[OrlandoAlex]

Just got this from amazon. Ordered CDMA on 30th
Your new estimated delivery date is: Tuesday, June 20, 2017 - Monday, July 10, 2017

This doesn't bode well for me. I ordered it on May 31 and haven't gotten an estimate yet. In my order history on Amazon it just says they need more time to get an estimate, which is a flowery way of saying "we don't know." I hope this doesn't mean I'm looking at longer than July 10, because if that's the case, screw it, I'll just get a Priv.

[flyersfan76]

You guys are nuts if you think this debacle is amazon's fault.

When a person ordering after 12am on May 31st is getting their KEYones before a person that orders between 10-11:59 on the 30th THAT is Amazon's fault for not doing first come first served. It is not happening a lot but that is on them.

As for low stock yeah that is not Amazon's fault.

[flyersfan76]

Same here! I had ordered a GSM on the 30th. Got two emails today with the latest one informing me of a June 6 delivery date. I'm hoping it's not a joke. I am so glad I didn't cancel my order (I almost did out of frustration and disappointment)!

Posted via CB10

Same email this morning also. I got the 6th but that is a whole lot better than the 20th and beyond.

[hec666]

Well i ordered on the 31st in the morning and just got an email with estimated delivery of June 7th!! So excited! cant wait!

[world traveler and former ceo]

Yep.. they are ramping up and deliveries arriving quicker than many expect....

Posted via CB10

[ltoncb]

What's sad is that folks who might have been thinking of getting the K1 are not going to wait two months for Amazon to restock.

In more than a few cases they aren't going to have to. Just look at post #5 above. One person has an order in at both Amazon and BestBuy. If 2-3K folks do that all they have done is inject a ton of noise in the estimation system for the time to buy. Blackberry also gets more noise feeding into their system of how many to make and where to allocate them too.

Some folks may even have stuffed more than two queues, if the rogue, cross-border market gets bigger instead of smaller. ( probably another contributing reason the amazon.ca unlocked didn't go live.) . That is an even larger amount of noise.

Initial demand bubbles are always full of noise. However, the more fanatical/rabid the fan base is that will only increase the noise that will be be present.

Not good news for a product that was so hyped up, my concern is if TCL can't build enough units so satisfy a small niche market, are they going to be able to support the product long term?

1. TCL has built more than few different phone models. ( first couple of rows here are last years models All alcatel phones plus throw in the Dtek models )

This is really a question of 'right sizing' how much capacity the allocate to Blackberry; not whether making a large number of phones is over their head.

2. Rightsizing has problems. See the double queue stuff above. If they allocate a factory that does 50K/week and by week 8 the demand has collapsed to 2K/week those extra production lines are going to run out of demand to fill. When they don't make a profit on the line allocation how are they going to be able to support the product long term?

3. If they extremely rapidly crank up volume too high and have quality issues what is that going to do to product support long term? This phone isn't like most of the other phones they make so they can't really run it on the exact same lines their higher volume stuff runs on.

4. The long term support of this particular phone is substantially going to rest on what BlackBerry Inc. does as they are responsible for the software/firmware ( custom Android OS, apps). Do they have a long term consistent track record supporting 3rd parties with Android OS? Nope. Did many of the early access reviewers state the OS was glitchy, sputtering up until the devices went up for sale in the UK? Yes. I'm not saying BB Inc. won't do OK over the long term, but from TCL's perspective of building 1M phones before that has been proven.... that is a big risk factor. There is no good business reason at all to fill warehouses with the level of stock that is at the highest estimate of what might be sold. If that doesn't work out TCL is holding the bag. (that is why BB Inc. sold off hardware. If it was such a super-duper sure thing why would BB Inc. sell it off????? It isn't. )

I hope I wrong on all of this, but sadly this was not a good new product launch at all.

It appears they were too conservative in their demand estimates. The speculators ( either for profit or the double-triple queue stuffing) isn't helping. I think BBMoible was off in how they dealt and communicated about that. I think the delay to try to get around the severity of the understocking was never going to completely solve the problem. My guess is that they didn't want to openly state that because it would only encourage more speculators and make the problem even worse.

[ltoncb]

Yep.. they are ramping up and deliveries arriving quicker than many expect....

Posted via CB10

The people at the end of the line should not expect the same times as the folks at the front of the line. But as I mentioned in an another response above there is probably lots of noise in these estimates from speculators ( who will drop out at random rates as time goes on).

The KeyOne GSM model isn't the number 1 selling unlocked phone at Amazon anymore so the number of people getting into line is slowing down slightly. ( GSM number 1 -> 2, CDMA number 3 -> 4 ).
So demand is still outstripping supply ( even the incremental supply updates coming in. )

If you want one they pick a queue and get in line. The stuff up on Amazon is probably pessimistic estimates so that folks won't moan and groan about how they were mislead.

[SC457]

It's good news they sold out, just means demand is better than expected. I placed an order on Amazon and hoping to get one sometime this month. Bummed I didn't get one of the first ones but with BlackBerry not doing that we'll in hand set business the last 10 years I could see where they might limit the first production to gauge demand. Better than making to many, having to store them, and then discount heavily to get rid of inventory.

My main complaint would be allowing people to order 30 and then see them on eBay for 2-3 times asking price right away. Maybe they should have limited to 3-5 instead of up to 30 to take first inventory to try to resell on eBay for a ridiculous price.

Posted via CB10

[ltoncb]

.... But, it would have been nice if there was a system in place to only allow 3-4 devices being purchased at a time. That guy probably got the lions share.

Professional speculators can simply get around that by having 2-3 different credit cards and 5-6 different email addresses. if the peg on ship to address then just need 5-6 trusted friends. Probably same 5-8 friends/agents you line up to pump in the orders in parallel in the initial round of musical chairs.

Metrics keeps out the part-time, amateur speculators.

[ltoncb]

... I could see where they might limit the first production to gauge demand. Better than making to many, having to store them, and then discount heavily to get rid of inventory.

Undershooting 10-15% might be helpful in gauging demand. Undershooting by 15-30% is only going to invite speculators into the process. Even Higher, then the signal-to-noise ratio in your measurement gauge is delivering about as much noise as signal.
The initial demand bubble have lots of junk/noise in it. It isn't a very good gauge.

Discount heavily would mean taking a loss. The problem BBMobile/TCL probably has is trying to gauge what the demand will be after the initial demand bubble. What is the real long term demand going to be for the 3-6 months after the launch.

My main complaint would be allowing people to order 30 and then see them on eBay for 2-3 times asking price right away.

I don't think BBMobile is going to loose tons of sleep over that if the person ordering paid full price. Honestly at 2-3x asking price means more than a few folks are going to opt to patiently wait in line at Best Buy and Amazon for the phone. The longer the period that Best Buy and Amazon don't start shaving price off the phone .... that will probably help the Sprint store deal they lined up.

If there is an easy way to put a cap on purchases (have BB and Amazon turn on a switch setting in the store), then yes. But there is no way to completely stop folks who out to deliberately out to cheat the system for those kinds of mark-ups. They are ways to pay more to get around the limits so if the mark-up is very high there isn't much of a limitation for the extremely highly motivated.

[[email protected]]

Update - first it went to June 6 and now it's June 5. Back to June 4 or even tomorrow June 3 would be nice to have the weekend to play with it, but Monday June 5 will be just fine too.

[OrlandoAlex]

Got an email about 3 hours ago saying my CDMA estimated delivery from Amazon is June 21 - July 11. I ordered 1-day shipping. This is just a day behind what appears to be the initial shipment wave.

[rahz]

Update - first it went to June 6 and now it's June 5. Back to June 4 or even tomorrow June 3 would be nice to have the weekend to play with it, but Monday June 5 will be just fine too.

When did you initially place your order? When amazon said it was still in stock, or had it already gone out of stock when you placed the order? Thinking of placing an order on Amazon, just trying to hold out for a while to see when it comes back in stock (plus I'd like to see the official specs of the Oneplus 5 before committing)

[[email protected]]

Wednesday at about 10:30pm. It said pre-order. Not in stock.

[rahz]

cool, thanks!

[SK122387]

Right, just found that out.

Since you quoted my full post, and as an aside, the DTEK 50, DTEK 60, and KEYone are listed as being "by BlackBerry"; not TCL or BlackBerry Mobile.

I ordered mine shortly after midnight on 5/31 because of course they weren't available at 12:00am. The one I bought was not eligible for Prime, and said "by TCL Communications." Overnight, after I went to sleep, I woke up to see that some "by BlackBerry" models were on the site, eligible for Prime, but had a "ships 1 to 2 months." The by BlackBerry ones are the ones for sale now, with no sign of the TCL ones.

I'm kind of anxious though because it says arriving June 8-16 but it's already shipped and is less than an hour away from where I live, in transit, so I am hoping for Saturday the 3 or Monday the 5.

[butchowens]

Amazon Update

[JonCBK]

Welcome to a successful launch. There should always be a sellout at launch of a new product like this. Seems like the diehards are getting theirs within a week or so.
Now I wish there was more info on the cdma version.

[allbetsareoff29]

Welcome to a successful launch. There should always be a sellout at launch of a new product like this. Seems like the diehards are getting theirs within a week or so.
Now I wish there was more info on the cdma version.

0 CDMA stock != successful launch

[iUser]

Yes they did. Look at EBay! Stinks!

Then the best solution is "don't buy from them". Otherwise, they will do the same "business" next time.

[C_McD]

Well, guess it's more waiting... sigh.

I do have to complain - I went online the 30th at night and again the morning of the 31st, and the links on BlackBerryMobile wasn't active!

Z30 10.3.3.2205 USA