Interesting Forbes Article
Thought I would share this article in Forbes about RIM and their quarter. Pay particular note to the article talking about RIM having approval problems with AT&T and Verizon... wish there was more specific information.
RIMM: Will Wide Bold 9900 Launch Save The August Quarter? - Eric Savitz - The Tech Trade - Forbes
Here's the article in case people don't want to open the link:
RIMM: Will Wide Bold 9900 Launch Save The August Quarter?
Aug. 9 2011 - 2:42 pm | 1,070 views | 0 recommendations | 0 comments
Guest post written by Tero Kuittinen
Tero Kuittinen: Think bold.
The good news for Research In Motion is that it now seems that the most important new Blackberry model, the Bold 9900, is slated to debut in the U.S., Europe, India and the Middle East in August. The Bold 9900 arrivals to the U.K., India, Qatar and some other Mideast/Asian markets now seem poised to take place in mid-August. Many of these launches were widely expected to take place in September.
Some of the European, Middle Eastern and Asian launches of this key Blackberry device now appear likely to hit 2-4 weeks ahead of expectations. At the same time, the Verizon and AT&T launches of the new Bold may slip beyond August. This may indicate that persistent whispers about RIMM having some trouble with the approval processes of the two largest U.S. carriers could be well-founded. T-Mobile seems prepared to roll out the Bold by end of August.
Nevertheless, the latest launch data points from U.K. look positive. Vodafone is now tagging August 12 as the Bold 9900 launch date, as is Play.com. Another major European web retailer, Phones4U, debuts the 9900 on August 18; Amazon.co.uk on August 22. Carphone Warehouse and Best Buy UK also announced August 18 launches for the device a few days ago. In the U.K., the early launch support is wide; Vodafone, O2, Orange and T-Mobile all seem to be gearing for August sales. This clustering of U.K. retailers and carrier support is unusually broad � most smartphones roll out with staggered schedules, major Web retailers sometimes following carrier launches with 4-8 week delays.
Apparent lack of U.K. exclusivity deals seems to contribute to high launch prices � Vodafone and Orange are pricing the Bold 9900 at the �35 mark, which is basically where new dual-core Android devices with 4-inch screens debut. This is going to be a test of Blackberry brand loyalty; but I believe the U.K. operators genuinely expect that the notably thinner build and more powerful processor performance of the Bold will generate strong upgrade interest. Nokia�s market share dive is particularly acute in the U.K., creating a vacuum in the premium QWERTY device slot right now.
The Indian launch of the Bold 9900 now appears to be firming up for mid-August and the Qatar launch is in the same frame. The international picture is not uniformly positive � the Optus launch in Australia is now pegged at September 1 and the Vodacom launch in South Africa may or may not happen by the third week of August; it seems that the Vodacom testing has stretched into early August. But early September for Australia and South Africa would be OK if the August launch targets for Europe, Mideast and Asia hold. RIMM�s Bold 9900 global roll-out looks broader than what RIMM managed with its earlier Bold models � which I believe means the autumn outlook for RIMM may not be quite as grim as the current consensus holds.
Nailing August launches for India, Middle East and Europe could be pivotal for RIMM. The company had strong EU and Asian traction around last Christmas, but has since suffered grievously from launch delays of its new models. Blackberry is still the leading smartphone vendor of the past six months in markets like South Africa and Brazil � even with several delays, the new devices might have real international appeal at least for the next two quarters.
Bears have effectively crafted a �death spiral� narrative around RIMM. The storyline revolves around the new product launches failing to offset sales erosion of the aging RIMM product line. Considering the Android traction at the low-end smartphone market and Europe�s likely slide into a deep recession next winter, the bear narrative has a decent chance of panning out in the long term. However, there is a clear possibility that RIMM can deliver autumn performance that defies skeptics in the short term � and that scenario in my view requires earlier and wider than expected shipments of the 9900.
The key features of the Bold 9900 are a larger display and a 1.2 GHz processor � upgrades which are missing from Nokia�s new E-series launches. Only RIMM and Nokia sold more than 10 million units of QWERTY smartphones in Q1 2011 � and Nokia�s sales in this category have gone into tailspin over the past quarter. RIMM is facing a powerful challenge from Android QWERTY devices retailing below $200. But due to Nokia�s collapse in the category it used to dominate, RIMM may have a window to make a real mark with the new Bold and Curve launches before the Android tide swamps it. More than a quarter of smartphone sales are made up by QWERTY devices; this remains a very important growth category in Latin America, Asia and Africa.
What deserves close scrutiny here is the geographic footprint. RIMM badly needs to deliver both volume and ASP surprises for the November quarter. August quarter volumes are expected to dip below 11.5 million units and ASP is expected to fade below $300. Verizon and AT&T launches of the Bold 9900 appear a step late. However, it now looks like RIMM might be able to avoid a complete August wipe-out as the new Bold Touch is poised to ship 2-3 weeks earlier than anticipated in Europe, Middle East and Asia. Even a small positive surprise could have a meaningful impact on the share price, as expectations have been tumbling and investor revulsion following several product delays is almost palpable. It is clear that RIMM made a series of bad execution mistakes regarding the roll-out of the new devices; these mistakes may turn out to be fatal in the long run. But the short-term question is whether the company could deliver slightly better than expected fall performance.
In my view, the most likely way for the company to achieve this is to bring volume sales of the flagship Bold 9900 to full bloom by the beginning of September in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia. The carrier contacts I have talked to have little faith in the new Torch devices. The new Curve could be an important volume model for next winter � but due to its high ASP and earlier launches, the new Bold 9900 is the make-or-break device when it comes to generating revenue growth between August and November quarters. This is going to be tough as the consumer spending outlook withers across the globe � yet not impossible with Bold 9900 now appearing to hit before the back-to-school season and some aid from the deeply wounded Nokia.
Tero Kuittinen is an independent mobile telecommunications industry stock analyst.