly don't believe your stock check method is right guys. The number is going up and down all the time. They're not getting shipments and stock in every hour.
    I guess it depends on how their inventory system works. If you select to buy one, when does it remove it from the inventory? When the item is placed in the cart(?), which guarantees the buyer plenty of time to complete the transaction? Or only when the transaction is complete(?), which may generate an out-of-stock after the entering of the shipping and billing info, frustrating buyers? If an item is placed into the cart, when does it get released back into inventory if the buyer doesn't complete the transaction? All these factors may cause the inventory to fluctuate up and down.
    bigbbrybeliever likes this.
    11-07-14 03:20 PM
  6. dejanh's Avatar
    Thank you!

    I think the inconsistency you notice springs from the fact that several Crackberry members have misinterpreted John Chen's statement about the 200,000 initial orders.

    Given the actual sales pace, it seems even more clear to me that these initial orders were not sales to end users, but were only the number of orders that were ordered by various mobile carriers, Amazon.com, shop.blackberry.com, and whomever else. Those various sales channels are the ones selling to end users. End user sales are always going to be less than orders filled by the OEM, so I believe that the true number of end user sales are unknown, but are likely less than the 200,000 figure being thrown around. Ultimately, I think the Passport's sold-out conditions were engineered (just like early Nokia Lumias were) to generate hype. Forced to bet, I'd say that the Passport is not selling well given the global scale of BlackBerry and the expanding smartphone market in general.

    So, I'd say that these 200,000 orders were just like the "million Z10 orders" that Thorsten Heins reported soon after the Z10's launch. There, we soon learned that Hein's million orders were not to end user customers, but rather to middleman companies, leading to widespread overstock conditions.

    I agree with Raino that there was pent-up demand, which demand we saw slurp up the Passports received by the initial, deliberately under-supplied channels, but that demand seems to be already largely exhausted.

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    BlackBerry no longer reports any sales that haven't reached the end user. Therefore, if Chen claimed 200K were sold, then 200K were sold through to the end user.

    Posted via CB10
    bigbbrybeliever likes this.
    11-07-14 03:49 PM
  7. raino's Avatar
    Given the actual sales pace, it seems even more clear to me that these initial orders were not sales to end users, but were only the number of orders that were ordered by various mobile carriers, Amazon.com, shop.blackberry.com, and whomever else.
    In addition to what's been pointed out above--that BB only reports devices sold to the end user--the 200k number was specifically for sales through Amazon US and ShopBB--not a global aggregate through all sales channels: Over 200,000 BlackBerry Passports sold through Amazon and Shop BlackBerry | CrackBerry.com
    11-07-14 04:02 PM
  8. kwakster928's Avatar
    Is this time for BlackBerry to refocus their strategy? I wonder how much demand for a product a word of mouth can generate.
    I know their sales target for the product will be the fraction to the iphone or the other mass marketed phones.

    In the US, I don't know how much of demand without some form os advertising campaign and carrier support. I have yet to see another person carrying a passport.

    AT&T carrier deal cannot come soon enough.

    Posted via CB10
    11-07-14 04:02 PM
  9. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    As of 3:00 PM CST, there are 4323 Passports available, making for a sales rate of 7 or so per hour.

    Time will definitely tell re: Passport sales, but could you guys please post a link with the policy that only end user sales are reported? Chen's statement on the earnings call where he made the 200,000 announcement sounds like you have the wrong idea. Here's Chen in his own words:

    "But on the Passport, as I pointed out, we have--we entered launch day with 200,000 units already ordered. We received PO for those. And the first day, it sold out in many, many places, because literally, the real big shipment to everybody who sign up for distribution is actually seven days after that day, the next Wednesday I suppose. So we have a limited quantity supply, but it sold out very quickly."

    http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...erry-john-chen

    In the comments section, the Guardian tech staff responded to claims like yours that the 200,000 referred to Amazon and BlackBerry sales. The Guardian staff corrected the reader's misunderstanding by explaining that the "PO" stood for "pre-orders," and that since Passport didn't go on sale on Amazon's or BlackBerry's site prior to launch, the 200,000 figure could not have been where those orders came from.

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    11-07-14 04:42 PM
  10. raino's Avatar
    So if they had 200,000 pre-orders (from whatever source...that CB did not report was taking pre-orders,) that would mean they've sold way more when you add in the Amazon+ShopBB first run buys, and subsequent purchase order fulfillment.

    Either way, I'll take it.
    bigbbrybeliever likes this.
    11-07-14 05:19 PM
  11. eyesopen1111's Avatar
    So if they had 200,000 pre-orders (from whatever source...that CB did not report was taking pre-orders,) that would mean they've sold way more when you add in the Amazon+ShopBB first run buys, and subsequent purchase order fulfillment.

    Either way, I'll take it.
    LOL. Uhm, no.

    Since there were no sales to end users prior to launch, this means that all of the 200,000 pre-orders referenced by Chen included the devices initially sent to the various sales channels, like the mobile carriers, Amazon.com, shop.blackberry.com, and the rest. We know this because Chen most certainly was NOT referring to end user sales, which had not yet begun.

    Consequently, all of those 200,000 pre-ordered Passports had to then be sold to end users by those various sales channels. We all know this because these sales channels are the only way people on Crackberry (or anywhere else) have gotten Passports.

    So, the real question is what fraction of the 200,000 pre-orders are now in the hands of end users vs how many are still sitting in inventory somewhere. That's why, given the current low sales rate seen at shop.blackberry.com, I think that we may have nothing near 200,000 end user purchases of BlackBerry Passport yet.

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    11-07-14 05:53 PM
  12. kyoiskyo's Avatar
    So if they had 200,000 pre-orders (from whatever source...that CB did not report was taking pre-orders,) that would mean they've sold way more when you add in the Amazon+ShopBB first run buys, and subsequent purchase order fulfillment.

    Either way, I'll take it.
    Even if it is true that they sold 200K I do not understand how anyone here can be excited at that small amount considering the total sales of smartphone worldwide. Last year 968 millions smartphone were sold.
    Gartner Says Annual Smartphone Sales Surpassed Sales of Feature Phones for the First Time in 2013
    11-07-14 06:07 PM
  13. raino's Avatar
    ?Unprecedented? BlackBerry Passport Number 1 on Amazon within Hours | Inside BlackBerry

    As John Chen mentioned on our recent earnings call, there have been over 200,000 orders for BlackBerry Passport since launch.
    Orders. Not pre-orders, because that is not how BB defines orders. And lest this become an issue of semantics, yes, BB actually sold those 200k phones: BlackBerry Sells 200,000 Passport Phones - Bloomberg
    sharma6 and hpjrt like this.
    11-07-14 06:32 PM
  14. raino's Avatar
    Even if it is true that they sold 200K I do not understand how anyone here can be excited at that small amount considering the total sales of smartphone worldwide. Last year 968 millions smartphone were sold.
    Gartner Says Annual Smartphone Sales Surpassed Sales of Feature Phones for the First Time in 2013
    ...Again, this phone is not supposed to be the iPhone-killer (in terms of sales,) nor is BB looking to become the #1 OEM right now...
    bakron1 and hpjrt like this.
    11-07-14 06:34 PM
  15. bakron1's Avatar
    Didn't I read somewhere that Mr Chen said if they sold 200,000 units, they would be in the black?

    Are the online sales geared more towards the consumer? Now you add in the enterprise side and I think we have a winner with the passport.
    hpjrt likes this.
    11-07-14 06:58 PM
  16. webber27's Avatar
    LOL. Uhm, no.

    Since there were no sales to end users prior to launch, this means that all of the 200,000 pre-orders referenced by Chen included the devices initially sent to the various sales channels, like the mobile carriers, Amazon.com, shop.blackberry.com, and the rest. We know this because Chen most certainly was NOT referring to end user sales, which had not yet begun.

    Consequently, all of those 200,000 pre-ordered Passports had to then be sold to end users by those various sales channels. We all know this because these sales channels are the only way people on Crackberry (or anywhere else) have gotten Passports.

    So, the real question is what fraction of the 200,000 pre-orders are now in the hands of end users vs how many are still sitting in inventory somewhere. That's why, given the current low sales rate seen at shop.blackberry.com, I think that we may have nothing near 200,000 end user purchases of BlackBerry Passport yet.

    Z-30 / STA100-5 / 10.3.0.1418 / T-Mobile USA
    Even if that's true and the 200k was pre-orders to shopBB and Amazon, both stores were sold out within a couple days. So it's the same thing, isn't it?

    Posted via CB10
    11-07-14 07:49 PM
  17. kwakster928's Avatar
    Even if that's true and the 200k was pre-orders to shopBB and Amazon, both stores were sold out within a couple days. So it's the same thing, isn't it?

    Posted via CB10
    Well........ not necessarily. How would we possibly know how many were allocated then sold? How about returned units? If you guys recall the times when the passports were in short supply, we were looking at maybe 200 to 500 at a time and there could be a week before we see anything in stock.

    Now that they have filled the all the initial pent up demand orders, it is not selling at a pace that we are used to. This maybe because of combination of factors.

    It maybe that :
    1. Passport is selling out at the same rate of restock.
    2. The demand has seen a sharp decline, and cannot sell the anticipated sales inventory at the expected rate.
    3. The demand has died out and they are not selling at all.

    If you guys think about it, the number of converters will be relatively small. The initial demand was created by us (crackberries) who followed the product from the initial day of Windmere speculation. And, all of us, for the most, we bought it already.

    Do we represent the 200000? Maybe...

    But we need to convince hell of a lot of people to make this product successful and make BlackBerry relevant again.

    Maybe at the investor event, they will shed some light on the true sales figures of the passport.

    But like I said may times before, without any serious marketing, and advertising campaign, we cannot expect a huge sales number.

    Personally, I hope they sold a boat load in the EU, Asia and Canada. Us stinking Americans are too entrenched in the Apple marketing ploy.

    Posted via CB10
    eyesopen1111 likes this.
    11-07-14 08:00 PM
  18. nbaliga's Avatar
    Unlike other CEO's, Chen is a very conservative guy. He under-promises and over-delivers!

    If he says 200K, trust him, it's at least that many!

    Posted via CB10
    BACK-2-BLACK likes this.
    11-07-14 08:48 PM
  19. raino's Avatar
    Didn't I read somewhere that Mr Chen said if they sold 200,000 units, they would be in the black?
    I think he said each unit sold would be profitable, and that 250k (or was it 240?) is what they were expecting through end of this year.
    11-07-14 09:06 PM
  20. dejanh's Avatar
    To those disputing how BlackBerry is reporting numbers, please look at the last two quarters of earnings reports and also look up the definitions of sell-through and sell-in numbers. Sell through numbers are a reflection of how many devices sold through to the end user. Sell in numbers are a measure of how many devices were sold into a channel. BlackBerry started reporting sell through numbers because they are a better reflection of the true sales, vs. commitments to purchase by various channels that may or may not materialize. There is no impetus for Chen to single handedly change this as it does not benefit the organization. I'm pretty confident that the figures that were reported were sales through to end users. Keep in mind though, end users does not mean consumers. End users could be businesses, who will distribute devices to their staff.

    Posted via CB10
    raino likes this.
    11-07-14 09:58 PM
  21. JottyT's Avatar
    Great to see the product doing well. I can only imagine how the classic will do.

    Posted via CB10
    11-07-14 11:35 PM
  22. Coffee Addict's Avatar
    Update on Amazon. I ordered my wife one yesterday. Should be here any minute. I decided to try and order myself one right now and every time I add it to the cart it says they are out of stock (even though the main page says they are not). I was trying to avoid ShopBlackberry b/c I know they take time to ship and Amazon is super quick.
    I think Amazon is limiting only 2 devices for each account.

    Posted via CB10
    11-08-14 01:00 AM
  23. kyle636's Avatar
    How long does it take if you order a passport now for shipping in Canada if you purchased one today?
    11-08-14 02:56 AM
  24. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    Guessing two days.. which was how long mine took...

    Posted via CB10
    11-08-14 03:28 AM
  25. kyle636's Avatar
    Did you have to pay shipping duties and such?
    11-09-14 12:27 AM
193 ... 5678

Similar Threads

  1. BlackBerry Slider
    By 1REDRUM in forum Rumored Devices
    Replies: 70
    Last Post: 01-06-15, 09:53 AM
  2. Tech Journalist Breaks Up with Apple Over BlackBerry Passport
    By KevinInCanada in forum BlackBerry Passport
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-04-14, 06:11 PM
  3. Passport Available Now at ShopBlackBerry.com
    By funkymixx in forum BlackBerry Passport
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-04-14, 05:47 PM
  4. BBM update on my Passport
    By Jane23 in forum Ask a Question
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 11-04-14, 04:42 PM
  5. Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-04-14, 04:25 PM
LINK TO POST COPIED TO CLIPBOARD