[csiguy1]

The OS may be a little outdated but it gets the daily job of phone calls, email, and text done better than any other phone that I know of and that is what I do most.

[csiguy1]

I own a Bold 9700 and a Tour and both are great phones. I think that the Bold 9700 is the best BB out there but the new Tour will be doing its best to catch up.

[berryite]

no "mass movement", but here is some data showing rim losing ground. interesting to note that android more than doubled market share in one quarter.

No mass movement? Wow. The iPhone has gone from zero to 24 million users in two years and you don't consider that a mass movement? LOL. I can't believe what I'm reading here.

RIM is 15 years old and it's taken them that long to build a customer base (which is shrinking as shown by your own chart) of some 40 million users.

Apple has grown to 1/2 RIM's size in two years. And that's not a mass movement? Wow. Breathtaking. Just breathtaking. Please tell us you don't do analytic or forecasting work in the technology field.

[Macneil_S4]

The OS may be a little outdated but it gets the daily job of phone calls, email, and text done better than any other phone that I know of and that is what I do most.

This is what I basically said earlier.
It gets the job done plus some awesome apps,
and most of all its secure as he!!

[qbnkelt]

no "mass movement", but here is some data showing rim losing ground. interesting to note that android more than doubled market share in one quarter.

here's an article:


http://http://www.dailyfinance.com/s...hare/19353103/

Thank you! now to disect that data...

Edit: Is the link broken? I can't open it. Maybe it's because of security at work????

[TheComebackKidd]

No mass movement? Wow. The iPhone has gone from zero to 24 million users in two years and you don't consider that a mass movement? LOL. I can't believe what I'm reading here.

RIM is 15 years old and it's taken them that long to build a customer base (which is shrinking as shown by your own chart) of some 40 million users.

Apple has grown to 1/2 RIM's size in two years. And that's not a mass movement? Wow. Breathtaking. Just breathtaking. Please tell us you don't do analytic or forecasting work in the technology field.

You REALLY don't like it when people don't share the same outlook as you, don't you?

Apple has grown fast, yes, but this chart only PROVES that RIM isn't going anywhere in the next year. And with what's potentially coming down the pipe from RIM (see the webkit browser preview vid on youtube), there's no reason the suggest they will continue to lose ground. And if they do, there's now way to predict RIM will lose it to Apple.

[TheComebackKidd]

I hope you're talking about BES when you talk about security because AFAIK, there is no security with BIS.

Wouldn't BIS just have whatever security is in place by RIM, as opposed to the security put on by whoever is running your particular BES server?

[Macneil_S4]

I hope you're talking about BES when you talk about security because AFAIK, there is no security with BIS.

Hmm actually I WAS, and I'm sure
theres some type of security in place
for BIS as well. They aren't just gonna let all
the information go to millions of phones every
day with nothing in place

[StormJH1]

No mass movement? Wow. The iPhone has gone from zero to 24 million users in two years and you don't consider that a mass movement? LOL. I can't believe what I'm reading here.

RIM is 15 years old and it's taken them that long to build a customer base (which is shrinking as shown by your own chart) of some 40 million users.

Apple has grown to 1/2 RIM's size in two years. And that's not a mass movement? Wow. Breathtaking. Just breathtaking. Please tell us you don't do analytic or forecasting work in the technology field.

The iPhone is wildly successful from a marketing standpoint, but most of your factual assertions as to why that is are worthless. To say that RIM is 15 years old and that they should therefore have X number of consumers compared to Apple is ridiculous. Apple has been around for much longer than RIM--they had time to basically fall completely apart and then have a rebirth (with the iMac and iBook) before anybody had heard of "RIM" or knew what a smartphone was. How was your 3G connection back in 2001? So to talk about all this momentum and brand loyalty that should have accumulated doesn't really work when the class of device we're really talking about didn't exist from a popular culture standpoint until about 3 years ago.

People seem to have pretty limited memory when it comes to this stuff. If you go back to 2003-05, the must-have portable device that everyone was talking about was not a cellphone, it was a PDA, and Palm was the pioneer.

Apple popularized the concept of a "smartphone" and convinced the masses why they would need one. However, my view of that is that it while Apple is clearly a competitor, they also opened up huge new markets to consumers of ALL smartphones, including BlackBerry. Yes, the BB operating system (and browser) does not appear to have evolved much over the type of thing you would've seen on a Palm Pilot or Blackberry 5-10 years ago. But under that argument, I don't think Windows 7 has "fundamentally" changed over what Windows 2000 did a decade ago.

The device technology in BlackBerry's has significantly improved, but you have acknowledge that there are consequences of taking an entire operating system and just blowing it up because you feel somebody else is gaining an edge. A lot of older BlackBerry users are accustomed to a BB operating system and like how it functions, and you abandon all of that good will if you just completely scrap what you have.

[berryite]

The OS may be a little outdated but it gets the daily job of phone calls, email, and text done better than any other phone that I know of and that is what I do most.

You and I can agree on that but it doesn't change the momentum.

I really can't see me buying an iPhone. It really doesn't do anything for me. But the numbers are pretty clear that RIM needs to get a strategy to stay on top of their game otherwise the OP's question is simply academic. And the OP's original question was to ask if RIM will still be on top a year from now.

When you have a competitor who has grown to 1/2 your size in just a couple of years, you have a big problem on your hands. Apple's momentum isn't slowing. It took RIM 15 years to get to their size. Apple has 1/2'd that in TWO years! RIM is losing customers, Apple is growing fast. Any person who has done any type of market forecast work in the business world knows that all of this spells trouble.

Another thing to consider ... Apple is restricted to only one carrier in the USA (AT&T). RIM does business with all 4 major US cell carriers: Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T, and Sprint. IF Apple had access to all 4 US carriers, I daresay, they'd have already passed RIM in subscribers.

Scary numbers for RIM. I'm still a RIM guy but these are numbers they better not be fooling themselves about or BlackBerry's Waterloo may not just be the city in Canada where they are headquaartered.

[berryite]

Apple has been around for much longer than RIM--they had time to basically fall completely apart and then have a rebirth (with the iMac and iBook) before anybody had heard of "RIM" or knew what a smartphone was.

Talking about Apple's core business is silly. It has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

We're talking about smartphones.

Apple has gone into the smartphone business. They did that a couple of years ago. In a short amount of time, they have captured 1/2 the market size of RIM. Their momentum is growing, RIM's is shrinking.

If you think this isn't important, I don't know what to tell you.

[F0nage]

They're not even in the same market place, why do you want to say Apple is a competitor?

Apple has no penetration in government, banking, etc. Apple is marketing to media consumers. RIM markets to business users.

[F0nage]

Actually, you're right about BIS having some type of security but BES has the maximum level of security on BBs. I was wrong on my part.

I don't know about you but I don't care for BIS. If you're using data like surfing the web, it all goes through RIM's servers. If you get a BB outage, you cannot use that data.

So use Opera.

[Macneil_S4]

BB outages also affect email service. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think they also affect apps too.

I do use BIS, and yes the outages do
affect email, etc...
But hey, they don't happen often
and the phone itself still works incase you
need to contact someone godforbid within
that time...

[F0nage]

Email definitely, it's a double-edged sword. Best in the industry...when it works. Which until very recently was always. Now people are a little jumpy because of some bad outages.

Increasingly, apps are going direct to the net and not using BIS.

[Jude526]

I don't understand how people think RIM will lose popularity. I am very happy with what this device does. I am not an iphone fan. I am not an Apple fan period. I prefer Microsoft. I like my notebook. But for my smartphone it has to be Blackberry I don't like The Droid. BB suits me just fine for what I use it for. I don't have concerns about RIM. I see a lot of BB users and everyone I talk to has the same opinion: they love their BB

[berryite]

They're not even in the same market place, why do you want to say Apple is a competitor?

Apple has no penetration in government, banking, etc. Apple is marketing to media consumers. RIM markets to business users.

RIM can't survive solely marketing to "government and banking." BTW, interesting that your business world is restricted to just to "government and banking."

I know several large companies who would not allow their employees to use iPhones just a year ago. Today iPhones proliferate at some of these companies.

It is true that Apple markets to consumers. But while the VP of marketing of ABC Enterprises might be a corporate guy, he's also a consumer. And when he starts using the same phone his wife and his kids are using because it's perceived as a hipper device for whatever reason, the old technology is gonna be on its way out.

There is a phrase in corporate marketing ... "perception is reality." When the perception becomes that the iPhone is better than the BlackBerry, you better be careful.

The pages of history are filled with names of manufacturers who once ruled the cell phone business with marketshare numbers that blew the rest of the industry away. Palm used to own the smartphone market. Ask yourself where they are today.

[qbnkelt]

I think the original statement was that there was a "mass majority" of users going from RIM to Apple. The graphs show (I haven't been able to read the article) that Aple had a .2% gain of the marketshare.

Not sure what that translates to in terms of cold, hard moolah but I would not say that .2% gain is significant over any one quarter. If it continues or escalates, I would worry.

Now - what the article doesn't show are the demographics of the .2% Apple gain. If that Apple gain/RIM loss centered around RIM's core base, then RIM should be casting a wary eye. However, I have not seen any instances of RIM's core awarding contracts to Apple. So - the core remains steady, as far as I can tell.

The consumer market is fickle. Trends come and go. But the core base is where the attention needs to be if one is going to consider a "mass majority" going to another platform.

I'm more than certain that the RIM development team and business team have noticed Apple and the Droid gains. How they respond will be interesting. But until such a time that RIM's core user can trust and embrace another platform, RIM will continue to dominate in its base.

If I were with RIM, I'd say that the webkit andn Flash are imperative. A revamped OS to go along with them would be needed. However, I wouldn't be cutting pink slips just yet.

[F0nage]

RIM can't survive solely marketing to "government and banking." BTW, interesting that your business world is restricted to just to "government and banking."

Did you see where I said "government, banking, etc." or did you stop reading after banking. That "etc." means to include sectors similar to the ones I mentioned.

I know several large companies who would not allow their employees to use iPhones just a year ago. Today iPhones proliferate at some of these companies.

So what? Are they buying iPhones for their employees, or just letting their employees use their personal iPhones? Guess what? As soon as some virus or vulnerability like the SSH debacle that occurred recently results in loss of corporate data, the guy who permitted Apples for his business is going to lose his a$$.

It is true that Apple markets to consumers. But while the VP of marketing of ABC Enterprises might be a corporate guy, he's also a consumer. And when he starts using the same phone his wife and his kids are using because it's perceived as a hipper device for whatever reason, the old technology is gonna be on its way out.

Wrong. Until ANY platform can come up with the infrastructure and total package that RIM provides to businesses, old technology will rule.

There is a phrase in corporate marketing ... "perception is reality." When the perception becomes that the iPhone is better than the BlackBerry, you better be careful.

There are many more stupid people than there are intelligent ones, who cares what they think? I still buy and use what I know works, based on technical merit and not marketing. Besides, I really don't give a damn, I'm not a RIM shareholder or fanboy.
But trying to compare an overpriced multimedia brick to a business phone and say it's any kind of competition is just wrong and will not be tolerated on this forum

The pages of history are filled with names of manufacturers who once ruled the cell phone business with marketshare numbers that blew the rest of the industry away. Palm used to own the smartphone market. Ask yourself where they are today.

You and your buddies have a real problem when it comes to understanding that the landscape then and now can't be compared. Whoever starts something always grows the most and gets the most market share, that's simple. The argument you're trying to make here and the others about Android, Apple growth, etc. are disconnected from reality.

Let's see where the toy phones are in 15 years.

[berryite]

I wouldn't be cutting pink slips just yet.

Good thoughts.

I don't think the questions is "can they" but "will they."

RIM can retake the momentum. The problem as I see it is that they've fallen into corporate laziness. They are too big, too fat and move too slowly.

As an example and as a personal pet peeve ... I (and many others) hate the new RIM 5.0 threaded sms. RIM's staff know they have a problem. They've written bad code. This could be fixed in a few weeks. They don't care. This not caring comes from a culture of corporate laziness. This will kill them if not addressed.

RIM are competing against a man (Steve Jobs) who has made a career out of being a marketing genius. Say what you want about Apple and Jobs, there is no denying it ... Steve Jobs is a marketing genius.

RIM are in a tough fight. And they better figure it out.

[F0nage]

RIM is not competing against Steve Jobs.

Steve jobs may be competing against RIM, but I'm pretty sure nobody cares. I know I don't.

[wmp.dll]

Coming from a Pre -> BlackBerry, it felt kind of like a step backwards. The first few days the BlackBerry OS confused the **** out of me. But once I figured it out its not so bad. I think it could use an update, but we'll see what the boys in Waterloo do.

[berryite]

Let's see where the toy phones are in 15 years.

I overlooked the childish insults.

15 years? You're talking about an industry where 15 months is now a lifetime.

Meet me back here in 15 months and we can pick up where we left off. The trends are not reversable. But if they are not reversed, the future will be dim for RIM.

[qbnkelt]

Good thoughts.

I don't think the questions is "can they" but "will they."

RIM can retake the momentum. The problem as I see it is that they've fallen into corporate laziness. They are too big, too fat and move too slowly.

As an example and as a personal pet peeve ... I (and many others) hate the new RIM 5.0 threaded sms. RIM's staff know they have a problem. They've written bad code. This could be fixed in a few weeks. They don't care. This not caring comes from a culture of corporate laziness. This will kill them if not addressed.

RIM are competing against a man (Steve Jobs) who has made a career out of being a marketing genius. Say what you want about Apple and Jobs, there is no denying it ... Steve Jobs is a marketing genius.

RIM are in a tough fight. And they better figure it out.

Oh, I think RIM knows that they've got to step up. The new webkit and the inclusion of Flash will go a long way towards fixing their one major weakness.

But really, I really don't see myself moving away from RIM and embracing another platform any time soon.
Let's see what the new iPhone brings, but they'd better fix their issues, including that horrendous battery, before I would even *begin* to entertain leaving RIM for Apple. I was looking forward to the iPad and was greatly disappointed. If the new iPhone simply brings more apps, more flash and little substance, I won't even consider gettingn one, not even for 29 days.

I love my berries.

[berryite]

RIM is not competing against Steve Jobs.

Steve jobs may be competing against RIM, but I'm pretty sure nobody cares. I know I don't.

Out of curiosity, did your dad work in corporate marketing for General Motors back in the 70s when nobody cared about a company named Toyota?