- I spoke recently with a BlackBerry Mobile employee who pretty much confirmed what many of us had suspected: BlackBerry Mobile has experienced growing pains with the KEYone largely because TCL has always been a "Build to Order " manufacturer. This means that their business model was to fill specific orders for a committed quantity of items.
Based on that information, it's pretty clear why they are having trouble with stock outs.
In a "Build to "Order" model, each manufacturing run is for a fixed quantity based on the sum of orders, with only enough safety stocks to cover manufacturing defects, variability in production and shipping.
Without significant orders from retailers and carriers committed to stocking it, the KEYone requires a "build to stock" model, which is dependent on getting accurate sales projections BY CHANNEL from the marketing and sales team, and on management approving production numbers based on these projections to adequately fill those channels, which obviously includes the risk of overstocks.
It's most likely that TCL management erred on the side of conservatism and only built enough units for confirmed orders with minimal safety stock. The result is frequent stock outs and lost sales.
Assuming they address this and build out an econometric forecasting function, this represents a classic case of growing pains as a manufacturer attempts to move down the supply chain, closer to customers, in order to capture more value, without adequately addressing the increased level of service required to be successful.
That much is obvious. The question is how TCL will respond to this challenge. I would hope that they improve rapidly as they release subsequent phones. If they don't improve rapidly, that would suggest to me that TCL is not fully bought in to the new model, and that would bode poorly for the future.
Posted with my trusty Z1006-27-17 10:28 AMLike 5 -
This would be a major business challenge for any new entrant to the market, and does not require any lack of commitment or competence by BlackBerry Mobile management.
If this stuff were easy, there would be many more top competitors!
Posted with my trusty Z10BigBadWulf likes this.06-27-17 10:40 AMLike 1 - BBMo/TCL took the most of April to launch 600 units at Selfrigde. And two weeks later they replenished the UK with a couple hundreds more unit.
Suppose that that replenishment was 1000 units for a optimistic figure, then they were turning out 500 units a weeks.
Let's say that they get very good from there and had been able to get all the tooling and equipment to expand or add in new production lines and sped up the production rate 4 times, they would turn out 2000 units per week to provide for North American market at end of May. So they got 8000 units out in May to resupply UK and launch in US and Canada. This is a little bit optimistic. At 2000 units per week and in the first 6 months or 26 weeks, BBMo/TCL would produce 50000 unit.
To move 200000 units in the first 6 months, they would have to expand the production line 4 times again or 16 times from the initial run. I would not do it if I were Steve Cistulli or whatever his name is.
I still think that TCL is assembling the phone in a classroom size warehouse, LOL
Just some calculation for fun.laketrout73 likes this.06-27-17 12:46 PMLike 1 - BBMo/TCL took the most of April to launch 600 units at Selfrigde. And two weeks later they replenished the UK with a couple hundreds more unit.
Suppose that that replenishment was 1000 units for a optimistic figure, then they were turning out 500 units a weeks.
Let's say that they get very good from there and had been able to get all the tooling and equipment to expand or add in new production lines and sped up the production rate 4 times, they would turn out 2000 units per week to provide for North American market at end of May. So they got 8000 units out in May to resupply UK and launch in US and Canada. This is a little bit optimistic. At 2000 units per week and in the first 6 months or 26 weeks, BBMo/TCL would produce 50000 unit.
To move 200000 units in the first 6 months, they would have to expand the production line 4 times again or 16 times from the initial run. I would not do it if I were Steve Cistulli or whatever his name is.
I still think that TCL is assembling the phone in a classroom size warehouse, LOL
Just some calculation for fun.
But it's also important to note that, unlike BlackBerry, TCL won't feel much financial pain from this initiative. They have gotten a lot of positive press that they can use to establish credibility for the next device. It's going to take years to rehabilitate the brand, if they can do it. Currently the main value is name recognition, but that doesn't equate to credibility yet.
Posted with my trusty Z10stlabrat and BigBadWulf like this.06-27-17 01:39 PMLike 2 - BBMo/TCL took the most of April to launch 600 units at Selfrigde. And two weeks later they replenished the UK with a couple hundreds more unit.
Suppose that that replenishment was 1000 units for a optimistic figure, then they were turning out 500 units a weeks.
Let's say that they get very good from there and had been able to get all the tooling and equipment to expand or add in new production lines and sped up the production rate 4 times, they would turn out 2000 units per week to provide for North American market at end of May. So they got 8000 units out in May to resupply UK and launch in US and Canada. This is a little bit optimistic. At 2000 units per week and in the first 6 months or 26 weeks, BBMo/TCL would produce 50000 unit.
To move 200000 units in the first 6 months, they would have to expand the production line 4 times again or 16 times from the initial run. I would not do it if I were Steve Cistulli or whatever his name is.
I still think that TCL is assembling the phone in a classroom size warehouse, LOL
Just some calculation for fun.
Where did you get the uk figures?
Posted via CB1006-27-17 05:40 PMLike 0 -
- I spoke recently with a BlackBerry Mobile employee who pretty much confirmed what many of us had suspected: BlackBerry Mobile has experienced growing pains with the KEYone largely because TCL has always been a "Build to Order " manufacturer. This means that their business model was to fill specific orders for a committed quantity of items.
Based on that information, it's pretty clear why they are having trouble with stock outs.
In a "Build to "Order" model, each manufacturing run is for a fixed quantity based on the sum of orders, with only enough safety stocks to cover manufacturing defects, variability in production and shipping.
Without significant orders from retailers and carriers committed to stocking it, the KEYone requires a "build to stock" model, which is dependent on getting accurate sales projections BY CHANNEL from the marketing and sales team, and on management approving production numbers based on these projections to adequately fill those channels, which obviously includes the risk of overstocks.
It's most likely that TCL management erred on the side of conservatism and only built enough units for confirmed orders with minimal safety stock. The result is frequent stock outs and lost sales.
Assuming they address this and build out an econometric forecasting function, this represents a classic case of growing pains as a manufacturer attempts to move down the supply chain, closer to customers, in order to capture more value, without adequately addressing the increased level of service required to be successful.
That much is obvious. The question is how TCL will respond to this challenge. I would hope that they improve rapidly as they release subsequent phones. If they don't improve rapidly, that would suggest to me that TCL is not fully bought in to the new model, and that would bode poorly for the future.
Posted with my trusty Z10
Posted via CB1006-28-17 08:03 AMLike 0 - I spoke recently with a BlackBerry Mobile employee who pretty much confirmed what many of us had suspected: BlackBerry Mobile has experienced growing pains with the KEYone largely because TCL has always been a "Build to Order " manufacturer. This means that their business model was to fill specific orders for a committed quantity of items.
Based on that information, it's pretty clear why they are having trouble with stock outs.
In a "Build to "Order" model, each manufacturing run is for a fixed quantity based on the sum of orders, with only enough safety stocks to cover manufacturing defects, variability in production and shipping.
Without significant orders from retailers and carriers committed to stocking it, the KEYone requires a "build to stock" model, which is dependent on getting accurate sales projections BY CHANNEL from the marketing and sales team, and on management approving production numbers based on these projections to adequately fill those channels, which obviously includes the risk of overstocks.
It's most likely that TCL management erred on the side of conservatism and only built enough units for confirmed orders with minimal safety stock. The result is frequent stock outs and lost sales.
Assuming they address this and build out an econometric forecasting function, this represents a classic case of growing pains as a manufacturer attempts to move down the supply chain, closer to customers, in order to capture more value, without adequately addressing the increased level of service required to be successful.
That much is obvious. The question is how TCL will respond to this challenge. I would hope that they improve rapidly as they release subsequent phones. If they don't improve rapidly, that would suggest to me that TCL is not fully bought in to the new model, and that would bode poorly for the future.
Posted with my trusty Z1006-28-17 10:21 AMLike 0 - Bla1zeCB OGHeh.. falls in line with what I said yesterday in a different thread. - https://forums.crackberry.com/showth...1#post1294210006-28-17 01:08 PMLike 0
- 06-28-17 03:12 PMLike 0
- Build to order is CM model when you execute the order by customer who did marketing, forecast, roadmap, target customer demographic, etc. etc. very strange when TCL take over the primary role of BBM still using this model. no wonder got hiccups in the supply channel... very costly (both financial and logistic support)... you pay for no over stock, the price is hidden, un-quantifiable at this stage. But damage for brand, the promise to deliver, carrier trust, etc.etc. enough to take out some high level head...IMHO. TCL is not ready for prime time (better learn fast before too late).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Build_to_order
Look like TCL should employ watson (AI) to learn from the order/stock behavior of their customer, not just repeated out of stock in almost every country they launch... slow learning...Last edited by stlabrat; 06-29-17 at 08:34 AM.
06-28-17 03:29 PMLike 0 - So, 1st they delay over and over again, and as the pressure gets too high, they claim this was because of 'unexpectedly high demand' that they wanted to be sure to be able to satisfy.
Then, they started selling it, but in such tiny numbers, that you really needed a lucky punch to get one (but what about the previous claim then?). But at least the major dealers seemed to get a handful then and when.
Then, the first reports on screens popping out and weak reception appeared. They kind of acknowledged the screen issue and promised to improve. No word on reception until today though.
Then, suddenly, there seems to be no more stock nor any new delivery at all, for several weeks (at least in those parts of Europe that I'm looking at). Still no availability (I still haven't received my replacement unit, ~4 weeks after having returned #1 due to weak reception). Even the carriers that were announced to start selling it ran out of it instantly, and many haven't received more units yet.
Then (today), they announce that they will further delay selling of unlocked devices (Canada?), for months (!?!), due to allegedly high carrier demand that they want to satisfy first.
Sorry TCL, but I stopped believing this BS quite some time ago already. I think you had/have a quality and/or design problem, and that you stopped producing any more units in order to fix the issues first.
It is basically a good thing, to react on issues quickly, but I don't want to be taken for a fool, by being told such stories that become less and less believable.06-28-17 03:57 PMLike 0 - So, 1st they delay over and over again, and as the pressure gets too high, they claim this was because of 'unexpectedly high demand' that they wanted to be sure to be able to satisfy.
Then, they started selling it, but in such tiny numbers, that you really needed a lucky punch to get one (but what about the previous claim then?). But at least the major dealers seemed to get a handful then and when.
Then, the first reports on screens popping out and weak reception appeared. They kind of acknowledged the screen issue and promised to improve. No word on reception until today though.
Then, suddenly, there seems to be no more stock nor any new delivery at all, for several weeks (at least in those parts of Europe that I'm looking at). Still no availability (I still haven't received my replacement unit, ~4 weeks after having returned #1 due to weak reception). Even the carriers that were announced to start selling it ran out of it instantly, and many haven't received more units yet.
Then (today), they announce that they will further delay selling of unlocked devices (Canada?), for months (!?!), due to allegedly high carrier demand that they want to satisfy first.
Sorry TCL, but I stopped believing this BS quite some time ago already. I think you had/have a quality and/or design problem, and that you stopped producing any more units in order to fix the issues first.
It is basically a good thing, to react on issues quickly, but I don't want to be taken for a fool, by being told such stories that become less and less believable.06-28-17 11:02 PMLike 0 -
-
- And a keyboard phone to boot - even though here they were swear blind it is different, at one of the earnings calls a few years ago, they noted that candybars were outselling keyboard phones 3:1.06-29-17 02:18 AMLike 0
- And a keyboard phone to boot - even though here they will swear blind it is different, at one of the earnings calls a few years ago they noted that candybars were outselling keyboard phones 3:1.06-29-17 02:18 AMLike 0
- still on amazon best selling list of number 13, ahead of sammy S7 for unlock (or any other sammy). if you slot the number 12 and number 14 sales number, you got rough estimate of K1 for amazon. ;-)06-29-17 07:29 AMLike 0
- price point get into effect. candybar boarder line between the smart phone and dummy... if price is low enough, you got both group buying it.06-29-17 07:31 AMLike 0
-
- No - don't know why you think so. I said 'no word on reception' - which means they did not acknowledge any issue.06-29-17 09:13 AMLike 0
- Growing pains they are!? But isnt it awesome that a company such as TCL can grow from learning about logistical economics!?06-29-17 09:27 AMLike 0
- your awesome got different definition than mine... BTO (build to order without JIT support like amazon for a product like K1 is sure miss - if not failure... particularly, they got initial inkling at trade show the market reception of K1... either they didn't take it seriously, or someone don't believe all the analyst and their follower, like CBers will put money where their mouth is... total logistical failure with all pee ka boo product launch).06-29-17 10:14 AMLike 0
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