[app_Developer]

Interesting.

Marketing sure seems to be be-all and end-all for lot of folks.

Apparently it's emotionally easier to give Apple credit for hiring great marketing talent, than it is to give them credit for making a phone that completely changed the industry.

Both involve great skill, so I don't know why the former is easier for people to swallow.

[app_Developer]

What is different about the app gap between then and now?

Most of the apps that people want on their phones today didn't even exist back then. Apple and Google both created a completely new class of apps.

I remember this discussion in early 2008. Apple had hardly any users, but they had an SDK and app store that were so far beyond the primitive tools on Symbian and BBOS that developers were willing to take that risk. The reason is because we could make apps for iPhone and Android that we could not make on Symbian or BBOS.

OTOH, BB10 also had hardly any users, and on top of that there wasn't a single app that you could possibly imagine on BB10 that you couldn't already make on iOS or Android. In fact, the BB10 SDK was actually way behind the other two. So we had no reason to take a bet on a tiny user base when we could work on the same app or better on the platforms that had massive user bases.

[Nguyen1]

I give the current app ecosystem one more decade, if even that. Then bye bye apple and google. Something new will come, just watch. These things always go in cycles.

Atari vs Nintendo? Nintendo vs Playstation? Playstation vs XBox?

Palm vs BlackBerry? VHS vs Betamax? HD DVD vs Bluray?

What's so important to us now is mere history just a few years from now, and everyone can chuckle at what naive fools we were back in the day...

The Guide is definitive. Reality is frequently inaccurate.

[markmall]

Interesting.

Marketing sure seems to be be-all and end-all for lot of folks.

No, it is absolutely nothing for some, including present management. It doesn't matter how good or bad the product is if no one knows about it and why it might appeal to them. I don't care if they didn't talk about this in Losing the Signal. Sometimes people are so close to a problem they can't see what is obvious from afar.

Could BB10 have failed anyway? Yes. But it could never have succeeded without additional marketing support. Same with the Priv and the DTEK phones for that matter.

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[Soulstream]

I give the current app ecosystem one more decade, if even that. Then bye bye apple and google. Something new will come, just watch. These things always go in cycles.

Atari vs Nintendo? Nintendo vs Playstation? Playstation vs XBox?

Palm vs BlackBerry? VHS vs Betamax? HD DVD vs Bluray?

What's so important to us now is mere history just a few years from now, and everyone can chuckle at what naive fools we were back in the day...

The Guide is definitive. Reality is frequently inaccurate.

Say that to the desktop market which has been a Windows vs Mac vs Linux distros for over 2 decades now.

[app_Developer]

No, it is absolutely nothing for some, including present management. It doesn't matter how good or bad the product is if no one knows about it and why it might appeal to them. I don't care if they didn't talk about this in Losing the Signal. Sometimes people are so close to a problem they can't see what is obvious from afar.

Could BB10 have failed anyway? Yes. But it could never have succeeded without additional marketing support. Same with the Priv and the DTEK phones for that matter.

How much would you have spent on marketing? Once you start putting real numbers into the discussion, you'll realize how the economics just don't work.

Do you think BB should have spent $100M more? $500M more? What are we talking here?

[markmall]

How much would you have spent on marketing? Once you start putting real numbers into the discussion, you'll realize how the economics just don't work.

Do you think BB should have spent $100M more? $500M more? What are we talking here?

This is too much of a literal repeat of the same debate months ago. It's getting too tiresome. I just want the record to be made that Not everyone agrees that BB10 had to be a failure even after Chen took over. There are some that believe that there was an ample market for this operating system even without certain popular apps. The big failure was not educating the marketplace as to the existence of the operating system and what it does so well.

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[app_Developer]

This is too much of a literal repeat of the same debate months ago. It's getting too tiresome. I just want the record to be made that Not everyone agrees that BB10 had to be a failure even after Chen took over. There are some that believe that there was an ample market for this operating system even without certain popular apps. The big failure was not educating the marketplace as to the existence of the operating system and what it does so well.

Not everyone believes that Neil Armstrong walked on the moon either. The record very clearly reflects that also.

I agree this is tiresome, until people start actually talking about the real numbers that a shrinking company like BB could have actually applied to this, and what that would have done to their financial position.

[co4nd]

Say that to the desktop market which has been a Windows vs Mac vs Linux distros for over 2 decades now.

More like 3 decades.

[markmall]

Not everyone believes that Neil Armstrong walked on the moon either. The record very clearly reflects that also.

I agree this is tiresome, until people start actually talking about the real numbers that a shrinking company like BB could have actually applied to this, and what that would have done to their financial position.

You might be blind, but Blackberry tried to do it. They were just too half-a--ed about it. So you're claiming that this is as clear as the moon landing is pure bunk. Management thought that they might be able to succeed with BB10 even after the very bad rollout. They released five or so new phones and even advertised some of them to some small degree. The notion tossed around that Chen was just working off a bin of parts at the warehouse and knew BB10 would fail is ludicrous.

[MrScotian]

For me, and my family, and my relatives, and my friends, all of them, the reason bb10 failed is simple - nobody ever heard of it. Or even knew BlackBerry phones were around.

THIS is the real reason IMO. Sell phones and devs will come - can't have the devs without the sales. I still run into people who think that BlackBerry died out years ago. I've said here many times that I have never seen a BB10 phone ad and now I can say the same about the Blandroid phones too. BlackBerry just doesn't value advertising at all and this is a major mgmt flaw.

[markmall]

THIS is the real reason IMO. Sell phones and devs will come - can't have the devs without the sales. I still run into people who think that BlackBerry died out years ago. I've said here many times that I have never seen a BB10 phone ad and now I can say the same about the Blandroid phones too. BlackBerry just doesn't value advertising at all and this is a major mgmt flaw.

Thank you, sir! Thank you! Everyone else is living in a little Crackberry prison of their own making. No one knows any of this exists. Watch the Mercury go down in flames because you can only order it online and no one ever sees it on store shelves or in advertising.

[conite]

The notion tossed around that Chen was just working off a bin of parts at the warehouse and knew BB10 would fail is ludicrous.

No one said that.

The fact was BB10 had been declared a failed product and then Chen, a software expert, was hired to pivot the company.

Devices continued to be sold to stay relevant in the enterprise space, and turn the wheels, while software ramped up.

All of the devices, save the Passport, stayed on the same SoC because of excess parts, and the ease of development.

I'm sure BlackBerry would have been happy if the devices took off after Chen came on board, but they weren't going to throw any more mega dollars at it, as they needed their resources elsewhere - that was already decided.

[app_Developer]

Devices continued to be sold to stay relevant in the enterprise space, and turn the wheels, while software ramped up.

Plus to burn down the hundreds of millions in purchase commitments Chen inherited.

[markmall]

Plus to burn down the hundreds of millions in purchase commitments Chen inherited.

Right, right, right. Chen's big pivot and all that. Do we have any evidence of this big purchase commitment(s)?

And if this was the only reason why Chen continued with BB10, how do you explain the Passport that had all different parts?

[conite]

Right, right, right. Chen's big pivot and all that. Do we have any evidence of this big purchase commitment(s)?

And if this was the only reason why Chen continued with BB10, how do you explain the Passport that had all different parts?

The 801 drivers were already done, the device was in the pike, and they thought that they would be able to sell a small run into the medical and engineering channels with minimal marketing.

DTEK60 / Z30

[markmall]

The 801 drivers were already done, the device was in the pike, and they thought that they would be able to sell a small run into the medical and engineering channels with minimal marketing.

DTEK60 / Z30

So that particular device he thought might be profitable but all the others he was just working off of these theoretical parts commitments?

[MrScotian]

Thank you, sir! Thank you! Everyone else is living in a little Crackberry prison of their own making. No one knows any of this exists. Watch the Mercury go down in flames because you can only order it online and no one ever sees it on store shelves or in advertising.

I definitely agree with you and it'll be even worse than this if those few stores that decide to carry it continue to actively dissuade people from buying a BlackBerry phone in favor of an iPhone or pure Android device. I want BlackBerry to succeed, but I just don't see a future for them piggy backing on two 3rd party companies that have no vested interest or need for BlackBerry to be a success.

[app_Developer]

Right, right, right. Chen's big pivot and all that. Do we have any evidence of this big purchase commitment(s)?

BlackBerry (BBRY) Purchase Obligations Will Limit Takeout Premium, Says Pacific Crest

(I actually think Faucette overestimated this, but it was still very likely in the billions and then down to hundreds of millions by the end of that FY)

By end of FY2014, BBRY started explicitly separating them out in their reporting. You can see that Chen reduced that liability dramatically from FY14 - FY17.

And if this was the only reason why Chen continued with BB10, how do you explain the Passport that had all different parts?

Do you know what a purchase commitment is?

[conite]

So that particular device he thought might be profitable but all the others he was just working off of these theoretical parts commitments?

No. BlackBerry had already committed to the device.

[Troy Tiscareno]

So that particular device he thought might be profitable but all the others he was just working off of these theoretical parts commitments?

Do you think Ford or Honda or GM designs a car, builds the tooling for the body, retools the production line for production of the new car, and THEN starts calling all of their suppliers for all of the parts and materials for this new model? Not a chance.

With manufacturing this complex, plans are made years in advance, and purchase commitments for smartphone parts have to be made at least 18 months in advance (usually closer to 2 years) - because if your company doesn't agree to purchase those parts, then they'll be sold to another company who will, and MAYBE there will be enough left over for your company's needs and maybe not. Can you imagine buying all of the screens, memory, motherboards, batteries, etc. for 500,000 phones and then only getting 50,000 SoCs, because you didn't commit to 500,000, and there were only 50k left over? What are you going to do with all of those other parts?

The smartphone business is COMPLICATED and EXPENSIVE and you have to predict your sales 2 years in advance to have any chance at a decent market position (and the leaders are VERY good at predicting sales!), and even then, if you aren't a leader, you won't have the best parts available to you because the leaders will buy out the entire run of those parts - leaving the small companies with the left-overs.

If there was a solution for BB, I'm sure someone at BB would have figured it out. Those guys getting $250K - $2M/year in salary are actually pretty smart people who understand their parts of the business very well. But there was no real solution - BB was many years too late to be successful.

You could be the best racecar driver in the world, with the best car and best tires, but if you start a 500 mile race 2 hours late, and ever other car has 170 laps on you, it is IMPOSSIBLE to win the race. Heck, the race will be over before your car is even warmed up. That's the situation BB put themselves in back in 2005-2008 - and then they failed to react with any intelligence until 2010, and by then, the white flag (indicating the final lap of the race) was already waving, and BB was just STARTING to consider building a racecar. And the "car" they finally got out on the track in 2013 couldn't make it around the track without breaking down - their "car" wasn't reliable enough until 2014 - but the stadium was long empty, the victory parties long over, and the history written.

[markmall]

Do you think Ford or Honda or GM designs a car, builds the tooling for the body, retools the production line for production of the new car, and THEN starts calling all of their suppliers for all of the parts and materials for this new model? Not a chance.

With manufacturing this complex, plans are made years in advance, and purchase commitments for smartphone parts have to be made at least 18 months in advance (usually closer to 2 years) - because if your company doesn't agree to purchase those parts, then they'll be sold to another company who will, and MAYBE there will be enough left over for your company's needs and maybe not. Can you imagine buying all of the screens, memory, motherboards, batteries, etc. for 500,000 phones and then only getting 50,000 SoCs, because you didn't commit to 500,000, and there were only 50k left over? What are you going to do with all of those other parts?

The smartphone business is COMPLICATED and EXPENSIVE and you have to predict your sales 2 years in advance to have any chance at a decent market position (and the leaders are VERY good at predicting sales!), and even then, if you aren't a leader, you won't have the best parts available to you because the leaders will buy out the entire run of those parts - leaving the small companies with the left-overs.

If there was a solution for BB, I'm sure someone at BB would have figured it out. Those guys getting $250K - $2M/year in salary are actually pretty smart people who understand their parts of the business very well. But there was no real solution - BB was many years too late to be successful.

You could be the best racecar driver in the world, with the best car and best tires, but if you start a 500 mile race 2 hours late, and ever other car has 170 laps on you, it is IMPOSSIBLE to win the race. Heck, the race will be over before your car is even warmed up. That's the situation BB put themselves in back in 2005-2008 - and then they failed to react with any intelligence until 2010, and by then, the white flag (indicating the final lap of the race) was already waving, and BB was just STARTING to consider building a racecar. And the "car" they finally got out on the track in 2013 couldn't make it around the track without breaking down - their "car" wasn't reliable enough until 2014 - but the stadium was long empty, the victory parties long over, and the history written.

Too didactic. The smartphone business is "COMPLICATED and EXPENSIVE"? Oh, I never thought of that. Now I completely believe you.

[markmall]

If there was a solution for BB, I'm sure someone at BB would have figured it out. Those guys getting $250K - $2M/year in salary are actually pretty smart people who understand their parts of the business very well. But there was no real solution - BB was many years too late to be successful.

So guys getting $250K or more don't make poor business decisions? Really? Does this apply to Blackberry or the entire world? How about Blackberry before Chen came on board? Do you think that Heins and his people were making more than $250K per year? Then why did they make such poor decisions?

[anon(6125289)]

Chen came into the picture and cut the cancer of blackberry 10 from the company. If they kept going, they would have been bankrupt in a year. Blackberry would have been better if BB10 never even existed and they swapped over to Android earlier when their brand still had some credibility. Blackberry 10 under no circumstances was going to succeed. Post 2011 it never had a chance....

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[anon(6125289)]

But sure. I wish blackberry kept pushing BB 10. It wouldn't be enough for a whole lot of people to lose their jobs..... Let's make sure everyone lost their jobs.....

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