[bh7171]

No OEM should develop an annual mobile phone any longer. It's simply not necessary and without BOGO or trade ins nobody or very few would upgrade. The numbers and data across all OEM's validate people's trends. The iPhone 11 will sell even fewer devices than the XR, XS, XS Max, Note 9 users have Micro SD and a phone jack and still exceptional performance that the 10 is not really a significant upgrade. Just like the S10 was not much over the S9 etc. You get my point. And although I don't own a Key 2 my BE Key One works exceptional and I bought mine reasonably 10 months after release. The Pixel 3a and 3a XL are game changers for the entire all touch device manufacturers moving forward. Use one and you will know. No longer is it necessary for ANY average user to pay flagship prices.

[conite]

No OEM should develop an annual mobile phone any longer. It's simply not necessary and without BOGO or trade ins nobody or very few would upgrade. The numbers and data across all OEM's validate people's trends. The iPhone 11 will sell even fewer devices than the XR, XS, XS Max, Note 9 users have Micro SD and a phone jack and still exceptional performance that the 10 is not really a significant upgrade. Just like the S10 was not much over the S9 etc. You get my point. And although I don't own a Key 2 my BE Key One works exceptional and I bought mine reasonably 10 months after release. The Pixel 3a and 3a XL are game changers for the entire all touch device manufacturers moving forward. Use one and you will know. No longer is it necessary for ANY average user to pay flagship prices.

For the big OEMs though, you've always got 1/3 of your gigantic user base ready to upgrade in any given year. It makes sense for them to do an annual refresh.

[bh7171]

For the big OEMs though, you've always got 1/3 of your gigantic user base ready to upgrade in any given year. It makes sense for them to do an annual refresh.

That's diminishing as well. Again take out BOGO or trade ins (and even with them) the numbers for annual sales are decreasing. USA Today ran a recent poll and the average user has ZERO appetite for 1000 dollar phones. Most are realizing that even on payments the devices cost too much. Its been the biggest scam ran. How much is '75 in flat panel OLED TV today vs the past? How much is a top flight laptop today vs the past? Hopefully you get my point. Also all one has to do is wait 4-6 months after release of new and get "new" device (because now it's "old" (absurd) for a fraction of initial cost.

[bb10adopter111]

That's diminishing as well. Again take out BOGO or trade ins (and even with them) the numbers for annual sales are decreasing. USA Today ran a recent poll and the average user has ZERO appetite for 1000 dollar phones. Most are realizing that even on payments the devices cost too much. Its been the biggest scam ran. How much is '75 in flat panel OLED TV today vs the past? How much is a top flight laptop today vs the past? Hopefully you get my point. Also all one has to do is wait 4-6 months after release of new and get "new" device (because now it's "old" (absurd) for a fraction of initial cost.

I think we'll see pricing analogous to cars, with a number of luxury brands and a ton of mid and low-priced cars by volume. There will always be room for a number of luxury products because they offer high margins, but they are a small percentage of sales by volume.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[TgeekB]

Also all one has to do is wait 4-6 months after release of new and get "new" device (because now it's "old" (absurd) for a fraction of initial cost.

Exactly what I do. Not throwing my money away. I bought a used iPhone XR in excellent condition for 1/3 less.

[bh7171]

I think we'll see pricing analogous to cars, with a number of luxury brands and a ton of mid and low-priced cars by volume. There will always be room for a number of luxury products because they offer high margins, but they are a small percentage of sales by volume.

Posted with my trusty Z10

I believe using a auto like model would make sense. Develop the chasis and overall build and then just upgrade the internals here and there for 4-5 years before a new model.

[bb10adopter111]

I believe using a auto like model would make sense. Develop the chasis and overall build and then just upgrade the internals here and there for 4-5 years before a new model.

That makes sense for the OEMS and the makers of components, who could maintain more consistency and spread platform development costs over several years.

The question is whether the public would accept it, or if they'd keep chasing the newest shiny object. OEMs won't want to risk their market share to move to a better manufacturing and support model.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[conite]

That's diminishing as well. Again take out BOGO or trade ins (and even with them) the numbers for annual sales are decreasing. USA Today ran a recent poll and the average user has ZERO appetite for 1000 dollar phones. Most are realizing that even on payments the devices cost too much. Its been the biggest scam ran. How much is '75 in flat panel OLED TV today vs the past? How much is a top flight laptop today vs the past? Hopefully you get my point. Also all one has to do is wait 4-6 months after release of new and get "new" device (because now it's "old" (absurd) for a fraction of initial cost.

I'm not sure what you're arguing.

Samsung, for instance, shouldn't have an annual refresh because they will sell less than they used to?

It's not like they only sell flagships btw, you can buy a brand new and highly-capable A50 for $299, or the entry-level A2 for $109.

They'll continue to do what they do until it's not profitable - notwithstanding the survey you mention.

[bh7171]

I'm not sure what you're arguing.

Samsung, for instance, shouldn't have an annual refresh because they will sell less than they used to?

It's not like they only sell flagships btw, you can buy a brand new and highly-capable A50 for $299, or the entry-level A2 for $109.

They'll continue to do what they do until it's not profitable - notwithstanding the survey you mention.

Yes, I believe Samsung, Apple, BlackBerry Mobile could and should sell the same device over say a 24 month period. People will still buy the S10 when the S11 is released and people will still buy last year's Apple offerings when the new ridiculously priced new models drop at a fraction of the price of the equivalent or a new mid range. This will drive mid range prices down further. I'll bet anything Samsung will offer me the equivalent of half the value of my S9 when new to "upgrade" to S11. Take those trade in offers and or BOGO away and sales of new annual flagship devices drop like a stone.

[conite]

Yes, I believe Samsung, Apple, BlackBerry Mobile could and should sell the same device over say a 24 month period. People will still buy the S10 when the S11 is released and people will still buy last year's Apple offerings when the new ridiculously priced new models drop at a fraction of the price of the equivalent or a new mid range. This will drive mid range prices down further. I'll bet anything Samsung will offer me the equivalent of half the value of my S9 when new to "upgrade" to S11. Take those trade in offers and or BOGO away and sales of new annual flagship devices drop like a stone.

I'm still confused.

Samsung will do whatever their market data tells them to. And right now, it is to continue to refresh their lineup every year.

[bh7171]

Just popped over to AC to see if Jerry Hildenbrand had posted anything new recently. (He's the only reason I still open that app) Nice article this AM on this very topic. "Buying a new phone every year is actually kind of crazy."

[conite]

Just popped over to AC to see if Jerry Hildenbrand had posted anything new recently. (He's the only reason I still open that app) Nice article this AM on this very topic. "Buying a new phone every year is actually kind of crazy."

I agree that buying a new phone every year, unless you're an enthusiast and enjoy that sort of thing, is excessive.

But, as I said, 1/3 of any OEM's user base is ready to upgrade in any given year (that means they've had their existing device for 3 years already).

[bb10adopter111]

I agree that buying a new phone every year, unless you're an enthusiast and enjoy that sort of thing, is excessive.

But, as I said, 1/3 of any OEM's user base is ready to upgrade in any given year (that means they've had their existing device for 3 years already).

I think4-5 years will become the norm. People used to buy new PCs every 3-5 years, and now it's more like 5-10 because the platforms and hardware are mature.

My KEYone is two years old, and I can't imagine upgrading it unless there's a major security issue. It's only 3/32, but that's really not hard to manage for me.
Posted with my trusty Z10

[conite]

I think4-5 years will become the norm. People used to buy new PCs every 3-5 years, and now it's more like 5-10 because the platforms and hardware are mature.

My KEYone is two years old, and I can't imagine upgrading it unless there's a major security issue. It's only 3/32, but that's really not hard to manage for me.
Posted with my trusty Z10

Well, that only means that an OEM still has 20-25% of its entire user base that wants to upgrade any given year. That's still many 10s of millions for the big guys.

[bh7171]

I think4-5 years will become the norm. People used to buy new PCs every 3-5 years, and now it's more like 5-10 because the platforms and hardware are mature.

My KEYone is two years old, and I can't imagine upgrading it unless there's a major security issue. It's only 3/32, but that's really not hard to manage for me.
Posted with my trusty Z10

Samsung as noted earlier has already been supporting the still good S7 devices into the 4th year. They recently announced security patches for those quarterly. Nokia and their re-entry to Android devices (except an Amazon version) are supporting 3 years with security patches. The support trend will continue upward and weed out the smaller players that choose not to support their devices as they will have less and less returning customers.

[bb10adopter111]

Well, that only means that an OEM still has 20-25% of its entire user base that wants to upgrade any given year. That's still many 10s of millions for the big guys.

Absolutely. I wasn't arguing the point. The difference between a replacement cycle of 2 and 5 years doesn't change the value of annual refreshes for the large players, but it may be an existential difference for the smaller ones.

Posted with my trusty Z10

[quizm]

It seems apparent that TCL hasn't decided what to do next. When they do, I'm sure they will pass it on.

My point is that some increased communication would help marketing. Consumers do not like uncertainty. I recall at the start of bbmobile a two year plan for three devices was tabled. We've had them but no word on any future plan.

[Chuck Finley69]

My point is that some increased communication would help marketing. Consumers do not like uncertainty. I recall at the start of bbmobile a two year plan for three devices was tabled. We've had them but no word on any future plan.

Well there you go...

[quizm]

For the big OEMs though, you've always got 1/3 of your gigantic user base ready to upgrade in any given year. It makes sense for them to do an annual refresh.

More than anything some plan helps consumers to plan too. There may be less need for an annual version. But let us know.

[conite]

My point is that some increased communication would help marketing. Consumers do not like uncertainty. I recall at the start of bbmobile a two year plan for three devices was tabled. We've had them but no word on any future plan.

So, what are they to say? "We haven't decided yet, so hold on?"

[Chuck Finley69]

So, what are they to say? "We haven't decided yet, so hold on?"

As part of the recent information regarding Optiemus along with speculation, there could be some attempt with renegotiation of terms. Again, that wouldn’t be publicly disclosed either.

[Andrew-NYC]

I truly hope there will be a Key 3, as I absolutely love my Key 2 and dread the day it no longer works for whatever reason. I don’t have keyboard issues, lag issues, or any other problems. Yes, the swipe-up motion could be more reliable, but other than that - no complaints! Well, maybe one-the keyboard backlighting could be brighter.

[ray689]

So, what are they to say? "We haven't decided yet, so hold on?"

You can't seriously believe they don't know their plans for the next year and are just sitting there undecided?

[conite]

You can't seriously believe they don't know their plans for the next year and are just sitting there undecided?

Yes I do. I think it's pending whatever resolution (or not) they hammer out with BlackBerry.

[RK_BB]

Yes I do. I think it's pending whatever resolution (or not) they hammer out with BlackBerry.

Well then they have until MWC to figure out whether they are coming or going otherwise how exactly is anybody at this company going to face journalists? Or perhaps, they won't exhibit at all in which case it will be interesting to hear what you will have to say about it.