[Bbnivende]

I can do a lot of things that net me 3% profit (just a "meagre" number picked out of the air), but it diverts my resources away from things I can be doing for 10% or more.

They don’t really have that choice do they? No one is buying.

If they got out if the app business and OS update business their costs would be very low. Stock Analysts are all pointing to revenue concerns. Pretty sure that BlackBerry would love to increase their royalties.

The bigger issue is whether BlackBerry should be associated with handsets at all. Does their continued participation add to their brand value ? Stock value?

BlackBerry is selling Internet of Things Security and monetizing patents. If a corporate customer that makes phones wants to licence these products then fine.

The gross margin of this type of business is high - if they can find a buyer.

[conite]

They don’t really have that choice do they? No one is buying.

This particular thread of discussion started with "they should just charge TCL less" , and I was speaking to that.

[Invictus0]

Stock price has nothing to do with handsets at all and really hasnt for quite a long while. Not sure why you think it would by now. Thats why so many of us talk about how the licensing really isnt worth a huge effort to try and keep going. If they have to take a loss or near a loss to move 100k its probably just not even worth the 1-2% to the bottom line

I don't know if it's that simple, BlackBerry wanted to build licensing revenues to match enterprise and smartphones were part of that strategy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1C31GU

[conite]

I don't know if it's that simple, BlackBerry wanted to build licensing revenues to match enterprise and smartphones were part of that strategy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1C31GU

They were a "part" , yes. But I would say a rather small part.

[Invictus0]

They were a "part" , yes. But I would say a rather small part.

They make $10-15 per device according to Chen and in that article I linked to QNX is only making them $1.50 to $5 per infotainment license.

https://forums.crackberry.com/blackb...-bb10-1139865/

Chen also said he wanted devices to sell "multimillion units" per year so I highly doubt it was intended to be small.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bla...rter-1.4049251

[howarmat]

I don't know if it's that simple, BlackBerry wanted to build licensing revenues to match enterprise and smartphones were part of that strategy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1C31GU

Like mentioned there is a lot that goes into the licensing "bucket" Even with a million a year sales of phones at $15 a pop the smartphone portion of the licensing rev is not a huge amount.

[conite]

They make $10-15 per device according to Chen and in that article I linked to QNX is only making them $1.50 to $5 per infotainment license.

https://forums.crackberry.com/blackb...-bb10-1139865/

Chen also said he wanted devices to sell "multimillion units" per year so I highly doubt it was intended to be small.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bla...rter-1.4049251

$10-$15 per device, sure. But what are the costs?

But licencing is growing and is expected to keep growing at a decent rate according to the guidance - all while handset licencing is plummeting. So, based on that, I think it doesn't make up much of the total.

[Bbnivende]

This particular thread of discussion started with "they should just charge TCL less" , and I was speaking to that.

I would suggest that TCL is not interested in licensing the full BlackBerry Secure package, PKB technology and branding. Then too they would have to resolve any lingering issues surrounding their current agreement and monies owed.

The costing is probably a moot point.

[conite]

I would suggest that TCL is not interested in licensing the full BlackBerry Secure package, PKB technology and branding. Then too they would have to resolve any lingering issues surrounding their current agreement and monies owed.

The costing is probably a moot point.

Well, I've certainly talked about that for a long time.

I can only hope that TCL or some other OEM picks up the keyboard licencing alone and does something with it.

[Invictus0]

Like mentioned there is a lot that goes into the licensing "bucket" Even with a million a year sales of phones at $15 a pop the smartphone portion of the licensing rev is not a huge amount.

Of course, which is why Chen wanted multimillion units per year.

Chen said he expects to see some revenue from the Aurora this quarter, while TCT's KEYone device likely won't start shipping until May.

He said he'd be disappointed with one million units sold and expects the licensing agreements, in total, to pay royalties on multimillion units annually.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bla...rter-1.4049251

$10-$15 per device, sure. But what are the costs?

In the same quote Chen says the $10-15 is mostly profit.

The move would dramatically reduce the revenue from devices—from about $300 a phone to a $10 to $15 royalty fee, Chen estimates—but that would be almost pure profit

https://forums.crackberry.com/blackb...-bb10-1139865/

But licencing is growing and is expected to keep growing at a decent rate according to the guidance - all while handset licencing is plummeting. So, based on that, I think it doesn't make up much of the total.

Handsets don't make up much of the total but that's kind of the point, per Chen's own expectations above, they didn't meet them.

If licensees managed to sell 3-5 million units a year that would have more than doubled licensing revenues at the high end with these numbers. Would analysts and markets have reacted the same way if that were the case?

[conite]

If licensees managed to sell 3-5 million units a year that would have more than doubled licensing revenues at the high end with these numbers. Would analysts and markets have reacted the same way if that were the case?

That's fine, but it wasn't ever that, nor will it ever be that. It was just a business idea that never came to fruition.

That revenue was never there, so stock price shouldn't have been affected by it in 2020 one way or the other.

Licencing revenues are replete with opportunities - some pan out, and some don't. The net result is still growth for the business unit.

[Invictus0]

That's fine, but it wasn't ever that, nor will it ever be that. It was just a business idea that never came to fruition.

That revenue was never there, so stock price shouldn't have been affected by it in 2020 one way or the other.

Licencing revenues are replete with opportunities - some pan out, and some don't. The net result is still growth though.

Chen talking about a new Bold device is an idea that never came to fruition, BB Android based products are tangible with actual expectations behind them. Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean its impact can be ignored.

[conite]

Chen talking about a new Bold device is an idea that never came to fruition, BB Android based products are tangible with actual expectations behind them. Just because it didn't work out doesn't mean its impact can be ignored.

What indication do you have that stock prices went up based on the hopes of future handset licencing revenues specifically?

After 4 unsuccessful handset revenue models after the collapse of BIS SAF, I don't think anyone was betting much on the next one.

[Invictus0]

What indication do you have that stock prices went up based on the hopes of future handset licencing revenues specifically?

Licensing isn't split up like that but investors were clearly impressed with growing licensing revenue a few years ago. What two opportunities are focused on in the below article? (hint: QNX and BB Android)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1C31GU

It's not so much about the market though but clearly QNX is the next big play for BlackBerry and I think that was Chen's goal all along. But the self driving future is still a few years away and they need to bridge time until then. A successful BB Android business could have been an easy way to do this IMO.

[conite]

Licensing isn't split up like that but investors were clearly impressed with growing licensing revenue a few years ago. What two opportunities are focused on in the below article? (hint: QNX and BB Android)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKCN1C31GU

I don't believe handset licencing EVER contributed to licencing growth at all. Nor do I think it ever amounted to more than a few million. They didn't accrue it all in advance.

BlackBerry only collected 1.5 million from Optiemus in over 2 years. Even if the TCL deal was 10x that, it would have amounted to 4 million a year for 3 years.

[Invictus0]

I don't believe handset licencing EVER contributed to licencing growth at all. Nor do I think it ever amounted to more than a few million. They didn't accrue it all in advance.

BlackBerry only collected 1.3 million from Optiemus in over 2 years. Even if the TCL deal was 10x that, it would have amounted to 4 million a year.

Business is all about growth ultimately, I think it goes without saying that everyone would have wanted year 2 to be better than year 1.

[conite]

Business is all about growth ultimately, I think it goes without saying that everyone would have wanted year 2 to be better than year 1.

Yes. And the licencing unit is growing, and is forecasted to keep growing.

[i_plod_an_dr_void]

Blackberry is a household name because it still is in the handset business, licensing its product and hardening it. That is an impressive feat given that the giants that it plays with are massive behemouths, with near endless piles of sovereign funds it seems. The classic mouse around the elephants. Mice still exist. It ain't how big you are, its what you bring. BlackBerry brings.

[Invictus0]

Yes. And the licencing unit is growing, and is forecasted to keep growing.

Unless Cylance can do wonders it's clearly not fast enough to help BlackBerry overall as far as the market is concerned. Something will have to replace what BB Android could have been although I'm hopefully BlackBerry and TCL can still turn things around. Even if it's just licensing keyboard tech or Hub+ to TCL for KaiOS and Android phones.

[conite]

Unless Cylance can do wonders it's clearly not fast enough to help BlackBerry overall as far as the market is concerned. Something will have to replace what BB Android could have been although I'm hopefully BlackBerry and TCL can still turn things around. Even if it's just licensing keyboard tech or Hub+ to TCL for KaiOS and Android phones.

I'm hopeful too, but keyboard-only licencing would probably only amount to 7 figures total.

In any event, as you point out, the future for BlackBerry is clearly AI - both for Cylance and auto. They need to start showing solid growth very soon.

[Chuck Finley69]

The street hasn't cared or valued BBAndroid since it was introduced back in 2015 regardless of what it meant to us here. Since 2013 and the almost collapse of BlackBerry then, institutions and the street wanted BlackBerry to exit mobile. When BlackBerry announced mobile exit at the end of 2016, it actually bumped share price as many felt it sent real signal that BlackBerry was truly ready to shed the cinder block that represented the old company for the new one.

Analysts long ago backed out mobile hardware licensing revenue from total licensing revenue. Even if BlackBerry hardware licensing had reached 5 million units for all BlackBerry licensees, that was the best case scenario more or less. If there was truly any expected growth, analysts would have expected BlackBerry to remain in the mobile hardware business instead of licensing.

Right now, BlackBerry is getting hammered for it's current results. Integrating Cylance hasn't been the real problem. It's explaining why BlackBerry went and bought the business, not for the current space but how to leverage into BlackBerry other lines to exponentially grow the combined entity. The street could be viewing and blaming mobile licensing as unnecessary distraction.

Posted via CB10

[Bbnivende]

The street hasn't cared or valued BBAndroid since it was introduced back in 2015 regardless of what it meant to us here. Since 2013 and the almost collapse of BlackBerry then, institutions and the street wanted BlackBerry to exit mobile. When BlackBerry announced mobile exit at the end of 2016, it actually bumped share price as many felt it sent real signal that BlackBerry was truly ready to shed the cinder block that represented the old company for the new one.

Analysts long ago backed out mobile hardware licensing revenue from total licensing revenue. Even if BlackBerry hardware licensing had reached 5 million units for all BlackBerry licensees, that was the best case scenario more or less. If there was truly any expected growth, analysts would have expected BlackBerry to remain in the mobile hardware business instead of licensing.

Right now, BlackBerry is getting hammered for it's current results. Integrating Cylance hasn't been the real problem. It's explaining why BlackBerry went and bought the business, not for the current space but how to leverage into BlackBerry other lines to exponentially grow the combined entity. The street could be viewing and blaming mobile licensing as unnecessary distraction.

Posted via CB10

I could not find any analysts talking about mobile licensing as a distraction. If anything, the street probably thinks the royalties are actually greater than they really are.

For far too long, Chen has been promoting his personal brand as the turn around man and now the storyline is stale dated.

[conite]

I could not find any analysts talking about mobile licensing as a distraction. If anything, the street probably thinks the royalties are actually greater than they really are.

For far too long, Chen has been promoting his personal brand as the turn around man and now the storyline is stale dated.

That's because that seems to be the only thing most analysts ask about - they still can't fathom that BlackBerry is no longer about handsets. It's usually the last thing Chen actually wants to talk about, and almost the only thing he ever gets quoted on.

For better or worse, Chen and the BoD have put together the BlackBerry they conceived of in 2013. Now they can only hope that they made the right choices, and that they execute well.

I think the growth over the next 18 months will settle it (one way or the other) once and for all.

[Bbnivende]

That's because that seems to be the only thing most analysts ask about - they still can't fathom that BlackBerry is no longer about handsets. It's usually the last thing Chen actually wants to talk about, and almost the only thing he ever gets quoted on.

For better or worse, Chen and the BoD have put together the BlackBerry they conceived of in 2013. Now they can only hope that they made the right choices, and that they execute well.

I think the growth over the next 18 months will settle it (one way or the other) once and for all.

The main issues seem to be a decline in UEM sales combined with increased competition and the lack of growth in Cylance sales compared to the industry as a whole.

I agree that sales to TCL are small potatoes but am just pointing out that analysts have never mentioned this as a factor in the huge share price tumble.

[conite]

The main issues seem to be a decline in UEM sales combined with increased competition and the lack of growth in Cylance sales compared to the industry as a whole.

I agree that sales to TCL are small potatoes but am just pointing out that analysts have never mentioned this as a factor in the huge share price tumble.

That's why the next 18 months are critical - now that Cylance is coming out of its integration cycle (which is always a big drain).