06-30-17 10:17 AM
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  1. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    I spoke recently with a BlackBerry Mobile employee who pretty much confirmed what many of us had suspected: BlackBerry Mobile has experienced growing pains with the KEYone largely because TCL has always been a "Build to Order " manufacturer. This means that their business model was to fill specific orders for a committed quantity of items.

    Based on that information, it's pretty clear why they are having trouble with stock outs.

    In a "Build to "Order" model, each manufacturing run is for a fixed quantity based on the sum of orders, with only enough safety stocks to cover manufacturing defects, variability in production and shipping.

    Without significant orders from retailers and carriers committed to stocking it, the KEYone requires a "build to stock" model, which is dependent on getting accurate sales projections BY CHANNEL from the marketing and sales team, and on management approving production numbers based on these projections to adequately fill those channels, which obviously includes the risk of overstocks.

    It's most likely that TCL management erred on the side of conservatism and only built enough units for confirmed orders with minimal safety stock. The result is frequent stock outs and lost sales.

    Assuming they address this and build out an econometric forecasting function, this represents a classic case of growing pains as a manufacturer attempts to move down the supply chain, closer to customers, in order to capture more value, without adequately addressing the increased level of service required to be successful.

    That much is obvious. The question is how TCL will respond to this challenge. I would hope that they improve rapidly as they release subsequent phones. If they don't improve rapidly, that would suggest to me that TCL is not fully bought in to the new model, and that would bode poorly for the future.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    06-27-17 11:28 AM
  2. Carrtman's Avatar
    what were you expecting? No sane company is going to do a BB phone based on estimation only.

    This model works tremendously for One Plus. Without TCL there wouldn't be a Keyone think about it this way
    RicFr likes this.
    06-27-17 11:32 AM
  3. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    what were you expecting? No sane company is going to do a BB phone based on estimation only.

    This model works tremendously for One Plus. Without TCL there wouldn't be a Keyone think about it this way
    I'm not blaming them. I would not have been able to estimate demand by channel either. I think it would be safe to estimate that they could sell between 200K and 500K in the first six months, based on the last PKB device (Passport). But how on earth could they know how to allocate that volume by channel AND covince the channel partners to take on the inventory risk and devote the shelf space.

    This would be a major business challenge for any new entrant to the market, and does not require any lack of commitment or competence by BlackBerry Mobile management.

    If this stuff were easy, there would be many more top competitors!

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    BigBadWulf likes this.
    06-27-17 11:40 AM
  4. littlebuff's Avatar
    BBMo/TCL took the most of April to launch 600 units at Selfrigde. And two weeks later they replenished the UK with a couple hundreds more unit.
    Suppose that that replenishment was 1000 units for a optimistic figure, then they were turning out 500 units a weeks.
    Let's say that they get very good from there and had been able to get all the tooling and equipment to expand or add in new production lines and sped up the production rate 4 times, they would turn out 2000 units per week to provide for North American market at end of May. So they got 8000 units out in May to resupply UK and launch in US and Canada. This is a little bit optimistic. At 2000 units per week and in the first 6 months or 26 weeks, BBMo/TCL would produce 50000 unit.
    To move 200000 units in the first 6 months, they would have to expand the production line 4 times again or 16 times from the initial run. I would not do it if I were Steve Cistulli or whatever his name is.
    I still think that TCL is assembling the phone in a classroom size warehouse, LOL

    Just some calculation for fun.
    laketrout73 likes this.
    06-27-17 01:46 PM
  5. bb10adopter111's Avatar
    BBMo/TCL took the most of April to launch 600 units at Selfrigde. And two weeks later they replenished the UK with a couple hundreds more unit.
    Suppose that that replenishment was 1000 units for a optimistic figure, then they were turning out 500 units a weeks.
    Let's say that they get very good from there and had been able to get all the tooling and equipment to expand or add in new production lines and sped up the production rate 4 times, they would turn out 2000 units per week to provide for North American market at end of May. So they got 8000 units out in May to resupply UK and launch in US and Canada. This is a little bit optimistic. At 2000 units per week and in the first 6 months or 26 weeks, BBMo/TCL would produce 50000 unit.
    To move 200000 units in the first 6 months, they would have to expand the production line 4 times again or 16 times from the initial run. I would not do it if I were Steve Cistulli or whatever his name is.
    I still think that TCL is assembling the phone in a classroom size warehouse, LOL

    Just some calculation for fun.
    Right. There's no question that they're losing significant sales at this point, and I doubt they'll ever know what the sales figures might have been had the phone been widely available.

    But it's also important to note that, unlike BlackBerry, TCL won't feel much financial pain from this initiative. They have gotten a lot of positive press that they can use to establish credibility for the next device. It's going to take years to rehabilitate the brand, if they can do it. Currently the main value is name recognition, but that doesn't equate to credibility yet.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    stlabrat and BigBadWulf like this.
    06-27-17 02:39 PM
  6. yessuz's Avatar
    BBMo/TCL took the most of April to launch 600 units at Selfrigde. And two weeks later they replenished the UK with a couple hundreds more unit.
    Suppose that that replenishment was 1000 units for a optimistic figure, then they were turning out 500 units a weeks.
    Let's say that they get very good from there and had been able to get all the tooling and equipment to expand or add in new production lines and sped up the production rate 4 times, they would turn out 2000 units per week to provide for North American market at end of May. So they got 8000 units out in May to resupply UK and launch in US and Canada. This is a little bit optimistic. At 2000 units per week and in the first 6 months or 26 weeks, BBMo/TCL would produce 50000 unit.
    To move 200000 units in the first 6 months, they would have to expand the production line 4 times again or 16 times from the initial run. I would not do it if I were Steve Cistulli or whatever his name is.
    I still think that TCL is assembling the phone in a classroom size warehouse, LOL

    Just some calculation for fun.
    Uhm.. did I miss something?
    Where did you get the uk figures?

    Posted via CB10
    06-27-17 06:40 PM
  7. littlebuff's Avatar
    Uhm.. did I miss something?
    Where did you get the uk figures?

    Posted via CB10
    The first 600 for launch at Selfridge was brought uo here in one of the thread by someone with an inside contact. The rest was pure guessing or in other word made up

    Posted via CB10
    06-28-17 08:37 AM
  8. Emaderton3's Avatar
    I spoke recently with a BlackBerry Mobile employee who pretty much confirmed what many of us had suspected: BlackBerry Mobile has experienced growing pains with the KEYone largely because TCL has always been a "Build to Order " manufacturer. This means that their business model was to fill specific orders for a committed quantity of items.

    Based on that information, it's pretty clear why they are having trouble with stock outs.

    In a "Build to "Order" model, each manufacturing run is for a fixed quantity based on the sum of orders, with only enough safety stocks to cover manufacturing defects, variability in production and shipping.

    Without significant orders from retailers and carriers committed to stocking it, the KEYone requires a "build to stock" model, which is dependent on getting accurate sales projections BY CHANNEL from the marketing and sales team, and on management approving production numbers based on these projections to adequately fill those channels, which obviously includes the risk of overstocks.

    It's most likely that TCL management erred on the side of conservatism and only built enough units for confirmed orders with minimal safety stock. The result is frequent stock outs and lost sales.

    Assuming they address this and build out an econometric forecasting function, this represents a classic case of growing pains as a manufacturer attempts to move down the supply chain, closer to customers, in order to capture more value, without adequately addressing the increased level of service required to be successful.

    That much is obvious. The question is how TCL will respond to this challenge. I would hope that they improve rapidly as they release subsequent phones. If they don't improve rapidly, that would suggest to me that TCL is not fully bought in to the new model, and that would bode poorly for the future.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    This does explain a lot. Plus I would imagine that some of the manufacturing time is going toward other products which could interfere or no?

    Posted via CB10
    06-28-17 09:03 AM
  9. anon(10252394)'s Avatar
    I spoke recently with a BlackBerry Mobile employee who pretty much confirmed what many of us had suspected: BlackBerry Mobile has experienced growing pains with the KEYone largely because TCL has always been a "Build to Order " manufacturer. This means that their business model was to fill specific orders for a committed quantity of items.

    Based on that information, it's pretty clear why they are having trouble with stock outs.

    In a "Build to "Order" model, each manufacturing run is for a fixed quantity based on the sum of orders, with only enough safety stocks to cover manufacturing defects, variability in production and shipping.

    Without significant orders from retailers and carriers committed to stocking it, the KEYone requires a "build to stock" model, which is dependent on getting accurate sales projections BY CHANNEL from the marketing and sales team, and on management approving production numbers based on these projections to adequately fill those channels, which obviously includes the risk of overstocks.

    It's most likely that TCL management erred on the side of conservatism and only built enough units for confirmed orders with minimal safety stock. The result is frequent stock outs and lost sales.

    Assuming they address this and build out an econometric forecasting function, this represents a classic case of growing pains as a manufacturer attempts to move down the supply chain, closer to customers, in order to capture more value, without adequately addressing the increased level of service required to be successful.

    That much is obvious. The question is how TCL will respond to this challenge. I would hope that they improve rapidly as they release subsequent phones. If they don't improve rapidly, that would suggest to me that TCL is not fully bought in to the new model, and that would bode poorly for the future.

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    So they didn't make enough, eh?
    06-28-17 11:21 AM
  10. Bla1ze's Avatar
    Heh.. falls in line with what I said yesterday in a different thread. - https://forums.crackberry.com/showth...1#post12942100
    06-28-17 02:08 PM
  11. ajwan's Avatar
    The fact that the build-to-order model is consistently selling out can only be viewed as a good thing IMHO (despite the lost sales). This will provide TCL/BBMobile with valuable data for future launches.
    06-28-17 04:00 PM
  12. danfrancisco's Avatar
    The fact that the build-to-order model is consistently selling out can only be viewed as a good thing IMHO (despite the lost sales). This will provide TCL/BBMobile with valuable data for future launches.
    Agreed! I've had a KEYone for almost two months now and already am looking forward to the KEYtwo!
    06-28-17 04:12 PM
  13. stlabrat's Avatar
    Build to order is CM model when you execute the order by customer who did marketing, forecast, roadmap, target customer demographic, etc. etc. very strange when TCL take over the primary role of BBM still using this model. no wonder got hiccups in the supply channel... very costly (both financial and logistic support)... you pay for no over stock, the price is hidden, un-quantifiable at this stage. But damage for brand, the promise to deliver, carrier trust, etc.etc. enough to take out some high level head...IMHO. TCL is not ready for prime time (better learn fast before too late).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Build_to_order
    Look like TCL should employ watson (AI) to learn from the order/stock behavior of their customer, not just repeated out of stock in almost every country they launch... slow learning...
    Last edited by stlabrat; 06-29-17 at 09:34 AM.
    06-28-17 04:29 PM
  14. gnirkatto's Avatar
    So, 1st they delay over and over again, and as the pressure gets too high, they claim this was because of 'unexpectedly high demand' that they wanted to be sure to be able to satisfy.

    Then, they started selling it, but in such tiny numbers, that you really needed a lucky punch to get one (but what about the previous claim then?). But at least the major dealers seemed to get a handful then and when.

    Then, the first reports on screens popping out and weak reception appeared. They kind of acknowledged the screen issue and promised to improve. No word on reception until today though.

    Then, suddenly, there seems to be no more stock nor any new delivery at all, for several weeks (at least in those parts of Europe that I'm looking at). Still no availability (I still haven't received my replacement unit, ~4 weeks after having returned #1 due to weak reception). Even the carriers that were announced to start selling it ran out of it instantly, and many haven't received more units yet.

    Then (today), they announce that they will further delay selling of unlocked devices (Canada?), for months (!?!), due to allegedly high carrier demand that they want to satisfy first.

    Sorry TCL, but I stopped believing this BS quite some time ago already. I think you had/have a quality and/or design problem, and that you stopped producing any more units in order to fix the issues first.

    It is basically a good thing, to react on issues quickly, but I don't want to be taken for a fool, by being told such stories that become less and less believable.
    06-28-17 04:57 PM
  15. BigBadWulf's Avatar
    So, 1st they delay over and over again, and as the pressure gets too high, they claim this was because of 'unexpectedly high demand' that they wanted to be sure to be able to satisfy.

    Then, they started selling it, but in such tiny numbers, that you really needed a lucky punch to get one (but what about the previous claim then?). But at least the major dealers seemed to get a handful then and when.

    Then, the first reports on screens popping out and weak reception appeared. They kind of acknowledged the screen issue and promised to improve. No word on reception until today though.

    Then, suddenly, there seems to be no more stock nor any new delivery at all, for several weeks (at least in those parts of Europe that I'm looking at). Still no availability (I still haven't received my replacement unit, ~4 weeks after having returned #1 due to weak reception). Even the carriers that were announced to start selling it ran out of it instantly, and many haven't received more units yet.

    Then (today), they announce that they will further delay selling of unlocked devices (Canada?), for months (!?!), due to allegedly high carrier demand that they want to satisfy first.

    Sorry TCL, but I stopped believing this BS quite some time ago already. I think you had/have a quality and/or design problem, and that you stopped producing any more units in order to fix the issues first.

    It is basically a good thing, to react on issues quickly, but I don't want to be taken for a fool, by being told such stories that become less and less believable.
    That's all predicated on the assumption the sales volume is extremely low, which we may never know.
    06-29-17 12:02 AM
  16. undefinederror's Avatar
    I think it would be safe to estimate that they could sell between 200K and 500K in the first six months, based on the last PKB device (Passport).

    Posted with my trusty Z10
    I'd go higher than that. The KEYone has a normal keyboard
    06-29-17 12:06 AM
  17. evodevo69's Avatar
    That's all predicated on the assumption the sales volume is extremely low, which we may never know.
    It's true we may never know but it's more reasonable to assume that it follows historical trends than to assume a BlackBerry phone suddenly sells well.
    06-29-17 12:07 AM
  18. cgk's Avatar
    It's true we may never know but it's more reasonable to assume that it follows historical trends than to assume a BlackBerry phone suddenly sells well.
    And a keyboard phone to boot - even though here they were swear blind it is different, at one of the earnings calls a few years ago, they noted that candybars were outselling keyboard phones 3:1.
    06-29-17 03:18 AM
  19. cgk's Avatar
    It's true we may never know but it's more reasonable to assume that it follows historical trends than to assume a BlackBerry phone suddenly sells well.
    And a keyboard phone to boot - even though here they will swear blind it is different, at one of the earnings calls a few years ago they noted that candybars were outselling keyboard phones 3:1.
    06-29-17 03:18 AM
  20. stlabrat's Avatar
    That's all predicated on the assumption the sales volume is extremely low, which we may never know.
    still on amazon best selling list of number 13, ahead of sammy S7 for unlock (or any other sammy). if you slot the number 12 and number 14 sales number, you got rough estimate of K1 for amazon. ;-)
    06-29-17 08:29 AM
  21. stlabrat's Avatar
    And a keyboard phone to boot - even though here they will swear blind it is different, at one of the earnings calls a few years ago they noted that candybars were outselling keyboard phones 3:1.
    price point get into effect. candybar boarder line between the smart phone and dummy... if price is low enough, you got both group buying it.
    06-29-17 08:31 AM
  22. JuiciPatties's Avatar
    ... No word on reception until today though.

    ...
    Can you provide a link or quote to what was stated? I tried to look on twitter and see what they have posted, but couldn't find it.

    So they have acknowledged an issue with reception and committed to fixing it?
    06-29-17 10:09 AM
  23. gnirkatto's Avatar
    Can you provide a link or quote to what was stated? I tried to look on twitter and see what they have posted, but couldn't find it.

    So they have acknowledged an issue with reception and committed to fixing it?
    No - don't know why you think so. I said 'no word on reception' - which means they did not acknowledge any issue.
    06-29-17 10:13 AM
  24. anon(870071)'s Avatar
    Growing pains they are!? But isnt it awesome that a company such as TCL can grow from learning about logistical economics!?
    06-29-17 10:27 AM
  25. stlabrat's Avatar
    your awesome got different definition than mine... BTO (build to order without JIT support like amazon for a product like K1 is sure miss - if not failure... particularly, they got initial inkling at trade show the market reception of K1... either they didn't take it seriously, or someone don't believe all the analyst and their follower, like CBers will put money where their mouth is... total logistical failure with all pee ka boo product launch).
    06-29-17 11:14 AM
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